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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 391

Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:50:31 PM | message detail
...And another.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 9:50:51 PM | message detail
Okay, Jesus Christ Jill, I think that might be enough. o.O
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 9:50:53 PM | message detail
Also any illusions of Peach being anywhere near the Big 4 Mario Characters should be dead, unless Jill has boosted like crazy. Peach = Wario.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 9:50:53 PM | message detail
I don't think Peach's day vote will matter - Jill's is just so bad that it'll be hard for her to be any worse.

hey look, a comeback. no surprise here.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:51:00 PM | message detail
OMG comeback.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 9:51:42 PM | message detail
Jill says she means business with that cut.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Alyssa Milano (#44)
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/16/2006 9:51:46 PM | message detail
I'm happy just knowing that Peach isn't the joke fodder that people in this topic expected her to be, to be honest. Those were the most annoying arguments in awhile.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 9:52:17 PM | message detail
Peach isnt going to get quite the day vote Kairi got.

The combination of Jill's awful day vote combined with Peach's day vote should be enough to produce something similar to what Kairi got. It wouldn't be all Peach, because she'll have help, but it's still going to be very ugly.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/16/2006 9:52:30 PM | message detail
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

TG
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2006 9:52:39 PM | message detail
Hmm... does Jill have a shot afterall? It's now closer %-wise than Kairi/Claire, and I'd expect Kairi's day vote to be better than Peach's, after Riku/Yoshi.
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Take off every sig.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 9:52:40 PM | message detail
I never thought Peach would be joke fodder, but I'll wait until she meets Tifa on crack before making a complete decision on that <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 9:53:22 PM | message detail
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

...XD

Sorry, I was going to type up a real response, but since you likely aren't being serious I'll just leave it at that.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 9:53:50 PM | message detail
Peach is getting the day vote, but it wont be the turn around Kairi had. While Kairi gained 4800 vote swing because of it, I see Peach getting closer to 2500. Still more than enough.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:54:08 PM | message detail
The Nintendo Hour is running out of steam, and the night vote is coming.

...I find it very strange that Nintendo does so well in the first hour or so of the poll, and then sucks until morning. This seems to have started only with the new poll time (I think FF/SMB and LoZ/FF were the first real occurrences), but it's still strange because Nintendo characters generally do poorly once the (diluted) second night votes hits in the late evening, until the end of the match. Then explode at the start of a new one.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 9:54:14 PM | message detail
From Tequilla Gundam Posted 10/17/2006 12:52:30 AM
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

TG


What the hell kind of reasoning is that?

Leon is a high midcarder. Jill has disappointed more with every year she's had a chance to stink it up.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/16/2006 9:54:28 PM | message detail
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

I don't think you can really compare those two like that. Leon has a way better day vote than Jill for the simple fact that he's in RE4.
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Tifa vs. The Boss / Bracket: Tifa/ Vote: Abstain (34/35)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Jill / Vote: Peach
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 9:54:47 PM | message detail
Peach is getting the day vote, but it wont be the turn around Kairi had. While Kairi gained 4800 vote swing because of it, I see Peach getting closer to 2500. Still more than enough.

You can't really measure it as a solid vote total. It's all relative to what jill's percentage is when the day vote hits.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 9:55:11 PM | message detail
the early voters just love them some Nintendo. given the way the board acts about Nintendo and their penchant for bracket voting, I'm not too too surprised.
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xyzzy
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 9:55:50 PM | message detail
He has a point Bowser did almost nothing with the day vote againist Leon.

Now Leon has Nintendo Power behind him as well, and a much better day vote than Jill but Nintendo's day vote isnt near as potent as say Halo and KH.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 9:55:58 PM | message detail
Peach wins that update! Good deal.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:56:03 PM | message detail
Wh-wh-

...Oh, that was actually a lead increase. Thought for a second Jill had shaved off 70 votes in five minutes.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 9:56:10 PM | message detail
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

Cute.



Does anybody know what topic it was when we got to see the second Mario-favorite poll? I think we kept up with the changes it made during the day, and I'm curious how Peach did on that.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Alyssa Milano (#44)
Yesmar | Posted 10/16/2006 9:56:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, almost all close matches have had Nintendo favorites so far, so Nintendo's done pretty well with the opening votes.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 9:56:31 PM | message detail
the early voters just love them some Nintendo. given the way the board acts about Nintendo and their penchant for bracket voting, I'm not too too surprised.

I'm more inclined to believe that the first half hour of a match is primarily a taste of what the day vote ill be like (excluding the first five or ten minutes of course).
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 9:57:28 PM | message detail
He has a point Bowser did almost nothing with the day vote againist Leon.

First, Bowser's day vote isn't exactly the typical Nintendo day vote. He tends to do a bit worse with it than most Nintendo characters. Second, Leon was featured in Resident Evil 4, which is both the most popular and most casual game of the series. Jill has clearly shown that her day vote is pretty awful -- losing it to Sheena will do that -- and she follows the typical Resident Evil character of a really good night vote and a pretty bad day vote.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/16/2006 9:57:35 PM | message detail
Eh, KH day vote =/= Nintendo day vote. Bowser lost the day vote to Leon, so I expect Peach to lose it to Jill.

Cute.


You too, sweetie.

TG
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:03 PM | message detail
Remember that Bowser is one of the worst Ninty characters when it comes to the day vote. Peach just screams day vote to me, if only because I feel the night voters have much more disdain for her.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:04 PM | message detail
He has a point Bowser did almost nothing with the day vote againist Leon.

Now Leon has Nintendo Power behind him as well, and a much better day vote than Jill but Nintendo's day vote isnt near as potent as say Halo and KH.


It really dpeends on the nintendo character... their day votes vary greatly.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:11 PM | message detail
Yeah, but we're talking about the first 8-10k votes here. I would think that's too many for the board to influence much, but I guess not. And, heh, Jill trails by 424 55 minutes into the match, and Claire trailed by 437.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:28 PM | message detail
It's all about the much earlier time. Even in the east coast, the poll isn't starting that late. A lot of young people, especially high schoolers and early college students, are up at midnight, as is the board. Heck, the poll starts at least an hour before any nightly news telecast where I live.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:32 PM | message detail
Resident Evil character of a really good night vote

This leads me to believe that all the cool people are here at night.

~*Ex~Tha*~
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Aitch Emm and the Seattle RAWKHAWKS kicked my ass and the Rams ass with a 54 yard game winning field goal
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:56 PM | message detail
Good job HM of cutting off the rest of my post where I pretty much state that Jill isnt Leon.

Im not saying Jill wins it or doesnt bleed percentages. But to think Peach's day vote will rival anything from KH is lunacy.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 9:59:26 PM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/17/2006 12:55:11 AM
the early voters just love them some Nintendo. given the way the board acts about Nintendo and their penchant for bracket voting, I'm not too too surprised.

There's been 9000 votes cast so far.

Do you really think that Board 8 has that big of an impact on things?

You could use the board to justify the first 15 minutes of a match, but anything past that and it seems like a stretch to me.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:00:04 PM | message detail
Remember that time Jill went ape against Ryu around 11:30?

...Okay, 2:30.

Yeah.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 10:00:13 PM | message detail
Good job HM of cutting off the rest of my post where I pretty much state that Jill isnt Leon.

That should all go without saying. The Bowser/Leon is not comparable to this match at all, and you were praising the example.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:01:06 PM | message detail
Once again, it's not just about the board. You have thousands of young, pro-Nintendo voters awake right now who wouldn't be awake three hours from now. It's that simple.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 10:01:54 PM | message detail
From Janus5000 Posted 10/17/2006 1:00:04 AM
Remember that time Jill went ape against Ryu around 11:30?

...Okay, 2:30.

Yeah.


I'm not as knowledgeable as some people are in terms of voting trends, but doesn't Ryu have one of the absolute worst day-votes in the field?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:01:56 PM | message detail
I don't think you can make any statements about Peach's day vote with any confidence. I feel much more comfortable just thinking how bad non-RE4 characters are during the day. you'd be hard-pressed to name characters that are worse during the daytime.

I could see Peach having a DK-like vote. we'll see. even DK would gain on RE characters.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:02:14 PM | message detail
I'm going to guess that Jill will take the lead some time during the night and Peach will gain most of it back at the morning then Jill will take the during school vote, which then Peach will comeback with the afterschool vote.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Janus5000 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:03:35 PM | message detail
Ryu Hayabusa, Turts.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 10:04:15 PM | message detail
I'm not as knowledgeable as some people are in terms of voting trends, but doesn't Ryu have one of the absolute worst day-votes in the field?

The Ryu you're thinkin' of, yes, but Ryu Hayabusa has beaten Jill with it twice and improved with it against Zero. I don't remember what happened with Dante though.
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http://wemajor12.myrockinprofile.com/
Next celebrity I hope to out-rank: Alyssa Milano (#44)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:05:00 PM | message detail
I *think* Dante gained with it, but you have to expect such anomalies in a SFF match -- *gets tackled*
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/16/2006 10:05:46 PM | message detail
Ryu H. gained very little ground against Dante during the day.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
NewLib | Posted 10/16/2006 10:06:39 PM | message detail
Lets try this logic then.

Mario lost the day vote to Zero by about 2%
Zero went even on the day vote with LLOYD
Sheena (whose voting patterns should be almost the same as Lloyd's) shredded 3% off of Jill's day vote.

Thus unless you want me to believe that Peach's dav toe > Mario's day vote, the most Peach should get of it is 1%.

Now this logic is obviously faulty to a degree because it requires an Assumption that cant be backed except by more or less a good feeling. Also it requires the stats to hold over three matches, which it wont. But it gives a pretty good idea that unless Peach is better than Mario, her day vote aint great.

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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
King Bowser | Posted 10/16/2006 10:06:56 PM | message detail
It's nice knowing that Peach built up a good 450 vote lead before the night vote really hits. It's something that GANON should have done.

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"Thank You Mario! But our Princess is in another castle!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:07:42 PM | message detail
Peach > Ganon CONFIRMED
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Xuxon | Posted 10/16/2006 10:08:07 PM | message detail
I'm going to guess Jill takes the lead during the night, Peach stalls or slowly gains in the morning, Jill keeps gaining all day to something probably less than a 1000 vote lead, and Peach comes back an unknown amount after school, probably leading to a comfortable Peach victory.
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Take off every sig.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/16/2006 10:08:10 PM | message detail
you'd be hard-pressed to name characters that are worse during the daytime.

*thows a wine glass full of blood to the ground, as Illusionary Dance begins to play*

But, yeah, I would expect Peach to win the day vote pretty much by default. However, Claire trailed Kairi even during the night, and didn't take over the lead until 11:35. If Jill can actually make some progress during the night, she might be able to hold up better once the after school vote hits. But she should probably get moving soon - even if Claire didn't start cutting into Kairi's lead until almost 3 AM, Jill's going to need to do so sooner.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Lopen | Posted 10/16/2006 10:08:54 PM | message detail
Okay, what I want to know is... where is everyone getting that RE sucks with the day vote? Jill went pretty even with Hayabusa with it... and he has the backing of the awesome X-Box day vote. And Leon beat Bowser with it... I can't think of any times where they really flopped with it.

Yeah, Claire lost a ton... but it was Kingdom Hearts.

I'm not thinking Jill has the day vote or anything... I'm just wondering.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/16/2006 10:09:30 PM | message detail
From Janus5000 Posted 10/17/2006 1:03:35 AM
Ryu Hayabusa, Turts.

darn you uncreative japanese name pickers!

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.