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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 390

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 9:51:56 AM | message detail
Though it's possible if there is anything akin to VC antivoting in this thing...but I think the existence of the male half keeps that to a minimum, if at all. Tifa getting 45% would stun me, especially if Samus still ended up winning the main bracket.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 9:56:05 AM | message detail
I don't know if Samus is seen as the massive favourite that Sephiroth was to the everyday person.

Poll 1970 (04/14/2005)
Who do you think will win the villains character battle?

4367 7.01% Bowser
7412 11.9% Ganondorf
3379 5.42% Kefka
29139 46.77% Sephiroth, by a landslide
11560 18.55% Sephiroth, but it'll be close
6446 10.35% Another character

Which female character do you think will win the battle?
Samus Aran 43.1% 41396
Tifa Lockhart 25.77% 24753
Yuna 6.58% 6323
Zelda 20.12% 19329
One of the lower seeds 4.43% 4252
TOTAL VOTES 96053
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xyzzy
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 9:58:56 AM | message detail
The big issue i have with Samus is the lack of any kind of evidence to this so called "power" she has. I mean yeah she beat Sonic that one year but is that value even close to what we could expect now, otherwise every stat is based on SFFs by the hands of Mario and Link. She may go on to win the main bracket but I'm not willing to rely on her SFF based stats until she proves it on someone that has some strength that is not affiliated with Nintendo. She beats Crono/Snake/Sonic then she puts up 55 on Tifa otherwise good luck with that.
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:01:12 AM | message detail
Yeah, the fact that Samus didn't half of the brackets take her out of her cakewalk division last year (<_______________<) speaks volumes about her contest strength just not being as respected as Sephy's. Anti-voting against Samus would perplex me. Sure, Tifa's going to look reasonably good when she goes out thanks to her being a powerful Square going out against powerful Nintendo...just not 45% good.
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*kills self*
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:04:16 AM | message detail
Uh...I don't agree with that, though. I may not have Samus winning the bracket, but she's proven herself time and again as a consistently strong character. She beat Sonic once and put 47% up on pre-KH Sephy, went on to beat Sonic AGAIN in a thrashing then put 40%+ on Cloud, and has never shown herself close to any kind of upset strength. I laugh in the face of her SFF 'power' (MM > Samus, yo), but Samus is a proven force in these things.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:05:56 AM | message detail
*never shown herself close to any kind of upset threat
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Ed Bellis | Posted 10/16/2006 10:07:35 AM | message detail
She may go on to win the main bracket but I'm not willing to rely on her SFF based stats until she proves it on someone that has some strength that is not affiliated with Nintendo

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1779

Among numerous others.
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This was Ed Bellis.
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:09:03 AM | message detail
I could see a bandwagon start up when she steps on Tifa's head in the semifinals, but until then I don't think the average person would see her as a beast. remember when Samus beat Sonic in 2002? I was shocked that Samus had that kind of power here. Samus just doesn't seem like a character that would have massive strength. she also doesn't have that "oh ff7 wins everything" thing going on that Sephiroth did.
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xyzzy
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/16/2006 10:11:04 AM | message detail
Some things never change. Tifa gets a lot higher then expected against weak competition, and people suddenly thinks she has a shot versus the elite. Samus will follow in Sonic's footsteps and smash Tifa into the ground.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:13:51 AM | message detail
I would never expect Auron to have significantly SFFed Big Boss. FFX and FFVII are just two different beasts when it comes to SFF. Note how Rikku in all probability barely SFFed Kairi, if she did at all. Then look at how Aeris absolutely demolished Sora. Now of course Rikku is no Aeris, but Kairi is definitely no Sora.

FFX/MGS SFF just ain't happening.


Well SFFing abilities vary from character to character, of course. Sephiroth SFF'd Liquid badly, but Solid Snake SFF'd Squall and Sora pretty badly as well. Aeris resisted it better, but the point still stands.

I'd never expect Rikku to do much SFFing, against any one, contrary to Auron, who I'd expect to be pretty good with it.

You also have to keep in mind that The Boss would probably be a lot better at resisting SFF than Big Boss, due to how much her fanbase likes her.

I would expect Tifa-The Boss SFF to be a bit more apparent, but to make little difference in the end (compared to Auron-Big Boss).

Also, chronologically, FFX-MGS3 SFF makes a bit more sense than FFVII-MGS3 SFF. Of course, it's FFVII. But also, it's Auron. Remember the favourite FFX poll?

Oh, and Tifa getting 45% on Samus means she's beating Snake and hanging with Sonic after getting her ass handed to her just a year before...sure, I believe in the power of KH2, but just as Auron ain't beating Crono, Tifa ain't beating Sonic.

Tifa would come quite a lot closer to Sonic than Auron would come to Crono. Last year, Tifa was probably closer to Sonic than Auron was to Crono. Since then, she's had her first KH as well (a lesser role than Auron of course, but still) and AC, of which she couldn't even experience a leak against Sonic.

Also, I can totally see Tifa being on Snake's -2k5- level. A 3% boost for debuting in KH and AC? Sounds pretty reasonable to me. But I believe Snake's quite a bit stronger this year, plus there's always Snake-Tifa SFF. I'd never take Tifa to beat Snake.

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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:15:57 AM | message detail
My point wasnt intended to say oh Tifa = strong because she can SFF a MGS character im saying Samus has a great deal of potential to be overated. Samus has had this hype before and fallen hard from it. Tifa won't be Samus but saying Samus is a guranteed win in the final might be over zealous. Thats all im saying.
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:16:44 AM | message detail
guaranteed win in the final of the female bracket? yeah, that's guaranteed.
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xyzzy
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/16/2006 10:18:45 AM | message detail
After Samus curb stomps Tifa everyone will be on the Samus for main bracket champ bus, and then when she underperforms on Zelda in the next round, everyone will jump on Crono (or whoever from the male side), and then Samus still manages to kick ass and take names in the final.

This is all assuming that Zelda beats Aeris of course!

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I love bananas.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:18:52 AM | message detail
Samus never had a guaranteed win in the final, even if every inch of her 2k4 stat was legit. That's, what, a 53% win over Crono? A Samus dip, a Crono boost (hey, we've seen it before -- twice), or even Mega Man/Sonic coming out of nowhere could put that to rest.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:19:23 AM | message detail
Some things never change. Tifa gets a lot higher then expected against weak competition, and people suddenly thinks she has a shot versus the elite. Samus will follow in Sonic's footsteps and smash Tifa into the ground.

Even going from Tifa's 2k5 (through Sonic) value, Tifa only needs a 3.65% boost to break 45% on -adjusted- Samus 2k5. That's a boost that I, at least, would expect from KH2 and AC. From what we've seen so far, she's certainly showing boosting.

For her to fail to break 40% on adjusted Samus, Tifa would actually have to drop from her 2k5 value. Not happening.
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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/16/2006 10:19:29 AM | message detail
If Tifa gets 45% on Samus I will run into a brick wall repeatedly.

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I love bananas.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:26 AM | message detail
While we are talking about Samus.

Samus has a strength of 41.69 against Base Link.
Albert Wesker has a strength of 15.56 against Base Link.



Samus 81.34% 72,109
Albert Wesker 18.66% 16,544
TOTAL VOTES 88,653


Samus wins with 81.34% of the vote!
A 55,565 vote margin of victory.


While I still think it's impressive that Samus almost got 80% on Ada Wong, Ada can't be stronger than Wesker, right?
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Supporter of Ryu.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:20:42 AM | message detail
I just thought of an interesting idea. Put Sora in Samus' spot in the tourney. Would you take Sora being in the finals? I mean the female bracket is just not that strong...
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:21:57 AM | message detail
Uh, if anything I'd expect Ada to be stronger than Wesker thanks to her much bigger roles in RE2 and RE4, the most popular RE games. That match makes Samus look good no matter how you slice it.
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*kills self*
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:22:45 AM | message detail
I just thought of an interesting idea. Put Sora in Samus' spot in the tourney. Would you take Sora being in the finals? I mean the female bracket is just not that strong...

Sora doesn't survive Tifa.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:22:56 AM | message detail
If Tifa gets 45% on Samus I will run into a brick wall repeatedly.

Sure you will. I think you're really underestimating today's performance. Dante got like 71.5 on Terra. Tifa's getting 75% on The Boss, who broke 60% on Celes.

How much of that can be SFF?

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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 10:23:44 AM | message detail
Curse you Karma HUnter and all your perfect logic!
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Supporter of Ryu.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:24:02 AM | message detail
How much of that can be SFF?

Frog (2005c) VS Liquid Snake (2005v)

Frog has a strength of 24.97.
Liquid Snake has a strength of 20.71.

Frog wins with 58.53% of the vote!
A win of 14,971 with 87,754 total votes cast.
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*kills self*
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RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:24:44 AM | message detail
Alot of that can be SFF...
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/16/2006 10:26:00 AM | message detail
Sure you will. I think you're really underestimating today's performance. Dante got like 71.5 on Terra. Tifa's getting 75% on The Boss, who broke 60% on Celes.

Let's not forget that Tifa overperformed against Vyse as well. Maybe she just overperforms on weak characters? Hell, maybe FF7 just overperforms on characters with very little strength.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:29:34 AM | message detail
I really cant wait for the Mega Man/Sora match. I mean Sora might finally have a good read other then the huge game he just released this year... But in terms of SFF it should be even. About Sora/Tifa I think that would be interesting especially after yesterdays match. Is FFX that hated, Rikku that hated, Sora more hated, Does Tifa KH boost apply against Sora, so many questions i really wanna see this match!
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/16/2006 10:30:09 AM | message detail
I could see people looking for a tifa upset if she was going to be facing one of the weaker noble niners, but against samus? I just don't see it being remotely possible.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:30:53 AM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1317

Why are we pretending that this match doesn't exist?
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*kills self*
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RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:34:49 AM | message detail
Sora had alot more hate in 2k3 then he does now. I mean did you see his character in KH1 Sora pre KH2 = fodder. Plus FF7 was also bigger on this site then. That match would be closer this year. Sora also has seeding which as bad as it sounds does play a role in some peoples voting. (Except for Halo of course LOL)
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:34:51 AM | message detail
I don't see Tifa as a threat to any of the NN. maybe Mega Man if he dropped.
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xyzzy
consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:34:52 AM | message detail
How much of that can be SFF?

Frog (2005c) VS Liquid Snake (2005v)

Frog has a strength of 24.97.
Liquid Snake has a strength of 20.71.

Frog wins with 58.53% of the vote!
A win of 14,971 with 87,754 total votes cast.


Let's see here.. Going off Dante's performance on Terra last year compared to Tifa's performance today, Tifa beats Dante 2k5 with 65.86%. She beats her former value with 65%.

The only flaws here are assuming Celes = Terra, and assuming Tifa ends with 75% (which might prove to be beneficial to Tifa, if she gets the day vote), and these flaws are more than compensated by the fact that Sephiroth should, by all means, be a lot better with SFF than Tifa, and The Boss can likely resist it as good, if not better than Liquid.

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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 10:35:30 AM | message detail
Beacuse that match us all consider Jill VS Ryu H a three point match in 2004?
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Supporter of Ryu.
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:35:38 AM | message detail
Sora pre KH2 = fodder.

...oh

yeah, I think I'll stop reading this argument for now
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xyzzy
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:38:58 AM | message detail
and these flaws are more than compensated by the fact that Sephiroth should, by all means, be a lot better with SFF than Tifa, and The Boss can likely resist it as good, if not better than Liquid.

No, you see, THESE are the flaws.

Check Cloud/Vyse and Tifa/Vyse. Tifa is going to garner more SFF because she's weaker.

And Liquid would definitely put some SFF on The Boss. Fans of MGS didn't stop being fans with MGS3, and the SFF will follow.

Do NOT try to draw any conclusions from this match. At least you'll have some semblance of an argument once we see Peach take on Tifa, as we'll be able to compare through Jill with no possibility of SFF.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:39:04 AM | message detail
Let's not forget that Tifa overperformed against Vyse as well. Maybe she just overperforms on weak characters? Hell, maybe FF7 just overperforms on characters with very little strength.

I'd like to think The Boss is quite a bit stronger than Vyse though. But yeah, you've got a point there. She'll break 40% for sure though. I'm expecting 45.

I could see people looking for a tifa upset if she was going to be facing one of the weaker noble niners, but against samus? I just don't see it being remotely possible.

No one us calling for Tifa to win though. Just breaking 40-45%.


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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:39:10 AM | message detail
Ok what did pre KH2 Sora do that makes him anymore then a midcarder at best. Fodder too harsh he acted like it in the game... thats another story i suppose... but above midcarder for someone who has proven nothing is ridiculous.
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:40:30 AM | message detail
Ok what did pre KH2 Sora do that makes him anymore then a midcarder at best.

He whipped Hayabusa's ass all over the poll en route to getting 35% on Samus, he got 55% on Alucard...is Alucard fodder, now?
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consolefreak | Posted 10/16/2006 10:43:36 AM | message detail
No, you see, THESE are the flaws.

Check Cloud/Vyse and Tifa/Vyse. Tifa is going to garner more SFF because she's weaker.


That match is one thing that makes today look less impressive. Remember though, like I said, even going from Tifa's match against Sonic, her breaking 45% on adjusted 2k5 Samus is very, very reasonable, if not overly conservative.

And Liquid would definitely put some SFF on The Boss. Fans of MGS didn't stop being fans with MGS3, and the SFF will follow.

Sephiroth wouldn't SFF Tifa? I'd certainly expect the SFF to be worst in the latter match.

Do NOT try to draw any conclusions from this match. At least you'll have some semblance of an argument once we see Peach take on Tifa, as we'll be able to compare through Jill with no possibility of SFF.

My argument doesn't rely on this match at all, really. It just confirms a solid KH2/AC boost. But you didn't need this match to know that.

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CB: 32/34. Today: Tifa vs. The Boss. Tomorrow: Jill vs. Peach.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 10:49:02 AM | message detail
Alucard and Hayabusa represent cult games Kratos got 40 on Alucard is Beating a Tales character 60/40 signs of strength now? Jill managed better on Sheena and hasnt been in the contest in ages. They have some strength but they are now low end midcards. They can beat the fodder and other cults and nothing more. Before KH2 Sora even falls into the cult midcard category he just wasnt as well known and those who knew of him didnt like him.
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
transience | Posted 10/16/2006 10:50:06 AM | message detail
haha

umm, wrong Kratos
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xyzzy
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 10:50:30 AM | message detail
Alucard is Beating a Tales character 60/40 signs of strength now¨

huh?
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Supporter of Ryu.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 10:53:21 AM | message detail
The fact that you can't differentiate between GoW Kratos and ToS Kratos makes me inclined to disregard this argument, but I'll persist a little longer.

Firstly: WE'RE TALKING ABOUT GOD OF WAR KRATOS
Secondly: Ryu (SF) didn't do that much better on Kratos than Alucard did.
Thirdly: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1347, http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1747, http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1719
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/16/2006 10:58:47 AM | message detail
Assuming Big boss = The Boss

lol no

Oh, and EC, I don't care about what The Boss' position is - we all know this match is BS - Tifa deserves to be blownout for daring to beat a character of The Boss' calibre by this much.

lol @ wrong Kratos, as well.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 32/34 Today: Rikku
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/16/2006 11:00:43 AM | message detail
Ok i give i cant win an argument with KH, i jus noticed the kirby match how do you guys keep all these matches memorized i mean seriously i witnessed em all but still dont remember matches point for point 2-3 years ago 8-) Alucard/Castlevania has some strength and Sora may have been decent before KH2 but that all really makes him look even better with a much better sequel recently out. Still makes you wonder about the Series values though KH does better on Metal Gear but worse on Castlevania. I'll be honest though and say i have no idea about pre kh2 Sora cuz well as can be seen in my posts I just didnt like him and voted against him accordingly. ;-)
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/16/2006 11:04:04 AM | message detail
For her to fail to break 40% on adjusted Samus, Tifa would actually have to drop from her 2k5 value. Not happening.

Or *gasp* Samus could be underadjusted!

Dante got like 71.5 on Terra. Tifa's getting 75% on The Boss, who broke 60% on Celes.

And your point with Dante? everyone expected Celes to be weaker than Terra, it was just a question of how much. As for this match, there can be plenty of SFF, MGS and FF7 have shown to go wacky before. Oh, and Dante totally rocks Tifa.


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I love bananas.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/16/2006 11:06:25 AM | message detail
everyone expected Celes to be weaker than Terra

Not everybody, I know I heard afew times that what Celes does at the end of FF3/6 is supposed to make her a big favorite...despite her doing worse than Terra in the FF3/6-poll and having a lower seed.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/16/2006 11:07:19 AM | message detail
Or *gasp* Samus could be underadjusted!

Looks like it didn't take you very long at all to get over Vincent/Ganon!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
rpgapzx | Posted 10/16/2006 11:08:54 AM | message detail
Terrible Thought: Megaman wins the male bracket and faces Samus. Samus SFFs him. The female bracket looks really strong compared to the male -_-.
Rikku>Squall? :(
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Poker is proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6: 35/36 // Today: Tifa // Leaderboard: 41st
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/16/2006 11:09:27 AM | message detail
Looks like it didn't take you very long at all to get over Vincent/Ganon!

Ganon filled my dark soul with LIIIIIIIGHT! Seriously though, I said that the extent to which Samus is underadjusted has changed in my mind, it doesn't stop me from thinking she's still stronger than Mario indirectly.

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I love bananas.
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/16/2006 11:09:45 AM | message detail
Rikku>Squall?

I don't see any problem with that :D
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Supporter of Ryu.