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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 389

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/15/2006 2:33:10 PM | message detail
HM, he has a point. Considering how much you downplayed DoC prior to Vincent/Ganon, you did...upplay (is that the word? >_>) it a lot before the bracket release.

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Shodges964 | Posted 10/15/2006 2:37:01 PM | message detail
Chun-Li destroyed Kasumi though...while I dont think Yuna will lose to Chun-Li i think she will put up a nice fight
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/15/2006 2:40:15 PM | message detail
To this site, an FF7 remake would be THE biggest game ever made. TP would pale in comparisson.

Ignoring the fact that such a thing is not guaranteed, it would be an announcement as opposed to an actual game release on this site's most anticipated system. And unlike the TP announcement (some contribute the announcement/trailer to Link boosting in 2004), it wouldn't be shocking to hear such a thing either.

Considering how much you downplayed DoC prior to Vincent/Ganon, you did...upplay (is that the word? >_>) it a lot before the bracket release.

It was also before I saw the abysmal critic scores of the American version and its rather poor sales in the initial month. But even with a potential boost in mind, I was still taking Ganon over Vincent. It's tough to say how much Vincent benefited, but we'll find out soon.

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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/15/2006 2:45:18 PM | message detail
I agree with HM. I can't see any possible reason why Vincent would beat Ganondorf after TP. DoC and the movie would be forgotten (or close to it), so Vincent should return to his normal, FF7 ways or just a bit stronger (weaker then this year for sure). Add in the villain of the most anticipated game of the year, on the most anticipated console of the year, and you get a decent to strong boost.

When the match was as close as it was, just a simple thing like that could make Ganondorf beat Vincent rather easily.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 2:46:54 PM | message detail
Was "hey, there's gonna be a new Zelda game" shocking at all? Really, at all? How could ANYONE be surprised that Nintendo would continue to make games for their second most popular franchise? And, really, even if it were a shock how is it even remotely close to being more shocking than the idea of getting FF7 before the end of 2k7? I'm in the camp that wholly beleives Square has already been working on it for some time, and I still don't think it's possible for us to see it before 2k8 and I'm heavily betting on it not comming out until 2k9 or later even taking into consideration the belief that they've been working on it for at least a year (though certainly not to the degree that they've been working on a number of other projects).
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/15/2006 2:48:25 PM | message detail
Of course, anything could happen in these contests, so I guess Vincent has a shot based on that, but otherwise, everything is pointing to a Ganondorf win.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/15/2006 2:59:42 PM | message detail
No one will play TP. Vincent still wins.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 3:03:32 PM | message detail
"everything is pointing to a Ganondorf win."

Really? That's what I heard about the match THIS year.
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Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/15/2006 3:04:43 PM | message detail
"HM, he has a point. Considering how much you downplayed DoC prior to Vincent/Ganon, you did...upplay (is that the word? >_>) it a lot before the bracket release."


Vincent beat Ganondorf because he was already stronger than Gaondorf before DoC. That game was not popular enough to have given him any kind of a boost.

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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2006 3:07:39 PM | message detail
Ganon vs Vincent in October of 2007. TP was successful. Square announces an FF7 remake that will be coming out a month after the match takes place, who do you take.

You do realize that it was the FFXIII team that did the FFVII PS3 tech demo, and FFXIII won't be out until at least 2k8, right? If there's an FFVII remake, it'll be the FFXIII team that does it, and we won't see it until at least 2010.

Regardless, the FFVII remake coming out a month after the match would have about as much effect as TP had on Ganon vs. Vincent this year, IE none.

Was "hey, there's gonna be a new Zelda game" shocking at all? Really, at all? How could ANYONE be surprised that Nintendo would continue to make games for their second most popular franchise

Well, Nintendo originally announced that the next Zelda was going to be a cel-shaded Wind Waker sequel. Which was why seeing TP was so surprising.

Really? That's what I heard about the match THIS year.

Really? Because according to the BOP, Vincent > Ganon was one of the most popular upsets on the site.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2006 3:12:43 PM | message detail
Vincent beat Ganondorf because he was already stronger than Gaondorf before DoC. That game was not popular enough to have given him any kind of a boost.

I can see it giving Vincent a temporary boost, since it only came out a month or so before the match. 300K sales would be enough to push Vincent up a little. Would Vincent have won without it? Probably, but it would've been a far more interesting match.
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BDawg | Posted 10/15/2006 3:32:17 PM | message detail
Good lord I was hoping we were done with Vincent/Ganon, are they gonna have to face off every year from now on? At least put this junk to rest when Sonic buries Vincent. Oh but my one bit, I actually liked WW Ganon more than OoT Ganon. *gets bombed*
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Should I start running now?
therealmnm | Posted 10/15/2006 3:33:38 PM | message detail
I don't care for OoT "Ganondorf" at all. He seemed more like a buffoon more than anything.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 3:35:27 PM | message detail
You do realize that it was the FFXIII team that did the FFVII PS3 tech demo, and FFXIII won't be out until at least 2k8, right? If there's an FFVII remake, it'll be the FFXIII team that does it, and we won't see it until at least 2010.

This reeks of baseless assumption to me. Making a tech demo doesn't automatically mean that team is inextricably tied down to a remake that may or may not materialize in the future.

Oh but my one bit, I actually liked WW Ganon more than OoT Ganon. *gets bombed*

Frankly, I can't understand anyone who has it the other way around. WW is Ganondorf's sole redemption in an otherwise wholly uninspiring career.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:00:14 PM | message detail
That's the interesting thing about that hypothetical situation if you look at it before this year's Ganon/Vince. Does the hype for a new game out-do an actual new game/movie? That's why I started to shift towards Vincent winning as that match got closer.

As for FF7 remake being bigger than TP: lol chichi

A FF7 remake would be big, but in the end it's still a remake. It would garner nowhere near the hype that TP is getting.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:02:16 PM | message detail
From BDawg Posted 10/15/2006 6:32:17 PM
Good lord I was hoping we were done with Vincent/Ganon, are they gonna have to face off every year from now on? At least put this junk to rest when Sonic buries Vincent. Oh but my one bit, I actually liked WW Ganon more than OoT Ganon. *gets bombed*

A Vincent/Ganondorf match every year would be a great replacement for Mario/Crono. I could definitely see those two going at eachothers' throats with the various Zelda/FF7 related stuff that gets released every year.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:06:35 PM | message detail
Wow, Kairi's day vote didn't do too much. Only cut about 1%. Rikku looks to be stabilizing now at around 57-58% updates. This is looking very good for my oracle.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 4:06:56 PM | message detail
Okay, since it's on my mind:

What % on BL do you expect out of Yuffie, should she happen to ever make a contest?
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Incompetence | Posted 10/15/2006 4:10:41 PM | message detail
About 28-30% on BL.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2006 4:12:14 PM | message detail
This reeks of baseless assumption to me. Making a tech demo doesn't automatically mean that team is inextricably tied down to a remake that may or may not materialize in the future.

Meh, I don't see which other team would make it. I can't imagine the FFXII team working on a remake. The KH team might, since they did AC (right?), but they seem to be sticking to KH for now. Does Square have any other RPG teams?

What % on BL do you expect out of Yuffie, should she happen to ever make a contest?

I'd put pre-FFX-2 Yuna as her floor, which would be 23.66%. Personally I could see her going even with Frog, so around 25%BL for me.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/15/2006 4:13:22 PM | message detail
About 28-30% on BL.

As strong as pre-KH Aeris? Unless DoC gives her an ENORMOUS boost (in which case Vincent > Samus is all but guaranteed), I really don't see that happening.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 4:13:43 PM | message detail
Picking Yuffie to lose to Master Chief just screams "BONEHEAD" at me. I'd consider 25% or so to be her absolute floor.
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ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 4:17:12 PM | message detail
"As strong as pre-KH Aeris?"

1, That's still short of pre-KH Aeris
2, Yuffie has had a bigger role in the KH games than Aeris by a long shot and stands to have gained far more from them.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 4:18:23 PM | message detail
As for FF7 remake being bigger than TP: lol chichi

A FF7 remake would be big, but in the end it's still a remake. It would garner nowhere near the hype that TP is getting.


You've got to be kidding me. FFVII is the lifeblood of this site, even if it would lose to OoT now. If Cloud had a FFVII remake on his side right now, I wouldn't take him to lose even if the match fell on the day of TP's release.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2006 4:21:30 PM | message detail
I dunno, remember those polls HM posted from DoC's site? The majority of FF7 fans remembered her best for probably the most annoying thing in the game. Also, on both here and some other FF-fansite, Yuffie was either next-to-last or third-from-last in favorites-polls (I know she was ahead of Cait Sith in both, and I think she was ahead of Barret in one). Also, heh...can't believe I'm still bringing it up, but she's a secret/optional character as well if that means anything anymore.

Yuffie would clearly be above the fodder line, but I would get cautious once we start placing her above MC. Not that I wouldn't -- I probably would -- but any higher seems too dangerous, FF7 or not.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/15/2006 4:29:44 PM | message detail
Is it me or does this match have the highest vote totals...ever?
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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/15/2006 4:30:06 PM | message detail
And by ever I mean, this contest!
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/15/2006 4:31:49 PM | message detail
You're right, the vote totals are quite high. Interesting.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2006 4:33:11 PM | message detail
Especially for them having the same fanbase -- new-age RPGs on the PS2 by Square.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Incompetence | Posted 10/15/2006 4:33:43 PM | message detail
None of the FFVII PCs other than Cait Sith and Barret should be below 25% on BL.

Seriously, FFVII can pump out more strong characters than any other game on this site. Just being a PC in FFVII guarantees some kind of strength.

With that said, I would expect Cait Sith to get 20% on BL.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2006 4:37:31 PM | message detail
No way I don't take Barret over Yuffie.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:38:22 PM | message detail
This match is on pace for 128k so this match will probably rank anywhere from 4th-2nd for this year.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:38:57 PM | message detail
year = contest
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/15/2006 4:39:10 PM | message detail
Ha. I'd take Yuffie over Barret with ease solely for 3 KH appearances.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:39:26 PM | message detail
From Incompetence Posted 10/15/2006 7:10:41 PM
About 28-30% on BL.

XDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

The same Yuffie that's an annoying jailbaity asshat the entire game? Aside from the lol hentai crowd on Board 8, nobody likes Yuffie, or any other characters in that Archetype.

FF7 characters in terms of contest strength:

Cloud > Seph > Vince > Tifa > Aeris > Barret > Cid > Red 13 > "This guy are sick" guy > Yuffie

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:40:15 PM | message detail
I'd take Barret over Yuffie based on Mortal Kombat fans confusing him for Jax.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2006 4:41:53 PM | message detail
...I forgot Yuffie was in the KH series and DoC. I dunno now, though I'd still probably take Barret. It's not like Yuffie had a big role in the KH series from what I understand (please, correct me if I'm wrong), and I figure she had a much smaller role than Vincent in DoC and the game's somewhat-low sales wouldn't help that much either.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:42:08 PM | message detail
Oh, throw Cait Sith at the end.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:42:33 PM | message detail
Match XXXV: (1) Tifa Lockhart vs. (4) The Boss

Previous Matches

Tifa Lockhart
Defeated Ivy Valentine, 76.18% - 23.82%

The Boss
Defeated Celes Chere, 61.08% - 38.92%

Analysis:

Last round Tifa showed that any fighting characters that isn’t from Street Fighter or Mortal Kombat is weak by easily tripling Ivy. The Boss turned a relatively hyped match into a boring one by getting over 60% on her opponent when people were comparing this match to Terra/Big Boss.

The Boss may have had an impressive showing last round, but that isn’t enough to be able to put a dent into Tifa. Final Fantasy VI characters have been proven from time to time that they aren’t strong because of the ensemble cast. The question becomes how strong The Boss compare with Revolver Ocelot is. Most people would say Ocelot would be the stronger character because he’s been in more MGS games and is a big fan favorite according to fans of the series. The Boss on the other hand was only in MGS3, but her role in the game could easily be compared with Ocelot’s role in all three MGS games. If The Boss was to be weaker I don’t see it being by that much.

Not much to talk about this match. This is expected to beat Ocelot 67/33, but Tifa has had Advent Children since last contest so I wouldn’t be so surprised if Tifa was pushing well over 70% on The Boss, but a tripling is probably out of reach for her.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Tifa Lockhart over The Boss

charmander6000’s Prediction: Tifa wins, 70.26% - 29.74%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/15/2006 4:43:13 PM | message detail
Yuffie has the next biggest role after Squall, Cloud, and Sephiroth, though I know everyone will come in here and be like "NO WAI EVEN EEYORE HAS A BIGGER ROLE"
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Big Bob | Posted 10/15/2006 4:43:34 PM | message detail
Mortal Kombat wouldn't even be in that analysis if Subby didn't kill everyone's brackets. >.>
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:44:34 PM | message detail
I can't see Tifa breaking 70%. I think 67-68% is where she'll land.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:44:54 PM | message detail
Yuffie has the next biggest role after Squall, Cloud, and Sephiroth, though I know everyone will come in here and be like "NO WAI EVEN EEYORE HAS A BIGGER ROLE"


Hey, uh, no way. Even Eeyore had a bigger role.

Actually, Sephiroth's role isn't all that big. He's an optional boss. YRP had a bigger part in KH2.

;>_>
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/15/2006 4:44:59 PM | message detail
As much as I dislike Yuffie... she did have a pretty good role in KH/KHII

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/15/2006 4:45:32 PM | message detail
Yuffie has the next biggest role after Squall, Cloud, and Sephiroth, though I know everyone will come in here and be like "NO WAI EVEN EEYORE HAS A BIGGER ROLE"

Yeah, her role was actually pretty important in both games. She's really a fun character, and entertaining to fight.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 4:49:52 PM | message detail
"It's not like Yuffie had a big role in the KH series from what I understand"

She spends a good amount of time being buddy-buddy with Squall. I seem to remember him getting a fairly good KH boost, and I'd bet she got a goodly part of that herself.
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MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/15/2006 4:50:23 PM | message detail
FF7 Order:

Cloud > Sephiroth > Vincent > Tifa > Aeris > Red > Cid > Yuffie > Barret > Reno > Cait Sith

Well Yuffie is hated she does have somewhat of a fanbase. Barret is neither.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/15/2006 4:51:37 PM | message detail
I stand corrected. If it was just the FF7 fanbase, I'd take Barret and not look back...but with the KH fanbase, aye, probably Yuffie.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/15/2006 4:54:49 PM | message detail
Funny how no one is actually putting up expected % against BL at this point...

BTW, my conservative guess is 24-27%, though I'd be willing to beleive 30%.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 4:55:48 PM | message detail
Why do you guys doubt Barret? Don't tell me you actually believe the "GameFAQs is racist" thing from CJ/Ness. You do realize that was a joke right?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.