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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 389

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:03:03 PM | message detail
I say we nomination drive Kairi for next year, just so we can get some sort of accurate read on her.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 10:03:41 PM | message detail
I completely agree and support this decision!
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caps
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:07:46 PM | message detail
And for ****s and giggles, my personal award thingy that I ripped off of tranny:

TuRtLe's Round 1 Awards:

Most Improved (Male):
Luigi

The plumber in green finally shook whatever was holding him back in previous contests off and managed to beat the heavily favoured Zero easily. As someone known for choking big matches, this was a big deal for him and he may finally get some respect in contest discussions.

Most Improved (Female): Lara Croft

Lara has traditionally been a stinker in these contests, but since her latest game actually got praise, it seems as though the face (and bewbs) of mainstream female characters is finally showing what she can be capable of. Granted, Alyx Vance isn't exaclty the strongest foe, Lara made her look like.... well, Lara. Hopefully Lara can put on a respectable performance against Chun-Li in round 2

Best Newcomer (Male): Sub-Zero

This has to go to Sub-Zero. Prince of Persia impressed against Kirby, but Sub-Zero beat Master Chief. Okay, maybe that isn't saying much, but Sub-Zero did what DK couldn't and Frog struggled heavily to do. Probably the most successful of the nomination tourney winners, he orchestrated the biggest round 1 bracket buster in contest history. He also helped continue the trend of ever character battle since the 2k5 Villain Contest, in that the last match of the first round resulted in a 7 seed upsetting a 2 seed and killing many brackets.

Best Newcomer (Female): Princess Peach

The female newcomers are hardly formidible characters, but Peach makes her contest debut after being snubbed for 4 years. She started the contest out with a bang by completely and utterly anihilating Princess Daisy in a brutal SFF showdown. We'll see how she performs against Jill in round 2.

Biggest Loser (Male): Master Chief

Not much to say here. That match was his to lose, and lose it he did. He rolled over and let Sub-Zero build an insurmountable lead of 4200 votes before he got off his ass to do something about it. Although you have to love Halo/Master Chief in the contest setting. They always seem to result in amazingly fun matches.

Biggest Loser (Female): Jade

Not much to say here either. She let a freaking Resident Evil female destroy here. How Jade got a 5 seed while characters like Dixie Kong were left out is beyond me. (lol pun)

Most Impressive (Male): Leon Kennedy

Several males impressed this round, including Squall, Riku, Luigi and Dante, but Leon performed over everyone's expectations against Bowser. I suppose the second round match between Bowser and Mr. Consistancy will give us a great idea of how much of Leon's performance was him, and how much was Bowser being overrated.

Most Impressive (Female): Zelda

Zelda easily takes the cake here. She completely manhandled (lol) Carmen Sandiego and broke 100,000 individual votes. If I didn't know any better, I'd say she has a good shot against Samus.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 10:08:34 PM | message detail
No, how about we nominate some more worthwhile characters from KH.....

Hey, if the game is like CT, just about any character that comes from it will show some kind of strength!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Rikku vs. Kairi - Bracket: Rikku - Vote: Rikku (30/34)
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:11:36 PM | message detail
Lavos and Marle showed strength?

Aside from those two, Frog Crono and Magus are the only other ones, and they're probably the 3 favoured party members overall.

Although I fully support any efforts to get Ayla into a contest setting.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 10:13:19 PM | message detail
Lavos and Marle showed strength?

More than most people expected from them, plus you could make a case for both of them being behind SFF.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
King Bowser | Posted 10/14/2006 10:13:30 PM | message detail
say we nomination drive Kairi for next year, just so we can get some sort of accurate read on her.

We'll have an accurate enough read on her anyway.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/14/2006 10:13:41 PM | message detail
I say Robo would do pretty good.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
wavedash101 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:16:51 PM | message detail
*high fives hiko*

Now we're talkin'!!!
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Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:17:20 PM | message detail
True. And I can't see Robo doing much better than Marle. If I had to tier the CT characters in terms of popularity, it would be something like:

Crono

Frog/Magus

Robo/Ayla/Marle

Lucca

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:19:04 PM | message detail
And I hope that FF12 ends up being a successful game. Square hasn't put out anything good since FF8, and contest strengths show this (aside from Kingdom Hearts which I personally didn't like, although I can see how other people might)

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:20:57 PM | message detail
Nah, I definitely dont think Marle is equal to Robo or Ayla, who are actually good party member to use.

Equation time!

Crono>>>>>>Magus>>Frog>>>Robo>=Ayla>Marle>>Lucca

At least Lucca has a kickass theme song though.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Big Bob | Posted 10/14/2006 10:33:19 PM | message detail
...You know, when you point out that Sub-Zero > Frog, it just makes Chrono Trigger seem all the weaker..
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:34:41 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero isn't weak, you know. Master Chief may be a chump, but not everyone can beat him.
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Character Battle V Score - 31/34 points
Current Prediction - Rikku vs. Kairi
wavedash101 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:35:44 PM | message detail
Except that Crono, the embodiment of the game, would beat Subby's face in.

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
transience | Posted 10/14/2006 10:37:13 PM | message detail
it's amazing, Sub-Zero goes and beats a quality opponent and no one gives him any credit. I can't say it's unexpected.. I guess we'll have to wait for him to equal Alucard on Auron to convince people otherwise.
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xyzzy
Draco1214 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:38:54 PM | message detail
Just that Sub-Zero actually beat Master Chief is enough to prove to me that he has strength on this site.
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Character Battle V Score - 31/34 points
Current Prediction - Rikku vs. Kairi
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:44:07 PM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/15/2006 1:37:13 AM
it's amazing, Sub-Zero goes and beats a quality opponent and no one gives him any credit. I can't say it's unexpected.. I guess we'll have to wait for him to equal Alucard on Auron to convince people otherwise.

He beat one of the most overrated, non-linear characters in the contest, who's known for massively underperforming on people who he should beat.

Sub-Zero is untested and just came off a quality new game 3 days before the match.

I still take Frog over SZ comfortably

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 10:45:06 PM | message detail
If you want to get real technical, Magus is a terrible character to use and is beat out by Frog, Ayla, Robo and Lucca in terms of battle usefulness.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/14/2006 10:45:13 PM | message detail
Crono>>>>>>Magus>>Frog>>>Robo>=Ayla>Marle>>Lucca

There's no way Ayla would be stronger than Marle. Robo should pretty equal to her and Lucca isn't that much weaker, IMO.
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Rikku with 65.63%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 10:46:00 PM | message detail
I'll take Sub-Zero over Frog without sweating. It'd be no Ulti-blowout, but I wouldn't worry in the least with Sub-Zero.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:49:06 PM | message detail
If you ask me, Ayla would be slightly above Marle, and Robo would be comfortably inbetween Ayla and Frog. Lucca would be the weakest, of course.

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wavedash101 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:50:21 PM | message detail
^ That what I said Haste...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 11:04:11 PM | message detail
Oh, yeah, I was gonna say I agree with you on that, but I forgot... great minds think alike. I figure the only real difference is I think Frog is closer to Robo than to Magus.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 11:06:30 PM | message detail
From HaRRicH Posted 10/15/2006 1:46:00 AM
I'll take Sub-Zero over Frog without sweating. It'd be no Ulti-blowout, but I wouldn't worry in the least with Sub-Zero.

So you'll take the person that got 49% on Snake over someone who needed a new game, and MC anti-votes to in?

(And yes, I realize Frog/Snake was off kilter, but Frog is still a respectable mid-carder, which is more than I can say for MC)

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 11:07:31 PM | message detail
From Haste_2 Posted 10/15/2006 2:04:11 AM
Oh, yeah, I was gonna say I agree with you on that, but I forgot... great minds think alike. I figure the only real difference is I think Frog is closer to Robo than to Magus.

Nah. Frog is well liked by most of the fanbase. Robo is just.... there. Robo is great in battle, but he doesn't seem to have the fanbase that Frog does.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 11:17:08 PM | message detail
So you'll take the person that got 49% on Snake over someone who needed a new game, and MC anti-votes to in?

(And yes, I realize Frog/Snake was off kilter, but Frog is still a respectable mid-carder, which is more than I can say for MC)


1. We're not talking about Bowser.
2. Frog only beat MC by seven votes, do you think he didn't rely on anti-votes there as well?
3. For you saying Frog and MC are both erratic and them having the closest match ever, then Halo 2, the Map-Pack, and the 360 being released since then, I can't believe you feel so confident that MC is so much worse than Frog.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
redrocket | Posted 10/14/2006 11:47:43 PM | message detail
Lucca would be the weakest, of course.

I don't understand this at all. Why does everyone on this board hate on Lucca? In terms of battle usefulness, she is ahead of Marle at the very least. Why is she assumed to be so weak?
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/15/2006 12:04:57 AM | message detail
I'd take Sub-Zero over Frog with no problem. He can withstand a bit of MC's day vote. Not to mention that his match with MC is a lot more convincing..
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Samus vs. Ada Wong / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus (30/32)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Abstain
Gaddswell | Posted 10/15/2006 12:19:17 AM | message detail
Robo and Kairi for SC2k7? Count me in! Remember to get Fox, Mewtwo and Pikachu in as well!


I don't understand this at all. Why does everyone on this board hate on Lucca? In terms of battle usefulness, she is ahead of Marle at the very least. Why is she assumed to be so weak?

I too would like to know the reason for this. IMO Lucca > Marle. All Marle's got is haste.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
greatone10 | Posted 10/15/2006 12:59:42 AM | message detail
Lucca's probably the least memorable of the bunch in terms of relevance to the story and personality.

At least Marle draws hate. Lucca just seems to draw apathy.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 1:18:54 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero beat MC despite MC having Halo 2, despite not being the board favorite (and face it, that's THE reason Frog won), having less bracket support despite it being a Round 1 match, and beat the Chief much more convincingly than Frog.

The idea of taking Frog over Sub-Zero easily is an argument from bias. I can't see any other explanation for it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
satai_delenn | Posted 10/15/2006 1:22:09 AM | message detail
I never understood all the Lucca apathy/hate. I really liked her a lot. She was smart and fiery and cool. Plus, the scene *SPOILERS?*


with her mother if you deliberately screw up the password is really well-done. I cried.
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Beating FE5 and FE6 hard mode is a true test of manhood in the Japanese culture. However. This explains why they have a lot of effeminate men. ~Sytha
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 1:24:24 AM | message detail
Lucca is one of the few developed characters from Chrono Trigger, but that will pull in a pitiful amount of votes. If she'd had a cooler design, a cooler role, and been more useful in battle you'd have an argument for some contest strength.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/15/2006 1:26:01 AM | message detail
But... she uses popguns and fire! How much do voters need? >_>
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/15/2006 3:26:32 AM | message detail
Interesting to see this match after some of the people were claiming a 55-60 victory for Kairi over Claire >_>

At this rate even Rikku would barely have managed that.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/15/2006 3:29:35 AM | message detail
It's commonplace for the board to underestimate Resident Evil characters/games.

You'd think that year after year of its characters/games putting in 50-50 matches where apparently they had "no right to" would have made the board see the light. >_<

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 3:30:12 AM | message detail
It's not *too* shocking, though I couldn't be arsed to change it (and I really thought there'd be more SFF than this, although you never know how much there is in the first place).

In any case, it's hard to look at all these perceived Dream Division 'underperformances' and just write them off as a coincidence. So far Bowser, Kirby, Ryu, Rikku, and Tidus have all fallen short of expectations. Only Chun-Li really impressed, and that's going off of freaking 2002 stats. Nothing's certain, but the evidence is mounting.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/15/2006 5:47:33 AM | message detail
Wow, Kairi's actually holding up pretty well. Yeesh, just imagine if she ever became playable in future KH games. Even if Rikku ended up being a bit overrated from last year, Kairi looks poised to crack the fodder line (20% on BL for me anyway). Now I just wonder how much SFF is at play, if any!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/15/2006 5:53:21 AM | message detail
Lucca stinks.

She's great in battle, but I never see anybody but the most hardcore CT fans use her. Most people stick to Crono/Ayla/Magus/Frog/Robo. Marle had a bigger role in the plot, so it makes sense she's stronger than Lucca

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
__Smurf__ | Posted 10/15/2006 5:56:49 AM | message detail
I would have thought that it was common knowledge that Kirby rSFFed Bowser?
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Smurf. The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism.
bogalx | Posted 10/15/2006 5:57:59 AM | message detail
I wouldn't say Lucca's great in battle. Her only saving grace is Flare, which is the second strongest single tech in the game behind Luminaire. Otherwise she's pretty lackluster.

Also, I think we should definitely keep Kairi in as a contest regular. If she gets a significant role in KHIII, she could become a real force to be reckoned with.
jonthomson | Posted 10/15/2006 7:05:26 AM | message detail
As an aside, what would Scorpion be predicted to get on MC?
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/15/2006 7:10:38 AM | message detail
Using Scorpion's best value (2003):

47.3% on MC 2k3
38.5% on MC 2k4
40% on MC 2k5

Of course, I laugh at anyone who uses the 2k4 or 2k5 values... <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
voltch | Posted 10/15/2006 7:12:44 AM | message detail
how much would scorpion presumably get on sub-zero then?
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
jonthomson | Posted 10/15/2006 7:15:43 AM | message detail
Cheers KH. Looks like Sub Zero is objectively stronger and I'm just a deluded Scorpion fanboy :-)
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Jon Thomson - Z1mZum pwned me good and proper.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/15/2006 7:37:16 AM | message detail
I'd take Marle > Lucca, I never used Lucca and the only use for Marle was to heal since I'm cheap when it comes to buying items other than weapons.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
therealmnm | Posted 10/15/2006 7:52:20 AM | message detail
He beat one of the most overrated, non-linear characters in the contest, who's known for massively underperforming on people who he should beat.

He only should beat them if you go by his overrated stats values. If he's always underperforming on people he should beat, that's pretty much a sign that he is really on that level, and his stat value is overrated. I don't see how you can say that Sub-Zero wouldn't beat Frog after seeing that.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/15/2006 8:03:43 AM | message detail
Even if Rikku ended up being a bit overrated from last year, Kairi looks poised to crack the fodder line (20% on BL for me anyway).

Which means that Claire will also break fodderline

YAY!
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Supporter of Ryu.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/15/2006 8:23:24 AM | message detail
Claire managed to stay above Ada despite the RE4 juggernaut.

Kind of refreshing.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.