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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 389

Who Cares? | Posted 10/14/2006 6:07:13 PM | message detail
Tomorrow match looks identical to Aeris/Sora, about a 66/34 affair methinks!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
greatone10 | Posted 10/14/2006 6:10:28 PM | message detail
What is it with Kairi and people wanting to use outdated stats to decide her matches?

Aeris vs. Sora was back when KH's fanbase was merely a small extension of the FF/Square fanbase. The series has grown immensly since then.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 6:36:31 PM | message detail
Though Kairi is no Sora, Rikku is no Aeris. They both got two games behind them now, too, KH:CoM is on the GBA (though I don't really think Kairi's in that.....), so that should make their fanbases more solid and such. Not that there won't be SFF, but it'll be NOTHING like Aeris/Sora if you're comparing SFF.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 6:37:46 PM | message detail
Match XXXIV: (3) Rikku vs. (2) Kairi

Previous Matches

Rikku
Defeated Lenneth Valkyrie, 75.00% - 25.00%

Kairi
Defeated Claire Redfield, 52.08% - 47.92%

Analysis:

This is one of the three matches of the female half where the winner might end up with less than 60% comparing that to the male half which looks to have six. Last round Rikku showed that Lenneth was fodder by just barely tripling her. Kairi on the other hand went 50/50 with Claire and even let Claire take a lead up to 500 before the after school vote came and then just flat out destroyed Claire with it and just finishing with over 52%.

If you’ve seen the first round then you would know it is hinted that the Dream Division was probably overrated, this of course would mean Rikku is weaker than we thought. If we were to make Tidus equal with his 2k4 self then Rikku would be expected to get 54.58% against 2k4 Jill and since Kairi did worse on a weaker Resident Evil character that would still put Rikku as the favorite although not by as much as once thought, and yes Claire is weaker than Jill, though if you adjust the WDF only by 52/48.

The reason why this match isn’t that debatable is because of SFF. Back in 2k3 Aeris doubled Sora because of SFF. I’m not expecting Rikku to do that well, but it will keep Kairi from taking an unexpected win. The main appeal at getting Kingdom Hearts was the Final Fantasy character cameo and even though Rikku didn’t have that big of a part a number of fans that play Kingdom Hearts also play FFX/X-2 which is where she gets her appeal from.

Too bad this match is on a weekend where the day vote is spread throughout the day since it would’ve been cool to see if Kairi could make any gains on Rikku. I’m hoping that the SFF is kept at a minimal, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Rikku breaking 60% with ease.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Rikku over Claire Redfield

charmander6000’s Prediction: Rikku wins, 58.52% - 41.48%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/14/2006 6:46:50 PM | message detail
Meh, Rikku would go 65-35 on Terra, I don't see why this match would differ too much from that. I suppose Rikku could do a little better, but probably not.
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99% of people just make up statistics on the spot. If you are part of the 1%, post this in your sig
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 6:47:35 PM | message detail
Still convinced Kairi is as weak as Terra, are we? You'll see!
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caps
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 7:18:10 PM | message detail
I feel like SFF will be all but guaranteed if Kari can't avoid the doubling tomorrow. If we assume Rikku 2k6 = Rikku 2k5 and Kairi gets 33.33%, that puts Claire between Lloyd and Joanna...and, sure, Claire had to drop some from 2k2, I don't want to argue that one bit, but you're also going to have a fun time convincing me that, even though Kairi beat Claire, Kairi post-KH2 is still below Ansem pre-KH2.

I don't really have an idea of where the match should land percentage-wise and I don't think there will be lots of SFF...but if she goes below the doubling tomorrow, adjusting will be necessary (though I don't think we'll actually have anything to adjust them with, so we probably couldn't adjust them without flat-out guessing even if that did happen).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BDawg | Posted 10/14/2006 7:29:18 PM | message detail
Stupid Ada and her stupid 20.75% barrier. I like my blowouts to continue getting blown away.
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Should I start running now?
therealmnm | Posted 10/14/2006 7:35:48 PM | message detail
You know, I hate potential SFF matches when one person is an unknown. If the match ends up a blowout, people can just attribute it to SFF even though that person may be really that weak. On the other hand, if the weaker character stands up a bit in the match, it is automatically assumed that there was no SFF all, even though said character could STILL have been SFF'd.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 7:59:09 PM | message detail
Spazer Division: Round 2 - Match 34 – (3)Rikku vs. (2)Kairi

Moltar’s Analysis

Rikku
Round 1 – 75.00% vs. Lenneth (25.00%)

Rikku pulls an exact tripling on Lenneth

Kairi
Round 1 – 52.08% vs. Claire (47.92%)

Claire nearly pulls the upset, but Kairi is able to squeeze through.

Ha Ha, ah, time for revenge, Kairi! I might have thought you were going to turn up pathetic enough to lose to Claire, and you nearly did! Luckily, the after-school vote pulled through for you. Still, now you get to face true competition! Do your stuff, Rikku!

Anyway, bias aside, things aren’t looking good for Rikku here. Kairi may get the backing from KH fans against a non-Square opponent, but now we have Rikku. She’s not only a main in the Final Fantasy series, but she also has her cameo in the KH series. With Rikku stronger than Kairi, will we be seeing a bit of Square SFF here? Who cares, Kairi is going to end up looking pretty bad here. I’ll be shocked if she impresses against Rikku.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Rikku will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Rikku: 66% - Kairi: 34%



Ulti’s Analysis

As badly as people want to see Kairi get completely killed here, it might not happen. KH fans are complete freaks. Kairi, a character that does almost nothing in any KH title, beat Claire Redfield in the first round. These people would vote for Sora Turd over Anything if it came down to it. I still think Rikku wins this easily, but Kairi might surprise people.

Prediction: Rikku with 57.55%



HM’s Analysis

Rikku

Previous Matches:

Rikku – 75% -- 83,124

Lenneth Valkyrie – 25% -- 27,704

Kairi

Kairi – 52.08% -- 56,291

Claire Redfield – 47.92% -- 51,795

This match has been a foregone conclusion from the beginning. Even with Kairi’s rather impressive performance against Claire Redfield, she still stands absolutely no chance to beat the superior Square character in this face off of awful Partystar favorites. Since we do have something of concrete value on Rikku, we should be able to get a rough idea of where Kairi will stand after this match, assuming there is no severe SFF.

If Kairi does manage to make this interesting, I would not only be shocked but have to agree that there was some serious power from KH2 here. I have a hard time believing that pre-KH2 Kairi is worth much of anything. KH2 Kairi is probably worth a bit more, but how much more remains to be seen. It’d be rather humorous if Kairi did manage to make this interesting and make a close match out of it. I know it’d make Yoshi and Tingle looks fantastic!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Rikku

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Rikku – 60% ; Kairi – 40%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Rikku



Yoblazer’s Analysis

Very cute picture. Kairi may have been able to beat a Resident Evil playable character who has been absent from gaming for five years, but she won't be a threat for a Final Fantasy playable character who's almost as new to the gaming scene as she is. Rikku is simply stronger (stronger than Kratos, who I wouldn't dream of not taking over Kairi), and any SFF here will almost certainly go her way. As with the last match, Kairi will get my vote, but that won't enough for the sweetest victory.

My prediction: Rikku def. Kairi (62-38)



Lopen’s Analysis

Well, here's a match where I've only got one half of the duo right… there are a lot of these this round! I had Claire here. And no, it wasn't because I trusted the 2002 stats one bit, it's because I thought Kairi was fodder.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 7:59:37 PM | message detail
And you know what? I still think she's fodder! I don't care if she managed to squeak by Claire, that didn't convert me. That just makes me think Claire dropped by even more than I thought she did. Rikku, on the other hand, we saw her last year, and she looked pretty good. Definitely not fodder.

Now, considering they're both from popular PS2 RPGs, you could say it's reasonable to expect a hint of the ol' "Same Fanbase Factor" here. Sure, why not? Could be a bit. But when Rikku straight out kills her? You can't blame it all on that… no you can't!

Lopen's Prediction: Rikku with 68.10%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Rikku

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 30th Place [24.33%]

Rikku takes care of Lenneth in the first round, though not by as much as I anticipated -- possible overrating in that whole chain there? Not that she's going to lose this match, obviously...but Samus is going to make this entire division look downright PATHETIC if Rikku can't start looking impressive, and fast.

Kairi

lol N/A

The girl who made Speck of Dust a household name squeaks out in the closest match of the female bracket, and her reward is a setup that is all too familiar to anyone that was around for 2k3 (or to get burned by Sora in 2k4). Yay for having an unreliable value on a character that we'll likely never see again because of it.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Rikku: Kingdom Hearts 2 (PS2)
Kairi: Kingdom Hearts (PS2), Kingdom Hearts 2 (PS2)

Upcoming Releases

Rikku: N/A
Kairi: N/A

Would I ever take Kairi to get 45% on ANY Ryu?

Karma Hunter's Vote: Rikku. Kairi is just so...ugh.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Rikku with 64.56% .

Not a clue here, so I'm just depending on Aeris' precedent to hold (and for Kairi to be far more worthless than Sora).

Upset Potential: 4%

Y'know, Kairi can conceivably turn this into a Pokemon/Metroid or closer...just because Aeris SFFed Sora doesn't mean Rikku can do the same, especially when Rikku's role in KH2 is even more worthless than Kairi's and Rikku ain't too adored by the FFX fanbase in the first place. Of course, I don't think Kairi is much of anything, either...but if Claire really maintains a semblance of popularity (like, say, near where I think Jill is at), Kairi can conceivably win this. There is that pesky 45% on Ryu there...but what if it was a fluke?

Agh, I'm just upset-hungry in the starved female bracket.

Upset Prediction: Kairi with 52%



Guest’s Analysis - FantasyFreak999

Well, here we have a Square vs. Square match, so you know that there will be SFF involved. The question
is, will it go to Rikku, who hails from the almighty Final Fantasy series, or to Kairi, who comes to us from the Kingdom Heart series.

Sorry Kairi, but FF beats out KH any day. Even without the SFF though, Rikku would still beat out Kairi. If we look at the extrapolated ranks of Rikku and Riku (wow, I never thought I’d actually put those two in the same sentence), Rikku came out ahead of Riku. Seeing as how Riku is easily more popular than Kairi, it pretty much means that she’s gonna lose.

The real question now is how much Kairi is gonna lose by. I think a doubling is a given, but can Rikku pull off a tripling? I’m gonna say yes (It IS Kairi after all). I just cant see Kairi being that strong, even if she is a product of Square.

FantasyFreak999’s pick: Rikku – 76.8%, Kairi – 23.2%



Crew Consensus: Rikku percentages are all over the place...
Draco1214 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:10:30 PM | message detail
I think Kairi is going to surprise tomorrow. She's not as weak as people are thinking.
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Character Battle V Score - 31/34 points
Current Prediction - Rikku vs. Kairi
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 8:15:34 PM | message detail
in this face off of AMAZING Partystar favorites.

Fixed!

As much as I want Kairi to be strong and prove all you lamers wrong, I also want Rikku to go crazy and get like 80%. Rikku's the much better character, anyway.

No matter what happens, at least one of the best characters ever will be advancing! Too bad Zelda isn't the one seed in this division so the next match in this division could have had two good characters as well!
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 8:15:42 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: today's bracket-support for Samus will be half of what Sub-Zero had yesterday.





Ahem.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 8:16:30 PM | message detail
Whoops, I forgot Yuna was a one seed too.

Why isn't she the one seed in this division!? We could have had the amazing Yuna/Rikku match. ;_;
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:21:16 PM | message detail
I know, n00b avenger. We'll never know about Marle, so it's rather unfair for her. At least with Kairi we have Claire Redfield to help a little...and I suppose Jill Valentine to help give an idea, as well.

I would think Rikku vs. Kairi would at least have SFF equal to Cloud vs. Auron, but I wouldn't put it past me to see Rikku gaining 8-10% on SFF. They are on games on the same system... Before SFF, I'd guess Rikku wins with 56-58%.

Yesmar hasn't been doing it...I'll cover him today.

Extreme Scenario One
Kairi with 50.85%

What can I say...? Bowser was overrated like mad, and RE4 sparked interest in other RE games, helping Claire, and at the same time, Kairi's proven to be stronger than Axel.

Extreme Scenario Two
Rikku with 76.57%

How? Mass SFF-fest...bigger than anyone imagined it would be, combined with Kairi being well below the fodder line regardless.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:22:10 PM | message detail
Whoops, I meant therealmnm, not The n00b avenger.

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charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:32:35 PM | message detail
It's been over 6 hours that Samus has stayed between .74 and .77
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
shadow8021 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:34:57 PM | message detail
Samus > Male Bracket
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Character Battle Score: 30/32
Today's Pick: Samus Aran
cyko | Posted 10/14/2006 8:42:12 PM | message detail
It's been over 6 hours that Samus has stayed between .74 and .77

that's actually as surprising to me as the size of this blowout!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 8:57:58 PM | message detail
Rikku 44.09% 36,215
Claire 55.91% 45,927
TOTAL VOTES 82,142

lol x-stats

Samus with 80% of the brackets

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 8:59:05 PM | message detail
Samus with 93.33% support.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 8:59:22 PM | message detail
Samus with 93.12% of the brackets.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 9:00:15 PM | message detail
Rikku 69.23%

9
Kairi 30.77%

4
TOTAL VOTES 13

Woo!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Rikku vs. Kairi - Bracket: Rikku - Vote: Rikku (30/34)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/14/2006 9:00:25 PM | message detail
Rikku 71.43%
10
Kairi 28.57%
4
TOTAL VOTES 14


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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Rikku with 65.63%
cyko | Posted 10/14/2006 9:00:30 PM | message detail
this topic is surprisingly dead for the start of a new match..... >_>

i also think that the combination of Bowser's division being overrated and the extreme power of Kingdom Hearts 2 is gonna make this match a lot closer than most people think.keep in mind that Tidus and Rikku were in the same division last year and Rikku was expected to get 44.79% against Tidus - which is actually less than Claire got in 2002.


Samus with 94.6% of the brackets!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 9:02:32 PM | message detail
Kairi is almost certainly evading SFF here.

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charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 9:02:33 PM | message detail
Over 93% predicted Samus
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 9:02:38 PM | message detail
Kairi's doing nice for the first two minutes. If she holds up through the night, the day-vote could make her and Claire both look decent enough.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:02:57 PM | message detail
Round 2

Spazer Divisional Semifinals- Match 2

Rikku (3) vs Kairi (2)


http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2501
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2502

In round 1, Rikku got an exact tripling one one of the most obscure stinkers in the female half. Kairi went toe to toe with Claire before decimating her with the afterschool vote.

Not much to say here. Kairi is still a complete unknown, and this match won't change that. People are expecting Aeris/Sora 2.0, but despite Kairi being nowhere near Sora, Rikku is even farther from Aeris.

Looking at the x-stats, and for simplicity's sake, Kairi = Claire 2k2

Rikku 44.09% 36,215
Claire 55.91% 45,927
TOTAL VOTES 82,142

lol x-stats

TuRtLe's Prediction: Rikku with 58.12%
TuRtLe's Bracket: Rikku
TuRtLe's Vote: Another match I will likely abstain. lol female bracket

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 9:03:43 PM | message detail
Alright, seems as if Rikku is slowly going up. Kairi's start seemed a little too good.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Rikku vs. Kairi - Bracket: Rikku - Vote: Rikku (30/34)
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 9:04:01 PM | message detail
I demand more people talk about this incredible match right here!
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MegaReincarnate | Posted 10/14/2006 9:04:03 PM | message detail
Kairi's doing nice for the first two minutes. If she holds up through the night, the day-vote could make her and Claire both look decent enough.

At least until Samus blows Rikku's ass out of the water.
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Hispanics 2 | Whites 5
Asians 5 | Blacks 3
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 9:04:14 PM | message detail
Heh, why did I say something stupid like that in the first two minutes? Rikku's gaining like mad...Kairi got the board vote?

93.66% had Samus...

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:04:43 PM | message detail
93.61% eh? I guess that's to be expected when 2 characters in her fourpack are relative unknowns and the other one is an obvious joke entry

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 9:04:43 PM | message detail
Let's not be so quick to breag BT.

Hopefully Claire didn't fall as much as many of us thought...though that would make Kasumi's performance look that much more ridiculous, fighting-game SFF or not.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
King Bowser | Posted 10/14/2006 9:05:58 PM | message detail
Rikku 61.72% 819
Kairi 38.28% 508
TOTAL VOTES 1327


Pretty good start for Kairi. Her doing well here clearly helps the green dino against Dante!!

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:06:14 PM | message detail
From HaRRicH Posted 10/15/2006 12:04:43 AM
Let's not be so quick to breag BT.

Hopefully Claire didn't fall as much as many of us thought...though that would make Kasumi's performance look that much more ridiculous, fighting-game SFF or not.


Quick to brag? About Claire being fodderific?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 9:06:32 PM | message detail
Rikku 61.72% 819
Kairi 38.28% 508
TOTAL VOTES 1327

I can see Kairi bringing it down to under 60%
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/14/2006 9:06:52 PM | message detail
Rikku 44.09% 36,215
Claire 55.91% 45,927
TOTAL VOTES 82,142

lol x-stats


Yes, we get it now.

Don't let me point to Terra/The Boss comparisons.
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Samus vs. Ada Wong / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus (30/32)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Abstain
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:07:32 PM | message detail
Any bragging rights I had from calling Claire on her utter weakness I lost when Boss performed better statistically than Ocelot would.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 9:08:01 PM | message detail
Nah, I meant posting your analysis in here as soon as we saw Kairi would be gettin' 40~%.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:08:48 PM | message detail
And how the hell do you guys remember that I spent most of the pre-contest days calling Claire a complete loser? That was over a month ago O_o

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/14/2006 9:08:50 PM | message detail
I had from calling Claire on her utter weakness

She's not really THAT weak, ya know.
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Samus vs. Ada Wong / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus (30/32)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Rikku / Vote: Abstain
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:09:33 PM | message detail
I just decided that I'm going to follow charmander's lead and post my analyses here, since noone seems to be looking at my actual topic ;__;

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:09:59 PM | message detail
She's not really THAT weak, ya know.

Compared to her 2k2 value?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 10/14/2006 9:10:48 PM | message detail
!!!

holy wow!! now that's an update i can get behind!! go Kairi!!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 9:10:59 PM | message detail
Now who's weaker than Terra!?
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caps
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 9:11:04 PM | message detail
When I said Kairi will bring it below 60% I didn't mean she would so it on the next update.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 9:11:33 PM | message detail
And when I posted my analysis, Rikku was still well over 63% and climbing. Granted, it would make sense that the board vote would go to her since there seems to be an intense dislike of Kairi around here.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.