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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 389

The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/14/2006 9:27:32 AM | message detail
Tomoyo?
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/14/2006 9:30:18 AM | message detail
yeah, that was it. I am bad with names.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/14/2006 9:31:15 AM | message detail
I remember because that's Sakura' friend from Card Captor Sakura.

Not a proud statement on my behalf I suppose.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/14/2006 9:50:26 AM | message detail
Everyone seen that topic by smasherx? The one with the EPE theory

Interesting stuff, sad, but interesting

And OWNED that he didn't follow his so called theory


Yes, because clearly such a magically convenient theory that he does not reveal and is able to talk about without providing any concrete proof of its existence means he is a genius!!!!fortyfive. That topic has the potential to be a goldmine of hilarity if he milks it properly.
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/14/2006 10:28:10 AM | message detail
I'm really shocked at all the low predictions for Samus > Ada. Was it Samus' weakness, or Ada's strength you had in mind when making those predictions? (Genuinely curious, and not just being a dick for once!)

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/14/2006 10:28:35 AM | message detail

Yes, because clearly such a magically convenient theory that he does not reveal and is able to talk about without providing any concrete proof of its existence means he is a genius!!!!fortyfive. That topic has the potential to be a goldmine of hilarity if he milks it properly.


hey bellis wanna maek out
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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Gaddswell | Posted 10/14/2006 10:30:53 AM | message detail
I'm really shocked at all the low predictions for Samus > Ada. Was it Samus' weakness, or Ada's strength you had in mind when making those predictions? (Genuinely curious, and not just being a dick for once!)

I'm pretty sure that people were thinking of how well Leon did against Bowser when accounting for today's match. That and the fact Nidoran F did get 18% on Samus. Ada coming off by tripling Jade also made her look better heading into this match.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/14/2006 10:32:12 AM | message detail
Jade was met with a resounding "who?" When the bracket was released, everyone expecting slaughter... or they should have been. And I'm telling you Leon's performance was in conjuction with Bowser being overrated!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Master Moltar | Posted 10/14/2006 10:34:49 AM | message detail
Ada's strength. That, and I never would have imagined Aga being so close to Nidoran F. Guess I really underestimated that Pokemon.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Ada - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (28/32)
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/14/2006 10:37:28 AM | message detail
I underestimated Nidoran F prior to the match with Samus, but after I was convinced it was her strength and not Samus' weakness. Pokemon is pretty big around here. After it's performance on Metroid, we should have at least had an inkling she might perform well. I guess the whole joke character thing got the better of us.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
wavedash101 | Posted 10/14/2006 10:45:05 AM | message detail
Its obvious people underestimated the power of humor. Alot of people voted Nidoran F for the joke on top of LUE, LL, (who both did for the joke as well) and possibly the Pokemon fans (more for the series than the character). Unless NF is really that close to Ada...

One things for sure...we have no solid value on Samus yet in the slightest, and we wont until Tifa's match with Samus.

Assuming Tifa doesnt do anything crazy...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/14/2006 10:45:59 AM | message detail
hey bellis wanna maek out

surer
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
transience | Posted 10/14/2006 10:45:59 AM | message detail
yeah, was more Ada than Samus. blame Leon.

it's not like Samus is doing all that much more.. most expected a tripling and we got a quad.
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xyzzy
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 10:49:02 AM | message detail
Heh, I keep seeing all of these references to Leon about today's match, and I have to remind myself that they're not talking about me.

And I'm shocked that people actually thought Ada could avoid the tripling. That would require Jade to be above 10% on BL...My preliminary stats aren't as big of a joke as you think, folks! They had Samus winning with 77-78% here, and that's with Jade at 9% on BL. Looks like she'll be lower than that!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 10:52:56 AM | message detail
Also, that Sub-Zero prediction percentage is awesome.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/14/2006 10:54:26 AM | message detail
Also, that Sub-Zero prediction percentage is awesome.

Isn't it like the second lowest prediction percentage now?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/14/2006 11:05:25 AM | message detail
Nevermind, just checked o_o breaking records chyea buddy.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 11:08:43 AM | message detail
Congrats to the 2s! It was a tough match, but every one of them had Sub-Zero over Master Chief!

Heh, that just made me laugh upon reading it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
transience | Posted 10/14/2006 11:14:51 AM | message detail
that's because I have a 3! without me, the 3's probably go perfect!
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xyzzy
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/14/2006 11:20:43 AM | message detail
All Time Lowest Prediction Percentages:

01. 06.00% - Cloud Strife vs Sephiroth (2003 Characters Final)
02. 07.16% - Super Smash Bros. Melee vs StarCraft (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
03. 07.91% - StarCraft vs The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (2004 Games Sweet Sixteen)
04. 12.47% - Vincent Valentine vs Squall Leonhart (2005 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
05. 12.80% - Link vs Mario (2002 Characters Final)
06. 13.40% - Cloud Strife vs Link (2003 Characters Semifinal)
07. 14.18% - Super Smash Bros.Melee vs Final Fantasy X (2004 Games Quarterfinal)
08. 14.50% - Mega Man vs Solid Snake (2003 Characters Quartefinal)
09. 14.60% - Crono vs Solid Snake (2002 Characters Quarterfinal)
10. 14.76% - Diablo vs Kefka (2005 Villains Quarterfinal)
11. 15.62% - StarCraft vs Kingdom Hearts (2004 Games Round 2)
12. 17.30% - Scorpion vs Pac-Man (2002 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
13. 20.27% - Sub-Zero vs Master Chief (2006 Characters Round 1)
14. 21.70% - Sephiroth vs Mega Man (2003 Characters Semifinal)
15. 22.03% - Super Smash Bros. Melee vs Grand Theft Auto: Vice City (2004 Games Round 2)
16. 22.56% - Frog vs Master Chief (2004 Characters Sweet Sixteen)
17. 24.09% - StarCraft vs Halo (2004 Games Round 1)
18. 24.20% - Magus vs Ganondorf (2003 Characters Round 2)
19. 24.49% - Crono vs Mega Man (2005 Characters Semifinal)
20. 24.63% - Chrono Trigger vs Super Mario Bros. 3 (2004 Games Semifinal)
21. 25.14% - Vincent Valentine vs Dante (2005 Characters Round 2)
22. 26.17% - Mario vs Crono (2005 Characters Final)
23. 28.80% - Alucard vs Duke Nukem (2002 Characters Round 2)
24. 29.90% - Kingdom Hearts vs Castlevania (2006 Series Sweet Sixteen)
25. 30.13% - Diablo vs M. Bison (2005 Villains Sweet Sixteen)

2002 Characters: 4
2003 Characters: 5
2004 Games: 7
2004 Characters: 1
2005 Villains: 2
2005 Characters: 4
2006 Series: 1
2006 Characters: 1

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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
transience | Posted 10/14/2006 11:23:20 AM | message detail
it's still hard to believe that SSBM had 8% of the brackets to win its division.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 11:29:19 AM | message detail
So, how many brackets will be behind Auron when he takes that fourpack?

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
King Bowser | Posted 10/14/2006 11:30:12 AM | message detail
And I'm telling you Leon's performance was in conjuction with Bowser being overrated!

This is the perfect time for a hearty "lol ec."

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 11:30:20 AM | message detail
Yeah, I know, but it was a division full of casual killers (back then. Now, SSBM would have its fair share of support): Halo, FFX, Zelda, and GTA.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/14/2006 11:43:06 AM | message detail
Auron should have a prediction percentage in the high 40s
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Samus with 74.03%
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 11:51:33 AM | message detail
High 40's? You do know MC is in the four-pack, maybe low 40's.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 12:49:34 PM | message detail
Man, leave it to the female bracket to completely deaden the stats topic.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 12:56:45 PM | message detail
Here's some Round 1 Vote Total Stats for everyone...

Average Female Totals - 109,584
Average Male Totals - 118,946
Overall Average - 114,265
Average Week Day - 111,977
Average Weekend - 121,127
Highest Total - 130,058 (Luigi vs. Zero)
Lowest Total - 97,314 (Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance)

Forget the fact I don't know if Saturday and Sunday are equally good at attracting votes...and forget holidays, if there were any.

While most of the highest vote totals came on the weekends, the following matches had rather impressive totals during the week: Luigi/Zero, MC/Sub-Zero, and Sora/Tingle. The Boss vs. Celes gets a dishonorable mention, getting a below average vote count despite being on a weekend.

Highest Vote Totals

1)Luigi vs. Zero (130,058)
2)Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero (128,290)
3)Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine (128,006)*
4)Tifa Lockheart vs. Ivy Valentine (126,164)*
5)Riku vs. Yoshi (123,719)*
6)Sora vs. Tingle (123,744)
7)Yuna vs. Roll (123,217)*
8)Kirby vs. Prince of Persia (122,003)*
9)Bowser vs. Leon Kennedy (120,697)
10)Dante vs. Ryu Hayabusa (119,470)*

* = weekend = match.

Most Pathetic Vote Totals
1)Lara Croft vs. Alyx Vance (97,314)
2)Ada Wong vs. Jade (98,167)
3)Terra Branford vs. Sarah Kerrigan (99,013)
4)Joanna Dark vs. Cortana (100,432)
5)KOS-MOS vs. Amy Rose (102,509)
6)Chun Li vs. Kasumi (104,317)
7)Kairi vs. Claire Redfield (108,086)
8)Sonic the Hedgehog vs. CATS (108,682)
9)Princess Peach vs. Princess Daisy (109,034)
10)Solid Snake vs. Soma Cruz (109,184)

100,000-Vote Achievers
Zelda

90,000-Vote Achievers
Samus Aran
Tifa Lockheart
Princess Peach
Yuna
Sora

80,000-Vote Achievers
Rikku
Aeris Gainsborough
Solid Snake
Squall Leonhart
Mega Man
Sonic the Hedgehog
Crono

80,000 > 90,000? o_O

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 12:59:47 PM | message detail
Forget the fact I don't know if Saturday and Sunday are equally good at attracting votes...and forget holidays, if there were any.

Luigi/Zero was Columbus Day/Canadian Thanksgiving

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 1:14:33 PM | message detail
Saturdays seem to be better in general than Sundays.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/14/2006 1:19:57 PM | message detail
5)Riku vs. Yoshi (123,719)*
6)Sora vs. Tingle (123,744)

Those two should be switched around

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 1:22:28 PM | message detail
Sheesh...any comments besides corrections? By the way, they weren't ordered wrong, but I made a typo...it's 125,000 in Riku/Yoshi, not 123,000.

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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/14/2006 1:25:51 PM | message detail
It wasn't really a "correction" so much as it was a comment. There are exceptions to Saturday > Sunday (Aeris/Marle, for example, got outdrawn by Yuna/Roll), but in general, it seems to be that way. Tifa/Ivy, Vincent/Ganon, and Riku/Yoshi were all on Saturdays.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 2: (1) Solid Snake
Haste_2 | Posted 10/14/2006 1:50:50 PM | message detail
Yeah, you're right about that. Also, Sora vs. Tingle was surprisingly popular...was anything going on that day? Also, I remember when MONDAYS happened to have the highest vote totals on average in the old contests (smack in the middle of summer), and Sora/Tingle was on Monday...maybe Mondays are still slightly above the other weekdays. Of course, Snake/Soma had crappy vote totals, and it was on Monday...I blame that on the female bracket causing a drop in interest, and it took a few days for interest to be revived! Okay, now I'm just saying random stupid things...

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BDawg | Posted 10/14/2006 2:35:14 PM | message detail
It had to be Tingle's massive strength. And woo match excitment will Samus manage the quad or not...
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Should I start running now?
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 3:21:21 PM | message detail
The reason Mondays were so popular in 2k2 was that all of Cloud's matches was on a Monday and boosted the average.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:28:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 3:32:37 PM | message detail
...Ze -- oh, Samus. Right.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Samurai7 | Posted 10/14/2006 3:33:00 PM | message detail
lol zelda
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:33:37 PM | message detail
Ze... o wate i mess up.

Let me rephrase that: Samus has to average something in the area of 275 votes per update from now until the end of the match in order to break 100k. I'd say it's entirely possible right now.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:35:47 PM | message detail
I think the error came from me comparing what zelda was doing at this point compared to samus, since she's the only one to break 100k so far. >_>

Samus is also over 8k ahead of where she was in her last match at this point, and she finished with over 93k votes last time. Of course since this is a saturday the voting patterns will probably be a bit different. Just something I'm throwing out there.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:38:16 PM | message detail
Actually I'm wrong. She finished with over 95k votes last time... even better.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Samurai7 | Posted 10/14/2006 3:38:30 PM | message detail
Nidoran F > half the female bracket
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:40:55 PM | message detail
While true, that isn't exactly saying much. >_>
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/14/2006 3:41:52 PM | message detail
Looks like Samus is on pace for 99k.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/14/2006 3:44:58 PM | message detail
Looks like Samus is on pace for 99k.

Maybe. It's probably going to be close, and the slowdown near the end will probably bring her to just over 200 votes an update in the last hour, but she's doing a good job at slaughtering the average she needs to achieve right now... so it's hard to say if 100k will be breached or not.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 3:46:07 PM | message detail
Come on Zelda! Don't let that female impostor break your record!
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caps
HaRRicH | Posted 10/14/2006 4:09:54 PM | message detail
Nah, I'd say Zelda's record is safe, heh.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Osfan | Posted 10/14/2006 4:18:20 PM | message detail
So what are the prediction percentages set for tommorow? I mean both are hated but Kairi is hated worse = random percentages?
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/14/2006 4:56:00 PM | message detail
In 2 hours and 35 minutes, this match's % has moved 0.01%. >_>
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caps