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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 389

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trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 5:34:04 PM | message detail
RUN FOR COVER, THE FEMALE BRACKET IS APPROACHING


*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.GameFAQsContests.com
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Extrapolated Standings for All Contests (links to all brackets are on the left):
http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/drupal/



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, and thanks to RockMFR for finding the missing ones!
http://sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

UltimaterializerX's Contest Sites (some offensive language):
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

NGamer64's Archive Site and (lol) X-Stats Sim (some offensive language):
http://thengamer.com/gamefaqs/
http://thengamer.com/xstats
http://thengamer.com/stats

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251

HaRRicH's Fourpack of Fun Board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=585007

TRE's poll listing (every poll!):
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Polls.html

Aprosenf's Poll Script:
http://www.geocities.com/aprosenf/allpolls.txt

GameFAQs' Top 100 Games (down for now, so here's a new link):
http://transience.paragonsigma.com/top100.txt

!yawa tsoP
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:34:48 PM | message detail
NOOOOOOOOOOO
---
Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:35:35 PM | message detail
Jill > Peach!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 5:36:06 PM | message detail
Dammit I hate girls ;_;
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 5:36:11 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Dekar TKB | Posted 10/13/2006 5:36:12 PM | message detail
At least it's only 8 days until the contest becomes remotely interesting, this time!
---
Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force DA!
Captain Falcon for Sc2k6! www.rpgdl.com
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 5:36:41 PM | message detail
Jill > Peach!

TRUTH!
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:36:49 PM | message detail
And at least there's a remotely interesting match in the females bracket this time!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 5:39:32 PM | message detail
Sorry Leon, but you met your lifetime quota of successful crazy upsets today. Thus Jill > Peach has an approximately 0% chance of happening* per my statistics.

*unless Heroic Mario hops on a Peach > Tifa bandwagon right before the match, in which case it's an even money upset
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:40:31 PM | message detail
I actually took Jill in that match, though I'm not confident in her at all.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:40:31 PM | message detail
NOOOO tomorrows match is so boring. Come back male bracket!!!
---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Dekar TKB | Posted 10/13/2006 5:40:38 PM | message detail
I give Jill>Peach a generous 4.5% chance of happening!

I'd love to see a close match or an upset there, but...I just can't see it happening.
---
Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force DA!
Captain Falcon for Sc2k6! www.rpgdl.com
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:40:48 PM | message detail
The difference is that Jill > Peach isn't crazy, nor is it an upset. Peach > Jill is the crazy pick!

Plus, one crazy upset pick just opens the floodgates for me! Squall > Snake, and Sonic > Male Bracket, here we come!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:41:24 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:41:51 PM | message detail
Wait...when did Jill lose any chance of beating Peach, especially after Leon friggin' Kennedy came within 5% of Bowser?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:42:32 PM | message detail
Havent we had enough upsets to justify your crazy picks, Leon?
---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 5:44:19 PM | message detail
when Sheena ripped percentage off her like it was no problem!

Jill's got a chance there, but Peach is definitely the favourite. I took Jill at first but changed later on.
---
xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:45:35 PM | message detail
Did I see Jill in RE4? Didnt think so. Leon increasing does not make Jill increase automatically...
---
Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
xp1337 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:46:05 PM | message detail
Sonic > Male Bracket

Preach it!

Crono is so screwed
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (028/031) MC v Sub-Zero
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:47:26 PM | message detail
when Sheena ripped percentage off her like it was no problem!

Then Crono is in BIG trouble!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:48:42 PM | message detail
But seriously, what did Peach do to become the "definite" favorite? Nintendo's performance hasn't exactly been indicating some sort of second boost, and I'd expect Jill to be closer to Leon than I would expect Peach to be to Bowser.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 5:49:52 PM | message detail
Peach is still an unknown. based on where I expect Sheena to be though, Jill looks about the same as in previous years. I think Peach is slightly above that.
---
xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:51:02 PM | message detail
So expecting Peach to be slightly above where you think Jill is based on Sheena gives her the status of definite favorite?

I see.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 5:53:27 PM | message detail
you're caught up on the word definite. would you prefer just plain old favourite?

based on board consensus, she's obviously the favourite and nothing has really changed my mind there. not to say they're always right (lol today), but they are more often than not.
---
xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
King Bowser | Posted 10/13/2006 5:54:02 PM | message detail
Peach > Jill is the crazy pick!

Crazy, you say? There's nothing crazy about something that is going to happen! Mario characters are going to rock the second round with style!

---
"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:54:30 PM | message detail
Well, I'm wondering how she got the status of favorite at all, to the point where somebody is giving Jill less than 5% to win and somebody else saying it's "crazy."
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
xp1337 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:55:06 PM | message detail
Bowser'll make a comeback! Crono only gets 48%! Leon = Ganon?
---
xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (028/031) MC v Sub-Zero
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:55:08 PM | message detail
Psh, the only Mario character that's going to be advancing past the second round is Luigi!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 5:55:40 PM | message detail
Crazy, you say? There's nothing crazy about something that is going to happen! Mario characters are going to rock the second round with style!

And just like that, Peach, Yoshi, and Luigi's futures turned a bit less bright !!
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:56:48 PM | message detail
I'm not so sure Peach would be much stronger than Wario.
---
Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
King Bowser | Posted 10/13/2006 5:57:42 PM | message detail
And just like that, Peach, Yoshi, and Luigi's futures turned a bit less bright !!

Haw haw!

We'll see what you have to say about that when all three of them are winning and the Koopa King gives Crono a scare!

---
"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 5:58:44 PM | message detail
I'm not confident in Peach being much more than Wario by any stretch of the imagination. However, what decided that match was me asking myself, "In Jill v. Wario, who would I take?" and I found myself struggling.

Because of that, I decided to err on the side of Nintendo and go with Peach.
---
*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
King Bowser | Posted 10/13/2006 5:58:46 PM | message detail
Oh, and Zelda is so getting the blowout of the round again!

---
"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 5:59:37 PM | message detail
...Why did you struggle with Jill/Wario? Wario ain't breaking the fodder line by much at all.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:01:09 PM | message detail
Ironically, the reason I picked Jill is because at the time I was think "Who would win: Peach or Wario?" and I struggled, so I thought...yeah, Jill's got this easily.
---
Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
BDawg | Posted 10/13/2006 6:02:21 PM | message detail
Hey finish #388 or you don't get any dessert!
---
Should I start running now?
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/13/2006 6:24:51 PM | message detail
RUN FOR COVER, THE FEMALE BRACKET IS APPROACHING

NOOOOOOOOOOOO

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/13/2006 7:31:57 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero beatin Chief's ass = win. Did Chief gain the lead at any point in the day?
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:01:28 PM | message detail
All round one matches with <50% Prediction Percentage:

1. Sub-Zero over Master Chief: 20.27%
2. StarCraft over Halo: 24.09%
3. Castlevania over Halo: 31.49%
4. WarCraft over Grand Theft Auto 33.94%
5. Knuckles over Magus: 35.08%
6. Vivi over Donkey Kong: 35.13%
7. Tommy Vercetti over Kefka: 37.66%
8. Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot: 38.36%
9. Master Hand over Kuja: 39.11%
10. Vincent Valentine over Ganondorf: 39.39%
11. Shadow over Wario: 42.10%
12. Morrigan over Spyro: 42.30%
13. KOS-MOS over Crash: 42.50%
14. Knuckles over Kefka: 43.05%
15. Kefka over Pac-Man 43.50%
16. Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman: 43.62%
17. Tina Armstrong over Gordon Freeman: 43.70%
18. Frog over Liquid Snake: 44.33%
19. Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur: 45.45%
20. Tails over Viewtiful Joe: 46.30%
21. Zero over Scorpion: 47.30%
22. Ganondorf over Tidus: 47.70%
23. Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter II: 47.83%
24. XenoGears over Pokemon Gold/Silver/Crystal: 48.20%
25. Diablo over Ridley: 48.32%
26. Ryu Hayabusa over Jill Valentine: 48.56%
27. Ryu over Kratos: 48.99%

By Contest:
2002 Characters: 2
2003 Characters: 5
2004 Games: 4
2004 Characters: 5
2005 Villains: 2
2005 Characters: 4
2006 Series: 2
2006 Characters: 3

NOT EVEN CLOSE!
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Typhoid Larry | Posted 10/13/2006 9:03:20 PM | message detail
Wooo!
---
Captain of the Sony Defense Force / Corporal of the Droid Army of NGG
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:03:39 PM | message detail
All Time Most Popular Polls

01. 158527 - The Legend of Zelda vs Final Fantasy (2006 Series)
02. 157773 - Final Fantasy vs Super Mario Bros. (2006 Series)
03. 147637 - Cloud Strife vs Link (2003 Characters)
04. 137513 - Metal Gear vs Kingdom Hearts (2006 Series)
05. 136154 - Final Fantasy vs Resident Evil (2006 Series)
06. 135562 - Final Fantasy vs Mega Man (2006 Series)
07. 134604 - The Legend of Zelda vs Metroid (2006 Series)
08. 133005 - Mario vs Crono (2003 Characters)
09. 132410 - The Legend of Zelda vs Metal Gear (2006 Series)
10. 130058 - Luigi vs Zero (2006 Characters)
11. 129977 - The Legend of Zelda vs Mega Man X (2006 Series)
12. 129703 - Mario vs Cloud Strife (2002 Characters)
13. 128290 - Sub-Zero vs Master Chief (2006 Characters)
14. 128286 - Kingdom Hearts vs Castlevania (2006 Series)
15. 128006 - Vincent Valentine vs Ganondorf (2006 Characters)
16. 127218 - WarCraft vs Grand Theft Auto (2006 Series)
17. 126178 - Super Smash Bros. vs Sonic the Hedgehog (2006 Series)
18. 126164 - Tifa vs Ivy Valentine (2006 Characters)
19. 125719 - Yoshi vs Riku (2006 Characters)
20. 125259 - Metroid vs Pokemon (2006 Series)
21. 125208 - Final Fantasy vs Diablo (2006 Series)
22. 124443 - Cloud Strife vs Sephiroth (2003 Characters)
23. 124353 - Link vs Cloud Strife (2004 Characters)
24. 124192 - Sephiroth vs Mega Man (2003 Characters)
25. 123919 - Super Mario Bros. vs Super Smash Bros. (2006 Series)

2002 Characters - 1
2003 Characters - 4
2004 Games - 0
2004 Characters - 1
2005 Villains - 0
2005 Characters - 0
2006 Series - 14
2006 Characters - 5

lol 13th on Friday the 13th, by four votes no less.
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:03:44 PM | message detail
O_O at the percent

and even though I got the match wrong I went from 42 to tied at 65.
---
"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/13/2006 9:04:06 PM | message detail
Way to not give me credit for breaking the news to you, Guy. YOU'RE ON NOTICE.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:05:01 PM | message detail
Hey, I refreshed right at midnight! I just took me a minute or two to update the list.
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/13/2006 9:05:28 PM | message detail
Samus Aran 79.78% 1160
Ada Wong 20.22% 294
TOTAL VOTES 1454



Samus is kicking ass here!

---
"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2006 9:06:15 PM | message detail
Ada Wong=Nidoran F

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:04 PM | message detail
Samus > both brackets

Believe!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Samus vs. Ada - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (28/32)
cyko | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:10 PM | message detail
O___O

wow. i was seriously NOT expecting Ada Wong to be as weak as Nidoran ******* Female. anyone still doubting Samus's ability to win this contest?

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:39 PM | message detail
Samus > both brackets

It was always going to be like that. <3

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:57 PM | message detail
Y HELO THAR FIRST FIVE MINUTES
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!