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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 388

Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:23:00 PM | message detail
You guys ranked Ada Wong awful low...is she really that weak?

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:23:36 PM | message detail
Not to seem *too* resentful of Peach, but there are few characters I've seen as overestimated as her in the past year. There are a good number of people on the board that think she's on Luigi's level or even above. DK I suppose has maybe a 0.001% chance of happening...but Luigi?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/13/2006 6:23:45 PM | message detail
1) Samus Aran
2) Mega Man
3) Sonic the Hedgehog
4) Crono
5) Solid Snake
6) Bowser
7) VV
8) Auron
9) Squall (6-9 might as well be even)
10) Zelda
11) Tifa
12) Aeris Gainsborough
13) Luigi
14) Yoshi
15) Dante
16) Sora
17) Kirby
18) Ryu
19) Yuna
20) Rikku
21) Chun-Li
22) Peach
23) Sub-Zero
24) Jill Valentine
25) KOS-MOS
26) Lara
27) Gordon Freeman
28) Kairi
29) Ada Wong
30) Terra Branford
31) The Boss
32) Joanna Dark

*This is where I think they'll wind up by the end, not where they are positioned based off Round 1 performances
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 6:23:57 PM | message detail
My stats have Ada pegged around the 18% mark, and actually ABOVE Claire Redfield. Honestly, I don't see Jade breaking 10% on BL.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:24:16 PM | message detail
and Zelda > Bowser? wow. Solid Snake says differently, picture or not! (not that his picture was much better vs. Zelda!)

Any of those seven characters in that tier are interchangable. Now that I think about it I'd take Bowser over Zelda.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
nintendogirl1 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:24:31 PM | message detail
Out of the remaining 32, bearing in mind she's facing Samus?
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Yeah.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 6:24:47 PM | message detail
Nah, I don't think Bowser/Zelda is a match that would change based on the day it was held.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/13/2006 6:26:11 PM | message detail
Zelda will be near Bowser next year, but she's definitely not at his level right now.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:26:47 PM | message detail
I'd expect Squall to only beat Auron with about 51% (before any SFF) and they are 7 spots apart.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:27:09 PM | message detail
those antivotes don't go away though! they're just part of his natural strength.

Yeah I know. What I really mean is those antivotes seem the appear and disappear from match to match. He is impossible to predict in practically any match versus a character above the fodder line. I'm starting to think MC is in league with Gordan. FPS conspiracy???

>_> Hmmmm....

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:01 PM | message detail
In what matches have MC antivotes not made their presence known? I can't think of a single one.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:14 PM | message detail
no, that's not it.. he's just nonlinear. his antivotes actually aren't the problem, it's the people who will vote for him over every other character in the field. I would love to see Link vs. Master Chief - I guarantee you he breaks 30% and maybe 35%.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:22 PM | message detail
...Crash Bandicoot.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:56 PM | message detail
I would love to see Link vs. Master Chief - I guarantee you he breaks 30% and maybe 35%.

I'd go bet that he didn't break 30%.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:59 PM | message detail
Crash is above the fodder line?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/13/2006 6:29:17 PM | message detail
If anti-votes were present in MC/Crono, then if the little anti-MS whiners just got a life, MC might be potenial top 15 material.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:29:35 PM | message detail
Bah, I forgot about Crash. Ugh...that was just MC v. MC-antivotes!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:30:32 PM | message detail
Crash vs. Master Chief had to be the anti-voter's worst nightmare.

"what.... how do I do this!!!"
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
BDawg | Posted 10/13/2006 6:32:08 PM | message detail
There should be a third option which if it draws over 50% the match is instantly destroyed and a new match chosen at random.
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Should I start running now?
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/13/2006 6:34:13 PM | message detail
Peach would destroy Donkey Kong. And Sub-Zero. And Master Chief. And Jill Valentine. And put up respectable numbers on Tifa.
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caps
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:34:41 PM | message detail
I'll ask again...

Is Crash above the fodder line or below it?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:34:50 PM | message detail
that's not true - no one's ever played Mario 3!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:34:57 PM | message detail
Crash is below.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:37:04 PM | message detail
Crash is not only below the fodder line, he's below it despite the most overrated Master Chief you could almost possibly hope for. That is BAD.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:39:27 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1311

KOS is practically your fodder line at this point.

you know, I bet new people have no idea what we mean when we say "fodder line" or "VFL" these days. it's generally 20% on BL or below.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:44:08 PM | message detail
Well I recognize VFL = Vyse Fodder Line

But me point was that Crash is fodder. MC isnt gonna lose to that no question. Its the characters that seem like they should be just below him (DK, Subby, Frog) that give him trouble cause of the whole day vote/antivote factor.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:44:36 PM | message detail
This match is really making me think Mortal Kombat was easily the biggest snub of the series contest.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/13/2006 6:45:34 PM | message detail
This match is really making me think Mortal Kombat was easily the biggest snub of the series contest.

Perhaps if "Chrono" hadn't missed out on the fun.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:45:54 PM | message detail
nah, MK would be definitely worse than SF. you can like Sub without liking MK. same with Ryu.

Its the characters that seem like they should be just below him (DK, Subby, Frog) that give him trouble cause of the whole day vote/antivote factor.

that's part of his natural strength though. MC just isn't as strong as people want to believe.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:46:32 PM | message detail
Ah yeah, I forgot about Chrono.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:47:31 PM | message detail
QUICK WITHOUT THINKING: Mortal Kombat vs. Grand Theft Auto
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:47:50 PM | message detail
uhh... GTA. still don't believe it's that weak.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:48:42 PM | message detail
tranny, you ruined the purpose!

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trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:49:18 PM | message detail
I did wha?
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:49:55 PM | message detail
You thought when it explicitly stated WITHOUT thinking...you thinker!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:52:27 PM | message detail
but.. but.. I replied in 19 seconds!!!!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:55:22 PM | message detail
heh, the board is reminding me of why MC is nonlinear. if someone of similar strength to MC was losing, there wouldn't be much whining at all. but do it with Master Chief and it's antivoting and haters and jealousy and who knows what other excuse people will come up with!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:57:06 PM | message detail
Chrono
Donkey Kong
C&C
Soul Caliber
Baldur's Gate

Way bigger snubs then MK
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:58:17 PM | message detail
Soul Caliber

lol janus
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 6:58:34 PM | message detail
No way in hell I take C&C or Baldur's Gate over MK...and Soul Calibur was in the Series Contest.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/13/2006 7:01:55 PM | message detail
Soul Calibur was. Soul Caliber, however - that's a totally different can of werms! =P
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 7:04:34 PM | message detail
Wow I really am out of it. And its always KH who is yelling at me...ahh what else is new

>_>

And I wasnt say MK wouldnt beat BG and C&C, but that they are more deserving...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 7:06:08 PM | message detail
Don't worry, soon KH's reign of terror in the stats topic will come to an end once my upsets start bombing.

...my reign in the Oracle Challenge, however, has only begun !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 7:07:11 PM | message detail
back in the top 10 with this one!

no idea what's going to happen in round 2 of the female bracket though.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 7:08:57 PM | message detail
I always manage to make the worst spelling mistakes...

Gift? Curse? Hilariousness?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Keno316 | Posted 10/13/2006 7:30:12 PM | message detail
Damn! Looks like I picked the wrong Zero for the 7 seed upset.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2006 7:48:51 PM | message detail
Spazer Division: Round 2 - Match 33 – (1)Samus vs. (4)Ada Wong

Moltar’s Analysis

Samus
Round 1 – 81.85% vs. Nidoran F (18.15%)

Samus makes easy work out of Nidoran F.

Ada
Round 1 – 75.89% vs. Jade (24.11%)

Ouch, Jade is uber-fodder.

Well, the woman in the red dress now faces the bounty hunter in the orange suit. Not much to debate here, as Samus should have no troubles beating Ada. Perhaps though, she’ll fare a little better than I originally thought because of her impressive numbers on Jade.

…Or Samus will do just as well and both Ada and Jade end up looking super weak. Samus needs to impress soon though, as her Nidoran F numbers don’t say “Bracket Winner” to me.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Samus will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Samus: 74% - Ada: 26%



Ulti’s Analysis

As easy as it is to simply assume that Ada will suck in this match, Leon's performance on Bowser makes me think otherwise. Samus will still win with ease, but Ada might actually manage to, oh.... I dunno, avoid a tripling perhaps. Stupid female half.

Prediction: Samus with 74.99%



HM’s Analysis

Samus Aran

Previous Matches:

Samus Aran – 81.85% -- 95,533

Nidoran F – 18.15% -- 21,180

Ada Wong

Previous Matches:

Ada Wong – 75.89% -- 74,498

Jade – 24.11% -- 23,669

With the start of round 2, we return to the undeniably depressing female bracket. Even more disappointing, we won’t really have any idea of how Samus stacks up to the competition when she’s against the untested Ada Wong. However, after Samus’s performance last round in which she didn’t put up a blowout of epic proportions, many began to doubt what she could do – but I think she’ll be reassuring everyone of what she can do here.

Ada Wong shouldn’t be that bad of fodder considering she does come from Resident Evil 2 and Resident Evil 4. The latter of which is the most popular game in the entire series and a big reason why Leon Kennedy was able to put up nearly 45% on the King of Koopas. Still, she shouldn’t be comparable to Leon in the least and Samus is much higher than Bowser can hope for right now. I expect this one to easily go Samus’s way in a rather boring match-up. I don’t think we’re going to see anything that diverts from the norm.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Samus Aran

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Samus Aran – 74% ; Ada Wong – 26%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Samus Aran



Yoblazer’s Analysis

I think Ada will do a pretty good job here. She looks great in the picture (whereas Samus looks bleh), Nintendo has looked far from invulnerable thus far, and Leon did extremely well on Bowser just a few days ago. Thus, I think Ada will do a pretty good job here.

My prediction: Samus Aran def. Ada Wong (73-27)



Lopen’s Analysis

I have no idea why I thought Wesker would be more popular than Ada. That was stupidity. After finally finishing the whole game, I notice Wesker's hardly got any screen time in RE4. Here I was thinking with all the hype he was getting in the Villains Contest from his fans, he'd do something cool. Here I was thinking that with him getting 45% against Lloyd, he'd do something cool. Well you know what? He didn't do anything cool beyond wearing sunglasses at night! He's got nothin' on Ada! I guess maybe he's significant in RE1, but who cares about that one?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2006 7:49:05 PM | message detail
Ada Wong has potential… even if Jade was fodder, she smashed her good. I think Ada might actually be able to beat Jill or especially that flopper Claire. RE4 is the revolution, man! RE4 dwarfs that other crap, for real! So what am I going to do? I'm going to aim nice and low here. Leon doing so well against Bowser makes me feel better about this prediction… Ada might just surprise us all!

Lopen's Prediction: Samus with 70.95%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

Samus Aran

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [41.07%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [36.72%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [39.50%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 5th Place [38.21%]

And we're back to Round 2! Joy of joys, it's the female half again. -_- First up is another boring blowout! Yay. -_-
Samus is looking to impress this time around after massively not meeting expectations against the complete joke entry known as Nidoran F. Was it a fluke, has Samus lost a step, or was she never there in the first place? THIS MATCH WILL GIVE US NO ANSWERS TO THAT END

Ada Wong

lol N/A

Ada is looking hot, and she's also looking good after her round one killing of Jade. However, we're about to see exactly how much of that was Jade's weakness in this match. Although Leon did impress against Bowser, so Ada may be able to recapture some of that magic here...

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Samus Aran: Metroid Prime: Hunters (DS), Metroid Prime Pinball (DS), Super Smash Brothers Brawl Trailer (lol internet)
Ada Wong: Resident Evil 2 (PS), Resident Evil 4 (GC, PS2)

Upcoming Releases

Samus Aran: Metroid Prime 3: Corruption (WII), Super Smash Brothers Brawl (WII)
Ada Wong: Resident Evil: Umbrella Chronicles (WII)

I'll be honest, I'm pretty interested in MC/SZ right now and I really don't give a damn about this match. So I'll give you a quick statting -- Samus gets 67% on Leon 2k5, and Ada's getting nowhere near there. She gets 73% on Jill 2k4, and...yeah, I'll give her a point above that and be done with it, giving...

Karma Hunter's Vote: Ada. Another case of personality > Samus

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Samus Aran with 76.46% .

If Samus doesn't get this, it'll be a mild disappointment, but whatever.

Upset Potential: 0.0001%

Can't forget that RE4 was on the GC!

Upset Prediction: Ada Wong with 100%



Guest’s Analysis - Garsha

Samus's past performances:

2002: 5-seed, lost to (7)Sephiroth in Division Finals, 47.37%-52.63% (Ranked 4 with 41.07% vs. Base Link)
2003: 2-seed, lost to (1)Link in Division Finals, 37.94%-62.06% (Ranked 7 with 36.72% vs. 2K3 Cloud)
2004: 2-seed, lost to (1)Cloud Strife in Semi-Finals, 59.01%-40.99% (Ranked 4 with 39.50 vs. 2K4 Link)
2005: 1-seed, lost to (1)Mario in Quarter Finals, 59.79%-40.21% (Adjusted Rank at 5 vs. 2K5 Link)
2006: 1-seed, defeated (8)Nidoran F, 81.85%-18.15%

Samus easily wipes Nidoran out.

Performance in past round:

2002-2005: Did not participate.
2006: 4-seed, defeated (5)Jade, 75.89%-24.11%

Impressive performance by Ada.

CJayC really did a mistake when splitting the bracket in a male and a female bracket. Because of this, we see weaklings like Kairi and Lara Croft winning matches and worthy opponents like Ganondorf, Zero, Tidus, and Leon Kennedy getting robbed in the first round. We also see characters Magus, Donkey Kong, Knuckles, and Frog being snubbed and pathetic characters like Nidoran F and Roll in this contest. CJayC, don't EVER do this again.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/13/2006 7:49:48 PM | message detail
Someone tell me. Did MC ever gain the lead back in the day or what? I missed the whole match cept for the first like 20 minutes
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2006 7:49:56 PM | message detail
Both characters have done impressively against their opponents, but it's obvious that Samus will win this match. Has Leon ever gotten 41% against Cloud? Nope. We can very much say that Ada is weaker than Leon. Unadjusted 2K5 Samus is projected to get over 60% against Leon, and Adjusted 2K5 Samus is projected barely double Leon with 67.02% However, seeing that Ada showed a very impressive performance against Jade, and the fact that Leon put up nearly 45% against Bowser might show that Ada is a little more than just a pushover, and might even be above the fodder line. Ada will boost and benefit from the PS2 port of Resident Evil 4, and I wouldn't be suprised if Ada broke 30% or even avoid the doubling. I can't see Samus tripling Ada, seeing that RE4 is by far the most popular game in the series, as well as one of the most popular games on the GameCube, but I can see her breaking 70%, and Metroid Prime 3 hype could help that.

Oh, and my word to all of Board 8 and its horrible taste: The Beatles >>>> Lolicon.

Garsha's prediction: Samus Aran defeats Ada Wong-71.96%-28.04%. Gotta let my sister on this computer right now. She just turned 16 a few days ago.

*Catches the attention of many idiots*



Crew Consensus: The only thing in question in this match is how much Samus will beat Ada by. Crew thinks around the low-mid 70's.