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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 388

HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 3:40:13 PM | message detail
BOLD PREDICTION: despite today's performance, a Crono/MC match this year would still be closer than MC/Crono last year.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
creativename | Posted 10/13/2006 3:42:54 PM | message detail
Nah. MC probably wouldn't get the sword advantage again.

Looks like Sub-Zero will win this with 2000-2500 votes.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 10/13/2006 3:43:42 PM | message detail
True or False: Sub-zero loses this with his MK3 pic that features him outside of his ninja uniform.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
goku z | Posted 10/13/2006 3:45:13 PM | message detail
True
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Long live Goku GT, lost August 2002 in the moderation wars of B8. 10th Place, 2005 Character Battle
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 3:46:35 PM | message detail
...I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the sword wasn't a major factor in that performance.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 10/13/2006 3:48:18 PM | message detail
...I'm gonna go out on a limb and say the sword wasn't a major factor in that performance.

You do realize that there's just as much evidence to blame MC's performances on pic factor as the "erraticness" myth? They're about equally valid.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 3:49:36 PM | message detail
And I'm going to choose to believe in the latter. No offense, of course.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 3:50:00 PM | message detail
At the rate Master Chief gained on that last update

Yeah, he won't keep that up. The natural decline in voting will prevent that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/13/2006 3:50:09 PM | message detail
True or False: Sub-Zero loses this match if the new Mortal Kombat didn't just come out.
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caps
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2006 3:51:37 PM | message detail
Think the prediction percentage will be the worst ever in round 1 for a character contest?
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Master Chief with 58.89%
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/13/2006 3:52:33 PM | message detail
I think Sub wins in a close one without the new MK.
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Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero (29/31)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 3:53:12 PM | message detail
If he'd kept this over 52% I'd have said False, but by the time this ends we'll probably be in that gray area where a recent release could make the difference (and it's happening again on Zelda/Aeris, people !!).

Still MK:A coming out a few days before this match was a known factor. I certainly knew about it, I just didn't think it would be enough.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 10/13/2006 3:56:09 PM | message detail
I don't think the prediction percentage here will be all that low. I think Sub-Zero will get 35+%. Low, but not record-breakingly so.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 3:56:58 PM | message detail
Meh, I took Sub-Zero with no knowledge of this beforehand. I don't think it'd be a make or break factor, even this close.

Not that it particularly matters. We'll never know one way or the other.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 3:58:20 PM | message detail
I think Sub-Zero will get 35+%. Low, but not record-breakingly so.

You think Sub-Zero will have over 1/3 of the brackets as a 7 seed against Master Chief, one of the most overestimated characters by the casuals?

As I said before, Auron had 70% against Scorpion in a 3/14 match, and he's not nearly as big of casual bait as MC is. I'll be shocked if Sub-Zero's percentage breaks 30% here.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:03:33 PM | message detail
Not to mention, only FIVE people in the BOP had the guts to pick Sub-Zero over Master Chief, on a board where people will jump on any potential upset over things Halo-related.

Sub-Zero's prediction percentage is going to be bad.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:05:59 PM | message detail
So the 7 seed to win wasn't Claire or Zero. It was Sub-Zero.

That somes up ALL of my screw-ups in Round 1. >.< I missed all of those...

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/13/2006 4:06:53 PM | message detail
Hehe.. yeah, who were the other two other than me, Leon, and RP? (Assuming that my bracket's in there.. <_<)
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Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero (29/31)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:07:05 PM | message detail
...creative's updater is intent on falling behind on updates, it seems.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:07:40 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure tranny had Sub-Zero > MC in his bracket, too, though I don't know if he submitted one to the BOP.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:07:57 PM | message detail
I'm still catching up, but the updater is getting some weird updates

2006-10-13 19:00:39 50459 53807 48.39% 51.61% 104266 3348
2006-10-13 19:00:02 50191 53573 48.37% 51.63% 103764 3382
2006-10-13 18:51:54 49932 53334 48.35% 51.65% 103266 3402
2006-10-13 18:50:01 49638 53073 48.33% 51.67% 102711 3435

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 4:08:07 PM | message detail
me, but I didn't enter the BOP.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/13/2006 4:08:09 PM | message detail
I submitted one but I had MC at first. No idea if I updated it to SB or not..
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Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero (29/31)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus
Garsha_III | Posted 10/13/2006 4:09:09 PM | message detail
Turd of the Round: Master Chief.
Star of the Round: Gordon Freeman!
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!
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2006 4:09:55 PM | message detail
No way! The star of the round is Luigi!
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Master Chief with 58.89%
King Bowser | Posted 10/13/2006 4:09:59 PM | message detail
The "Star of the Round" should be rightfully reserved for Luigi, yo!

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:10:14 PM | message detail
I didn't submit to the BOP, but I did join the Guru contest.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Haste_2 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:10:17 PM | message detail
What's interesting is that MC's bracket support seemed a lot better in 2K5 than in 2K3 or 2K4...I think a big part of that was his being a 1-seed and being fresh off of Halo 2. Now, he might have bracket support more like he did in earlier years, or maybe not.

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trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 4:10:39 PM | message detail
round 1 analysis coming later tonight when I get home! I woulda posted it earlier but I wanted to see how this match played out first.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:11:19 PM | message detail
The star of the round is clearly...Red Herring!

...Er, I mean, Squall Leonhart!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:12:29 PM | message detail
Congratulations, MC! After four hours, you've managed to take 1000 votes off of Sub-Zero's peak lead! If only you had another twelve hours!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/13/2006 4:13:44 PM | message detail
The star of the round is clearly...Red Herring!
Now theres something nobody on this topic could predict. Wow I never thought i would see a reference like that on this board 8-/
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Rydia: It's not yours!
Edge: That's okay it would be happy to be used by us!
creativename | Posted 10/13/2006 4:17:50 PM | message detail
I didn't realize Scorpion had such a low number in Auron/Scorpion.

I'm trying to get the updater to synch with GameFAQs. Some of the updates recently were manual.
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Tai | Posted 10/13/2006 4:20:17 PM | message detail
Hmm...who was favored in this match?
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I lost my sig. Can you find it for me? :(
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:21:11 PM | message detail
Master Chief by a wide margin.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/13/2006 4:25:19 PM | message detail
Woah woah woah

MC just cut 200 votes in the last 20 minutes >_>

TG
Lucid Faia | Posted 10/13/2006 4:25:31 PM | message detail
Lucid Faia did say that Master Chief had a 0% chance at coming back around noon, which is still pretty cocky.

Yeah, Sub-Zero had a 4000 vote lead at the time, and I called the match. Looking at the results now, I can safely say that I was mistaken...

Wait a minute. Sub-Zero's still up by 3200. With less than five hours left.

Never mind, it turns out I was right. Again. >_>

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
Elite Gamer (see quote).
Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2006 4:32:47 PM | message detail
Looking at the results now, I can safely say that I was mistaken...

Oh damn, so was I.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2122
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Tai | Posted 10/13/2006 4:35:38 PM | message detail
Master Chief by a wide margin.

That's what I thought...but, MC making a comeback does not please me. :(
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I lost my sig. Can you find it for me? :(
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:36:03 PM | message detail
He doesn't have enough time or votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
xp1337 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:37:07 PM | message detail
From LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 7:36:03 PM
He doesn't have enough time or votes.

The real problem is that he needs a weapon.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (028/031) MC v Sub-Zero
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:37:36 PM | message detail
I'm thinking Subby will have about 20% of the brackets.

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I'm so hardcore.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:38:11 PM | message detail
If Sub-Zero ends up with less than 20% of the brackets, that will be among the best things ever.

LOL Bracket voting
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 4:38:38 PM | message detail
I've got 27%. 3 perfects remain.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 4:39:20 PM | message detail
heh, the thing that worried me about MC is that he's probably about 1% stronger based on bracket voting alone.. though I guess he's always favoured so that's just part of his intrinsic strength.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:39:23 PM | message detail
I knew I should of put Sub-Zero>MC in my bracket. B8 convinced me not to.
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*hides in a box*
>_>~~~SMBX2J[SPARE ROOM]>_>~~~Maviss Coincidence?!?!
Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2006 4:40:01 PM | message detail
I'm gonna peg Sub-Zero between 25 and 30%. Felix had 22% of brackets backing him, and that was in 2003 when Master Chief had tons of casuals taking him all the way.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:40:04 PM | message detail

LOL Bracket voting


I think bracket voting definitely exists, which is part of MC's inherit strength, much like Zero's lack of support is part of his.

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I'm so hardcore.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 4:40:32 PM | message detail
The real problem is that he needs a weapon.

*hands MC a broomstick*

Now kick his ass!

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/13/2006 4:41:15 PM | message detail
Bracket voting exists, just not to the extent that some believe.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D