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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 388

dragoontheguy | Posted 10/13/2006 2:04:21 PM | message detail
Frog isn't erratic.

In 2k4 I'd really say he was.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/13/2006 2:04:33 PM | message detail
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%


>_<
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We are Smurf and Pikaness.... and we love to fight for the betterment of Board 8.
Vote for us in the Presidential election on Friday.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:05:09 PM | message detail
I'd say it's the people around Frog that made his 2k4 run erratic. do you think his 2k5 run was erratic? it looked pretty legit to me.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:05:40 PM | message detail
Sub with the update win!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/13/2006 2:06:19 PM | message detail
Well, in 2k5 he seemed fine. Then looking at Riku, it seems like Frog should be around the area 25-26% area.
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Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero (29/31)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/13/2006 2:06:44 PM | message detail
Just caught up on the last topic, and going through the last page, I kept thinking "Wow, why is Leon acting like such an ass? It's 1:30 in the morning and Subby didn't have that good of a lead then" then I realized it was 1:30 PM and I remembered that I should always question myself when BT is on the side I agree with.

In conclusion, lol bt. 4000 VOTE SHIFT BOOK IT, HAHAHAAH.

Anyway, congrats to the Subby supporters, I never thought this match was a lock, far from it, but I didn't give Subby as much of a chance as I should have it looks like.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/13/2006 2:08:34 PM | message detail
Subby wins an update, woo.
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/13/2006 2:08:38 PM | message detail
I'd say it's the people around Frog that made his 2k4 run erratic.

MC I'll give you for being erratic, but why would two chaarcters from the same series perform so weirdly on him? Were talking about just about the biggest underperformance and overperformance weve ever seen here.

do you think his 2k5 run was erratic? it looked pretty legit to me.

I'd say so, although his first match seemed iffy since it suffered from the same weirdness his 2k4 matches did.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:09:47 PM | message detail
Wow, 60 vote spike for SZ?

darn you contest!!

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/13/2006 2:10:34 PM | message detail
That's it. I'm giving up on MC. -_-
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We are Smurf and Pikaness.... and we love to fight for the betterment of Board 8.
Vote for us in the Presidential election on Friday.
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/13/2006 2:10:35 PM | message detail
another sub zero update win
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2006 2:10:53 PM | message detail
Ahhh damnit. Subby's got this.
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CB06 - Score: 28/31 Rank: Tied - 1703rd Yesterday's Pick: Auron
Today's Pick: MC Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:12:18 PM | message detail
MC I'll give you for being erratic, but why would two chaarcters from the same series perform so weirdly on him? Were talking about just about the biggest underperformance and overperformance weve ever seen here.

Solid Snake? I just don't think he's the most reliable guy. Liquid we have no idea on, Frog 2k5 predicts this match pretty well and we have no idea about Liquid Snake thanks to Sephiroth. the only match that we know was whack is Frog/Solid Snake, and I won't even try to speculate what's up with that.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:12:30 PM | message detail
I also forgot to mention my rage at people who CONTINUE to call these contests predictable. I'm pretty sure no one from here has a perfect bracket right now, and that's with a female bracket chock full o' fodder. There have been many matches where the % looked nothing like what others were expecting of it, despite the actual upset not occurring. There's going to be less than 5 perfect brackets left after the 1st round, and this is the 5th contest we've had. Stop calling it predictable, it isn't.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:14:25 PM | message detail
It seems as though people whine about every contest being predicatable before the matches start. Then when they finish at -12 they shut up about it.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:15:28 PM | message detail
"There's no way MC will get the day vote!!!!!!!!!!111111111111111"

will slowly turn into

"I never said that. I just said that the lead was completely insurmountable!!!!!!!!!1111111111111111111111"

which will then turn into

"I was backing MC the entire tiiiiiiiiiime!!!!!!!!!!!!!11111111111111111111"


Which turns into, BT is a douchebaaaaaaaaaag!!!!!!!!!!!!!1111111

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I'm so hardcore.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/13/2006 2:17:01 PM | message detail
It's getting far harder to create difficult matches now. We have a female bracket filled with characters we know nothing about...it's bound to be less predictable.
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DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2006 2:18:26 PM | message detail
The contest could have been more unpredictable though. You could have had like 15 debatable matches in the first round just be rearranging the seeds, rather than just 8 or whatever.
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CB06 - Score: 28/31 Rank: Tied - 1703rd Yesterday's Pick: Auron
Today's Pick: MC Tomorrow's Pick: Samus Losses: Cortana, Ganon, Zero
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:19:12 PM | message detail
It's getting far harder to create difficult matches now. We have a female bracket filled with characters we know nothing about...it's bound to be less predictable.

Are you seriously going to sit their and say that the female half has been less predictable than the male half? That's pure insanity right there. We had what, two matches that were even debated prior to the contest in it, and only one that was relatively close? The male bracket is much crazier.

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I'm so hardcore.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/13/2006 2:19:21 PM | message detail
I don't think the contest was predictable, I just think it could've been even more unpredictable. Really, it's an above average bracket, but there are also a good number of matchups I'd rather have seen instead.
Samurai7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:19:45 PM | message detail
It's getting far harder to create difficult matches now. We have a female bracket filled with characters we know nothing about...it's bound to be less predictable.

The female half is more predictable than the male.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:20:31 PM | message detail
The contest could have been more unpredictable though. You could have had like 15 debatable matches in the first round just be rearranging the seeds, rather than just 8 or whatever.

Sure you could, but that's a flaw on the part of creating the bracket, not how predictable it is from seeing so many character battles. Even so, it's been a damn good bracket so far, and prior to the contest I thought it would be worse than it turned out, after seeing the male bracket for round 1 play out, the next few rounds have me much more excited than I was before.

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I'm so hardcore.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:22:27 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:22:28 PM | message detail
From Lieutenant Kettch Posted 10/13/2006 5:19:21 PM
I don't think the contest was predictable, I just think it could've been even more unpredictable. Really, it's an above average bracket, but there are also a good number of matchups I'd rather have seen instead.

If the brackets get too unpredictable, we lose interest and Ceej disbands the contests

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:23:33 PM | message detail
If the brackets get too unpredictable, we lose interest and Ceej disbands the contests

What are you talking about? We love unpredictability. Why do you think the first two contests are labeled as amazing?
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:24:35 PM | message detail
We only have two matches in Round 2 on the male side that are debatable at this point...Yoshi vs. Dante and Kirby vs. Luigi.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:24:40 PM | message detail
From Draco1214 Posted 10/13/2006 5:22:27 PM
We only have two matches on the male side that are debatable at this point...Yoshi vs. Dante and Kirby vs. Luigi.

We only had 2 debateable first round matches, Ganon/Vincent and Phoenix/Gordon (which I wouldn't really say was debateable.. We all know how that turned out.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:27:04 PM | message detail
Do you realize what a small, miniscule part we play in terms of number of entries and votes? Ceej wouldn't have the contests if we were only getting Board 8 brackets.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:27:46 PM | message detail
We only had 2 debateable first round matches, Ganon/Vincent and Phoenix/Gordon (which I wouldn't really say was debateable.. We all know how that turned out.

Uh...that proves my point that this has been a pretty boring contest thus far.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:28:02 PM | message detail
yeah, people just hate it when they don't know the winner beforehand!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/13/2006 2:28:04 PM | message detail
And MC with the huge cut! Too bad it's about 5 updates too late.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:28:55 PM | message detail
We only have two matches on the male side that are debatable at this point...Yoshi vs. Dante and Kirby vs. Luigi.

Snake vs. Squall. Does Snake overperform again like he did in 2K2, was Squall ever even that strong in 2K2, and if Snake doesn't overperform, how close does Squall get to Snake if he doesn't beat him?

Yoshi vs. Dante. Self explanatory.

Sora vs. Gordon. How much of an affect did KH2 really have? Was Riku's performance on Yoshi his strength, or Yoshi proving he's not much higher than he appears (Dante will have boosted, and we can't go off Yoshi/Dante.)

Ryu vs. MM. Is the MM drop in place after what happened to Zero, or will the nobler hold strong? Is Ryu overrated in 2K5, underrated, perfect?

Vincent vs. Sonic. If Ganon is underrated in 2K5, and I believe Auron points to that, then how much did Vincent boost from DoC, can he compete with Sonic? I think he can, I'm expecting 52-48, but it could happen.

Kirby vs. Luigi. Self explanatory.

Crono vs. Bowser. Did Leon really boost that much, or was Bowser overrated last year? If he's not, can he give Crono a fight?

Auron vs. Sub-Zero... okay not much here, though if MC is as high as 28% or so, it could be fun. I don't buy it, but hey.

And there you have it, all of round 2 for the males, good matches in my eyes. Anyway, I'm off to eat, toodaloo!

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I'm so hardcore.
Mega Mana | Posted 10/13/2006 2:29:49 PM | message detail
THEJackSparrow... Contest Stats & Discussion... HOW CNA THIS NOT BE ABOUT THE NCAA?! ;_;
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Vote for Seaworthiness: Boko/Ninja '06
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:30:35 PM | message detail
Uh...that proves my point that this has been a pretty boring contest thus far.

I suppose you weren't here for Zero/Luigi and today's match, not to mention Squall destroying Tidus, Riku massively overperforming on Yoshi and Leon boosting to hell.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/13/2006 2:30:35 PM | message detail
Stats topic: *whine whine whine whine whine*

Hey, when did the stats topic turn into Noishe!?
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caps
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:31:45 PM | message detail
is this your first contest or something? this has been pretty predictable compared to last year and wayyyyyyyyyy more than the first two.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:31:57 PM | message detail
I suppose you weren't here for Zero/Luigi and today's match, not to mention Squall destroying Tidus, Riku massively overperforming on Yoshi and Leon boosting to hell.

I was here for those matches, and aside from the initial shock, they were all pretty boring to watch.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 2:32:55 PM | message detail
Boring =/= predictable.

I don't think anybody was expecting Boss to win that match by as much as she did.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/13/2006 2:33:01 PM | message detail
Also, even though the male bracket has been and will probably still be better, I can give reasons why all the round 2 female matches are interesting too. Doesn't mean they'll be super shocking.
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caps
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:33:16 PM | message detail

I was here for those matches, and aside from the initial shock, they were all pretty boring to watch.


Because in years past, we've always had an assload of 50/50 matches right? No matter what kind of contest you hold, 50/50 matches aren't going to be flying around like crazy. (I lied about eating, because someone decided to steal the car!)

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I'm so hardcore.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:34:18 PM | message detail
Also, even though the male bracket has been and will probably still be better, I can give reasons why all the round 2 female matches are interesting too. Doesn't mean they'll be super shocking.

I only posted that in regards to the post saying that we only have 2 good matches next round. 7/8 are all intriguing to me.

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I'm so hardcore.
lancealots_son | Posted 10/13/2006 2:35:39 PM | message detail
this sucks my bad boy Kratos loses and now the cheif is getting owned and i had him losing to crono...

get off xbox live and vote people!
dethfdddddh | Posted 10/13/2006 2:35:50 PM | message detail
When did Frog get passed in 2k4? I'm sure this is the time when MC was doing his 100 vote cuts, right?
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:36:18 PM | message detail
When did Frog get passed in 2k4? I'm sure this is the time when MC was doing his 100 vote cuts, right?

Try a few hours ago.

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I'm so hardcore.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 2:36:30 PM | message detail
This contest hasn't been too shabby on the whole, though the female half tried its hardest to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Next round we've got more than a few debatable matches:

Jill/Peach
Yoshi/Dante
Snake/Squall
Kirby/Luigi

And even a few off-kilter matches that could provide us with some entertainment or even perhaps the upset:

Chun-Li/Yuna
Sonic/Vincent
Crono/Bowser

I'm not so much upset with the contest as a whole, as I am disappointed at what it could have been.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/13/2006 2:36:58 PM | message detail
the female matches... well, Jill vs. Peach will go a long way to explaining Peach, I'm looking forward to that. Chun Li / Lara will also be interesting to see where Lara's at, or if Chun Li is also overrated. if Aeris/KOS goes without Weird Stuff happening, that will be interesting too. same with Zelda/Terra.

Samus/Ada is going to suck and I'm not looking forward to the rest of them. Rikku/Kairi and Yuna/Joanna might be unpredictable percentage-wise, but the winner is obvious and I'm not too interested to see them.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:37:35 PM | message detail

I'm not so much upset with the contest as a whole, as I am disappointed at what it could have been.


How come when I was saying that pre-contest everyone wanted to castrate me?

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I'm so hardcore.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/13/2006 2:37:48 PM | message detail
I put them as fairly equal in predictability, with the female half taking it. But the female half would be predictable as HELL if we'd seen the characters before. I mean, we'd be able to see that The Boss is around Ocelot's strength beforehand, for example, without doing any guesswork.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/13/2006 2:37:49 PM | message detail
Also, like someone said, there's an outside chance at Rikku/Kairi being the next Pokemon/Metroid...though I really, *really* doubt it.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/13/2006 2:38:04 PM | message detail
Last year, we had plenty of matches that were fun to watch...Kefka/Vercetti, Magus/Knuckles, Ocelot/Pac-Man, MC/DK, Vincent/Squall, Snake/Bowser, and Mega Man/Sonic.

To me, upsets like today's are like Ness/CJ. Huge upsets that were definitely shocking, but the match just wasn't fun to watch at all.
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Character Battle V Score - 29/31 points
Current Prediction - Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero