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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 387

RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:23:57 AM | message detail
Master Chief, beaten
by a frog and a ninja.
Casuals got burnt.
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
KingBartz | Posted 10/13/2006 9:24:49 AM | message detail
lol haiku
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 30/31 Today's pick: Master Chief
DaruniaTheGoron | Posted 10/13/2006 9:25:51 AM | message detail
Kairi swung like 4500 votes after the after-school vote started.

I say we're in for quite the match, can't wait to see this party start in 3 hours.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:25:55 AM | message detail
obligatory quite a spike from subzero post.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:26:18 AM | message detail
From RydiaOfTheMist Posted 10/13/2006 10:45:51 AM
Sub has restored my faith in the contest finally an upset that is a legit upset. Maybe we can pull off a contest next year after all.

What possible reason would there be to not have a contest? We've had more entries and higher votals than ever. The contest is more popular now than it's ever been.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:26:54 AM | message detail
Castlevania,
Frog, Sub-Zero, StarCraft, lost.
Beat the monkey, though!

Haikus are fun.
---
Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/13/2006 9:27:47 AM | message detail
I think he meant a character contest, which is quickly becoming predictable. I think a games one next year instead of characters would be good, and then we could go to characters in 2008.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 28/29 Today: Bowser
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/13/2006 9:28:54 AM | message detail
Hey guys, after today, it's BACK TO THE FEMALE SIDE!!!
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:31:38 AM | message detail
I can't wait!!!!
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:33:03 AM | message detail
Going from a match like this to 3 straight 60%+ blowouts. Great.

Though at least Jill will keep Peach under 60%. Maybe even 55%. MAYBE EVEN 50%!
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 9:33:50 AM | message detail
YAY!!

...seriously, it won't be that bad now that the uber-fodder is gone. In fact, IMO the next couple of matches could tell us something about Jill/Peach.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:34:47 AM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/13/2006 9:40:43 AM
that's a coincidence in my mind. Sub-Zero is simply stronger than Frog is. if you put Sub-Zero vs. Frog in a match right now, who do you expect to win in the daytime?


To be quite honest, I'd take Frog easily, assuming Subby doesn't get a good release within 3 days of that match.

At any rate, Subby's percentage is a bit decieving, because overnight/morning votals are considerably lower than the afterschool/evening votals. MC doesn't need THAT much of a percentage when the kiddies get out of class to give Sero a scare.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:36:13 AM | message detail
The more I think about it, the more my mind is shifting towards Jill winning that match.

Although she tends to suck it up in these contests, I'm having a hard time putting Peach ahead of her by any significant amount. It should be a close match, but it might not be.

lol entire female side

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:36:16 AM | message detail
...easily take Frog over Sub? The new game coming out this past week can't hurt him at all, but just how much do you think it did for him?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:38:03 AM | message detail
I just checked HBO guys, and I didn't see anything up on it about today's match...but just for kicks, I searched for GameFAQs in its archives to see what it would show, and check this:


We all KNOW the real winner.
I'm very, very happy this morning. Why? Because over at Gamefaqs, they're running a 'Best.Series.Ever' contest, with two series pairing off each day, and being voted on by their members - and yesterday, Halo lost its first-round battle, with Castlevania. I was really hoping it would lose (which is why this news post is going up the day AFTER the face-off, and not the day OF) - because it means that there will be no more rounds in the next few weeks, so I don't have to receive hundreds of emails from fans who want us to promote the fight and get people to vote for Halo. Folks - these are silly. Don't buy into 'em. (Louis Wu 16:22:44 UTC)

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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:38:38 AM | message detail
yeah, Sub-Zero is clearly fodder without a new game! it'd be 60%+ for Master Chief if he didn't have that!
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xyzzy
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:39:08 AM | message detail
Although she tends to suck it up in these contests, I'm having a hard time putting Peach ahead of her by any significant amount. It should be a close match, but it might not be.

I agree. Seeing what Leon did to Bowser has made me consider Jill being the favorite. Spread betting might reflect that.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:39:25 AM | message detail
yeah, N posted that last night. now it's HBO's fault plus Sub-Zero getting lucky with a release!
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:40:15 AM | message detail
PLUS those damned anti-votes!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:40:45 AM | message detail
MC would have at least 53% right now without Armageddon.

It will be funny to see the winner of this match absolutely bomb against Auron, in typical MC fashion.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:41:04 AM | message detail
lions and tigers and bears, oh my!
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:41:42 AM | message detail
As for Frog/Subby, I can see it going anywhere from 55% for Subby to 60% for Frog.

That's just how he rolls.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:43:35 AM | message detail
It will be funny to see the winner of this match absolutely bomb against Auron, in typical MC fashion.

Typical MC fashion is to go out in high style against a good opponent, not to bomb absolutely.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:43:37 AM | message detail
That type of swing from MK:A coming out afew days ago is just about as big as the swing projected by Mario against Cloud from having Super Mario Sunshine released on the day of the match aanndd having PGC link here in the same day.

There's no way it has THAT kind of an effect -- depending on how the rest of the match goes, Sub-Zero would have probably won without the game's release.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:45:44 AM | message detail
When all is said and done, SZ will probably be around or under 51% or so. I don't think it's a stretch to think Armageddon made that 1% difference. Though I don't think it's any more significant.

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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:46:56 AM | message detail
I've always felt the SMS thing was kind of overstated. sure it made a difference, but not an insane one like people think. Cloud should have beaten Mario, but not with 60+% in 2002. he just wasn't as strong.

obviously MKA will make a difference in bringing MK fans to the site at the right time, but Sub had a great shot even without it. I actually picked him without knowledge of MKA.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:49:13 AM | message detail
Sorry, I meant seeing Sub-Zero bomb. If MC comes back, he'll make SZ look better than Zero <_<.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:49:46 AM | message detail
I'm beginning to doubt MC can even bring it back down to 51% -- what with the new poll-time, Sub-Zero probably having a better day-vote than Frog (I think Scorpion does, too), those coming/affected by the new game likely to come in those hours, and Halo/CV...that's a lot of tough evidence against him to make even THAT much of a swing.

Now, if anybody's going to do it, it'll have to be MC (or mh m i rite leon?), but I barely can imagine it right now.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:50:26 AM | message detail
Out of curiosity tranny, is steve one of the people on your blocked user list? Because literally every post of his before he lost his perfect and vanished involved MK:A

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:51:06 AM | message detail
I'd like to see Sora/Master Chief. I think Sora would win the day vote there. I'm probably alone.
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xyzzy
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:51:57 AM | message detail
I think the guesses in 2k2 were for Cloud to get 56%...not sure, but I don't think they were projected at 60+%. Either way though, yeah, that's a real big swing -- I wonder just how big it was, myself...but if we've ever seen a case for that big of a swing, that was it.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:51:58 AM | message detail
Though if Sub-Zero ends up winning this, that makes my "end of the first round random upset" score 2/1.

That's right, I had both MH and Pac-Man winning their matches. Not coming to board 8 really helped.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:52:47 AM | message detail
I would absolutely love to see Cloud vs. Mario today. just to see what would happen.

I want to say it would be closer than we'd think.. but Sephiroth says differently. then again, that's Sephiroth.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:52:53 AM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/13/2006 12:51:06 PM
I'd like to see Sora/Master Chief. I think Sora would win the day vote there. I'm probably alone.

The universe would implode when have the people who vote get stuck in and endless anti-vote loop, not deciding who they hate more.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:53:10 AM | message detail
Nah, I'd take Tingle to win it over MC though!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:53:55 AM | message detail
It depends on who is more anti-voted by the hardcore audience.

I would take Master Chief as the day vote winner. After all, Halo technically made a better day vote swing against Castlevania than Kingdom Hearts did
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 9:53:56 AM | message detail
From transience Posted 10/13/2006 12:52:47 PM
I would absolutely love to see Cloud vs. Mario today. just to see what would happen.

I want to say it would be closer than we'd think.. but Sephiroth says differently. then again, that's Sephiroth.


Show me Cloud/Mario next year once the Wii has had time to settle in and SMG comes out.

That's why Mario isn't up there with Clinkeroth, he hasn't had a "killer app" since SM64.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/13/2006 9:54:17 AM | message detail
And sorry, but am I the only one having a tough time swallowing Sub-Zero > Donkey Kong? It just doesn't seem right..

Donkey Kong is a chump. 43% on Vivi isn't THAT impressive, folks.

And THREE YEARS of nominating Sub-Zero has finally paid off! This is awesome! I was starting to worry about his chances before last night, but the more I thought and argued about it, the more confident I felt. And now he's pulling through!

Master Chief is going to be a massive favorite here, folks. He has not failed to get at least 73% of the brackets in any first round match. Honestly, if this ends up as the biggest bracket buster ever, I wouldn't be surprised.

Speaking of which, how many perfects left?
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:54:18 AM | message detail
No, we never need to see Mario/Cloud again. In fact, that's the one reason why I would be against the Battle Royal -- it's just too classic of an upset.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:55:17 AM | message detail
At least one, probably...two.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/13/2006 9:55:39 AM | message detail
After all, Halo technically made a better day vote swing against Castlevania than Kingdom Hearts did

Yeah, because percentage is worth more than votes.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman
Yesmar | Posted 10/13/2006 9:55:48 AM | message detail
It has begun.

Or this is just an aberration. Probably the latter.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:55:52 AM | message detail
did it?

Halo at 8am: 43.79
Halo at 8pm: 45.08

KH at 8am: 48.74
KH at 8pm: 51.11
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xyzzy
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 9:56:47 AM | message detail
Likely an aberration, Subby votes dropped off there.
---
Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 9:57:06 AM | message detail
I say 27% and 3 perfects remain.
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xyzzy
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:57:29 AM | message detail

Yeah, because percentage is worth more than votes.


Yeah, it does, since we're talking about swings, which is defined by % changes -_-


Halo had a really strong opening vote, which caused Castlevania's starting % to be low. But if you take the night vote (3 AM+) against the day vote, Halo did slightly better than KH.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/13/2006 9:58:47 AM | message detail
Yeah, it does, since we're talking about swings, which is defined by % changes -_-

*looks at the percentages*

...Doesn't look like Halo did better to me.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/13/2006 9:58:50 AM | message detail
I'll say 15% has Subby wining. Take that Starcraft!
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Supporter of Ryu.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:59:58 AM | message detail
Well, here are the specifics

3-6

KH: 48.01%


6-9

KH: 48.27%

9-12

KH: 52.46%


12-15

KH: 53.18%

15-18

KH: 52.92%


18-21

KH: 52.48%


21-24


KH: 53.35%



5.17% Increase





3-6

Halo: 41.48%

6-9

Halo: 40.46%


9-12

Halo: 45.75%


12-15

Halo: 46.07%


15-18

Halo: 46.15%


18-21

Halo: 44.71%


21-24


Halo: 44.34%




5.69% increase

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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/13/2006 10:01:52 AM | message detail
6-9 isn't "day vote" territory. People are talking about after school vote when they talk about MC's day vote.
---
Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman