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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 387

The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:47:16 AM | message detail
I don't think MC can pull it out, because even if things go as well as they can, he'd have just enough momentum to deplete the lead, not not quite enough to pad a lead. It would, like, end in a tie or maybe a few hundred votes short.

But I'm still looking forward to a patented MC day-vote swing
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:48:19 AM | message detail
I mean, we know Crono's day vote > Magus's by quite a margin

So why not Frog's?

Yet, Master Chief had a bigger swing against Crono than Frog.

You can't deny that if we see a performance like that again, all bets are off.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:56:49 AM | message detail
actually, looking at Crono/Magus (not the most reliable thing, but bear with me), Crono and Magus went about even come daytime. it was the overnight/morning vote where Crono padded his lead. it's a SFF match so I don't expect much in terms of reliability, but it's something.
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xyzzy
Starion | Posted 10/13/2006 7:09:07 AM | message detail
I can't see MC winning this match now. Hmm, Subzero must have definitely gotten a boost from the new MK game. Certainly helps that it has garnered mostly positive reviews too. Where does this place Subzero in the xstats? Higher than Scorpion?
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Now playing: Castlevania:DOS | Queue: Okami | Waiting for: SMT:Devil Summoner, FF12, Castlevania:POR
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/13/2006 7:16:47 AM | message detail
I'm actually somewhat angered by this match; you have it next week or the week before and you're looking at a potentially very different result.

MC still has a chance though; you can never count him out!
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Big Bob | Posted 10/13/2006 7:28:33 AM | message detail
Well, crap. Sub-Zero looks like he's gonna win this now. Unless Master Chief goes and breaks his own record..
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
Big Bob | Posted 10/13/2006 7:30:38 AM | message detail
And sorry, but am I the only one having a tough time swallowing Sub-Zero > Donkey Kong? It just doesn't seem right..
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Gordon Freeman finally won, but somehow, the universe survived... thus allowing me to tell said universe about how I was owned by NClark128.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 7:42:21 AM | message detail
ooh, MC is stalling here.
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xyzzy
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/13/2006 7:44:08 AM | message detail
Ugh, Illumina is going to be unbearable after this.

This is pretty nice by Subby, though. I can't see MC winning this now. 4000 votes? Nah.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 30/31 Today: MC
NewLib | Posted 10/13/2006 7:45:16 AM | message detail
People keep using Frog as a reason for MC to come back even though Subby has about 1000 more vote lead right now than Frog ever had.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
RydiaOfTheMist | Posted 10/13/2006 7:45:51 AM | message detail
Sub has restored my faith in the contest finally an upset that is a legit upset. Maybe we can pull off a contest next year after all.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 7:47:59 AM | message detail
Well, this match is going to get almost 1.5 times the total votes of Frog Vs. Master Chief. So yeah, that's understandable.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/13/2006 7:48:55 AM | message detail
The site also get more votes per match than it did last year... and the year before...

KB
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 7:58:16 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 7:58:41 AM | message detail
Speaking of total votes, I forgot to factor in the fact that when the school vote kicks in, the match will already have over half of the total votes cast. That's a far cry from the other matches where we'd only have less than half by the time the school vote hits. Or in the case of Frog Vs. Master Chief, a piddly 42%

I guess that may be offset with the "second night vote" that was present in the past matches, but I don't know...

Oh well, it's not like the chances of a successful comeback were higher than 3% anyway
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/13/2006 7:59:45 AM | message detail
If MC wins this next update, I will be very worried...
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~*Ex~Tha*~
Sometimes it's darkest just before dawn.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 8:00:18 AM | message detail
And, and since I haven't done this in a while

Vs. Frog

4:00 - 42.98%
5:00 - 43.37%
6:00 - 48.49%
7:00 - 49.05%
8:00 - 47.20%
9:00 - 46.78%
10:00 - 47.66%

Vs. Sub-Zero

4:00 - 43.59%
5:00 - 42.96%
6:00 - 48.92%
7:00 - 48.51%
8:00 - 46.85%
9:00 - 46.86%
10:00 - 48.16%
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
NewLib | Posted 10/13/2006 8:03:24 AM | message detail
This hour in Frog/MC was basically complete stagnation.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 8:08:34 AM | message detail
Why would MC go 50/50 here the only NA people that aren't at school are from the West Coast and even then we'd all be gone in 30-45 min.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 8:11:45 AM | message detail
I don't know, but it's consistent with his match with Frog. At this time, he also improved a little over 1% doing about 48% instead of 46.5%.

As for why.. I dunno. Maybe the unemployed layabouts who play Halo wake up at this time

>_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
NewLib | Posted 10/13/2006 8:12:08 AM | message detail
I say this is around when College Students start getting back from class on East Coast.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 8:15:46 AM | message detail
the one difference with this match and Frog is that people are in school. if we're going to see a MC day vote, it's going to come hard and fast at around 3pm.
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xyzzy
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/13/2006 8:17:01 AM | message detail
Frog/MC was on a school day as well, tranny. a Thursday to be precise.
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~*Ex~Tha*~
Sometimes it's darkest just before dawn.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 8:17:18 AM | message detail
People were in school for that match too. That's why I chose it for comparison.

It's just a coincidence that it happened to be so... similar >_>

Granted, there were probably a number of schools that still hadn't been in session. But I'd say at least half of them were by September 9th
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 8:17:35 AM | message detail
I can see MC cutting the lead by at least half against Sub-Zero if they keep going like this for the next 4 hour.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 8:19:30 AM | message detail
If the MC Vs. Frog trends hold up, it won't continue like this. It should stop by noon
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 8:20:01 AM | message detail
was it really? huh, I didn't know 2k4 ran that late. go not being a student anymore!
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xyzzy
swirIdude | Posted 10/13/2006 8:25:44 AM | message detail
Why are we talking about this match? The universe imploded!
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The FFP is the best topic on the board. It's a fact, look it up.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30272411
KingBartz | Posted 10/13/2006 8:28:05 AM | message detail
I still retain faith in a MC comeback.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 30/31 Today's pick: Master Chief
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 8:31:59 AM | message detail
We totally need Ken to come back need year, and put him up against Subby in the 1st round!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 8:44:08 AM | message detail
I'd vote for Ken over Sub in a heartbeat, but I think Sub would win that match. I've been a big supporter of Ken returning.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/13/2006 8:44:33 AM | message detail
though really, we need to get Akuma into one of these suckers. he takes precedence over Ken.
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xyzzy
Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 8:45:50 AM | message detail
If Chunny beats Yuna, or gets really close, I may start the Akuma rally myself!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Currently playing Tales of the Abyss*
NClark128 | Posted 10/13/2006 8:47:16 AM | message detail
So, I only just about an hour ago got back from class, and haven't been closely following the match or the discussion here...

Anyway, Subbie's lead is now over 3500 votes... does anyone think MC still has a chance to come back?
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Mia... um, OKSt... ah, **** football.
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets: 0-0 - Next: @ Celtics (11/1)
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/13/2006 8:51:20 AM | message detail
Anyway, Subbie's lead is now over 3500 votes... does anyone think MC still has a chance to come back?

Its possible.

Chief has come back from a lot before... with the higher vote totals I dont think this is out of the realm of possibility, yet.


KB
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 8:52:34 AM | message detail
Master Chief has yet to win a 15 minute update. He needs to win the next 49 by an average of 71.5 votes to tie Sub-Zero.

I wouldn't rate his chances as very good, let's say that.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Aprosenf | Posted 10/13/2006 8:56:46 AM | message detail
I say this is around when College Students start getting back from class on East Coast.

No, this is around the time college students wake up for class on the east coast.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:00:06 AM | message detail
Heh, right when he says that, MC wins a 15 minute update.

Well, it was only a vote, but a win's a win!
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:01:25 AM | message detail
What Apro said. *yawns* :p

And, as I go and say that, Chief wins an update by 1 vote. Now he only needs 73 votes/15 minutes to tie!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Aprosenf | Posted 10/13/2006 9:03:18 AM | message detail
Looks like Chief finally won his first 15 minute update there (by 1 vote).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 9:04:19 AM | message detail
Sub-Zero will bounce back with a 55% update.

FEEL HIS ANGER
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
andaca | Posted 10/13/2006 9:04:50 AM | message detail
1 vote?

OMG comeback!
Redtooth | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:12 AM | message detail
Too bad Sub-Zero shot back with his highest percentage in the last hour...

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
KingBartz | Posted 10/13/2006 9:07:54 AM | message detail
Master Chief is definately starting to stall. He's eating up the %s as well.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 30/31 Today's pick: Master Chief
Mr Underwood | Posted 10/13/2006 9:14:31 AM | message detail
what do you guys think of this? http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=31094939
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:19:00 AM | message detail
As for why.. I dunno. Maybe the unemployed layabouts who play Halo wake up at this time

>_>


I laughed.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
KingBartz | Posted 10/13/2006 9:19:35 AM | message detail
I think it's a load of crap.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 30/31 Today's pick: Master Chief
wavedash101 | Posted 10/13/2006 9:20:39 AM | message detail
Someone should write a poem about MC's contest performances. I suck at poetry, but just an idea...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
HaRRicH | Posted 10/13/2006 9:22:56 AM | message detail
That link is...cute.



Someone needs to teach
Him the Heimlich Maneuver;
He's dying out there.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
cardboard_BoxA_ | Posted 10/13/2006 9:23:44 AM | message detail
>_>
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*Uses box to cover nakedness*
CBoxA~AKA~GavHarrison316