GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 387
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:03:18 AM | message detail |
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Midnight to 3 didn't exist in those matches since the poll started at 3 AM eastern And I don't think taking midnight to 3 that happened at the end of the polls would be an accurate comparison. Also Vs. Sub-Zero 4:00 - 43.59% 5:00 - 42.96% 6:00 - 48.92% Vs. Frog 4:00 - 42.98% 5:00 - 43.37% 6:00 - 48.49% These matches are freakishly similar so far. I find it hard to believe that Sub-Zero and Frog's day-night swings are similar, but that last hour seems to indicate that to be the case >_> --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/13/2006 4:10:42 AM | message detail |
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I don't think they'll be similar. Sub-Zero has a new game to help him with the day vote to at least beat Frog's. --- Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero (29/31) Tomorrow / Bracket: Samus / Vote: Samus |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:12:36 AM | message detail |
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Maybe. It could just be that MC's day vote has gotten even more polarized since his match with Frog. I mean, if his match with Crono is any indication of his current day vote abilities, this match is far from over --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| cyko | Posted 10/13/2006 4:13:45 AM | message detail |
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well, MC and Sub-Zero have been almost dead even for the past hour. MC
could still pull this one off. i have to give most of you guys credit,
though. i waas completely wrong about this match. =( --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:16:05 AM | message detail |
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And I'm eating my words about Master Chief being smoked over an hour
ago. I really did not expect him to do this well with just the
before-school vote O_o --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2006 4:19:24 AM | message detail |
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I expect MC to start cutting the lead in 3 or 4 hours --- CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Master Chief with 58.89% |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:20:49 AM | message detail |
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I doubt it. These few hours were his best time against both Frog and
Crono until school let out. If he can't mount one now, he's probably
not going to until 3 PM --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/13/2006 4:21:08 AM | message detail |
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Nice update for Masterchief. ^^ --- Supporter of Ryu. |
| Terran | Posted 10/13/2006 4:21:27 AM | message detail |
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Master Chief lost the night vote against even Donkey Kong. Against DK
he was down about 2k votes around 8am (which worked out to be about the
same percentage as this match) and still won the match. --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2006 4:22:13 AM | message detail |
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You don't think the end of the polls would be accurate? I guess not completely, but I think it would give a pretty good idea. But so far, if MC/Frog trends continue, the amount of lead gained since 3:30AM will be doubled and then added again. So here, Sub-Zero's increased his lead by about 900 votes since 3:30. The lead's going to peak at something under 1800 above what it is now, right before the after school vote. Something like 4000. That would be an insane comeback if it were to happen. --- Take off every sig. |
| cyko | Posted 10/13/2006 4:23:04 AM | message detail |
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*GASP* IT'S TERRAN!!!! ^_^ and after that pleasurable update by MC, i'm off to work. i fully expect MC to be charging at full comeback speed when i return home!! --- i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest. Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!! |
| Terran | Posted 10/13/2006 4:24:57 AM | message detail |
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*GASP* IT'S TERRAN!!!! ^_^ I've been back for a little while, though I mostly don't post (and when I do pretty much just in these topics) ^_^. I got a good bracket going too, only one loss so far, but I have MC winning this match. --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:37:55 AM | message detail |
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You don't think the end of the polls would be accurate? I guess not completely, but I think it would give a pretty good idea. Well it's more about comparing the opening minutes of a poll to the closing minutes of a poll. The former is going to have exponetially more votes, which throws off the result. Although that's not really much issue at 3:30 in the morning. If you compare the opening votes at that time to the ones we're getting now. But more particular, the last few hours of MC Vs. Frog were just freaking weird in that Frog started to get the night vote, and then out of nowhere, MC just started going 50-50 with him in the last hour. It just defied any trends I can think of so I'm going to... IGNORE IT! =D But if you want to know. Vs. Sub-Zero 0:30 - 46.04% 1:00 - 46.52% 2:00 - 46.56% Vs. Frog 0:30 - 47.11% 1:00 - 44.29% 2:00 - 49.89% --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| steve illumina | Posted 10/13/2006 4:40:24 AM | message detail |
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This is an absolutely beautiful result...even though I did not pick
Subby in my bracket...I am proud to see him win for the glory of Mortal
Kombat! --- Steve Illumina: Sage of Board 8 & Elitist Analyst MK Armageddon: Go Subby!!! |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2006 4:45:06 AM | message detail |
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Basically, it's useful to know that in this case, MC needs an even
higher proportion of votes in other times against Sub-Zero than he
needed against Frog. Seeing those numbers actually makes me more sure
that the comeback isn't going to happen. --- Take off every sig. |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2006 4:47:20 AM | message detail |
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But if you want to know. Vs. Sub-Zero 0:30 - 46.04% 1:00 - 46.52% 2:00 - 46.56% Vs. Frog 0:30 - 47.11% 1:00 - 44.29% 2:00 - 49.89% Damnit, n00b... I didn't want to know! I wanted to think he'd be able to comeback while I'm at work! --- CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Master Chief with 58.89% |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2006 4:47:42 AM | message detail |
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Actually I take that back... the 44 averaged in doesn't make him look much better against Frog. --- Take off every sig. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:59:14 AM | message detail |
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| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 4:59:43 AM | message detail |
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Vs. Frog 4:00 - 42.98% 5:00 - 43.37% 6:00 - 48.49% 7:00 - 49.05% Vs. Sub-Zero 4:00 - 43.59% 5:00 - 42.96% 6:00 - 48.92% 7:00 - 48.51% Still pretty similar --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 5:07:56 AM | message detail |
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Also interesting, in Frog Vs. Master Chief, Frog started coming back against in the night. In Crono Vs. Master Chief, MC still kept a pretty good % going into the late hours. The difference between the matches? Frog Vs. MC was on a Thursday. Crono Vs. MC was, yep, a Friday just like today. I guess no school tomorrow means MC fans can stay up and vote even later than usual. Basically, the comeback conditions are optimal for MC to do this. If he can't manage it, then we know he never had a chance >_> --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| therealmnm | Posted 10/13/2006 5:11:10 AM | message detail |
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So then he's been rallying for her since SC2k5 ended? Because like I
said, him planning to make a nomination rally for Carmen was a total
suprise to me until he posted in mine. Not that it's really a big deal or anything, but I'd been talking about getting Carmen Sandiego in for years. I'd been questioning why she wasn't in 2k2, looking at the people who actually got in that year. I had been hinting at her deserving to be in the contest, but I didn't think about actually getting her in myself until observing Manny Calavera get in with the board's help. --- Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/13/2006 5:11:22 AM | message detail |
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Come on MC... pull yourself together! For the sake of a great match! --- CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Master Chief with 58.89% |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/13/2006 5:11:41 AM | message detail |
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This one almost seems to be over, but you never know with Chief. Subbie
did well overnight, so as long as he doesn't crash with the day vote,
he should have it. Although, we are talking about the former day vote king... --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Master Chief vs. Sub-Zero - Bracket: MC - Vote: MC (28/31) |
| Tediz247 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:31:44 AM | message detail |
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Finally we get a match that looks like it could be exciting late in the day. Go Master Chief! --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end. ZSB [aX] |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/13/2006 5:31:55 AM | message detail |
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From steve illumina Posted 10/13/2006 7:40:24 AM This is an absolutely beautiful result...even though I did not pick Subby in my bracket...I am proud to see him win for the glory of Mortal Kombat! I hate to say I called it <_< TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 5:39:54 AM | message detail |
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Looks like my winning streak is over with a new record of 27 wins. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Who Cares? | Posted 10/13/2006 6:03:18 AM | message detail |
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Getting closer to 3k now I see. I know it ain't over yet, but I have my doubts that even Chief could slice apart a lead that big! --- Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go! *Currently playing Tales of the Abyss* |
| SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/13/2006 6:05:04 AM | message detail |
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Finally I was ballsy enough to call the upset that board 8 didn't see coming. --- ~*Ex~Tha*~ Sometimes it's darkest just before dawn. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:06:38 AM | message detail |
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The lead should be almost 4500 votes by the time the after-school vote kicks in. Technically speaking, a 4500 vote swing with the vote totals we have now will be equally as impressive as his swing against Donkey Kong. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:11:20 AM | message detail |
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I feel really good about Sub here. it looks like MC stalled with the
before-school vote and won an update with 54%. Sub could potentially
have a 4000-4500 vote lead by the time the afterschool vote comes, and
MC's total comeback vs. DK was 3500. as others have said, throw in that
new game and I expect at least a decent day vote. I don't see any
reason to question Sub-Zero here. ...except it's Master Chief. he's nuts. I have no idea what to expect out of him at this point. so I'm not completely confident, but it would take something extremely unprecedented to pull this off. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:12:08 AM | message detail |
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oh and yeah, I meant to mention that higher vote totals means that
there'e a higher chance of a comeback. it's still miniscule, but when
it comes to Master Chief I won't count it out! --- xyzzy |
| Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/13/2006 6:14:13 AM | message detail |
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From: BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted: 10/12/2006 9:53:16 PM | Message Detail Come back to me when Subby has a 3000 vote lead. Master Chief 46.6% 20577 Sub-Zero 53.4% 23580 TOTAL VOTES 44157 BRUTALIY !! --- ~FFDragon (at work !!) FFDragoon, now with the blood of the mods stained to his armor and dripping from his lance. |
| TheSwizzle | Posted 10/13/2006 6:21:15 AM | message detail |
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So, guesstimate time - when's it OK to give up the ghost on the Kamp
Krusty "The day vote'll save us!!" mentality on Chief - when and if Sub
passes 4K? --- "If at first you don't succeed, find out if the loser gets anything." |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/13/2006 6:23:44 AM | message detail |
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Well IMO it's over, since 2.5k (.5 more then usual because MC is like
that), but if you really want to be sure then 4k sounds good. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:26:25 AM | message detail |
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No. He has to pass 5000 to give up all hope. And even then, I wouldn't completely count him out. It's more important to see how well he wins the day vote. Someone who can do ~49% with the before-school vote should be practically guaranteed to at least win the after-school vote. If, by 5 PM, MC hasn't won consistent 55%+ updates, then you can count him out for good. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Crimson Dragoon | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:12 AM | message detail |
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Someone who can do ~49% with the before-school vote should be practically guaranteed to at least win the after-school vote. Subby did ~51% with the before-school vote. >_> --- ~FFDragon (at work !!) FFDragoon, now with the blood of the mods stained to his armor and dripping from his lance. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:28:57 AM | message detail |
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Scorpion's total percentage vs. Auron: 01:00 - 34.35% 04:00 - 33.94% 07:00 - 33.74% 10:00 - 34.22% 13:00 - 34.68% 16:00 - 34.94% 19:00 - 35.09% 22:00 - 35.17% 24:00 - 35.15% Auron's not spectacular with the day vote or anything, but Scorpion managed to "win" it vs. him and there's no way Auron loses to Frog or DK with the day vote. (and I have no idea what time matches started in 2k4 - was it still 1am? 3am?) --- xyzzy |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:29:37 AM | message detail |
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I meant someone who can improve from 43% to 49% Sub fell from 57% to 51% in that time period. After-school should be even more dangerous for him --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:32:16 AM | message detail |
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just to give an idea, if this match has the same vote totals as
yesterday's, Master Chief needs 52.91% of the vote to win. there's
still a lot of votes to be cast here. it's definitely not impossible,
but I would be floored to see a day vote like that. more likely, MC does what Ganondorf did in the morning and goes 50/50 in the daytime. he might win some updates but then Sub will win one back. --- xyzzy |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2006 6:32:45 AM | message detail |
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56% times 40000 votes = 4800 vote turnaround I think it's possible, considering how similar it's been to his match with Frog... --- Take off every sig. |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:33:27 AM | message detail |
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That seems unlikely to me. They already almost went 50-50 in the early
morning, which is basically just a smaller scale after-school vote. At
the least, you have to expect Master Chief to at least make progress --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Phediuk | Posted 10/13/2006 6:36:28 AM | message detail |
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So, who wants to bet that this match breaks the record for lowest first-round prediction percentage? --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:36:32 AM | message detail |
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well, you have to remember that you're looking at Master Chief's day
vote vs. two of the worst day vote characters around. the only argument
you really have for him having a super massive insane day vote is
Crono, who lost a good 4% to freakin' Captain Falcon in the day last
week. I don't think that's as impressive as others make it seem. Master
Chief is clearly good with the day vote, but not enough to turn around
a 4,000 vote lead against a character with a decent day vote who had a
game released two days ago and is currently #1 on the FAQs. I invite a close match (as long as Sub wins!), but I think we're giving the Chief way too much credit here. it would take a miracle to win at this point. --- xyzzy |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:37:39 AM | message detail |
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So, who wants to bet that this match breaks the record for lowest first-round prediction percentage? not me. if it was someone less known I'd believe it, but Sub-Zero should get at least 25% of the brackets. not much more though. I'll give him 27% or so. --- xyzzy |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:39:35 AM | message detail |
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I was singing the same tune, until the match started following the
patterns of Frog Vs. Master Chief very closely. If the first 9 hours
are similar, including the before-school vote, why not the next 9 hours? --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:40:43 AM | message detail |
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that's a coincidence in my mind. Sub-Zero is simply stronger than Frog
is. if you put Sub-Zero vs. Frog in a match right now, who do you
expect to win in the daytime? --- xyzzy |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:41:52 AM | message detail |
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Sub-Zero, but I already explained how the match can follow the same pattern and still have Sub-Zero with a better day vote. --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/13/2006 6:43:14 AM | message detail |
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Yeah, I don't think it matters. I have no doubt MC would beat Frog now,
and the fact is that today's match is mirroring his match with Frog
very closely right now. Now, I don't actually think MC is going to win, but I think he's got a shot. And I would be surprised not to see MC shave at least 2000 off the lead with the day vote. --- Take off every sig. |
| transience | Posted 10/13/2006 6:43:42 AM | message detail |
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fair enough - we'll just have to wait and see. Sub sure ain't slowing down with the morning vote here. he's gained over 300 votes in the last hour. if this continues until 2pm, this will be at 4500 votes. --- xyzzy |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/13/2006 6:47:01 AM | message detail |
| [This message was deleted at the request of the original poster] |