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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 386

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/12/2006 5:54:06 PM | message detail

Sub-Zero and Scorpion really are about as different as Ryu and Ken. They at least do very different moves..
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Auron vs. Alucard / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain (28/30)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 5:54:28 PM | message detail

Ryu is never even clearly stated to be the main character of the Street Fighter games, and even then, there's not an emphasis given to him until SFA3. Honestly, in the SFII games, you could say that Guile was the main character. Ryu being that much stronger than Ken has little or nothing to do with him being the "main character."

Sub-Zero doesn't need whatever "benefit" there is to be had by being the "main character." We've already got a poll that indicates that he is easily the most preferred Mortal Kombat character. Honestly, only Auron (imagine that!) can boast of putting up that high of a percentage in a favorites poll. That's got to count for something, even if it's not THAT much.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 5:55:32 PM | message detail

And yes, it really has little to do with storyline as it does with playing style. People love the playing styles of Sub-Zero and Scorpion. That's why they're the most popular Mortal Kombat characters by far here.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

charmander6000 | Posted 10/12/2006 5:58:53 PM | message detail

Match XXXII: (2) Master Chief vs. (7) Sub-Zero

Contest History

Master Chief

Summer 2003
Defeated Felix, 52.96% - 47.04%
Lost to Aeris Gainsborough, 39.85% - 60.15%
Ranked: 26th

Summer 2004
Defeated Crash Bandicoot, 70.72% - 29.28%
Lost to Frog, 49.9962% - 50.0038%
Ranked: 15th

Summer 2005
Defeated CATS, 68.83% - 31.17%
Defeated Donkey Kong, 50.79% - 49.21%
Lost to Crono, 38.71% - 61.29%
Ranked: 21st

Sub-Zero

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Master Chief is from Halo and Halo 2. Master Chief’s performances have been quite different, even in the same year; some matches where he was suppose to easily win he struggles and some matches where he is expected to lose badly he does well. Sub-Zero is from the Mortal Kombat series. Sub-Zero is our final rally character and people have high hopes of him doing well in this match and hoping that he’ll outrank Scorpion.

Final match of the round and despite what some vocal members of the board are saying, Sub-Zero doesn’t have much of a chance at upsetting Master Chief. Master Chief is one of those characters that **** the stats. He likes to let characters that he should be destroying get really close to him and when we think he has dropped from the previous year he shoots up and does well against the opponent he loses to making anybody he beat look better than they should. The only exception was his match against Crash where he did better than expected probably because Crash gets more anti-votes than Master Chief.

When talking about Sub-Zero’s strength the only character to compare with is Scorpion. Scorpion himself is an okay character and other than his run to the Elite 8 back in 2k2 he hasn’t done much. I think Sub-Zero would be a stronger character than Scorpion because Sub-Zero is more known outside of the Mortal Kombat fans and even within the fans he is probably just as popular if not more popular than Scorpion. Then again it is rare to see a new character to be stronger than one that has already been in a contest.

Finally we have the declining of fighter fans coming to this site. As you can see with Scorpion in 2k4 and Ryu in 2k5 the fighting genre isn’t as strong as it used to be back in 2k2. For tomorrow’s match Sub-Zero may avoid the fighting genre decrease because Mortal Kombat: Armageddon was released a few days ago so I wouldn’t be surprised if Sub-Zero were to do better than expected, that is if he makes a return next year.

Like all of Master Chief’s matches I’m expecting Sub-Zero to do much better than expected. If this was Master Chief’s true strength I would think he would be able to pull about 63% of the votes. I think some people are going for the upset because this is the last match of the round and both Master Hand and Pac-Man got an upset.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Master Chief over Sub-Zero

charmander6000’s Prediction: Master Chief wins, 59.18% - 40.82%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:01:03 PM | message detail

Sub-Zero barely breaking 40% is better than expected?! Just how strong do you think MC is?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:01:42 PM | message detail

XBox ownership still isn't anything stellar.

That's still a 15% increase due almost entirely to one game.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

KingBartz | Posted 10/12/2006 6:02:00 PM | message detail

Master Chief should be getting at least 60%. This site hates MK kust as much.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 29/30 Today's pick: Auron

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:02:48 PM | message detail

People just can't let go of that 2k5 stat, I see...

...I'll go so far as to say if you put him near it you're either not paying attention, or you've got an agenda (i.e. you're arguing from bias). It sounds arrogant, but...y'know, if I'm going to be arrogant about anything, it should be Master Chief.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:05:08 PM | message detail

Master Chief should be getting at least 60%. This site hates MK kust as much.

...No, it doesn't.

But still, saying MC should get 62-63% on Sub-Zero would probably put him even above his overrated 2005 level!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:09:51 PM | message detail

heh, I can't wait til midnight. I'm really anticipating this one, cause someone's going to be very wrong.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:14:16 PM | message detail

What is wrong with Master Chief's 2005 stat? We have never had any proof that there's anything wrong with him other than anti-votes.

No one gets accused of "arguing with bias" when they assume Dante and Knuckles got gigantic boosts for much less logical reasons.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

charmander6000 | Posted 10/12/2006 6:15:01 PM | message detail

Sub-Zero barely breaking 40% is better than expected?! Just how strong do you think MC is?

More like Sub-Zero is weak.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:19:55 PM | message detail

No one gets accused of "arguing with bias" when they assume Dante and Knuckles got gigantic boosts for much less logical reasons.

Knuckles overperformed on Squall, Dante had DMC3.

"But MC had Halo 2!" I don't care.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:20:22 PM | message detail

Okay, guys. How about this:

PoP vs MC?
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Auron vs. Alucard / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain (28/30)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:21:11 PM | message detail

MC. I still don't quite believe POP's value, meaning I don't believe in Kirby.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:21:17 PM | message detail

What is wrong with Master Chief's 2005 stat? We have never had any proof that there's anything wrong with him other than anti-votes.

And the fact that it makes his entire four-pack WAYYYYYYYY too high. Just looking at past results involving the other three should tell you that.

No one gets accused of "arguing with bias" when they assume Dante and Knuckles got gigantic boosts for much less logical reasons.

I've considered the possibility of Knuckles being overrated, but there's no way of knowing this year. Dante pretty much backed it up.

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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:21:25 PM | message detail

I would fully expect Halo 2 to both be more popular than Devil May Cry 3 and do just as much for its main character.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:22:06 PM | message detail

More like Sub-Zero is weak.

There is very little reason to believe this. If Sub-Zero doesn't break the fodder line, I'll eat KH's copy of MGS.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:22:14 PM | message detail

I would fully expect Halo 2 to both be more popular than Devil May Cry 3 and do just as much for its main character.

And your expectations would be wrong.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:22:52 PM | message detail

I would fully expect Halo 2 to both be more popular than Devil May Cry 3 and do just as much for its main character.

Halo 2 being more popular than DMC3 doesn't really relate to boosts. Dante transcends his series, as evidenced by the Series Contest.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:23:17 PM | message detail

by all means, take MC over Ryu. take him over Yoshi. heck, take him over Vivi.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:23:53 PM | message detail

And the fact that it makes his entire four-pack WAYYYYYYYY too high. Just looking at past results involving the other three should tell you that.

And if Master Chief did get anti-voted it would explain that. Why would Master Chief just randomly overperform against Crono?
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

TehMissingLink | Posted 10/12/2006 6:23:54 PM | message detail

If Sub-Zero doesn't break the fodder line, I'll eat KH's copy of MGS.

Prepare to eat!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"

Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2006 6:24:33 PM | message detail

If MC is in the upper 20s like I think he is (saying Halo 2 did nothing or barely anything for the Chief is a ridiculous assumption, IMO), Sub-Zero is done for.
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Character Battle V Score - 28/30 points
Current Prediction - Auron vs. Alucard

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:25:23 PM | message detail

And if Master Chief did get anti-voted it would explain that. Why would Master Chief just randomly overperform against Crono?

Asking WHY random things happen is an unanswerable question, for the record.

But if you're trying to tell me that Master Chief getting anti-voted is the sole reason his entire four-pack (outside of him, of course) is overrated, then you HAVE to take into account the possiblity of Sub-Zero giving him a huge scare.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:26:00 PM | message detail

If MC is in the upper 20s like I think he is (saying Halo 2 did nothing or barely anything for the Chief is a ridiculous assumption, IMO)

Saying DK beats Vivi with ease now is a MORE ridiculous assumption.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:28:49 PM | message detail

This match is all about Sub-Zero to me. If he has legitimate strength, he can definitely pull this sucker off. But even if MC were to crush him with 63% (and really, would you expect Sub-Zero to lose handily to Kefka?) it wouldn't say a damn thing about MC to me. When he stops struggling with characters like frigging' Donkey Kong I'll start respecting his strength. He's never, EVER given me reason not to doubt him against characters around his level of strength.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 6:30:20 PM | message detail

Well, I hate to argue and run, but them's the breaks! Here's hoping I at least wake up to a close match tomorrow!

Go Sub-Zero!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 3: W, 50-12 vs. Superman

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:31:58 PM | message detail

But if you're trying to tell me that Master Chief getting anti-voted is the sole reason his entire four-pack (outside of him, of course) is overrated, then you HAVE to take into account the possiblity of Sub-Zero giving him a huge scare.

There is a large possibility that he will give Master Chief a scare. I never said that there wasn't. I was arguing that there was no reason why accepting Master Chief's ranking had to have bias behind it, especially when logic can explain it, while there is no explanation for Master Chief overperforming.

I'm not saying that it's wrong to argue based on principles like that or that you should always use logic when you make your picks. There's plenty of times when I haven't. I was just defending my predictions.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:37:38 PM | message detail

The same 'logic' that justifies Master Chief's position in the rankings is the logic that had people trying to justify Frog's position in the 2k4 stats. Despite the fact that Liquid Snake was on par with mother****ing Solid Snake.

If you believed in Frog's ranking, you were deluding yourself. The overrating couldn't be verified until much later, but it was obvious from day one that was wrong. The reason doesn't matter.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 6:39:18 PM | message detail

Honestly, in the SFII games, you could say that Guile was the main character. Ryu being that much stronger than Ken has little or nothing to do with him being the "main character."

Last I checked, Guile wasn't the guy bouncing back and forth during the intro "movie" of the SFII games. Ryu is the face of Street Fighter.

As for Subby/MC, Subby will give MC a scare before MC buries him with the day vote. MC will then go on to overperform like hell on Auron. That's just how he rolls.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 6:39:53 PM | message detail

And trusting any x-stat value of MC's is like trusting an x-stat value of Frog.

It's just something you don't do.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:44:36 PM | message detail

Yeah but Frog doesn't get anti-voted like hell. He was just exposed by Samus.
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Auron vs. Alucard / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain (28/30)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:45:08 PM | message detail

Frog isn't really nonlinear.. he just fluked that one match with Solid Snake. everything else points to him being a midcarder.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:45:39 PM | message detail

actually, if anyone is nonlinear out of those two, it's Solid Snake.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 6:46:49 PM | message detail

I just find it odd that he fluked his match with Snake by THAT much.

Not to mention his loss against Smaus seemed a little excessive.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 6:48:02 PM | message detail

excessive? sure, if you thought Frog was at 30%.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 6:48:07 PM | message detail

Not to mention his loss against Smaus seemed a little excessive.

Based on what? Liquid and pre-Halo 2 MC point to that being pretty much spot-on.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

therealmnm | Posted 10/12/2006 6:48:41 PM | message detail

I just find it odd that he fluked his match with Snake by THAT much.

It's called "bandwagoning combined with Solid ****"
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

Yesmar | Posted 10/12/2006 6:54:04 PM | message detail

The same 'logic' that justifies Master Chief's position in the rankings is the logic that had people trying to justify Frog's position in the 2k4 stats. Despite the fact that Liquid Snake was on par with mother****ing Solid Snake.

The only logic for Master Chief boosting is that he got a brand new game which is much more than what people used to justify his boost in 2004. Frankly, I found justifications for Master Chief's rating in 2004 very specious too, but assuming Master Chief didn't boost in 2005 is just as much of an assumption as saying that he didn't. It's not like we don't have evidence that points towards Master Chief anti-votes. I find Felix's ranking in 2003 very suspect.

If you believed in Frog's ranking, you were deluding yourself. The overrating couldn't be verified until much later, but it was obvious from day one that was wrong. The reason doesn't matter.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. Are you saying that there was no reason known originally because reasons for Frog overperforming were given on the day of the match. I'm just trying to say that there is logic for my reason, not that the other possibilites aren't true.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 7:04:00 PM | message detail

The only logic for Master Chief boosting is that he got a brand new game which is much more than what people used to justify his boost in 2004. Frankly, I found justifications for Master Chief's rating in 2004 very specious too, but assuming Master Chief didn't boost in 2005 is just as much of an assumption as saying that he didn't. It's not like we don't have evidence that points towards Master Chief anti-votes. I find Felix's ranking in 2003 very suspect.

Felix's ranking *is* suspect...I'm not arguing that MC isn't non-linear. Heck, the biggest argument for Sub-Zero here is the classic "WHO THE HELL IS FELIX?" argument. I don't think many would argue that MC could have won if Sub-Zero had ended up being in Felix's place that year. I doubt Tanner would have ended up looking like half the chump he was if he had gone up against the Chief.

But along with those same anti-votes is a core fanbase that will vote Master Chief over virtually anyone and everyone -- whether it be Tanner or Link. No way do I buy MC getting only 28% on Link. He'd crack 30% with ease. But there's no way he'd perform like a 30% character.

MC boosted due to Halo 2, no question. A rematch with Frog would no longer be in doubt. BUT -- his 2k5 ranking is just too much, especially for a game that this site isn't receptive to in the first place, on a system that it's even less receptive to, and that in all probability would lose to the original in a direct match.

I don't understand what you're trying to say. Are you saying that there was no reason known originally because reasons for Frog overperforming were given on the day of the match. I'm just trying to say that there is logic for my reason, not that the other possibilites aren't true.

There is 'other' logic, but it is completely and utterly dwarfed by the fact that it is Master tap-dancing Chief we're talking about here. He and his games are not popular here, and never will be.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2006 7:23:25 PM | message detail

As confident as I am in Master Chief winning this, I really hope Sub-Zero pulls off the upset. I have a lot of fond memories from playing the MK series a long time ago and he was one of my favorites in it.
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Character Battle V Score - 28/30 points
Current Prediction - Auron vs. Alucard

Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/12/2006 7:25:21 PM | message detail

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 7:25:34 PM | message detail

I prefer Subby here, though even if I didn't I wouldn't mind losing a point if only because it would finally quiet down the "MC is at 31% on BL!" stuff...or maybe it would just get people to jump on the Sub-Zero = 31% bandwagon! YAY -_-
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Ngamer64 | Posted 10/12/2006 7:26:13 PM | message detail

MC Supporters: Please keep in mind that HBO will not be linking in to help MC, as they have in every past Character Battle.

http://nikon.bungie.org/news.html?item=16134

Also keep in mind that this Summer, without the support of HBO, the infamous 'Halo Day Vote' became more or less non-existent for the first time. And against Castlevania, of all things!

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 7:27:04 PM | message detail

no, if Sub wins it'll be because of Armageddon, not his own strength. you know that's how it'll be explained.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

Draco1214 | Posted 10/12/2006 7:27:46 PM | message detail

If Sub-Zero wins that match, I'll hold off my judgment until I see what Auron does to him in Round 2.
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Character Battle V Score - 28/30 points
Current Prediction - Auron vs. Alucard

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 7:28:02 PM | message detail

You seriously think that DMC3 could beat Halo 2 in a games contest, KH?

No, not at all. I was referring to DMC3 doing more for Dante than Halo 2 did for Chief. Halo 2 beats DMC3, and rather decisively at that.

If DMC3 could take out Halo 2, DMC1 would be stronger than FFX or SSBM!

...please don't try to tell me you think Halo 2 could hang with FFX or SSBM. In any year.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 7:29:59 PM | message detail

HBO thinks our contests are silly?! *sheds a tear*
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 7:30:33 PM | message detail

I don't think HBO was that much of a factor. I really doubt Halo would have won without it.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters

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