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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 385

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:03:56 PM | message detail
And Auron's out to a good start. Let's see how it holds up.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Dekar TKB | Posted 10/11/2006 9:03:56 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2006 9:04:29 PM | message detail
Have we ever seen a match go 83-17 on the first freeze and have the 17 come from behind? Alucard's got this.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:04:41 PM | message detail
Dekar, you ARE aware of Snake/Sora, right...?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 9:05:07 PM | message detail
I'm kinda confused at the people calling for 58% or so. 55% + (Auron - Sora) + KH2 = at least 60% to me. maybe he'll keep it under 60, but I'd expect 61 or 62%.
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xyzzy
charmander6000 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:05:14 PM | message detail
50 charmander6000 29 Samus Aran

I've been on the leaderboard when I was perfect, but this is the first time for when I had a wrong pick.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
King Bowser | Posted 10/11/2006 9:06:16 PM | message detail
Auron is doing damn good right now to be over 60%. Considering Alucard's horrific day vote combined with Auron now in KH2, this is going to be awesome.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Gaddswell | Posted 10/11/2006 9:06:19 PM | message detail
Auron 61.43% 594
Alucard 38.57% 373
TOTAL VOTES 967

Looking more normal now. Funny it updated again after a minute.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:06:46 PM | message detail
Indeed, the point will be either mine or yours HM! (And by that, I mean mine!!)
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Auron vs. Alucard - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (27/30)
cyko | Posted 10/11/2006 9:07:28 PM | message detail
well, my reasoning on today's match is that Ganondorf got 57% on Alucard BEFORE the Great Nintendo Boost of '05. so, i'm figuring that Auron was probably at about that level before Kingdom Hearts 2. figure in a 4-5 point boost for KH2, and i'm calling Auron to finish in the 61-62 range.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:08:05 PM | message detail
I told you goofballs Auron was going to be hanging with Vincent and Squall!

...YES, I am drawing conclusions on a match five minutes in on very iffy competition!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 10/11/2006 9:08:43 PM | message detail
of course, unless Alucard starts pushing Auron overnight, Auron could push for 64-65 with the day vote. MAYBE.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
King Bowser | Posted 10/11/2006 9:08:54 PM | message detail
Hey, I called for Auron here with 64%!

...But Auron still doesn't beat Vincent 2k6!

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:25 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
29-----40-------85.0000000
28-----494------84.8178138
27-----1791-----84.4779453
26-----3803-----80.7520379
25-----5601-----79.5393680
24-----6128-----73.7108355
23-----5554-----69.9855960
22-----5076-----66.6469661
21-----3962-----65.0429076
20-----3129-----64.3016938
19-----2438-----65.4224774
18-----1669-----64.1701618
17-----1139-----66.3740123
16-----723------65.8367911
15-----420------64.5238095
14-----214------65.8878505
13-----93-------64.5161290
12-----50-------70.0000000
11-----17-------52.9411765
10-----14-------42.8571429
9------13-------38.4615385
8------11-------27.2727273
7------14-------14.2857143
6------30-------10.0000000
5------56-------10.7142857
4------70-------5.7142857
3------45-------6.6666667
2------27-------3.7037037
1------25-------4.0000000

Overall prediction percentage: 71.09%

A fairly good performace. Top four tiers manage to break 80.

Seven people fell off the Top 50 today. springer73n01, hmsmichaelot, y0shibot, NoKillEye, PhilCogar, Nihongoguy and Edouble_is_back choose Leon over Bowser. It was close but The Plan seems to have fail just one day short.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Aprosenf | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:49 PM | message detail
For the record, I actually had the first vote for Auron, and it was 1-1 at the time (darn Kaxon got the first vote for Alucard).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:52 PM | message detail
cn's updater caught a 100% update!
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xyzzy
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:52 PM | message detail
Alucard isn't as good as he once was. I thought I was undershooting the expectations of most people... guess I was wrong. If you believe in a significant KH2 boost, you want Auron to break 60% with ease.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Janus5000 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:58 PM | message detail
Massive fall for Auron coming right here.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Big Bob | Posted 10/11/2006 9:09:59 PM | message detail
Actually I had mentioned before that Auron's alongside Bowser in that he has a small chance to upset Crono.

No one paid attention to me though..
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
King Bowser | Posted 10/11/2006 9:10:32 PM | message detail
Holy crap!

Auron increased his percentage! The man is a beast!

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Janus5000 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:10:39 PM | message detail
...Or he can go up. Same thing, really.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Master Moltar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:10:44 PM | message detail
Massive fall for Auron coming right here.

Swing and a miss!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Auron vs. Alucard - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (27/30)
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/11/2006 9:11:27 PM | message detail
I put a lot of faith in Auron to do well. It doesn't look like it was misplaced. The day vote is where Auron is going to absolutely dominate.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:11:39 PM | message detail
Actually I had mentioned before that Auron's alongside Bowser in that he has a small chance to upset Crono.

No one paid attention to me though..


Yeah, it's not like I've been saying that EVERY OTHER DAY or anything. <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:12:23 PM | message detail
Remember that the night vote doesn't really start until 45 minutes into the match. That's quite strange, since it can't all be board 8, but it seems to be true.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2006 9:12:26 PM | message detail
Just you wait! Master Chief will be shutting you all up tomorrow when he pulls a comparable % on Sub Zero!
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:12:56 PM | message detail
Auron's doing around expected if you use Tails.

Though, I don't know what to make of this yet, so.
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Bowser vs. Leon / Bracket: Bowser / Vote: Bowser (27/29)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:12:58 PM | message detail
Ah, yes...Auron going up. That's perfect, since Auron's inevitably going to fall in percentage some with the night vote (which doesn't come in full effect for another hour or two).

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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/11/2006 9:13:07 PM | message detail
Master Chief never had, and never will have a shot at beating Auron.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 9:13:34 PM | message detail
remember that Alucard held the lead for an hour or so with the night vote and Sora ramped it up to a 55% victory. that was 3-4AM EST of course, but Alucard could very well end up with a lower percentage than this.
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xyzzy
King Bowser | Posted 10/11/2006 9:14:45 PM | message detail
I'd be surprised if Auron doesn't get around 64%, if not higher, in this match, myself. Auron's day vote is going to be absolutely brutal.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:14:47 PM | message detail
Auron's doing around expected if you use Tails.

Personally, I like using GANONDORF
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:14:49 PM | message detail
A lot of people don't think Ganondorf boosted between '04 and '05 because Link didn't boost in '05...not a bad theory, really.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:15:07 PM | message detail
Sweet, Auron really did boost a lot if he goes from getting 64% on Tails, Ness, and Scorpion to getting the same exact thing on Alucard!
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Bowser vs. Leon / Bracket: Bowser / Vote: Bowser (27/29)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/11/2006 9:15:45 PM | message detail
Keep going up Auron =)


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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:16:01 PM | message detail
Heh, nice...it would be awesome if he made a 4th victim get 35-36%.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:16:07 PM | message detail
Personally, I like using GANONDORF

I used him too but I thought Ganondorf was a lot stronger in 05 and Tails was a lot more constant.
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Bowser vs. Leon / Bracket: Bowser / Vote: Bowser (27/29)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:16:45 PM | message detail
And another increase.

I said that I would be more confident with Auron (or Squall) instead of Vincent over Ganondorf this year, and he's not letting me down so far.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 10/11/2006 9:17:30 PM | message detail
Sweet, Auron really did boost a lot if he goes from getting 64% on Tails, Ness, and Scorpion to getting the same exact thing on Alucard!

well, maybe not. keep in mind that Alucard only got 52% agianst Tails. their match was in 2002, but Alucard really hasn't had a whole lot of reason to fluctuate in popularity. he might be weaker now (so basically at or below Tails); but i sincerely doubt he would be any stronger than he was in 2002.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:17:59 PM | message detail
I can totally see Auron pushing for a doubling though if the KH day vote is good enough for him. This IS Alucard's best time afterall.
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Auron vs. Alucard / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain (28/30)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero
Mr Purge | Posted 10/11/2006 9:19:19 PM | message detail
I hope Auron beats Crono. >_>
That would be the greatest thing ever.
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 9:20:28 PM | message detail
Alucard definitely looked weaker last year and Soma looked awful against Snake. I maintain that Auron > Crono is more likely than Bowser > Crono as well just because of the potential of a huge boost + some possible rSFF. Bowser probably does better than Auron, but I don't see him as having much of a chance to actually win the match. Auron on the other hand does.

..so, basically, this is pretty much expected for me.
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xyzzy
Janus5000 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:21:14 PM | message detail
This IS Alucard's best time afterall.

Not really - Alucard's best time is the dead hours, which is around 3-7 AM EST.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 9:24:06 PM | message detail
Pfft, Sora boosted with CoM last year -- this is all Snake and Auron, baby!

BOLD PREDICTION: Auron beats Master Chief worse than Crono did.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/11/2006 9:24:13 PM | message detail
.. Oh, cool.

I'd actually have a tough time between Bowser vs Auron. Good thing we'll know since they face the same opponent! <_<
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Auron vs. Alucard / Bracket: Auron / Vote: Abstain (28/30)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Sub-Zero / Vote: Sub-Zero
Lopen | Posted 10/11/2006 9:24:51 PM | message detail
Alucard's been dropping, he's not the same bad dude he once was. I don't think Alucard's too far out the league of Scorpion or Tails anymore (and like cyko pointed out, he might never have been). Had Sub Zero been put up against Alucard, I think I would've taken him for the upset.
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Squall: "Hi, like Cloud from the last game, I am full of angst and am named after weather." - Slow Beef
Draco1214 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:25:47 PM | message detail
Auron's looking really good now. I expected a lot out of him since he had the most memorable cameo in KH2 and is he isn't disappointing me by a longshot now.

GO AURON!
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Character Battle V Score - 28/30 points
Current Prediction - Auron vs. Alucard
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/11/2006 9:25:48 PM | message detail
Looks like the night vote is kicking in...
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:25:50 PM | message detail
To compare voting trends of Alucard and Auron...both GDorf/Alucard and GDorf/Auron started at the typical 12:00 PST.

1 hour in, Ganondorf had 54% on Alucard, and 54% on Auron. At the end of the polls, Ganondorf had 57% on Alucard and 54% on Auron.

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Janus5000 | Posted 10/11/2006 9:26:31 PM | message detail
Actually, looking at the match against Sora, he did pretty well about now, though I think he still did better overall later (or earlier, as it was).
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4