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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 385

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 10:40:07 AM | message detail
It's not my fault I'm always right!

Except when it actually matters!

GANNON-BANNED
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/11/2006 10:40:10 AM | message detail
>_>
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*hides in a box*
>_>~~~SMBX2J[SPARE ROOM]>_>~~~Maviss Coincidence?!?!
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 10:40:11 AM | message detail
You want me, don't even deny it.

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I love bananas.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 10:41:00 AM | message detail
Crono only had 76% bracket support over Simon Belmont. :p

Yeah, and voltch is right about Mega Man and Crono being casual killers...I think we'll see them having horrible bracket support at the start, but in the later rounds they should have decent support. See Crono's prediction percentages last year: 61% had Crono over Vercetti/Kefka/Zidane, then 38% had him over MC/DK, and then a decent 24% had Crono beating Mega Man/Sonic/Vincent/Dante/Squall.

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mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 10:41:13 AM | message detail
Except when it actually matters!

GANNON-BANNED


Pfft... that had nothing to do with me, that's all HM's fault, if it weren't for his brain washing techniques, none of this would have happened. Never again, HM! Never again!

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I love bananas.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/11/2006 10:41:27 AM | message detail
I have wanted you for about a year and a half... You are the one denying it.


>.>


KB
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 10:42:37 AM | message detail
I don't want to be a sinner.
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I love bananas.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/11/2006 10:46:43 AM | message detail
I have been a bad bad boy... I've been careless with a delecate maaaaynn.... It must be a sad sad world... when Mr.Gamefaqs will break a boy just because he can...

DONT you tell me to deny it! I've done wrong and I want to
suffer for my sins I've come to you 'cause I need Guidance to be true And I just don't know where I can begin...


!!!

KB
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 10:47:52 AM | message detail
In my pants.

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I love bananas.
Big Bob | Posted 10/11/2006 10:48:03 AM | message detail
I think this is Leon's actual strength and not Bowser being overrated. Have people forgotten that he beat Ryu to a pulp?
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/11/2006 10:48:18 AM | message detail
Since we've got some interesting results with the three Mario side characters (Peach doesn't count), let's have some fun with numbers.

Should Bowser, Luigi, and Yoshi all manage to be equal (and Bowser finishes with his current percentage of 55.28%):
Leon gets 49.91% on Riku
Leon gets 48.30% on Zero
Riku gets 48.39% on Zero
And Zero > Riku > Leon

If the old 2k3/2k4 proportions for Bowser > Yoshi > Luigi hold up:
Riku gets 43.74% on Leon
Zero gets 41.14% on Leon
Zero gets 47.03% on Riku
And the overall order of the six is Bowser > Leon > Yoshi > Luigi (barely) > Riku > Zero

In either of the above cases, making the opponent of a character stronger makes the character stronger. IE, if you think that Zero would beat both Leon and Riku by more than 52% in case 1, Luigi is the strongest of the three.

If last year's XS for Riku, Zero, and Leon hold up:
Bowser gets 44.36% on Luigi
Yoshi gets 42.74% on Luigi
Yoshi gets 48.18% on Bowser
And Luigi > Bowser > Yoshi

Not that I would ever suggest anything about how the gap between the three has gotten significantly smaller or maybe has even started growing the other way or anything. (Nor is either of the three cases likely, especially the last two.)
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
KingBartz | Posted 10/11/2006 10:48:24 AM | message detail
Wow.. This topic degenerated quickly...
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 28/29 Today's pick: Bowser
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 10:49:08 AM | message detail
Yes, a Ryu that got 45% on Rikku and underperformed against Kratos (which people attributed to Kratos boosting...but what if he didn't?).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/11/2006 10:49:33 AM | message detail
Its EC's fault...


boy I hope applesauce is EC.


KB
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 10:55:48 AM | message detail
Its EC's fault...


boy I hope applesauce is EC.


Erm... ?

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I love bananas.
Big Bob | Posted 10/11/2006 10:57:58 AM | message detail
One of those old FFX polls showed that Rikku > Tidus.

Now I'm not going to say that applies to the contests, but I don't think it would be a stretch for her to end up stronger than Yuna at the least.
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 10:58:10 AM | message detail
More and more I'm convinced Peach is going to have to hope Jill doesn't have much of her former strength (and looking at Sheena, she probably doesn't have that much to worry about). I no longer have faith in Peach performing well, as in I think she'll crumble against Tifa.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 10:59:57 AM | message detail
One of those old FFX polls showed that Rikku > Tidus.

Well, it's a multi-character poll, you're going to get funky results like that.

Now I'm not going to say that applies to the contests, but I don't think it would be a stretch for her to end up stronger than Yuna at the least.

I certainly do. It's the reason why I was convinced Samus had put some significant SFF on Ganondorf. However, if Bowser is overrated that means it's not Yuna that needs adjusting up, but rather Bowser that needs adjusting down...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 11:01:35 AM | message detail
Or both!

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I love bananas.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 11:03:50 AM | message detail
59.5% on Tidus > 61% on Yuna, Bowser still > Ganon silly EC!

Though at least neither are as bad as Star Ocean
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 11:04:45 AM | message detail
House of lies KH, house of complete and disgusting lies!

Star Ocean was totally HM's idea by the way. Totally. >_>

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I love bananas.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/11/2006 11:05:56 AM | message detail
Don't give me credit for that terrible upset! I was so ready to pick Pokemon until you went and threw nasty thoughts into my mind!


AND BOWSER IS SO NOT OVERRATED; WAIT UNTIL ROUND 2!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 11:07:22 AM | message detail
STOP LYING HM, TAKE CREDIT WHERE CREDIT IS DUE.

I'm like hit or miss Lopen, except I only hit!

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I love bananas.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 11:07:34 AM | message detail
Why does no one ever want to take credit for the bandwagons that crash and burn?!?!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/11/2006 11:08:26 AM | message detail
Because HM can't handle the truth!

...and holy hell at that last update for Bowser. 63%

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I love bananas.
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/11/2006 11:08:53 AM | message detail
I take full credit in ruining my bracket with Alyx.

It's too bad no one followed me...
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/11/2006 11:08:54 AM | message detail
I take full responsibility for the Ganon bandwagon!

...It would have happened if Twilight Princess was out!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/11/2006 11:09:55 AM | message detail
Just wait until the after school vote kicks in! Bowser domination, baby!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
NewLib | Posted 10/11/2006 11:11:31 AM | message detail
This reminds me so much of last year after Bowser/Kirby. Not saying Bowser is going to get anywhere near Crono, but I think this is mostly Leon boosting.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:12:43 AM | message detail
I'll take full credit for the Luigi > Tifa bandwagon (which consisted of just me anyway), and, while I'd like to claim credit for the Luigi > Kirby bandwagon, I didn't really bother arguing much for it. So I guess I can't.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 11:12:51 AM | message detail
The fact that there was a Bowser/Kirby last year should make people more suspicious here, not less.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/11/2006 11:21:49 AM | message detail
Phah, I started the Ganon bandwagon before it was even a quickening in HM's mental womb!
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2006 11:23:10 AM | message detail
I started the AKI Man bandwagon. I'm still waiting for others to join though.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
NewLib | Posted 10/11/2006 11:23:11 AM | message detail
Why?

Seriously, why does it seem only Snake is effected by these bad pictures. People explain away not only his bad performance againist Bowser by it, but also Zelda. I mean the only character I can think off of the top of my head that gets effected by pictures is CATS who is fodder known for mostly his picture.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2006 11:24:04 AM | message detail
Don't forget Frog, too.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2006 11:25:45 AM | message detail
Just thinking about things here, Bowser being overrated by a % or 2 still puts him in a very good spot, and allows for a massive but somewhat reasonable Leon boost.

We'll see how Bowser, Luigi and Yoshi perform next round. I'd take Dante > Kirby should it happen, so unless something fishy goes on between Luigi and Kirby, that might give us an idea of who's indirectly stronger between the two.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 10/11/2006 11:26:45 AM | message detail
Because solid **** is totally unrecognizable. Without the name next to it 97% of voters would not know who it is.
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That was too close. You were almost a Jill sandwich.
SC2k6: 28/29 Today's pick: Bowser
NewLib | Posted 10/11/2006 11:26:55 AM | message detail
Snake also had the Solid **** picture againist Ryu and Ryu who has a great sprite didnt overperform.

I think we are taking Frog, easily the most unreliable character ever to appear in this contest (Okay Magus is up there too) to explain something which maybe has only happenend in one match.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2006 11:28:04 AM | message detail
Snake's sprite looks like a turd and his official artwork is almost as bad as Amano's.

Look at Kefka and his massive overperformance when he got Angel Kefka in the VC. Pictures can make a world of difference when your character is completely unreognizable.

I think that's part of the reason Kerrigan is as weak as she is (despite this year's Terra/Sarah going exactly as xstatically projected).

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/11/2006 11:29:03 AM | message detail
I think we are taking Frog, easily the most unreliable character ever to appear in this contest (Okay Magus is up there too) to explain something which maybe has only happenend in one match.

Yay, someone finally agrees with me!

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/11/2006 11:30:06 AM | message detail
I think we are taking Frog, easily the most unreliable character ever to appear in this contest (Okay Magus is up there too) to explain something which maybe has only happenend in one match.

This basically describes it well. I think the idea that Snake underperforms significantly when he has his sprite is absolutely absurd.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:42:32 AM | message detail
Frog won two 50/50 matches in a row... part of the over-performing could be attributed to that, with momentum and all. Also, it's not just Frog getting a sprite pic and Snake look like crap...put them together, and we have one of the biggest picture mis-matches ever, and perhaps it had some sort of a multiplying effect.

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2006 11:43:59 AM | message detail
That match pic swayed my vote.

Just seeing a little Snake sprite on level with Frog's sprite. The animation of Frog jumping towards him and doing a double slash just kept flashing through my head. Then I voted for him >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2006 11:45:52 AM | message detail
To go back to RE4 for a second, now that we're seeing the effects of RE4 being ported to the PS2 and the GC version selling even more since last year...

...in another Game Contest, where do you place it?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
wavedash101 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:46:25 AM | message detail
Add MC and Sora to the erratic character list!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:48:04 AM | message detail
RE4 vs. Metroid Prime...I might actually go with the upset there.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:48:49 AM | message detail
Or maybe it wouldn't be an upset...like I know what people think.

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xp1337 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:49:34 AM | message detail
From Haste_2 | Posted 10/11/2006 2:48:04 PM
RE4 vs. Metroid Prime...I might actually go with the upset there.

I'd take RE4.

I'd vote Prime, but I'd take RE4.
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (025/028) Crono v C. Falcon
wavedash101 | Posted 10/11/2006 11:50:16 AM | message detail
I think Metroid is around what RE has right now, course that changes if MP 3 is amazing. I doubt RE goes any higher until RE5 releases.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 11:50:41 AM | message detail
I would have picked RE4 over MP without hesitation even before the Top 100 List. No way do I believe the biggest RE game falters against the (debatably) second weakest Metroid. Not to mention the Series Contest...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.