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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 385

Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2006 10:03:06 AM | message detail
Ooh...62.5%...maybe Auron -can- continue his trends with getting 64-65% on mid-carders by the end of this.

Okay...because of Castlevania looking good in the series contest, I won't assume Alucard dropped. Plus, Alucard had a horrible pic last year in his loss, making me wonder if he under-performed slightly, anway... So... to compare Auron's performance to Sora's, if Auron ends at 63%, Auron would beat Sora of last year with 58.56%, or Kratos of last year with 67.08%...that's 10 percent better than what Ryu managed.

Assuming Ryu, Bowser, and Kratos didn't change that means Auron beats Ryu with 61.63%, or Auron beats Bowser with 53.23%. That's without having to go through Sora/Snake or Bowser/Snake...

Take note of Kratos possibly boosting a bit, and some of my own pessimism, and I figure Bowser/Auron is a 50/50 match.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2006 10:04:00 AM | message detail
creative, Leon Kennedy was in RE2, as well.

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creativename | Posted 10/12/2006 10:06:11 AM | message detail
Yeah, Bowser/Auron is extremely debatable.

Good to see a bunch of Square characters (Squall/Vincent/Auron) looking like they could challenge or beat the non-top tier Nintendo characters (Bowser/Ganon/Zelda). And maybe Luigi's gone closer to that second group, which is where he should've been from the start.
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2006 10:07:56 AM | message detail
creative, Leon Kennedy was in RE2, as well.

Ah, OK. Was it a large role? Anyway, two RE games shouldn't compare to being the villain in some of the greatest games ever (SMB, SMB3, SMW, SM64).
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/12/2006 10:09:59 AM | message detail
^He was one of the two main characters in RE2.
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consolefreak | Posted 10/12/2006 10:10:02 AM | message detail
Good to see a bunch of Square characters (Squall/Vincent/Auron) looking like they could challenge or beat the non-top tier Nintendo characters (Bowser/Ganon/Zelda). And maybe Luigi's gone closer to that second group, which is where he should've been from the start.

Agreed. I hate to see Tifa omitted from that list of Square near-elites though. She hasn't really had a chance to prove it yet, but she should have boosted a lot from an already respectable position (KH2+AC). I can see her beating Zelda, at least. Aeris might be up there as well.
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Samurai7 | Posted 10/12/2006 10:18:52 AM | message detail
Aeris > Zelda
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creativename | Posted 10/12/2006 10:20:58 AM | message detail
I think I forgot Tifa because I think of the others having possibly boosted this year. Yeah, Tifa and Aeris are near the top for Square. I think Auron/Vincent/Squall might each be above them now though (unless Tifa went up due to KH2, but she had a really forgettable role in that right?). I think Bowser/Ganon would still be favored over Tifa/Aeris, whereas they'd be 50/50 or the underdogs vs. Auron/Squall/Vincent. The girls are probably just a teensy bit behind the boys.

I didn't realize that tomorrow was the last match of the 1st round. Amazing how fast the male bracket has gone by. The female half seemed to drag on forever.

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transience | Posted 10/12/2006 10:21:57 AM | message detail
nice work Haste, but Kratos has most likely increased. it would be hard to justify it otherwise with the amount of new sales his game has done.

how much? I don't know, 2% or something. that's a pure guess. this will likely rise when the afterschool vote comes in an hour plus, too.
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xyzzy
creativename | Posted 10/12/2006 10:22:25 AM | message detail
I thought Aeris/Zelda was more or less a toss-up before the contest, and I still think that. Maybe a slight edge to Zelda, though I picked Aeris.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2006 10:25:12 AM | message detail
Yep, that's why I was saying Auron/Bowser would be more like 50/50, heh. I have kind of a theory going on, though, which suggests Kratos hardly boosted at all...it's interesting how well everything's fit in with it, but I'm not going to rely on it wholly.

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transience | Posted 10/12/2006 10:27:26 AM | message detail
oh and I have no problem with Auron being on Bowser's level really... I maintain that Auron's got a better chance at beating Crono than Bowser does. 50/50 sounds fine to me considering his first role in KH.
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PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/12/2006 10:31:07 AM | message detail
While the first round isn't usually indicative of much, I'd definitely give the edge to Square thus far, especially in the male half of the bracket. Riku performed respectably, Axel broke 30%, Vincent won comfortably, and Auron is kicking ass. Since there's only one debated Nintendo/Square match left (Zelda/Aeris), I'm not sure if you can label this contest as a "Year of ______" unless something very unexpected happens (say, Cloud winning or Link kicking the crap out of Cloud).
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/12/2006 10:38:52 AM | message detail
"^He was one of the two main characters in RE2."

But he was the Male lead, which is about half as good (or less) as being the Female lead. I'm most people only remember Chris because Claire talked about him, and people only remember Leon because he got a secodn shot at Stardom. Put Leon in the 2k2 contest and he bottom feeds on a Kasumi level, maybe lower. Claire would've prolly doubled him without SFF.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2006 10:52:29 AM | message detail
Actually, I take back my theory saying that Kratos didn't boost...I guess Kratos, Alucard, and Sora could've been slightly weaker than I would've originally guessed.

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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/12/2006 11:01:03 AM | message detail
I think Bowser/Ganon would still be favored over Tifa/Aeris, whereas they'd be 50/50 or the underdogs vs. Auron/Squall/Vincent.

Ganon IS the underdog when facing Vincent and Squall as far as I am concerned.

I used to think Bowser > Ganondorf until yesterday... now I dont know.


KB
Haste_2 | Posted 10/12/2006 11:04:28 AM | message detail
I think I'd Ganondorf over Bowser at this point. I might actually take Squall over Bowser, too. I wouldn't have even dreamed of the latter inequality before this contest, so...we'll see how things go in the later rounds.

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voltch | Posted 10/12/2006 11:47:40 AM | message detail
so how far behind is magus from the high midcarder group consisting of characters like ganon,zelda,squall,auron?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/12/2006 11:58:15 AM | message detail
Wow... this match is absolutely shocking me. Even though I think Auron is underrated last year, this is still far exceeding my expectations. Auron 2K5 doesn't even break 52% on Alucard 2K4 using lol x-stats, yet he's absolutely dominating right now. This only lends more credence to the Vincent > Sonic train, though Sonic's still the favorite, it's making me definitely think Ganon and Auron are underrated last year, which makes Vincent's win even more powerful.

Give it up, EC. KHF happened.
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transience | Posted 10/12/2006 12:01:33 PM | message detail
EC's one-day streak of being right ends!
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xyzzy
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/12/2006 12:11:40 PM | message detail
It sucks that Magus didn't get in this year (not as much as Knuckles not getting in, though). He's projected to score over 45% on Squall, which is still fairly strong. I know he was an overrated bust, and all, but still. Even putting him in Tingle's spot could have made for a somewhat debatable 1/8 (though I'd still probably take Sora). Putting him in place of Riku, Ryu H, Kratos, and probably a few more would also have been interesting.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 12:11:49 PM | message detail
(unless Tifa went up due to KH2, but she had a really forgettable role in that right?).

Nah, that would be Aeris. Tifa's role is rather cool, and she plays a part in the Sephiroth sidequest as well.

But I don't see what the problem is with Leon Kennedy being a high midtier character drawing primarily from one game. We've got plenty of those from Final Fantasy. Leon can't do it because he's not an RPG character?

I might actually take Squall over Bowser, too. I wouldn't have even dreamed of the latter inequality before this contest,

2006 - The year of Squall's vindication!
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 12:20:34 PM | message detail
At the 15:15 mark, this match has 69107 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Kratos/Ryu - 69123
Sonic/CATS - 66704
Crono/Falcon - 67113
Bowser/Leon - 69628
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 12:21:47 PM | message detail
And Auron's going up noticeably with the after school vote here.
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/12/2006 12:22:46 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero > Master Chief

Got it memorized?
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 12:24:02 PM | message detail
It's almost as certain as Tigers > Athletics!
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King Bowser | Posted 10/12/2006 12:47:12 PM | message detail
<Ah, OK. Was it a large role? Anyway, two RE games shouldn't compare to being the villain in some of the greatest games ever (SMB, SMB3, SMW, SM64).

You could say that about a lot of characters. Why should Vincent, an optional character in an RPG, be able to be even near someone as iconic as Bowser? Just because he wasn't in an RPG doesn't mean Leon shouldn't be able to hang with the big guys.

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Master Moltar | Posted 10/12/2006 12:52:28 PM | message detail
I was wondering when Auron would start increasing when I checked at school, and he's gone up nearly .5% since I checked about 2 hours ago, heh.

Anyway, very nice performance. As expected, Auron did get a nice boost from his KH2 role, but what to do with Alucard now...
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Auron vs. Alucard - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Auron (27/30)
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:11:49 PM | message detail
63% breached. All according to Plan.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 1:12:46 PM | message detail
not bad, Auron. Alucard's a joke in the day, but this is pretty impressive. Auron's never been a day vote kinda guy either.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:19:01 PM | message detail
Auron's percentage in the last hour: 66.80%

If he keeps that up, he could realistically shoot for 64% by the end.
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King Bowser | Posted 10/12/2006 1:21:35 PM | message detail
64%? That was my prediction!

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2006 1:26:16 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=989

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2529

OMG IMPRESSIVE
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 1:28:35 PM | message detail
Auron is impressing. This helps out with Yoshi > Dante, and makes Bowser set up to overperform on Corno

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/12/2006 1:29:22 PM | message detail
MK Armageddon the number one FAQ the day before Sub-Zero's match. Well, it can't hurt!

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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
King Bowser | Posted 10/12/2006 1:30:20 PM | message detail
Auron is impressing. This helps out with Yoshi > Dante, and makes Bowser set up to overperform on Corno

You're going to have to explain to me how that is all connected.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 1:34:49 PM | message detail
Auron impressing implies that KH2 characters did in fact boost, which means that a smaller Nintendo boost is indeed possible (lol luigi) and Bowser underperforming on Leon was more Leon boosting than anything else.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:36:55 PM | message detail
Auron's percentage by hour:

0:00-1:00 - 61.33%
1:00-2:00 - 60.98%
2:00-3:00 - 60.50%
3:00-4:00 - 61.15%
4:00-5:00 - 61.74%
5:00-6:00 - 64.47%
6:00-7:00 - 66.05%
7:00-8:00 - 67.01%
8:00-9:00 - 63.84%
9:00-10:00 - 62.78%
10:00-11:00 - 60.76%
11:00-12:00 - 60.39%
12:00-13:00 - 61.29%
13:00-14:00 - 61.05%
14:00-15:00 - 64.29%
15:00-16:00 - 66.38%

And I'm going to have to second HM's question about how this relates in any way to Dante/Yoshi or Crono/Bowser. Note that the stronger Auron looks, the stronger Dante looks.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:38:49 PM | message detail
and Bowser underperforming on Leon was more Leon boosting than anything else.

Or...it could be a combination of BOTH! But still...how in the world is a KHII boost connected to a second Nintendo boost anyway?

Please don't use an apparently isolated incident (Luigi is the only Nintendo character so far who has shown noticeable evidence of any sort of boost) to tie everything together like that.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 1:39:27 PM | message detail
Auron has little to do with Danta, but Riku is looking to have legitimately boosted to hell.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:40:21 PM | message detail
*eyes bulge at three 70% updates in a row for Auron*

...The day vote for Crono/Auron will certainly be interesting.

And Auron/MC, if the Chief survives against Sub-Zero!
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/12/2006 1:40:54 PM | message detail
Auron has little to do with Danta

LOL Ganondorf/Vincent
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King Bowser | Posted 10/12/2006 1:45:07 PM | message detail
Auron impressing implies that KH2 characters did in fact boost, which means that a smaller Nintendo boost is indeed possible (lol luigi) and Bowser underperforming on Leon was more Leon boosting than anything else.

You're really stretching things there. I love the idea of Nintendo characters boosting again, but as of now there is little evidence to point to that. Certain Nintendo characters have looked impressive, but nothing yet to claim there's another boost.

And while the Bowser/Leon match is indeed primarily Leon boosting from RE4 on the PS2, it's tough to say if it was all that or mixed in with Bowser dropping every so slightly.

We knew there would be a KH2 boost this year; we just don't know how far it extends or how large it will be. Today's match, thanks to Alucard's questionable value last year, doesn't tell us much outside of the fact that it's clearly present. Outside of the clear KH2 boost, the only other thing we can make out of today is that in all likelihood Ganon was underrated last year, which in turn brings up Auron.

No need to stretch it out to showing that there is a potential second Nintendo boost. We'll get evidence of that in the second round and on.

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voltch | Posted 10/12/2006 1:46:17 PM | message detail
Round 2 is soon upon us,only few days now until the competition really steps up.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 1:48:56 PM | message detail
Luigi boosting is the only logical explanation for him beating Zero that easily. I'm not saying it was a massive boost, but enough that Yoshi should be able to still beat Dante.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/12/2006 1:50:18 PM | message detail
I don't honestly think Luigi is way up there. Zero had to have dropped or Luigi had some serious SFF advantage. I choose to think it's a combination of the former and Luigi possibly boosting a bit.
trannyscience | Posted 10/12/2006 1:52:57 PM | message detail
ah yes, and Vincent beating Ganondorf means Aeris is going to destroy Zelda! cause you know, characters are tied at the hip like that.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
cardboard_BoxA_ | Posted 10/12/2006 1:52:57 PM | message detail
Round 2 is approaching!
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/12/2006 1:53:12 PM | message detail
Yoshi > dante

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
cardboard_BoxA_ | Posted 10/12/2006 1:53:17 PM | message detail
*Rubs nipples*
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