GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 384
| trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2006 6:42:30 PM | message detail |
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Snake (2004c) VS Frog (2005c) Snake has a strength of 33.05. Frog has a strength of 24.97. Snake wins with 62.22% of the vote! A win of 22,563 with 92,289 total votes cast. eh, it's only 10% I made a random guess. you can go on believing that Samus is worth 55654% on Link if you like though! --- xyzzy "12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:42:59 PM | message detail |
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eh, it's only 10% I made a random guess. you can go on believing that Samus is worth 55654% on Link if you like though! That's not how x-stats work, silly goose! --- I'm so hardcore. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2006 6:43:14 PM | message detail |
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Frog over-performed on Solid Snake for the same reason Magus over-performed on Link: who the **** knows. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:43:40 PM | message detail |
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Actually it's because Link is a weak piece who is capable of being rSFF'd by anyone. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 6:43:52 PM | message detail |
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Back to the NSMB boost? It truly exists, Bowser has to benefit more
than Luigi. His role was very well like in that game...though it would
have been nice if Bowser also had Super Paper Mario backing him as
well. Then Bowser>Crono would actually seem feasible... I'm not sure why there is still that lingering doubt about NSMB being a factor. If role mattered, though, I would expect Bowser to get a bigger increase out of it than Luigi. But I think just it releasing will help the two out, and Mario as well, but we won't be able to see any of those effects, I don't think. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:46:23 PM | message detail |
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Frog over-performed on Snake far more than Magus did... --- Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 6:48:56 PM | message detail |
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Frog over-performed on Snake far more than Magus did... By all means, believe Magus 2k5. I'll be laughing when he loses to Zero. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:51:23 PM | message detail |
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I'll be laughing when Zero loses to PoP! --- I'm so hardcore. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2006 6:53:27 PM | message detail |
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bah, this conversation reminds me of how unpredictable the side characters are in CT. and the only one we got was Marle. darn you girls --- xyzzy "12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2006 6:53:58 PM | message detail |
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I'll be laughing when Zero loses to Luigi! --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:54:11 PM | message detail |
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darn you cjay --- I'm so hardcore. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:54:43 PM | message detail |
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I'll be laughing when Zero loses to Luigi! I already, and quite heartily might I add! --- I'm so hardcore. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2006 6:57:12 PM | message detail |
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As did I! Hig-five 'cuz we're so god-damn cool!!! --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 6:57:31 PM | message detail |
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^5 IMHO! --- I'm so hardcore. |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 6:59:11 PM | message detail |
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In an attempt to see just how Bowser did with the day vote, I compared how he was doing at 7:00 AM until the end of the match! Bowser/Chun-Li -- Decrease - 0.32% Bowser/Ryu -- Increase - 0.02% Bowser/Solid Snake -- Increase - 2.28% Leon Kennedy/Gordon Freeman -- Increase - 1.33% Leon Kennedy/Mega Man -- Decrease - 0.79% Bowser is clearly more impressive and therefore will take the day vote against Leon Kennedy. Book it plz! --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:00:26 PM | message detail |
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Where's Kirby? =P --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2006 7:02:07 PM | message detail |
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For what it's worth, Bowser has NEVER won the second night vote to my knowledge -- he gives up alot of ground there. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2006 7:02:26 PM | message detail |
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Kirby never happened. I am going to feel bad drawing any conclusions over this match. Bowser overrated? RE4 for PS2? NSMB? overperforming on Mega Man? (GF sure ain't worth 22%!) who knows! we'll just have to wait for Bowser/Crono. --- xyzzy "12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 7:02:35 PM | message detail |
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Whoops! I forgot that one. Let's see here... ... That match was just crazy anyway. We don't need that one. << (Bowser/Kirby -- Decrease - 2.12%) --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:08:47 PM | message detail |
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Match XXX: (4) Bowser vs. (5) Leon Kennedy Contest History Bowser Summer 2003 Defeated Ness, 75.07% - 24.93% Defeated Yoshi, 56.34% - 43.66% Lost to Cloud Strife, 29.97% - 70.03% Ranked: 17th Summer 2004 Defeated Guybrush Threepwood, 82.99% - 17.01% Lost to Mario, 29.35% - 70.65% Ranked: 31st Spring 2005 Defeated Pyramid Head, 83.88% - 16.12% Defeated Sigma, 78.07% - 21.93% Defeated Revolver Ocelot, 65.99% - 34.01% Lost to Sephiroth, 40.45% - 59.55% Ranked: 3rd Summer 2005 Defeated Chun Li, 65.90% - 34.10% Defeated Ryu, 58.98% - 41.02% Defeated Kirby, 52.12% - 47.88% Lost to Solid Snake, 49.41% - 50.59% Ranked: 9th Leon Kennedy Summer 2005 Defeated Gordon Freeman, 58.57% - 41.43% Lost to Mega Man, 35.44% - 64.56% Ranked: 26th Analysis: Bowser is from the Super Mario series. 2005 we saw the year where many Noble Nine breakers took a fall in popularity, but Bowser is one of the characters to fill back in the ranks. He was the closest at beating a member of the Noble Nine and this year he gets another chance, too bad this member is a little stronger than Snake. Leon is from the Resident Evil series. Last year many people thought he would be the first to break 60% on Gordon Freeman and when he didn’t he was considered a flop to people, then he turns around and breaks 35% against Mega Man. As of now he is the strongest RE character to have been in a bracket. Bowser being a near elite shouldn’t have too much of a problem against Leon. A thing that still needs to be seen through was whether Bowser was overrated because of Snake/Bowser. This is almost near the end of first round and we still haven’t had a match that would at least give some insight about that match. Personally I don’t think there was too much of an over performance because Snake usually gets really bad pictures in contests except for the Snake/Sora match. He is basically going by name recognition in over 80% of his matches. Bowser shouldn’t have too much of a problem breaking 60% and even if Snake/Bowser was overrated he still has NSMB to fall on. If he puts up Mega Man-like numbers then it might be possible for Bowser to beat Crono. charmander6000’s Bracket: Bowser over Leon Kennedy charmander6000’s Prediction: Bowser wins, 62.37% - 37.63% --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2006 7:10:26 PM | message detail |
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On to something new! Boosts for games coming out in 2k6/2k7 (The games I list "total" for are if both games are out by next contest): Solid Snake: +3.5% MGS4, + 6.5% SSBB, +8% total. This is from 2k5 BTW, any hype boost he gets in this contest is included in the above. Bowser: +1-4% SMG, + 2-4% SSBB. He stands to gain the most from any Nintendo in SSBB, if he's good, and an awesome role in SMG could gain him a big boost. Conversely, I'd expect even an absence of Bowser to gain him at least a %. Mario: +2.5% SMG, +1.5% SSBB. Pretty straightforward. SMG will have a good effect, being the first great Mario game since SM64, and SSBB will have some effect. Link: +2.5% TP, +1.5% SSBB, +1% PH. TP would gain him a bigger boost, but he's already so high, and some of the boost has been absorbed by hype. PH wouldn't give him anything at all, but it's got OMG TEH DS!!! power behind it. Luigi: +1-5% SMG, +2% SSBB. Luigi having the same role as in SMB1, 3, or World = great boost. Otherwise, it's just little. Sonic: +1-3% Sonic Wildfire, +1-2% Sonic Next Gen (does this have a name yet?). It all depends how good they are. Sonic Next isn't looking great now, but Wildfire could be hot. Peach: +1.5% SMG, +3% SSBB. Peach could benefit nicely from SSBB, just because she's low right now. Ness : +3% Mother 1-3 (if they come out), + 3.5% SSBB, +6% total. Mother 1-3 would be great for Ness, and if they don't come out, the SSB reliant will get the biggest SSBB boost. Fox: Up to at least 25%BL, from all his games/underrating in 2k2/2k3 Kratos: +3.5% GoW2. This will be very nice for Kratos. About as nice as KH2 for Sora, IMO. Dante: +1-4% DMC4. His role could be tiny, or it could be huge. Zelda: +3-6% TP, +1-2% SSBB. Zelda with a sword! Zelda's SSBB boost relies on how good Zelda is, rather than Sheik, in that game. Cecil: 2% FFIVA. Not a big deal, but he'd get a little from it, and it's easier to boost when weak. Terra/Celes/Kefka: +2.5% FFVIA. It'll be out by next contest, right? And it should be more popular than FFIVA. Yoshi: +1-4% SMG, +1-2% SSBB, +2-3% Yoshi's Island 2. If Yoshi gets a great role in SMG and is great in SSBB and YI2 is a great game, expect great things from Yoshi. Donkey Kong: +1.5-2.5% SSBB. Uhh... Knuckles: Is he even in the next Sonic games? If so, he'll get a similar boost to Sonic, if not, look for about +1%. Ganon: +3-6% TP, +2% SSBB. Killing Link = win. Kirby: +2.5% Kirby Wii (formerly Kirby GCN), +1.5-3% SSBB. This takes into account Kirby dropping a bit this year. Samus: +1.5% MP3, +3% SSBB. Samus is apparently SSBB reliant, but MP3 not being a launch game hurts her terribly. And I think that's it. Obviously some of the characters boosting from multiple games would have slightly smaller boosts, but only slightly unless I've noted it otherwise, or it's close to the maximum end for all their boosts. Comments, anyone? --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:10:59 PM | message detail |
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From trannyscience Posted 10/10/2006 9:53:27 PM bah, this conversation reminds me of how unpredictable the side characters are in CT. and the only one we got was Marle. darn you girls I've been saying this for weeks now. Screw Knuckles, the biggest snubs were Magus and Frog, who are both all over the map in their past matches. Need an unreliable value that will tell you nothing? Put someone against one of those two, or Master Chief. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:11:48 PM | message detail |
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According to HM we probably won't have MGS4 or SSBB by the next contest. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Big Bob | Posted 10/10/2006 7:13:23 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser breaks 70% tomorrow... Crono is so screwed. Not likely to happen, though. --- "My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:13:31 PM | message detail |
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Cecil: 2% FFIVA. Not a big deal, but he'd get a little from it, and it's easier to boost when weak. FF4A has been out for about a year now. I doubt anything he got from it carries over to next contest. Other than that, alot of your boosts seem really high, especially Ness' TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:14:07 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser can get the doubling I'll consider him an outside threat to Crono. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2006 7:15:13 PM | message detail |
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According to HM we probably won't have MGS4 or SSBB by the next contest. SSBB, quite possibly. MGS4? Wasn't there some hype about it being on Snake's birthday in July or something? It's possible, but not as likely as SSBB. FF4A has been out for about a year now. I doubt anything he got from it carries over to next contest. Well, it came out after 2k5, and like I said, it's easier to boost when weak. Other than that, alot of your boosts seem really high, especially Ness' I thought my Ness explanation made sense. Getting two new games and remake would be a big deal for him, and the SSB-reliant should boost more from SSBB. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:15:21 PM | message detail |
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A doubling is ABOVE what Crono is expected to get, and that's with RE4
coming out on the PS2 since then. That'd be more than "an outside
threat". --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:17:26 PM | message detail |
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Bowser (2005c) VS Leon Kennedy (2005c) Bowser has a strength of 36.54. Leon Kennedy has a strength of 27.50. Bowser wins with 62.37% of the vote! A win of 22,609 with 91,386 total votes cast. Assuming Bowser overratedness = PS2 RE4 boost, that's a good value to look at. If he boosts to a doubling, then I'll give him an outside shot at upsetting Crono, but I won't believe it. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:18:21 PM | message detail |
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Also, are those 'boosts' based on percentage points on BL? As in, Snake would be boosting to 45% on Base Link? Man, I'm optimistic, but that may be a little much... --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:19:52 PM | message detail |
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Assuming Bowser overratedness = PS2 RE4 boost ...what? --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| trannyscience | Posted 10/10/2006 7:21:21 PM | message detail |
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more like 46% since he can't add! --- xyzzy "12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:22:39 PM | message detail |
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KH, you also have to take into account that Link will be boosting in
his boost chart as well. I wouldn't be surprised to see Snake
performing close to expected compared to BL, but completely destroying
anybody else. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2006 7:24:00 PM | message detail |
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Also, are those 'boosts' based on percentage points on BL? As in, Snake would be boosting to 45% on Base Link? Yep. I think we've seen that overall, the field gets stronger each year. Snake 2k5 would blow away most of the field in 1995, including Link and possibly Mario. But even with MGS4 and SSBB, Snake wouldn't be breaking 40% on Link 2k7, sadly. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:24:12 PM | message detail |
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I don't see Leon boosting too much from his PS2 version. You have to remember that: 1. Alot of people preferred the Gamecube version 2. All the people that have played the GC version only will be SFF affected 3. The PS2 version didn't sell that much better, did it? TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| xp1337 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:24:36 PM | message detail |
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That list is obviously missing Alucart. Alucard boosts to 97% on BL. Book it --- xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out? SC2k6 (025/028) Crono v C. Falcon |
| Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2006 7:29:44 PM | message detail |
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Heh, Alucard could actually get a decent boost from SotN on XBLA. Games
have actually been selling in the hundreds of thousands there, which
might be a bit of a preview for the Wii VC. I have no idea which games
are coming out on the VC though, or when. We could see CT VC in May, or
we could see it in May 2k9. Alucard: +1-3.5% SotN XBLA port. This could be pretty big, but it's for the Xbox, but it's a new audience, but it could flop, etc. --- Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/10/2006 7:36:02 PM | message detail |
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I'm surprised that CF is stalling Crono's second night vote. --- Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:36:42 PM | message detail |
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We don't have a second night vote anymore. Just a stall. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| KamikazePotato | Posted 10/10/2006 7:41:47 PM | message detail |
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Really? I thought there was some semblance of a second night vote left. Bah, as much as I love the new time, this lack of vote changes means less interesting matches. --- Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero. |
| Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:45:38 PM | message detail |
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Somehow I think it's possible for Bowser to overperform on Leon...don't
ask me why. Or maybe Leon Kennedy overperformed on Mega Man last or
something. It'll take 70% on Leon for Bowser to convince me he has a
good shot at beating Crono... otherwise, even if Bowser gets, say, 67%
on Leon, I won't be convinced Bowser has a good shot unless Yoshi beats
Dante. --- Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799 |
| Xuxon | Posted 10/10/2006 7:47:44 PM | message detail |
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Bowser won the second night vote against Mario! He gained .15%! --- Take off every sig. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:49:54 PM | message detail |
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Crono really needs to get back to 74.15% --- I'm so hardcore. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 7:50:31 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser can outperform Mega Man when Leon had his game ported to the
PS2 since that match, I will tentatively hop on the Bowser > Crono
bandwagon, or at least the Bowser Will Give Crono a Scare bandwagon. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:52:26 PM | message detail |
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How about when Bowser gets 56.5%? --- I'm so hardcore. |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/10/2006 7:54:14 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser can outperform Mega Man when Leon had his game ported to
the PS2 since that match, I will tentatively hop on the Bowser >
Crono bandwagon, or at least the Bowser Will Give Crono a Scare
bandwagon. You must not be aware of how well Leon did on Mega Man: http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2112 Like I said, a doubling would be very impressive. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:55:08 PM | message detail |
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If Bowser doubled Leon, I might have to never talk about contest matches again. --- I'm so hardcore. |
| BDawg | Posted 10/10/2006 7:58:00 PM | message detail |
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Hoo boy I waded through a lot of pages of hypotheticals and junk. But
anyway too bad we don't have exit polls, seeing as a lot of matches
just make no sense. And then some things are accepted as being the
cause when nobody really knows. But anyway nice to see Falcon actually
had a little punch in his day vote. --- Should I start running now? |
| Yesmar | Posted 10/10/2006 7:59:49 PM | message detail |
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Killing Link = win. Wait! What? Please tell me this is presumption and not a huge leaked spoiler. --- Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII |
| MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 8:05:16 PM | message detail |
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SSBB, quite possibly. MGS4? Wasn't there some hype about it being on Snake's birthday in July or something? It's possible, but not as likely as SSBB. Kojima has stated that we can expect to see MGS4 in late 2007 at the earliest. As for SSBB, given that Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 are heading up Nintendo's first half of the year, it makes sense that SSBB would be saved for the ending of the year. It doesn't appear to be anywhere near done to be out before the next contest anyway. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |