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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 384

FourthDeus | Posted 10/10/2006 9:58:58 PM | message detail
? I don't know what you're talking about.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 9:59:01 PM | message detail
I don't think you have to worry about ten year olds procreating quite yet.
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xyzzy
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 9:59:06 PM | message detail
I'm pretty sure I've mentioned this before, but all the Nintendo characters who've "disappointed" were either against someone who we have absolutely no clue about (PoP) or someone that's had every reason to boost to all hell (Riku). Everyone except Luigi of course. It's my belief that there WAS a big Nintendo boost, but it's being masked by every match except Luigi/Zero.

Think about it, out of all of the opponents Nintendo characters have had this year so far, Zero is the only one who realistically could've stayed constant.

That plus Riku could very well have been pretty damn underrated through Frog and Samus/Mario.

This is making Yoshi > Dante and Mega Man > Snake look good.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/10/2006 9:59:31 PM | message detail
I don't think you have to worry about ten year olds procreating quite yet.

You'd think that, wouldn't you!
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CB5 Points: 27/29, Current Oracle placement: 7/163
Now playing: Okami
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/10/2006 10:01:20 PM | message detail
Good show by Leon here! I always knew that RE4 PS2 + Player's Choice on the GCN would give him as good of a boost as Dante got from DMC3!
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/10/2006 10:01:37 PM | message detail
Leon owns ass.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:03:32 PM | message detail
Also, don't be surprised if Mega Man completely tanks against Sora (expectation-wise).

Though all this KH2 boosting really does make me wonder about Snake/Squall. Right now, I'd say that match is most likely Noble Nine breakage this year, though I still don't give it too much thought.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:04:09 PM | message detail
And assuming a constant Bowser, what's Leon at on BL?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
FourthDeus | Posted 10/10/2006 10:04:45 PM | message detail
Mega Man and Nintendo performing below expectation this contest has made me very happy.

Oh yeah, GOOO Luigi. Lose to Sonic like you were destined to.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:05:55 PM | message detail
Didn't you read what I just pos....oh, troll. Carry on.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 10:07:20 PM | message detail
And assuming a constant Bowser, what's Leon at on BL?

Assuming Bowser is didn't increase (Oh yes), Leon is at 31.7%, or around there, on BL. That puts him in between Luigi 2k5 and Magus 2k5.

That would equate to around a 3.8% boost.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Big Bob | Posted 10/10/2006 10:07:43 PM | message detail
Leon's gonna start winning updates here in a second.
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:09:35 PM | message detail
3.8%, that's a little high, but you also have to take into consideration that Bowser could concievably increase percentage during the day.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:11:04 PM | message detail
Thinking about it, this performance isn't too surprising. Wish I gave RE4 boosting more credit in my oracle pick.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 10:12:02 PM | message detail
If people can buy Dante boosting 5% in 2005, I hope people could easily buy Leon boosting 3.8% from RE4 releasing on the platform that Resident Evil games usually release on.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:15:10 PM | message detail
At any rate, any thoughts on Subby/MC?

I saw that new MK game mentioned today, so I assume it's out?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:16:09 PM | message detail
How much did the PS2 port sell and how many more did the GC version get since last contest?

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/10/2006 10:17:03 PM | message detail
I think the GCN version sold an additional 200,000 and the PS2 version sold 610,000.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
greatone10 | Posted 10/10/2006 10:34:21 PM | message detail
People still think Vincent actually boosted from DoC, which didn't even come close to those numbers, so Leon boosting should not be out of the question.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/10/2006 10:36:52 PM | message detail
I saw that new MK game mentioned today, so I assume it's out?

I think the PS2 version is... X-Box version is still a few days off.

But the PS2 is probably the one that matters.
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Dancing with myself! Oh-oh! Dancing with myself! Oh-oh!
And I'll sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! SWEAT! SWEAT!
creativename | Posted 10/10/2006 10:44:15 PM | message detail
Looks like I should've paid more attention to the x-stats, keeping in mind Bowser's overratedness. My Oracle pick was 63%, which is more in line with what most were expecting, even though reasonably adjusted stats made that seem to high.

We all knew Bowser was overrated - well, except for the occasional crackhead anyway ;) - but I still had more confidence in him than Leon...I just couldn't see how a guy like Leon scores so high on an icon like Bowser. I was thinking Leon's ranking was a bit flukish, but I guess not.

Hopefully Bowser brings it closer to 60% during the day, though I'm a bit skeptical, as Bowser has an above average but not outstanding day vote.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/10/2006 10:48:24 PM | message detail
PS2 RE4, creative. Bowser overrated + that = awesomesauce Leon.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:48:55 PM | message detail
We'll see if Vincent boosted next round against Sonic.

At first I was against it, but after Luigi/Zero, it dawned on me that there may have been a second Nintendo boost that's just been masked by KH2/Vincent/Leon boosting and new characters.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 10:51:25 PM | message detail
It's kinda sad though, because this will be the last contest for at least a little while that the Noble Nine can be broken easily. They're all just going to be getting big releases over the next few years, aside from MM and Crono who I can't see decreasing.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/10/2006 11:10:41 PM | message detail
lol @ 2nd Nintendo boost

Just stop.

TG
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/10/2006 11:10:42 PM | message detail
MM might decrease. He's the one NNer whose franchise desperately needs a paradigm shift.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/10/2006 11:20:36 PM | message detail
I wonder if Capcom did a well done Metroid-like FPS for the Wii, but made it more combat centric if it would boost MM.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 11:42:49 PM | message detail
Come on, Leon...win an update!

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 11:58:30 PM | message detail
We all knew Bowser was overrated - well, except for the occasional crackhead anyway ;) - but I still had more confidence in him than Leon...I just couldn't see how a guy like Leon scores so high on an icon like Bowser. I was thinking Leon's ranking was a bit flukish, but I guess not.

Heh, it seems most people didn't believe it. I didn't believe it, and it certainly helps the theory...funny how Kratos and Leon Kennedy were the two semi-new characters I expected to see a boost from (due to RE4 -> PS2 and massive GoW sales) before the contest started, so in that perspective, Bowser being overrated by very much is still inconclusive in my eyes. I still think the best evidence of Bowser being overrated are his matches against Revolver Ocelot, and...maybe Bowser doing worse than Ganondorf against Sephiroth. I could elaborate more on my thinking of all this, but I'm too lazy right now.

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/11/2006 12:21:20 AM | message detail
Leon just gained 16 votes. Comeback time! :P
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Supporter of Alucard.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/11/2006 12:37:31 AM | message detail
Leon's looking good! He's won 2 of the last 4 updates.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/11/2006 12:39:42 AM | message detail
Leon rocks the party that rocks the body.

A-DAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!
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~*Ex~Tha*~
Sometimes it's darkest just before dawn.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 12:59:26 AM | message detail
How Bowser massively not meeting expectations in this match is somehow indicative of a SECOND Nintendo boost boggles my mind. Can people just not accept that Nintendo may not be as dominant this year as last? Or at least, that they won't be any MORE dominant?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/11/2006 1:35:47 AM | message detail
And jeezus, Leon is just making a killing here. He's not going to be as bad as Snake was in the day, and Bowser isn't that good with the day vote anyway...

...I repeat, there is NO second Nintendo boost.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Chinballz | Posted 10/11/2006 1:40:11 AM | message detail
Saddler, YOU'RE small time!
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And that's The Word.
Starion | Posted 10/11/2006 1:57:54 AM | message detail
But the thing is, the Zelda series won the last contest (where FF was favored to win) and that was only a few months ago. That's a result that doesn't make a whole lot of sense if Nintendo was weaker now than last year.
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Now playing: Castlevania:AOS | Queue: Castlevania:DOS, Okami | Waiting for: FF12, Castlevania:POR
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2006 2:19:28 AM | message detail
Well, maybe that's what causes the difference.

I mean, when someone wins the spring contest, the opposite affiliations wins the following summer contest. Maybe it's backlash >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/11/2006 2:22:09 AM | message detail
And assuming Bowser was overrated, this really isn't all that big of a Leon boost. If Bowser ends at around 57%, which I think is likely, that boosts Leon by like, less than 2%. Not really a big deal.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/11/2006 4:16:16 AM | message detail
I'm quite surprised Leon is doing so well! *Claps* Good game, Mr. Kennedy. I hope this is more of a testament to a Leon increase than Bowser being overrated though.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
cyko | Posted 10/11/2006 4:32:10 AM | message detail
well then. Leon is doing MUCH better than i expected. i can't believe that he actually won a couple of updates while i slept. yeah, it seems that Nintendo definitely isn't dominating as much as it did last year. and that just confuses me even more about Luigi vs. Zero.......

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2006 4:34:01 AM | message detail
I wonder if Capcom did a well done Metroid-like FPS for the Wii, but made it more combat centric if it would boost MM.

They haven't done that because there is already an action-packed FPS where you can't aim up or down. It's called Doom. =P
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
HaRRicH | Posted 10/11/2006 4:35:35 AM | message detail
As for today...I'm going to give much more credit to Leon boosting than Bowser being over-rated AND I'll keep in mind that this match is hardly over, but Bowser's not going to leave this looking like Crono-killer material.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 5:16:35 AM | message detail
Dream looks worse and worse by the match.. but I agree, this is more Leon than it is Bowser. it's kinda hard to accept that a character from Resident Evil, a character that let Gordon Freeman get 40% on him, could put up such a fight against a Nintendo icon like Bowser on this site though. this is one of those cases where we should have believed the x-stats instead of doubting them.
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xyzzy
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 5:19:15 AM | message detail
based on a static Bowser, Leon's at 32.51%, between Dante and Knuckles. Leon, a near-elite? if Ganon 2k5=Bowser 2k5, Leon = Auron? interesting things to think about.
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xyzzy
greatone10 | Posted 10/11/2006 5:20:45 AM | message detail
a character that let Gordon Freeman get 40% on him

That line of thinking led almost half the board to bank on the most illogical upset one can take in this entire contest.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
transience | Posted 10/11/2006 5:25:26 AM | message detail
and yet if you believe his number, Phoenix Wright is near the fodder line. I've thought for a while that Freeman is kind of similar to Master Chief where the fanbase votes for him over anything else, but he struggles to get votes after that.
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xyzzy
Kratos_42 | Posted 10/11/2006 5:27:10 AM | message detail
KOS-MOS > Aeris! Believe it!
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
Kratos_42 | Posted 10/11/2006 5:27:37 AM | message detail
Got it memorized?
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
The_Dealer_7 | Posted 10/11/2006 5:27:55 AM | message detail
No... DO YOU HAVE IT MEMORIZED?

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The line between _______ and _______ shall remain nameless.
The_Dealer_7 | Posted 10/11/2006 5:28:09 AM | message detail
Furthermore, what is the moral of this topic?

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The line between _______ and _______ shall remain nameless.