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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 383

SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/9/2006 10:55:24 PM | message detail
Sub Zero > Master Chief is certainty.

FINISH HIM!

*rips out MC's spine*
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~*Ex~Tha*~
Sometimes it's darkest just before dawn.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:55:53 PM | message detail
As far as round 2 goes, we've got:

Jill vs. Peach
Yoshi vs. Dante
Kirby vs. Luigi

Uh...that's it (no, I don't think Snake/Squall or Sonic/Vincent will be interesting).
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Character Battle V Score - 26/28 points
Current Prediction - Crono vs. Captain Falcon
Redtooth | Posted 10/9/2006 10:56:18 PM | message detail
Is Subby expected to have huge support off the bat? I don't care if MC manages to double by nights end, as long as I get Subby neck and neck or even winning for 2/3 updates.

That, and I don't think Leon/Bowser will be interesting, although the result would be nice to know. Too bad the match has to take place first >_>

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7
Draco1214 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:57:18 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero will keep it somewhat close with MC, then MC takes off with the day vote and never looks back.
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Character Battle V Score - 26/28 points
Current Prediction - Crono vs. Captain Falcon
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 10:58:41 PM | message detail
I'd be shocked if Sub-Zero wasn't leading for a significant amount of time at the beginning. This site -- and the board, especially -- just hates XBox and Master Chief. Even enough to put their brackets aside a lil' in the name of that hatred.

Y'know, you could have a 63 match contest comprised of nothing but random characters in matches with Master Chief and I'd probably find it interesting. MC's just that kind of a character in a contest setting.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/9/2006 11:00:00 PM | message detail
Remember that Halo took the board vote from Castlevania. Hell, that was the only time Halo led.
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Character Battle V Score - 26/28 points
Current Prediction - Crono vs. Captain Falcon
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 11:00:12 PM | message detail
Uh...that's it (no, I don't think Snake/Squall or Sonic/Vincent will be interesting).

The anticipation leading up to that match and the discussion afterward will make those matches well worth putting down for good round 2 match-ups. Same deal with Crono/Bowser.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Janus5000 | Posted 10/9/2006 11:01:02 PM | message detail
Subby and Alucard will keep their matches close during the night, but when the day breaks, so do they.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 11:02:53 PM | message detail
True that Halo took the board vote from CV, but DK ended up taking it from MC...bleh.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 11:36:05 PM | message detail
With Captain Falcon looking almost as bad as Kefka SFF'd by Crono in 2k3, I'm FFIINNAALLLLYY off to bed (damn theatre-forms).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 11:50:47 PM | message detail
I know I'm late, but.... DAMN at Luigi's prediction percentage and Crono's performance. My big upset might actually happen!!

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 11:51:58 PM | message detail
You can have Crono > Mario in the Royale, I think I'll take the much more profitable Crono > Samus for the main bracket!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 11:54:51 PM | message detail
Crono > Mario? That's just as bad as Mega Man > Samus!


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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 11:55:48 PM | message detail
Why hasn't the hyperbole shifted to Ganon > Male Bracket???
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 11:56:45 PM | message detail
It would have happened had Twilight Princess come out. You remember that.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
Incompetence | Posted 10/9/2006 11:57:08 PM | message detail
Wow. Captain Falcon is weak.

Hmm. Any chance CF's day vote is as good as Hamburger Helper's? They do get all of their "strength" from the same series.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wjoaG18BKOc
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 11:58:35 PM | message detail
It would have happened had Twilight Princess come out. You remember that.

And the worst thing is I'm going to have to hear this excuse for both Zelda and Link before this is all over!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kaxon | Posted 10/10/2006 12:48:24 AM | message detail
I seriously wish TP had already come out, just to see Vincent win the match anyway.

whoa, Crono is just flying up here. woo!

Indeed. Yeah, my Oracle pick sucks, but... go Crono!!! This is looking like the nicest result since Mega Man/Yoshi.
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....TCELES B HSUP
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/10/2006 12:57:51 AM | message detail
Crono seems to have a habit of neither impressing nor disappointing me aside from that Master Chief match. Gotta be one of the most boring performers when he's not facing Mario >_>
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 3:38:30 AM | message detail
I dunno, this is more impressive to me than anything he did last year. it's still early though.

I'd be shocked if Sub-Zero wasn't leading for a significant amount of time at the beginning. This site -- and the board, especially -- just hates XBox and Master Chief. Even enough to put their brackets aside a lil' in the name of that hatred.

board vote will give MC probably his biggest percentage of the match, just like Ganondorf. I don't see too many vocal Ganondorf fans around here (a couple loud ones lately, though!) and he did pretty darn good in the opening minutes.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 4:35:46 AM | message detail
heh, Crono, meet the morning vote.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Starion | Posted 10/10/2006 4:41:53 AM | message detail
Yup. He will probably drop into the 74-75% range (maybe even lower). Is that still impressive for Crono?
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Now playing: Castlevania:AOS | Queue: Castlevania:DOS, Okami | Waiting for: FF12, Castlevania:POR
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 4:42:40 AM | message detail
in my mind, yeah. if he falls down below 72%, I'd say it's slightly underperforming. I wouldn't make too much of it though.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/10/2006 4:47:09 AM | message detail
That would be one hell of a vote-swing if that happened!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 4:53:42 AM | message detail
RIKU-FROG II. BELIEVE.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Osfan | Posted 10/10/2006 4:54:32 AM | message detail
I have to say I dont really expect Peach Jill to be that close of a match. I wouldnt expect it to be that much closer than Bowser Leon. Bowser is far more popular than Peach and Leon brought many new fans to the series in correlation to Jill who was a series vet. Just saying i wouldnt expect too much outta that match.
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/10/2006 6:28:56 AM | message detail
It makes Falcon pretty much equal to Ness, which isn't that surprising..
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Crono with 75.50%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/10/2006 6:34:20 AM | message detail
As far as round 2 goes, we've got:

Jill vs. Peach
Yoshi vs. Dante
Kirby vs. Luigi

Uh...that's it (no, I don't think Snake/Squall or Sonic/Vincent will be interesting).


I with Draco here. Yeah Snake, Sonic, & Crono's matches will get their fair share of hype, but unless their opponents give them an actual scare, I'm talking 51/49 or closer here, it just becomes another of those overhyped 'Teh NN is going down!111!!!' matches like Snake/Zelda & Sonic/Tifa.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Tales of the Abyss ships TODAY*
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 6:36:25 AM | message detail
no matter how the match turns out, it's going to be interesting. it's going to give us a good read on Vincent. a good read on Ganondorf. a good read on Bowser. a good read on Squall? well, we'll see. either way I don't think you can have a boring match involving elite characters. it might not be a thriller, but it's definitely going to be worthy of discussion.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
transience | Posted 10/10/2006 6:36:35 AM | message detail
(ps - 21st!)
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/10/2006 6:38:09 AM | message detail
XD ...how did I go so long without noticing that typo!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Tales of the Abyss ships TODAY*
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/10/2006 7:20:13 AM | message detail
Lara > Chun Li.


You heard it first here folks!


KB
Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:27:02 AM | message detail
Heh...no way Crono would drop to 72% with the day vote. It's tougher for blowouts to have big percentage swings. I doubt 74%, for that matter...75% seems within reach.

It makes Falcon pretty much equal to Ness, which isn't that surprising..

That's only on sc2k5's x-stats, which probably underrated Ness. Ness did about as well as Scorpion and Tails did on Auron, so Crono getting about 72% on Ness seems about right. In my opinion, Since C. Falcon was supposed to be working off of boost from rising popularity of SSBM andor Nintendo, it's making C. Falcon himself look pathetic (and Ness does get a support from Earthbound), or it's making Crono look really good.

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longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/10/2006 7:28:05 AM | message detail
Glad to see Crono is whooping some ass. My percentage prediction was only one percent off!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 7:32:00 AM | message detail
Oh, and I was horribly, horribly wrong last night...heh, I failed to realize blowouts won't swing in votes much, and I failed to acknowledge Crono's night vote...it was clear as day he's continue to increase in percent throughout the night. I called Kratos' final percentage accurately before his afterschool vote hit, at least. :x

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/10/2006 7:32:54 AM | message detail
either way I don't think you can have a boring match involving elite characters. it might not be a thriller, but it's definitely going to be worthy of discussion.

I agree.

Crono is doing ok today IMO, not great but not bad either. Falcon is doing about the same as Zidane, and I have no idea who I would pick between Falcon and Zidane. People who has Crono winning shouldn't be worried about that Samus, Snake and Sonic got above 80% on their opponents.
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Supporter of Alucard.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/10/2006 8:04:42 AM | message detail
Crono doing very well for himself here. Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that Earthbound might do a bit more for Ness than we give it credit for.

Preliminary stats based on Falcon's current percentage (22.99%):

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Crono – 39.87%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50%
Solid Snake – 36.97%
Vincent Valentine – 35.58%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Kirby – 34.99%
Luigi – 34.66%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Ganondorf – 33.74%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Zero – 32.09%
Sora – 32.00%
Ryu – 29.98%
Yoshi – 29.01%
The Prince of Persia – 26.80%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
Riku – 25.99%
Kratos – 25.72%
Gordon Freeman – 25.60%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%
Axel – 23.37%
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
KOS-MOS – 21.30%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Kairi – 19.39%
Terra Branford – 18.65%
Ada Wong – 18.64%
Claire Redfield – 18.58%
Captain Falcon – 18.33%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Celes Chere – 17.90%
Lara Croft – 16.75%
Joanna Dark – 16.50%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.61%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
CATS – 14.82%
Amy Rose – 14.73%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Soma Cruz – 13.20%
Cortana – 13.12%
Roll – 10.81%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Jade – 9.00%
Princess Daisy – 7.94%
Alyx Vance – 7.52%
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/10/2006 8:54:29 AM | message detail
Perhaps it's time to acknowledge that Earthbound might do a bit more for Ness than we give it credit for.

Perhaps? I find it hard to think that being one of the most popular snes roms wouldn't make the main character of earthbound considerably stronger. When you look at snes games (especially rpg's) looking at sales alone isn't a good way of measuring its characters popularity.

And I realize you agree that earthbound helps him so that wasn't directed at you, I'm just using your post as a diving board into my rant. >_>
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Samurai7 | Posted 10/10/2006 8:57:40 AM | message detail
I was saying Ness > C. Falcon since the idea of him being in the contest was ever brought up >.>

Of course no one ever remembers anything I say so I'm people will be 'lol ya sure you did'

I don't know how you could think Ness is as strong as he is being a low tier, hardly played, and largly disliked character in melee.
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
Who Cares? | Posted 10/10/2006 9:00:54 AM | message detail
Votals at the halfway mark:

Samus/Nidoran F -- 52372 [11th]
Phoenix/Gordon -- 52030 [17th]
Crono/C. Falcon -- 51813
Jill/Sheena -- 51651 [15th]
Sonic/CATS -- 51089 [21th]

Looks to be headed around the 110k range
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21st) One down, two to go!
*Tales of the Abyss ships TODAY*
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/10/2006 9:05:40 AM | message detail
I love using Ness in SSBM. I'm probably just weird, though.

Come on, Falcon, bring this down a little. I want to be able to say Crono is so screwed to support my sexy pick.

I LOVE The Boss' pic! Woo! Pic advantage over Tifa = confirmed, and that's very hard to do. Nice work, Cjay.

Now, let's see what she does with it. EVADE THE DOUBLING, BOSS, GODAMMIT!
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AC2K6 Score: 27/27 Today:Zero >_
KingBartz | Posted 10/10/2006 9:06:42 AM | message detail
Yikes. Captain Falcon is absolute weaksauce. That's disappointing...
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I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 27/28 Today's pick: Crono
BDawg | Posted 10/10/2006 9:19:37 AM | message detail
Yes, Crono resists aging so well because he's a time traveler. Every year he just warps in from 1995(?) and receives his full strength. Oh and since Link is the hero of time Link>battle royale confirmed.
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Should I start running now?
Starion | Posted 10/10/2006 9:20:07 AM | message detail
I was hoping for an Advent Children Tifa pic there. Would have blended better with The Boss' CGI face pic.
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Now playing: Castlevania:AOS | Queue: Castlevania:DOS, Okami | Waiting for: FF12, Castlevania:POR
Sir Crono | Posted 10/10/2006 9:32:59 AM | message detail
Sir Crono Smith was the Hero of Time long before that poser Link ever claimed to be!
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As you wish.
Sir Crono | Posted 10/10/2006 9:40:44 AM | message detail
Heh, 80% update by Crono. While Falcon is for the most part taking off percentage by now, I doubt he'll avoid the tripling.
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As you wish.
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/10/2006 10:07:45 AM | message detail
When the hell is Crono going to get weak? I honestly believe there are a group of about five people who cheat for Crono in EVERY SINGLE ONE of his matches, giggling frantically all the while. Get a job, you pathetic bastards.

Falcon Punch.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/10/2006 10:16:23 AM | message detail
Sir Crono (Leon?), did you use a constant Lara when you made those stats?
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AC2K6 Score: 27/27 Today:Zero >_
H__RR____H | Posted 10/10/2006 10:18:38 AM | message detail
It makes Falcon pretty much equal to Ness, which isn't that surprising..

...that is not the case at ALL. Ness did better while being SFF'd against Bowser than what CF is doing right now against Crono. Ness-2k4 (the least-SFF'd value we have for him, and he's still behind Auron/Sephiroth AND before any potential help from last year's Nintendo Boost) is still expected to get 25.75% on Crono-2k5. Unless you want to make a case that Crono is going to absolutely tear the roof down this year (moreso than JUST winning the bracket) or that CF can decisively rSFF Ness, no, Ness beats CF and does so comfortably.


Falcon is doing about the same as Zidane, and I have no idea who I would pick between Falcon and Zidane.

Zidane would be your best bet, considering it was a Square/Square match at least as opposed to this being, well, the pure exposing of Captain Falcon.


I don't know how you could think Ness is as strong as he is being a low tier, hardly played, and largly disliked character in melee.

I think that's largely because of how liked he was in SSB -- they demoted him a bit, and people found other characters to play instead. I can still enjoy being Ness from time to time in SSBM, but it's nothing like what he was in SSB.





I wonder if people will now start to say Earthbound really does something for Ness or if Ness really is that much more favored over CF in the SSB series. I can't imagine the general board feeling like both are true, though I think they probably are.
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Damn, most of my dates involve mocking and/or beating up people like you and your bride-to-be, so I really have no advice --Horatio
Haste_2 | Posted 10/10/2006 10:19:53 AM | message detail
Random fact:

In the last hour of Snake/Tanner, Tanner only got 66 votes. That's about 1 vote per minute.

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