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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 383

creativename | Posted 10/9/2006 9:26:37 PM | message detail
Luigi's bracket support was a bit higher than I expected, I thought it would be 65%.

I think Luigi should be the favorite against Kirby. I'd take Luigi over Yoshi now without thinking about it.

On Bowser vs. Leon, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bowser match what Mega Man did last year. Even if he matched Mega Man I'd still expect Crono to beat him.
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transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:27:41 PM | message detail
don't forget the PS2 release of RE4, cn. it's hard to say how much that would do, but it's gotta be worth something.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Janus5000 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:27:51 PM | message detail
We've got a couple of upsets so far. Vincent > Ganondorf, and Zero > Luigi.

Don't forget Ryu > Kratos!!
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creativename | Posted 10/9/2006 9:28:05 PM | message detail
I haven't read this topic or the last one, but I assume Sonic is the favorite over Mega Man now?
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Big Bob | Posted 10/9/2006 9:28:22 PM | message detail
...Damn typo.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:28:29 PM | message detail
Yeah, I can't see Bowser matching Mega Man's performance with RE4 out on the PS2. Though he could still break 60%.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:29:56 PM | message detail
Considering Nintys usual popularity with the casual bracket maker, and the fact that luigi was a two seed, it isn't that surprising that the prediction percentage was that high. I mean casuals have gotten burned just as badly on matches that most of us here considered forgone conclusions. Hell, even in this contest we've already seen a majority of them take kratos over ryu.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:30:01 PM | message detail
Sonic would have to go through Crono to see Mega Man. should that happen, yeah I'd call him the definite favourite.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 9:30:11 PM | message detail
Bowser's projected to get 62.37% right now. I think the possibility of Bowser boosting this year is pretty high, so even with the PS2 version of RE4 out, it might just cancel it out and produce about the same results.

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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:31:39 PM | message detail
So how much does everyone else think Ness would get on Crono today?
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Crono vs. Falcon / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon (26/28)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Bowser / Vote: Bowser
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:32:50 PM | message detail
So... True or false: Falcon will avoid the tripling.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/9/2006 9:33:21 PM | message detail
True

He'll win the day vote.
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Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 9:33:23 PM | message detail
True.

I think Falcon brings this down a couple of points during the day hours.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:34:09 PM | message detail
True.

That said, I think Ness would come up to about 31%, so Ness > CF stays firm for me.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:34:56 PM | message detail
Sonic, the favorite over Mega Man? You mean...Snake, right? =p

If I had to wager a guess...I might curse my Oracle pick, but if I had to guess how Crono's percent will change, he'll end up 4-5% lower than he is now. Captain Falcon gets his fame from SSBM, and SSBM has a monstrous day vote, maybe even rivaling Master Chief or Kingdom Hearts.

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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:37:34 PM | message detail
I'd take ness over as falcon easily as well, and attribute SOME of his strength to earthbound. It's actually one of the more popular downloads on snes rom sites, so once again I think roms might boost him a bit.

Although to be fair, very few people would have ever played earthbound without SSB bringing ness into the mainstream so that people have actually heard of him.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:37:55 PM | message detail
CAUASLS LOVE THE RACING GXAMES TOO
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
creativename | Posted 10/9/2006 9:38:36 PM | message detail
Sonic would have to go through Crono to see Mega Man. should that happen, yeah I'd call him the definite favourite.

Oops, thought they were facing off. I guess it would apply to Snake then.

Can't see Snake as the favorite in that yet though...I'd say it's close to a toss-up right now. Who the favorite will be there will probably depend on how they do the next couple rounds. Should be a hyped up match when the time comes regardless.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Mega Man have the less impressive performances until the match, then still pull out the win.
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BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 9:39:24 PM | message detail
Haha what would be cooler, Earthbound or Chrono Trigger on Wii virtual console?
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:39:36 PM | message detail
Eh.. I still stand by Ness > Falcon too.. Really because of EB. But then the SSBM might prefer Falcon greatly.


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Crono vs. Falcon / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon (26/28)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Bowser / Vote: Bowser
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:41:42 PM | message detail
Both on the Virtual Console...
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:45:23 PM | message detail
I...cursed my Oracle pick, indeed.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:45:43 PM | message detail
I still think Ness has the edge on CF in the SSB/F fanbase, especially for the original SSB...and I've maintained Ness is bigger to EB than CF is to his entire series as well as EB being bigger here than the entire F-Zero series.

Most of that can't be PROVEN right now, but I think today helps this claim and sentiment
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:46:14 PM | message detail
whoa, Crono is just flying up here. woo!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:46:45 PM | message detail
whoa indeed
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CB5 Points: 26/28, Current Oracle placement: 8/163
Now playing: Okami
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:47:21 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:48:20 PM | message detail
Crono is bringing up his percentage hugely right now... If he keeps this up he'll definitely hold on to the tripling, although given his usual day vote I wouldn't count on it.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:49:31 PM | message detail
WHY DON'T YOU JUST MOVE TO JAPAN, YOU ZIT-FACED FREAKS.

Too hot, I'm used to living in my nice, cold country. >_>
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 9:50:08 PM | message detail
This performance right now puts Captain Falcon around 18.5% on BL. That's around Zidane and Carl Johnson -- and below Ness by a good margin.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:52:55 PM | message detail
Falcon increased .05% that update.

WHOAMG COMEBACK!!!!!!!!!!!
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2006 9:55:51 PM | message detail
I'd like to point out that just like Chrono Trigger, Earthbound was an amazingly popular ROM. Even though it didn't perform too impressively back on the SNES, it got pretty decent exposure from emulation, and I'd expect that his ROM fanbase would be somewhat different from his SSB/M fanbase. It definitely gives him an advantage over CF, since GameFAQs hates racing games so much.
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dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:59:59 PM | message detail
I already brought up the rom factor, but it's good that other people hold the same belief of roms being a significant enough factor in the strength of certain snes games/characters. I mean, I'd be almost shocked if the amount of people that have played earthbound on rom wasn't significantly larger then the amount who have played it on an actual snes.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:01:47 PM | message detail
Earthbound isnt that popular a ROM. It aint even in the same galaxy as CT on that account.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/9/2006 10:10:26 PM | message detail
And Crono breaches 77%.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 10:17:43 PM | message detail
Even if Falcon is weaker than Ness (which I'm still not sold on), I'm finding it really hard to imagine Crono decreasing significantly like so many postulated he would.

Sonic's going to have to win that match on his strength, not Mr. DBZ's weakness.
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*kills self*
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 10:20:19 PM | message detail
And really, 81% or so on CATS as opposed to 77% on Falcon (granted, it'll go down once the day hits)...I want Sonic to pull it out, but he's got an uphill road ahead of him.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 10:23:05 PM | message detail
Crono is really impressing me here. you have to have some serious strength to triple something from Nintendo.

not sure if it'll stay that way, but I still didn't expect to see him pushing for 78%.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 10:24:54 PM | message detail
Crono is really impressing me here. you have to have some serious strength to triple something from Nintendo.

Peach > Tifa.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 10:25:49 PM | message detail
Peach breaks 25% on Tifa!

...unless you mean that Peach tripled Daisy, in which case... shaddap.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 10:26:42 PM | message detail
*shaddaps*
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 10:27:43 PM | message detail
Hey, let's remember that Sora tripled Tingle!

...damn you, Tingle.
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*KILLS SELF*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 10:28:24 PM | message detail
DAMMIT STOP MAKING ME LOOK STUPID BY REFERENCING JOKE CHARACTERS

god this bracket sucks sometimes
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/9/2006 10:40:00 PM | message detail
So... we have to wait until Jill/Peach for the next interesting match.... Gah, so long!
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Crono with 75.50%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 10:45:24 PM | message detail
Nah, MC/Subby could hold us over.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Keno316 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:46:50 PM | message detail
Man, I'd be great to see Crono take both the night and day vote here...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 10:49:30 PM | message detail
Bowser/Leon should be interesting, if only to see how they differ from what's expected form them in 2k2.

Alucard/Auron should be a good chance for Auron to validate his strength.

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:51:16 PM | message detail
I don't expect Bowser/Leon or Auron/Alucard to be especially interesting since I'm expecting Bowser and Auron to crush their respective opponents.

MC/Sub-Zero has the potential to be interesting, but I don't think MC will struggle to the point where the match will be interesting to watch.
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Character Battle V Score - 26/28 points
Current Prediction - Crono vs. Captain Falcon
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 10:51:52 PM | message detail
I'm looking forward to Bowser/Leon just to see how it compares to what Crono is projected to get in 2005.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 10:53:21 PM | message detail
Why did I say 2k2? And form?

Gah

At any rate, most of round 2 will be people validating round 1 matches. Round 3 is where all the interesting matches will be taking place.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
rpgapzx | Posted 10/9/2006 10:53:36 PM | message detail
I believe that MC/Sub-Zero is an interesting match. Not a likely upset, but interesting nonetheless.
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SC2K6: 28/28 / Today: Crono / Leaderboard: 36th