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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 383

transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:02:05 PM | message detail
2006 characters, RPGuy. if you care.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/9/2006 9:02:06 PM | message detail
Heh, Luigi cleaned up...and the zero brackets are no more!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Tales of the Abyss ships TODAY*
Janus5000 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:02:27 PM | message detail
!!

TAKE OFF EVERY ZERO.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
rpgapzx | Posted 10/9/2006 9:02:56 PM | message detail
Leaderboard :D
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Poker is living proof that men are the irrational sex.
SC2K6 Score: 28/28 /// Today: Crono /// Leaderboard: 36th
BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 9:03:41 PM | message detail
Clearly Zero>zero. And well once it stabilizes is it safe to say that its as bad as it's gonna be for Falcon? Or will Crono have day vote power?
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Should I start running now?
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:03:48 PM | message detail
Zero killed the zero-brackets.

Irony, yum.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:04:20 PM | message detail
I kinda like seeing no zero brackets make it. it adds to the legend!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:04:20 PM | message detail
Ack! I'll fix it for my records - I have a feeling I'll be posting that quite a bit once the second round of the male bracket starts.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/9/2006 9:04:23 PM | message detail
OMFG now do I ever feel like an idiot for taking Zero when 71% got it right
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:19 PM | message detail
Whoa, whoa, whoa. I had Luigi in my bracket!?! I could have sworn I picked Zero. Wow...talk about lucky. And I only chose Zero for the oracle because I thought I had him in my bracket...
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caps
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:24 PM | message detail
whoa, nice little jump there! go Crono!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:30 PM | message detail
.. Heh, so much for Falcon > Ness.
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Luigi vs. Zero / Bracket: Zero / Vote: Zero (26/27)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon
BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:38 PM | message detail
Also Edouble_is_back. Literally.
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Should I start running now?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:51 PM | message detail
Ouch, a tripling.

Good thing Crono's history shows that it's just his board vote is strong, and the percent goes down quite a bit from the start!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Crono vs. Capt. Falcon - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Falcon (25/28)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 9:05:53 PM | message detail
Ouch for Falcon. Crono certainly doesn't seem to have lost a step.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:06:00 PM | message detail
Heh, had Zero managed to pull off the upset it would have been the 2nd biggest round 1 upset ever, behind only StarCraft/Halo.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:07:34 PM | message detail
Shadow was much closer to pulling off an equally-big overall upset, ya know.....
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Maniacal Llama | Posted 10/9/2006 9:07:39 PM | message detail
Give Zero his usual dominant picture and put the match on a random non-holiday weekday and Zero makes it competitive imo...
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God is all knowing......but can he see why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch?
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:07:52 PM | message detail
I think part of that is bracket voting + Crono being strongest at night. Falcon should theoretically take the day vote from Crono.

..how'd TV do against Crono vs. CJ vs. Ness?
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:08:07 PM | message detail
Where does this put Zero on the all-time impressive losers list?

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 9:09:18 PM | message detail
It's kind of humorous nearly as many people took the Prince as Zero.
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Should I start running now?
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 9:10:20 PM | message detail
It won't be so funny once Kirby throttles Luigi so bad Zero will look worse than The Prince!!!

Believe.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:10:57 PM | message detail
Crono started out at around 75% and then fell to 71%, while Ness started out with around 52-52% and ended at 55%.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Crono vs. Capt. Falcon - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Falcon (25/28)
greatone10 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:11:18 PM | message detail
Wait, people still get Columbus Day off? I didn't even know it was today.
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RIP Eddie Guerrero 1967-2005
Z1mZum made me look like Shadow Hearts in the Guru contest.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:12:31 PM | message detail
Well, if you extrapolate through a bunch of crazy SFF matches, Kirby beats Luigi with 59%...still short of 62%, though. :p

Maybe C. Falcon can avoid the tripling by the end...Crono didn't pick up the pace as much as I expected.

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cyko | Posted 10/9/2006 9:13:03 PM | message detail
well, from the point the match stabilized, Crono lost 5 percentage points against Vercetti, 8 percentage points againstr MC, 4 percentage points against Vincent, 3 percentage points against Megaman and 2 percentage points against freaking Zidane.

Crono does not seem to fare well with the day vote, so i am fairly certain that Captain Falcon will take this down with the morning vote and avoid the tripling.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:14:50 PM | message detail
Crono is fine with the day vote - his board vote is just massive. Mario/Crono last year was evidence of that, I thought. he's not dominant with the day vote or anything, but he's not Frog either.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:16:00 PM | message detail
This should level out at around 75% in the end I think.

I hope, at least. Someone's gotte get DSRage off thet oracle leaderboard!
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CB5 Points: 26/28, Current Oracle placement: 8/163
Now playing: Okami
RadiantRikku | Posted 10/9/2006 9:16:58 PM | message detail
Well, this is just dumb. Falcon should be winning.
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Rikku > Samus!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 9:17:26 PM | message detail
For the record, Ness 2k4 -- his least SFF'd value (he's behind Auron/Sephiroth) -- is still expected to get 25.75% on Crono 2k5. Captain Falcon has some moving to do (which he will) if he's going to make a good case against Ness (which I don't think he will).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:17:38 PM | message detail
This is nothing for Falcon, he'll bring it down to 73% and the Crew point will be mine!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Crono vs. Capt. Falcon - Bracket: Crono - Vote: Falcon (25/28)
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/9/2006 9:18:17 PM | message detail
And someone's gotta stop that Kleenex guy's winning streak!
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Crono with 75.50%
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/9/2006 9:18:21 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
27-----99-------41.4141414
26-----704------63.3522727
25-----2049-----76.2323084
24-----4204-----80.8039962
23-----6172-----80.3953338
22-----6545-----78.5637892
21-----5998-----72.6242081
20-----5156-----70.8688906
19-----3902-----63.1471040
18-----2810-----61.0676157
17-----1930-----59.7409326
16-----1228-----60.0977199
15-----781------60.3072983
14-----408------59.5588235
13-----207------57.0048309
12-----94-------54.2553191
11-----47-------51.0638298
10-----13-------30.7692308
9------15-------33.3333333
8------12-------8.3333333
7------16-------25.0000000
6------26-------11.5384615
5------48-------10.4166667
4------69-------21.7391304
3------42-------38.0952381
2------37-------51.3513514
1------29-------31.0344828
0------5--------100.0000000

Overall prediction percentage: 71.81%

Ouch. The overall prediction percentage was high, but the perfects still took a massive beating. While the -3s broke 80, the perfects barely broke 40. The group that took things the absolute worst were the 0s. All five of them had Luigi winning the match so all of them have no fallen. This may have been the last possible round one upset, but it was enough to prevent any 0s from survivng Round 1.

23 people fell off the Top 50 today. Notenoughspace, Willninho, triviaman, _Phediuk_, KadenceInc, Dunkeroo23, Leebo86, PorkmanDeLardo, Dark115, LeahTsu, BrokenBokken, HoodyNinja, Boys_dont_cry, Chaotrainer, futuresuperstar, Rodri316, JonnyDervish, One_winged_ange, Silverwarp, NsOVeetle, Ultima_X, woowho69 and Zero_Signal620 had Zero over Luigi. The Plan is still in effect! Former #1 Edouble_is_back manages to stay on the top 50 despite getting the match incorrect.
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
Xuxon | Posted 10/9/2006 9:18:26 PM | message detail
So why would you hope for 75%? DSRage has 74.26, which would be better than anyone close to him!
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Take off every sig.
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 9:19:40 PM | message detail
This looks like it'll end under the tripling given the day vote and all. Crono doing good to meet expectations here.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:19:52 PM | message detail
well, you know this, but Ness in 2k5 is probably a bit above any of his previous values. I've been a Ness >= Falcon guy since the nomination rally tournament, but I think he could actually look better than Ness just because he's going against a guy who isn't really universally known. I wouldn't be amazed if more people knew who CF was than Crono.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/9/2006 9:20:31 PM | message detail
So it's looking like either Crono boosted or Falcon is indeed quite a bit weaker than Ness.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
RadiantRikku | Posted 10/9/2006 9:21:21 PM | message detail
The day Crono boosts is the day......a new Chrono game comes out, so no!
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Rikku > Samus!
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:21:29 PM | message detail
So why would you hope for 75%? DSRage has 74.26, which would be better than anyone close to him!

Because I predicted 75% >_>
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CB5 Points: 26/28, Current Oracle placement: 8/163
Now playing: Okami
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:21:51 PM | message detail
oh and just for kicks, Frog lost 10% from this point in his match with Riku. different poll time though.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:22:12 PM | message detail
I wouldn't be amazed if more people knew who CF was than Crono.

I'd be amazed if that weren't the case. I think Captain Falcon has more sales than Crono, and that's only counting the F-Zero series.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Sir Auron | Posted 10/9/2006 9:22:19 PM | message detail
So it's looking like either Crono boosted or Falcon is indeed quite a bit weaker than Ness.

I would immediately assume the latter before I ever assumed the former in this situation.

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"That's a cruel, rotten, disgusting idea -- and I love it!"
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:22:54 PM | message detail
So it's looking like either Crono boosted or Falcon is indeed quite a bit weaker than Ness.

How much would ness be projected to get on Crono anyways? I couldn't imagine it being over 30%, but maybe I'm terribly wrong...
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:23:53 PM | message detail
well I mean on GF, where apparently 99.999% of the CT fans inhabit. if you had never seen CT in action and went by its sales, you'd swear it's no stronger than a midcarder.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:24:02 PM | message detail
All Time Most Popular Polls

01. 158527 - The Legend of Zelda vs Final Fantasy (2006 Series)
02. 157773 - Final Fantasy vs Super Mario Bros. (2006 Series)
03. 147637 - Cloud Strife vs Link (2003 Characters)
04. 137513 - Metal Gear vs Kingdom Hearts (2006 Series)
05. 136154 - Final Fantasy vs Resident Evil (2006 Series)
06. 135562 - Final Fantasy vs Mega Man (2006 Series)
07. 134604 - The Legend of Zelda vs Metroid (2006 Series)
08. 133005 - Mario vs Crono (2003 Characters)
09. 132410 - The Legend of Zelda vs Metal Gear (2006 Series)
10. 130058 - Luigi vs Zero (2006 Characters)
11. 129977 - The Legend of Zelda vs Mega Man X (2006 Series)
12. 129703 - Mario vs Cloud Strife (2002 Characters)
13. 128286 - Kingdom Hearts vs Castlevania (2006 Series)
14. 128006 - Vincent Valentine vs Ganondorf (2006 Characters)
15. 127218 - WarCraft vs Grand Theft Auto (2006 Series)
16. 126178 - Super Smash Bros. vs Sonic the Hedgehog (2006 Series)
17. 126164 - Tifa vs Ivy Valentine (2006 Characters)
18. 125719 - Yoshi vs Riku (2006 Characters)
19. 125259 - Metroid vs Pokemon (2006 Series)
20. 125208 - Final Fantasy vs Diablo (2006 Series)
21. 124443 - Cloud Strife vs Sephiroth (2003 Characters)
22. 124353 - Link vs Cloud Strife (2004 Characters)
23. 124192 - Sephiroth vs Mega Man (2003 Characters)
24. 123919 - Super Mario Bros. vs Super Smash Bros. (2006 Series)
25. 123744 - Sora vs Tingle (2006 Characters)

2002 Characters - 1
2003 Characters - 4
2004 Games - 0
2004 Characters - 1
2005 Villains - 0
2005 Characters - 0
2006 Series - 14
2006 Characters - 5

So, yeah, woo 2006.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/9/2006 9:24:22 PM | message detail
I don't think Ness has ever had a reliable value.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 9:24:25 PM | message detail
Since I'd take Ness over Tommy Vercetti, I say Ness gets at least 30%.
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Luigi vs. Zero / Bracket: Zero / Vote: Zero (26/27)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon
RadiantRikku | Posted 10/9/2006 9:25:15 PM | message detail
XD Sora/Tingle is the 25th most popular poll!
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Rikku > Samus!
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 9:25:59 PM | message detail
well I mean on GF, where apparently 99.999% of the CT fans inhabit. if you had never seen CT in action and went by its sales, you'd swear it's no stronger than a midcarder.

Well considering the popularity of snes roms, and how popular CT is in particular in its pirated form, I wouldn't be surprised if that adds a great deal to its strength.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
Big Bob | Posted 10/9/2006 9:26:27 PM | message detail
You know, you guys were right. Male Bracket > Female Bracket.

We've got a couple of upsets so far. Vincent > Ganondorf, and Zero > Luigi.

Not that that 70% prediction percentage means anything.

NYAH NYAH I PICKED LUIGI.

*gets Falcon Punch'd*
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti