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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 383

Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:47:40 PM | message detail
If Peach loses to Jill or gets thrashed by Tifa i can only imagine the backlash from this argument. Oh well! :-) it was fun but really though i think Peach might suprise alot of people this year but i aint crazy enough to think she would get more than 30 on Luigi. Like i said bowser watch could get interesting and Crono... who the heck knows i hope he does better then expected tommorow anyway until then...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:51:34 PM | message detail
Hey Luigi has exactly what Kirby is expected to get against Zero.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 5:54:26 PM | message detail
Tifa's going to be struggling to get even 55% on Peach, forget 65.
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caps
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 5:57:21 PM | message detail
Yeah, Luigi should end up below what's expected of Zero to get on Kirby...but from there, it's a matter of if Kirby was over-rated any last year (possible, between rSFF/Solid ****/1-seed), if Kirby dropped any since last year (PoP makes you wonder, though PoP is untested), if Zero dropped any (given that Mega Man/Zero/Roll got lower-than-expected seeds and Mega Man didn't show off against Axel...maybe), and if SFF comes into play (I'm not getting into that one again).

Still a lot to consider, and Luigi should be the bracket-favorite in that match. I'm sticking with Kirby in a close one, though that gives PoP a higher value than I would have before the contest.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:59:15 PM | message detail
Higher value for PoP is fine by me. I want him back in 2k7!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 6:00:59 PM | message detail
given that Mega Man/Zero/Roll got lower-than-expected seeds

Remind me who expected Roll to get into the contest.
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As you wish.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 6:02:15 PM | message detail
Question for those who have Luigi > Kirby -- what do you expect Luigi's margin of victory to be? As in, do you expect him to outperform Bowser?

That would seem very...off to me, unless Kirby/Bowser was a one-time fluke and Kirby wouldn't get close to that 48% again...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:03:49 PM | message detail
Luigi outdoes Bowser, proving himself to be a worthy foe for Sonic!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 6:08:05 PM | message detail
Question for those who have Luigi > Kirby -- what do you expect Luigi's margin of victory to be?

55.5/44.5. Bowser/Kirby is a one time anamoly (if you're looking for evidence, your speaking to the wrong guy, this one's off instinct).
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:09:08 PM | message detail
I wasn't sure if Roll would make it or not, but I didn't think she would be an 8-seed. Either way, given how fodderific the female side is (though much of it could have been avoided with Yuffie and some FF8 ladies replacing some of the crap we got), Roll barely making it in the contest doesn't help the case much.

If you choose to dismiss her, that's cool, but there's still Mega Man and Zero getting lower seeds than expected as well.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:10:13 PM | message detail
Seeding means nothing and it has always meant nothing. You of all people should know better than to try to base anything off of something that perhaps 10% of the voters at best participate in.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 6:11:57 PM | message detail
If you choose to dismiss her, that's cool, but there's still Mega Man and Zero getting lower seeds than expected as well.

I don't really think so. Look at Mega Man's prediction percentage on his typical runs to elite 8/final 4/wherever, he gets crap when it comes to casual prediction percentage. Factor in a Sora boost in casual nominations thanks to KH2 and I could see Sora getting more nominations than MM. The only thing that doesn't sit well with me is Crono getting more nominations than MM, but I'm sure that competition was pretty close for that last 1 seed.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
therealmnm | Posted 10/9/2006 6:13:05 PM | message detail
I don't think the seeding means that much. If that's the case, Knuckles and DK didn't even make the contest. Does that mean they are getting weaker? No. Remember who plays the biggest role in nominations anyways... Board 8 concentrates on getting new characters in more than making sure that the contest vets return.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:14:29 PM | message detail
If CJayC set up the bracket NCAA style, Sora would be the bottom 1 seed and Mega Man the top 2 seed, so yeah.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:15:11 PM | message detail
I'm not saying seeding is the #1 thing here -- in fact, as far as the male side, it's not THAT bad of a sign for them -- with only seven male nominations instead of ten and the first next-generation system out, Mega Man would still be a one-seed and Zero would still be a four-seed in a normal bracket. I'm just saying that, when coupled with Axel impressing like he did and Luigi dominating in what was supposed to be "another dead-even 2/7-match", signs are out there. Doesn't mean they're correct, but what we've seen doesn't look so reassuring to Mega Man fans like myself either.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:16:22 PM | message detail
when coupled with Axel impressing like he did and Luigi dominating in what was supposed to be "another dead-even 2/7-match", signs are out there

These things alone are enough. You don't have to throw seeding into it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 6:16:24 PM | message detail
eh, it just seems like people are digging for reasons to say Mega Man is weaker. he might be, but I'll judge that off his performances and not meaningless things like seeding. I mean, Squall only got a 4 seed - should we assume he's weaker than he was last year?
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 6:17:07 PM | message detail
I believe HaRR's like Ulti in that he expects as little as possible from Mega Man & co. so that he's never disappointed. That's the only way I rationalize him taking Mario Kart over Mega Man in the Series Contest.

Well, aside from the Top 100 List, which we all know is infallible.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 6:17:45 PM | message detail
42. Super Mario Kart
9384305897598398753987947954793874897032983290572398. Mega Man 2
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:19:37 PM | message detail
HaRRicH asks, "When you make a contest-bracket, how do you go about deciding which matches should be made? Do you look at previous contests, or do you decide by what simply feels close?"

This year, I sorted out all of the contestants by seeds, so I had four each of each gender. From there, I went through and made a list of every past character battle, and which characters went up against which, and split the previously featured characters as far apart as possible to avoid any re-matches. The remaining characters then got dropped into the bracket where there was space, in a couple of cases to create a few interesting first-and-second round matchups. You guess which ones.


I think this pretty much says it wasn't done NCAA-style, though I would think your suggestion of Sora and Mega Man bein' close in nominations couldn't be too far off either.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 6:22:08 PM | message detail
Only 4 more boring matches until we get back to the female side, wahoo!
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caps
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:22:21 PM | message detail
Nah, I still expect Mega Man to beat Solid Snake, but don't expect the win to be given on a silver platter like 2k4 either. Heh..tranny already covered me on the Top 100 List, too (though MM4 still lands ahead of MM2 -- book it!!!).
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 6:22:55 PM | message detail
Question for those who have Luigi > Kirby -- what do you expect Luigi's margin of victory to be? As in, do you expect him to outperform Bowser?

I would expect Bowser to perform better if that match was held again today. I'll probably be expecting around a 52 - 48 match for Luigi/Kirby with the plumber coming out as the victor.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:23:18 PM | message detail
Mega Man 4? That doesn't even beat out the original!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:24:00 PM | message detail
It does in my heart!
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 6:24:16 PM | message detail
I would expect Bowser to perform better if that match was held again today. I'll probably be expecting around a 52 - 48 match for Luigi/Kirby with the plumber coming out as the victor.

...so, Luigi only wins due to NSMB (as in, he'd lose to ye pink one last year)?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/9/2006 6:24:43 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb533.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb534.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb535.jpg
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 6:25:00 PM | message detail
Rikku/Kairi is the best picture in contest HISTORY!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb533.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb534.jpg
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb535.jpg
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caps
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 6:25:04 PM | message detail
People, people, we all know Mega Man 7 was clearly at the top of the pack.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Yesmar | Posted 10/9/2006 6:25:34 PM | message detail
Pics are up!

I like the set up, but don't really like Tifa Vs. The Boss.

Tifa looks like a monkey (although I've always thought that about the pic) and The Boss looks like a man.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 6:25:40 PM | message detail
...so, Luigi only wins due to NSMB (as in, he'd lose to ye pink one last year)?

You're catching on!

(Unless Kirby was overrated last year, which I don't really believe to be the case, but the performance on the Prince certainly wasn't reassuring me of anything.)

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 6:27:32 PM | message detail
Dammit Yesmar, you beat me to it!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:28:00 PM | message detail
I really like the style this round, though it's a shame Tifa/Boss wasn't better-looking. Still though, I'll be looking forward to the full body-shot of Kirby next round, heh.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Tediz247 | Posted 10/9/2006 6:28:13 PM | message detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb533.jpg

Ada looks hot. Samus is Samus, which is a good thing for me at least.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb534.jpg

Advantage Kairi, though good pictures for both.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/cb5/cb535.jpg

The Boss looks ready to kick ass and take names. Tifa looks like something I'd find outside of a cheap club after a few too many beers.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/9/2006 6:28:26 PM | message detail
Zero is having a good night vote.
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Xbox Live Gamertag: PhoenyX101
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 6:29:07 PM | message detail
face pics, eh? sucks for you, Lara!!

nobody stands out as being the beneficiary of such a round. well, except the fact that Snake can't get screwed unless he gets one of those pictures he got against Zelda.

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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 6:30:20 PM | message detail
by the way, is anyone planning on doing Slow's first round winners/losers? I'd be glad to do it, though it'd help if someone had his format since I liked the way he did it.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 6:30:23 PM | message detail
Hey, even then, he looked like Vincent with the name of Solid Snake.

Squall is so screwed.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 6:31:32 PM | message detail
I like the theme for this round.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/9/2006 6:33:12 PM | message detail
Ada looks totally awesome in her match pic, Rikku/Kairi is good in a photogenic sense, and Tifa/Boss is kind of funky. I dig the background on all three pictures though. CJayC is putting out some good looking stuff so far!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 6:34:36 PM | message detail
Bah, it looks like Ceej is going to stick with the 2k5 format. So much for Snake/MM not being in the sprite round!

I still have total faith in Ariel I mean Snake
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 6:35:02 PM | message detail
Hey, if Kirby gets his awesome face pic from last year, then Luigi is so screwed.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 6:36:06 PM | message detail
I guess this means no Half-Life logo!

..it's weird to think about Freeman in round 2.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 6:36:18 PM | message detail
Oh, and those backgrounds for the pictures are funky...I like Samus/Ada the best.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
Tediz247 | Posted 10/9/2006 6:37:47 PM | message detail
Hopefully Sprite Round will be third round. I'd love for Snake/Mega Man to be in the style of Snake/Sora last year.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Janus5000 | Posted 10/9/2006 6:39:49 PM | message detail
Bleh, must Ceej always use X-2 Rikku? =(

Though the match pics look pretty nice otherwise.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/9/2006 6:41:10 PM | message detail
I dig those backgrounds myself...

Oh, and for the first time in contest history, I'm thinking hard on who I want to vote in a Crono match.....Crono/Bowser is gonna be murder for me, as both characters are among my favorites.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 6:42:04 PM | message detail
Yeah, really, use FFX Rikku. =(

Maybe she'll get FFX Rikku against Samus!
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caps
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 6:42:39 PM | message detail
Do the right thing -- Vote for Bowser!!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 6:42:45 PM | message detail
Poll: Which is more likely, Squall beating Snake, or Snake beating Mega Man?

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