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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 383

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 4:46:41 PM | message detail
Alright I'll admit my Snake/Soma prediction sucked ass. But I have a hard time beliving that CF doesn't dominate Soma far worse than Crono would beat Snake.

Falcon could get 25% on Crono and he would still end up utterly annihilating Soma assuming a static Crono and Snake.

Assuming a static Crono, Falcon getting barely doubled puts him around Rikku's 2k5 level, i.e. 45% on Ryu.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 4:48:22 PM | message detail
Crono with 74.25%. I'll lower that a bit since I assume Falcon's stronger than Ness, so probably around 72%.

Ness 2k5 doesn't factor in any potential boost he has -- and I find CJ = Jak very unlikely, so Ness is very likely underrated. I'd take him in a match against Kefka, at least.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 4:48:50 PM | message detail
Alright, assuming a constant Ness and Crono (neither really has any reason to drop or increase), and considering that Ness is probably Falcon's floor we have...

Crono with 74.25%.


Keep in mind every value we've ever had for Ness has been behind SFF, as have been most of his opponents (the clearest reading we could make is Ness-2k4-through-Scorpion-2k3, then the potential help Nintendo boost may give him.....) so Ness deserves more credit than that.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 4:50:50 PM | message detail
Crono scored 46% or something on Super Mario last year. I really doubt Bowser is going to boost up to Mario levels, though I welcome the idea of it being a debatable match.

Consider the fact that Zero put up 37 on this same Super Mario and is now only doing 8% better on the 4th maybe 5th best Character in the Mario series. Behind Mario, Yoshi, Bowser, and quite possibly Peach. Its not so much a Bowser boost as much as a Nintendo/Casual voter boost. Crono doesn't have KH or even a new game or anything to boost him. We can all agree he goes down with age. I think a combination of the two will seal his fate.
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 4:51:27 PM | message detail
Well, Ness was worth at -least- 22% on BL back in 2K4, and that was before the big popularity explosion of SSBM... C. Falcon may not have as much benefit outside of SSBM as Ness, but he sure is more liked, both for being a better fighter and having a more appealing design. He is among a massive cast of characters in SSBM, but he was one of the original 8(12) characters in SSB, so he should be more recognizable than, say, Marth. I'll be rather surprised if C. Falcon gets tripled.

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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 4:52:11 PM | message detail
and quite possibly Peach

ROFL. You really do have no sanity left. If you just happen to be right, Tifa better watch out!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 4:52:27 PM | message detail
We can all agree he goes down with age.

People have been saying this for the last two or three years.
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As you wish.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 4:53:13 PM | message detail
Behind Mario, Yoshi, Bowser, and quite possibly Peach.

Anyone who believes that Peach would even come close to competing with Luigi loses all their KH brownie points forever.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 4:53:57 PM | message detail
and quite possibly Peach

Luigi would destroy Peach.
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As you wish.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 4:53:59 PM | message detail
I'm fully confident in Sonic>Crono right now, glad I made that last minute (literally) adjustment.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 4:55:02 PM | message detail
I think I've heard Crono weakening because he hasn't had anything new 100 times in the past two or so years. is it possible? yeah. has it happened yet? no, and I don't see why you'd assume that when he's either stayed constant or increased every year since the first contest.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 4:55:05 PM | message detail
We can all agree he goes down with age.

A little thing called emulation disagrees with that statement.

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Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 4:55:24 PM | message detail
People have been saying this for the last two or three years.

Mario Crono over the past 2 or 3 years. Crono wins upset shocker. Crono loses by largest margin in the series...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 4:55:57 PM | message detail
That was more Mario than Crono, my friend.
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As you wish.
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 4:57:42 PM | message detail
more? that was all Mario. our stats assume that Crono stayed constant from 2004 to 2005. I don't necessarily agree with that, but if he dropped it was by a teeny weeny amount.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 4:58:48 PM | message detail
Luigi would destroy Peach.

Ok so maybe the cowardly brother pulls out the SFF hammer on the princess we all love to hate wow the SFF for that match would be funny to watch! The question shouldnt be who gets the most votes but who gets the most anti-votes!

Even so it doesnt really retact from my point either way Luigi is down there...
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
red sox 777 | Posted 10/9/2006 4:59:21 PM | message detail
You know, when people started saying that Crono would drop because of age, his game was younger than Final Fantasy VII is now.
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"........!" ~Magus
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 5:00:08 PM | message detail
I'm fully confident in Sonic>Crono right now, glad I made that last minute (literally) adjustment.

I don't see how you could, seeing as how we haven't even seen Crono in action yet. At least the Snake > Mega Man hypers are going somewhat off of current results and you've done nothing but talk smack about them with every chance you've had (and the two upsets are nearly identical statistically).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:01:15 PM | message detail
Mario>Bowser>Luigi>=Yoshi>>>>>Fawful>>>Peach

Thats exactly how it goes!
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Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:09:16 PM | message detail
I dunno whats with the Peach hatred i mean really. Just because we as a board hate her and her "Im sorry the Princess is in... " bla bla bla doesnt mean she doesnt have fans. I mean have you seen Super Luigi on the DS nope you get a Cube game that makes him look awful. Not to mention Peach is fresh on peoples minds. Plus she has almost more appearances than Luigi in games since you have to play multi to even see him. I mean i dont like nor will i vote for her but hell if id vote Luigi over Zero either. With the casuals in control Peach might very well put up 40 on a boosted Tifa.







Then again we all might just hate her for her piss poor excuse for a ds game and lack of any humor and she might push 30?! :-) I wonder the nmumber of times the above will be quoted lets see if we read the whole post before we choose to post ourselves. ;-)
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Nyah | Posted 10/9/2006 5:09:39 PM | message detail
Would Nintendo's tiers go something like this after today?

Link > Mario > Samus > Bowser > Ganon > Luigi > Zelda > Yoshi ???
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"If truly there is evil in this world it lurks in the hearts of man" -- Edward D. Morrison
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:10:40 PM | message detail
Anyway, Zero's loss is explained by one thing: I have a curse placed upon me for all character battles since I started visiting Board 8...it is always my destiny to miss two matches in Round 1. I only missed Kairi vs. Claire Redfield before today... I guess that means Master Chief is beating Sub-Zero...I'm sorry to all those who thought Sub-Zero had a chance. =p

I also have a curse place upon me for all game contests...I'm always destined to miss three matches in the first round.

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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/9/2006 5:12:11 PM | message detail
I can't wait until Peach destroys Jill and everyone thinks of stupid excuses like "It's a NSMB boost!!"
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caps
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 5:14:09 PM | message detail
Peach is already the heavy favorite in that match...
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:15:13 PM | message detail
Oh she could destroy Jill and I wouldnt even bat an eye. But if she ever faced any of those previously mentioned Mario characters, she'd be SFFed into the ground so much, she might uncover a new oil deposit!
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Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:19:14 PM | message detail
Because apparently Peach has done that much worse than the other Super Mario characters in her one contest match where "Hi I'm Daisy" found new oil deposits in the SFF beatdown of a lifetime.
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 5:20:45 PM | message detail
if you wanna argue that friggin' Peach is worth 35% on BL or something, go right ahead. I know who not to pay attention to!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:21:01 PM | message detail
We are talking about freakin Daisy here! The one character Peach can SFF. lol Peach clone.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 5:25:59 PM | message detail
Hey, hey, HEY...






...Peach can SFF Samus, too.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Who Cares? | Posted 10/9/2006 5:27:04 PM | message detail
o_0 How the heck did you guys fillup that other topic so fast? *Has no intention of reading it*
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 1 day until Tales of the Abyss*
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 5:27:54 PM | message detail
summary for ya:

"WHOA LUIGI'S BEATING LINK"
"NSMB IS THE BIGGEST GAME OF THE YEAR"
"ZERO WOULD LOSE TO A SPECK OF DUST"
"um guys calm down"
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/9/2006 5:30:31 PM | message detail
The only thing we have on Peach is SSFing her freaking clone.

We have very little to see what she's capable of until she goes agianst Jill.
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:31:15 PM | message detail
I bet Samus actually does SFF Peach. First time for everything!
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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:31:45 PM | message detail
You forgot Sonic is so screwed!
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 5:31:56 PM | message detail
hey, Samus outperformed Sephiroth on Ganondorf! don't hate
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:32:13 PM | message detail
If she puts down Jill no problem where do we put her is my question. Better yet she puts up 35+ on a boosted Tifa. That = Thrashing at the hands of Luigi. Im not saying 35 on BL. Im saying that an SFF beatdown at the hands of Luigi is probably a bit of an overstatement, while she would get thrashed by anyone else Mario. Luigi doesnt do well on anything Mario people said he would beat Yoshi and he went down easily. He isnt well liked, neither of them are why is it so important to everyone! Its Luigi and Peach at the bottom of the Mario grid. Why is it so hard to believe Peach could do well against a not so liked Mario character?
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:32:26 PM | message detail
Match XXIX: (1) Crono vs. (8) Captain Falcon

Contest History

Crono


Summer 2002
Defeated Simon Belmont, 76.78% - 23.22%
Defeated Dante Sparda, 66.58% - 33.42%
Defeated Lara Croft, 70.87% - 29.13%
Defeated Solid Snake, 52.93% - 47.07%
Lost to Mario, 49.95% - 50.05%
Ranked: 7th

Summer 2003
Defeated Tom Nook, 85.81% - 14.19%
Defeated Kefka Palazzo, 78.92% - 21.08%
Lost to Mario, 49.95% - 50.05%
Ranked: 6th

Summer 2004
Defeated Conker, 77.99% - 22.01%
Defeated Magus, 69.78% - 30.22%
Defeated Mario, 53.24% - 46.76%
Lost to Link, 37.18% - 62.82%
Ranked: 5th

Summer 2005
Defeated Zidane Tribal, 76.72% - 23.28%
Defeated Tommy Vercetti, 70.85% - 29.15%
Defeated Master Chief, 61.29% - 38.71%
Defeated Vincent Valentine, 55.38% - 44.62%
Defeated Mega Man, 51.35% - 48.65%
Lost to Mario, 46.15% - 53.85%
Ranked: 5th

Captain Falcon

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Crono is from Chrono Trigger. Crono is a member of the Noble 9 and out of the four male members he is the favorite to take it, but from their first round matches Snake, Mega Man and Sonic aren’t going to just give him the title. As you can see Crono has had a life long battle against Mario and the only time he’ll get to do that is if he wins the male side. Captain Falcon is from the F-Zero series, but he is more known from the Super Smash Bros. series. Falcon was another board rally character and too bad he got such a bad place because he could’ve done some damage.

Crono, being the favorite to take the male side won’t have a problem with this match; SSBM can only do so much. The only question is where would Falcon rank and I think most people would agree that he would be somewhere around Ness’ strength. In my opinion I think Falcon would be stronger than Ness. First of all in SSBM Falcon is probably more useable than Ness. Even if the average SSBM doesn’t use them the person would at least try to use all the characters once and I, like many that I know find Falcon a much easier character to use in the game. SSB on the other hand Ness is considered to be one of the best characters in the game and will probably gain some ground against Falcon, but on this site SSBM is probably widely more played and liked than SSB.

Even though they get most of their strength from the SSB series you can’t just ignore their games that they are actually in. In a direct match I would take Earthound over any of the F-Zero games, but if the entire series were to go up against Earthbound they would easily be the victor. The F-Zero series has been on all of the main Nintendo consoles since SNES while Earthbound is more of a cult game on the SNES.

Even if Falcon is stronger than Ness that still won’t matter since he is expected to just fail triple Ness. If this was a regular bracket and Falcon was given a better position I think he would have been able to win a match, but because he isn’t this will probably his only contest unless board 8 decides to rally him again.

charmande6000’s Bracket: Crono over Captain Falcon

charmander6000’s Prediction: Crono wins, 72.72% - 27.28%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 5:33:06 PM | message detail
35% on Tifa would be better than Luigi, huh?
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:34:09 PM | message detail
Yeah, Luigi definitely aint liked. Thats why Zero is beating the cra-o wate!
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:35:24 PM | message detail
I said Peach doesnt get SFF'd into the ground by the cowardly plumber not that Peach beats Luigi in the upset of the year. I argue Luigi sucks so much that he cant SFF anything into the ground besides Waluigi. :-P
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Osfan | Posted 10/9/2006 5:37:27 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: 50% of Luigi's votes came from people who dont know who Zero is.
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 5:37:51 PM | message detail
Luigi sucks? Get off my internet, sir.
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As you wish.
Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted 10/9/2006 5:38:42 PM | message detail
Freaking Squall. Its all his Fault Luigi is so damn disliked bracket wise. /Hatred Rant
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"I have no fear of losing my life - if I have to save a koala or a crocodile or a kangaroo or a snake, mate, I will save it. " -Steve Irwin
Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 5:38:46 PM | message detail
Fact or Fiction: 50% of Luigi's votes came from people who dont know who Zero is.

Considering Zero is more than capable of winning matches and winning them handily, that would have to be fiction.

I don't know why I'm even bothering to respond to this though.
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As you wish.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:39:56 PM | message detail
Fiction I'd say. Tons of people have play the MM X and Zero series on Nintendo systems. Zero aint a nobody from some obscure Xbox/PC game. People know who he is.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 5:41:46 PM | message detail
No way 50% of GameFAQs doesn't know who Zero is. EVERYONE knows who Scorpion is and Zero still smashed him. Luigi has an edge on more default votes perhaps, but it isn't goig to matter in a match like this. The Green Man was stronger, plain and simple.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:42:20 PM | message detail
I bet we have something like 65% of the people getting the match right, but we lose over half the perfects.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:43:24 PM | message detail
What charmander said.

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Sir Crono | Posted 10/9/2006 5:43:27 PM | message detail
It wouldn't surprise me. A heavy chunk of the perfects should be B8ers.
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As you wish.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:43:37 PM | message detail
^Definitely possible charmander.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
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