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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382

trannyscience | Posted 10/9/2006 1:39:45 PM | message detail
some things never change and Luigi being a crazy vote drawer is one of them.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 1:43:34 PM | message detail
Yeah, the amount of people utterly shocked by this match is surprising. It's not like Zero was an overwhelming favorite. Sure, Luigi's margin of victory is a little astounding, but the idea of him winning was never as farfetched to me as some made it sound.

Yeah, I'm slightly shocked Luigi is winning, but the margin is what's really blowing my mind.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 1:46:12 PM | message detail
Couple basic points I want to hit on from what I've caught up on reading.

1. Zero declined last year, while MM remained constant. If Zero continues his decline, why should MM suddenly decide to be linked at the hip with him? A match against a complete unknown? Yeah, I'll pass. Another thing is Zero isn't even a part of the original MM series, he was brought in much later, there's plenty of reasons for MM/Zero to have different fanbases, sure they'll have overlap, but the difference between them, and duos like Link/Ganon, & Bowser/Mario are there. I'll wait until MM's match with Ryu (lol no solid read on him last year), and then Sora (lol KH2 boost, no solid read on him), and then we'll have to wait for his match with Snake before I draw any conclusions on how he does, because there are far too many question marks surrounding MM's opponents. And that's assuming Snake handles Dante!

2. The SSB/M argument. Yoshi is trash, utter, and complete trash in the SSB/M games. I have every reason to believe Luigi > Yoshi indirectly, yet Yoshi manages to rSFF Luigi, and win the match. That's because the Mario fanbase prefers him to Luigi, and it has nothing to do with SSB/M.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 1:48:23 PM | message detail
whereas Kirby looked really lackluster against a low midcarder (I'm not considering him even 70% as strong as Kratos)

lol u lol u lol u

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mmm feel the vibration baby
xp1337 | Posted 10/9/2006 1:50:41 PM | message detail
Yoshi is trash, utter, and complete trash in the SSB/M games.

You take that back!
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xp1337: Don't you wish there was a spell-checker that told you when you a word out?
SC2k6 (025/027) Luigi v Zero
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 1:51:10 PM | message detail
Oh please, Yoshi sucks, everyone knows it.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 1:57:22 PM | message detail
but to deny that it helps Bowser at all is pretty much silly.

How much do you really think Bowser got helped by SSBM? We're talking about the most iconic villain in all of gaming that everyone knows in some shape or form. Bowser did not gain fans from SSBM nor did people love playing as him seeing as how he's a joke in the game.

I agree wholeheartedly about characters like Marth, Captain Falcon, and Ness being helped substantially by SSBM. But for characters like Mario and Bowser? Please. It's a non-factor.
Big Bob | Posted 10/9/2006 1:57:36 PM | message detail
The Prince just may be rather strong. He did have three games released across all platforms. It's just that they were all released right before Christmas, and people forgot about him when nominating time came during the summer.
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 2:00:02 PM | message detail
good god, you guys are making it sound like Zero was supposed to win with 65% here or that 0% of the board took Luigi. it's a 51/49 match through last year's stats and Zero didn't look good last year. there is no comparison to Magus / Knuckles here.

Indeed.

I'm pretty surprised at all the commotion over this loss. Luigi certainly had reason to boost this year and there was nothing suspect about his performance last year. If anything, this should just do away with the silly theory that Mario SFFed Zero. You can add in some Zero decline, but the reluctance here to accept that Luigi could have boosted from an absolutely monstrous game -- one of the biggest games of the year easily -- on the hottest system is pretty crazy.

I mean, hey, some us here actually called for this to happen, albeit not by the margin present!!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 2:02:26 PM | message detail
I don't understand how you can say that Bowser is unaffected by SSBM, the biggest Mario spinoff game, and then go and say Luigi is going to boost from increased DS ownership of NSMB and the like. It's completely contradictory, it's not even funny.

And I just realized a very disturbing thought. If we don't have this female crap, Luigi is potentially a one seed.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Big Bob | Posted 10/9/2006 2:03:39 PM | message detail
...Good GOD, you're right!
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 2:04:39 PM | message detail
By the way, it's totally possible to realize a disturbing thought.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
PartOfYourWorld | Posted 10/9/2006 2:06:20 PM | message detail
It's fair to call this one of the three or four most debated matches of the first round (right behind Vincent/Ganon and Kairi/Claire, and in contention with Boss/Celes).
Cecil XIX | Posted 10/9/2006 2:10:43 PM | message detail
Really? I didn't notice anyone debating it until the day before it started.
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Wow, an intelligent criticism of Zeta. Never thought I'd see the day. - AmuroNT1
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 2:11:24 PM | message detail
I don't understand how you can say that Bowser is unaffected by SSBM, the biggest Mario spinoff game, and then go and say Luigi is going to boost from increased DS ownership of NSMB and the like. It's completely contradictory, it's not even funny.

...Uh, no.

First off, SSBM is not a Mario spinoff game. Secondly, Bowser being "unaffected" would deal more with his role in the game along with how popular and exposed he already is. There is not a part of Bowser's strength that comes from SSBM. If he was affected, it was because there was an increase of Nintendo fans coming to the site that enjoyed Bowser, not because how awesome (ahem) he was in the game. Bowser has no part of his strength that is SSBM related; it would be from something entirely different -- SSBM resulting in Nintendo fans coming here. I'm arguing that these characters, Bowser specifically, do not have parts of their strength that come directly from SSBM.

Similarly, there is not going to be a segment of Luigi's strength that comes solely from NSMB. I'm expecting both Luigi, Bowser, and Mario to all benefit from NSMB releasing. It is the highest selling game of the year and was loved by tons of people. This is apparently not going to do much for Luigi? I would love to hear an explanation on that one.

It would be crazy to think that Mario characters aren't going to boost from that. The only way they can stand a chance to boost now is because of the games. If Mario is getting great games constantly, he's going to boost. It has nothing to do with his role or character in the game because that was cemented a long, long time ago. A big new Mario game releasing? That's all Luigi or Bowser or Mario needs for a boost.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 2:14:00 PM | message detail

And I just realized a very disturbing thought. If we don't have this female crap, Luigi is potentially a one seed.


Nothing disturbing about that!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 2:17:47 PM | message detail
Nothing disturbing about that!

Actually, that's very disturbing. Kirby, Sora, Dante, even Chief are ok for 1 seeds. But Luigi? I think I'd be physically sick.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 2:19:24 PM | message detail
Luigi being stronger than all those guys gives him the right to claim the #1 seed ahead of them!!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 2:21:28 PM | message detail
Kirby and Sora are arguable, Chief would choke, but Dante!?

Ho Ho, Dante would finish off Luigi quicker than he can say "Let's rock!"
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 2:22:40 PM | message detail
There's no proof that Mega Man didn't decrease last year, and in all probability I think that he did, noticably. The reason that it doesn't appear that way is because Mega Man 2k4 is behind Link/Mega SFF.

Tidus appeared much stronger in 2k5 than he looked in 2k4. Same for Snake, and I'm not thinking he dipped *that* much in 2004 looking at his 2k3 value. And Knuckles boosting a bit in 2k4 (y'know, like Sonic) makes a lot more sense rather than him getting some absolutely gargantuan boost in 2k5.

They certainly don't have to decrease proportionally, and there's always been the possibility of rSFF floated around to explain it from the beginning, but I think MM and Zero both dropped in 2k5. Whether that happens again in 2k6 is up for debate, but whatever. <.<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 2:24:39 PM | message detail
Oh, and the implication here is that Mega Man boosted in 2k4, most likely due to MMAC. Congrats HM, you were right all along! (sort of)
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Commit it to memory.
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 2:25:01 PM | message detail
Tanner's underrated!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 2:25:45 PM | message detail
TANNER > MR. DRILLER CONFIRMED
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
heroic tranny | Posted 10/9/2006 2:26:47 PM | message detail
so is Frog and Master Chief!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 2:29:48 PM | message detail
I have a difficult time seeing characters like Mario boosting from every new game...I don't think anyone's opinion of Mario will change with a game like NSMB, unless we get another Super Mario 64. Of course, Nintendo characters did boost as of late. But, considering every one of them has boosted at some point, I think it's safe to say that the voters are becoming more biased toward Nintendo as time goes by, and it's a bigger source of change than any games coming out.

And I just realized a very disturbing thought. If we don't have this female crap, Luigi is potentially a one seed.

Disturbing? More like awesome! With Mario missing in the main bracket, it should be no surprise.

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Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 2:31:54 PM | message detail
I think it's safe to say that the voters are becoming more biased toward Nintendo as time goes by, and it's a bigger source of change than any games coming out.

That's the whole point. Games like NSMB don't actually make people say "Oh wow, I like Mario a lot more now." It makes them say "Hey, I'm gonna go to this site that I never really used to go to a lot, gamefaqs.com."
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 2:31:58 PM | message detail
I have a difficult time seeing characters like Mario boosting from every new game...I don't think anyone's opinion of Mario will change with a game like NSMB, unless we get another Super Mario 64.

It's not just another Mario game. NSMB has been a massive game so far -- tons of positive reviews, tons of love, tons of sales. I think we can expect a similar boost to come along once Super Mario Galaxy comes out in early 2007. A minor Mario game probably isn't going to amount to much of anything, but with a game like NSMB or SMG, I think you're going to see plenty of characters boosting. The opinion of Mario the character is directly linked to how well his games are doing.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 2:37:36 PM | message detail
Mario had Super Mario Sunshine under his belt, and he still only managed 37% on Link, and he didn't dip in popularity when he had no recent games. Why should NSMB be any different? By your logic, you might as well say that Mario will only go up in popularity by a new game, but never go down...

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 2:38:21 PM | message detail
When I mean "no recent games", I'm talking about Mario in 2K3 or 2K4, I might add.

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therealmnm | Posted 10/9/2006 2:38:48 PM | message detail
I've said numerous times that Nintendo characters benefit from games bringing fans to the site more from said games making people like them more. It was one of the reasons why I said that I didn't worry at all about Cloud beating Link, even though Link hadn't had any actual releases. But people in this topic thought it was ludicrous that a game without Link in it could actually help him.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 2:41:44 PM | message detail
Sorry, bad writing there.

"By your logic, you might as well say that Mario will only go up in popularity by a new game, but will never go down in the years that he had no games."

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 2:42:52 PM | message detail
I've said numerous times that Nintendo characters benefit from games bringing fans to the site more from said games making people like them more. It was one of the reasons why I said that I didn't worry at all about Cloud beating Link, even though Link hadn't had any actual releases. But people in this topic thought it was ludicrous that a game without Link in it could actually help him.

Which is why you see all those people with Cloud > Link!

Oh, wait -- IT'S JUST ME. -_-
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/9/2006 2:43:43 PM | message detail
Uhh...There were plenty of things that pointed to Magus being overrated. I didn't pick Squall to beat him purely out of fanboyism.

*signs*


KB
Gaddswell | Posted 10/9/2006 2:54:41 PM | message detail
As much as I'd love to see Luigi as a 1 seed, I think that out of the current male 2 seeds, he would be the only one to remain a two seed. We know Samus is going to retain her 1 seed and Mega Man would get his own division. Dante and Master Chief have had one seeds before, so the likelihood of them getting 1 seeds again is better than Luigi getting one.

Also, does anyone else get the feeling that rSFF seems to be much more accepted now that we've had this match? It's come up a lot in a lot of people's arguments.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 3:01:45 PM | message detail
In this match? Uh... no. I don't think this is rSFF at all. I still welcome rSFF with open arms though, unless you're talking about Yoshi/Luigi, in which case many people have been on that for a while now.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 3:04:36 PM | message detail
But Luigi? I think I'd be physically sick.

I'd be physically sick from awesomeness!

Luigi > Ganondorf this year! Book it!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 3:07:13 PM | message detail
Preliminary stats based on the current percentage (Luigi has 54.57%):

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50%
Solid Snake – 36.97%
Vincent Valentine – 35.58%
Luigi – 35.32%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Kirby – 34.99%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Ganondorf – 33.74%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Zero – 32.09%
Sora – 32.00%
Ryu – 29.98%
Yoshi – 29.01%
The Prince of Persia – 26.80%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
Riku – 25.99%
Kratos – 25.72%
Gordon Freeman – 25.60%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%
Axel – 23.37%
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
KOS-MOS – 21.30%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Kairi – 19.39%
Terra Branford – 18.65%
Ada Wong – 18.64%
Claire Redfield – 18.58%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Celes Chere – 17.90%
Lara Croft – 16.75%
Joanna Dark – 16.50%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.61%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
CATS – 14.82%
Amy Rose – 14.73%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Soma Cruz – 13.20%
Cortana – 13.12%
Roll – 10.81%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Jade – 9.00%
Princess Daisy – 7.94%
Alyx Vance – 7.52%
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:08:43 PM | message detail
YES!

Luigi>Squall, revenge for that awful result.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Gaddswell | Posted 10/9/2006 3:08:45 PM | message detail
I wasn't saying that this match is rSFF. I was saying that since Luigi has proven that he's stronger now, people are starting to believe rSFF to explain Yoshi > Luigi. Before, there was a ton of people who don't believe in rSFF.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 3:10:35 PM | message detail
Nah, Squall will still win since Luigi is heavily susceptible to rSFF!!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/9/2006 3:10:47 PM | message detail
So how much do you guys want Crono to get to be considered the favourite to win the male bracket and over Samus?

My opinion

Win the male bracket: 76%

Defeat Samus: 80%
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Supporter of Alucard.
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/9/2006 3:11:16 PM | message detail
Why is no one willing to accept the possibility that Zero dropped in strength from last year and Mario DIDN'T SFF him?

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Can't think of a good sig.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:12:41 PM | message detail
I think Crono barely doubles Falcon myself. Then again I have MM>Sonic>Crono, so maybe I'm just crazy, then again I pretty much predicted this match with almost the exact percentage it currently has (Please knock it down the .1% I need for a perfect pick Zero) in my analysis topic, so I can't be that stupid.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:12:50 PM | message detail
Um, a bunch of people have mentioned that possibility. It's just by no means the only one.
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Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:14:01 PM | message detail
Er, .01 not .1, as of the match being 54.57 and my pick being 54.56.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:14:38 PM | message detail
I pretty much predicted this match with almost the exact percentage it currently has (Please knock it down the .1% I need for a perfect pick Zero) in my analysis topic, so I can't be that stupid.

Don't fall into the trap that HM fell into on MM/Tidus. It never ends well.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:15:09 PM | message detail
I wasn't saying that this match is rSFF. I was saying that since Luigi has proven that he's stronger now, people are starting to believe rSFF to explain Yoshi > Luigi. Before, there was a ton of people who don't believe in rSFF.

Starting to believe? Eh... I don't know, I've been a big supporter of it for a long time now (Hence Kirby > Luigi), and I know there were other people with me there too, so it's not like no one has thought that before. I don't know why everyone keeps acting like Zero > Luigi was the lock of the century that no one saw coming as an upset.

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mmm feel the vibration baby
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:15:26 PM | message detail
Why is no one willing to accept the possibility that Zero dropped in strength from last year and Mario DIDN'T SFF him?

Seems to be the opposite to me. Too many people using this to somehow inexplicably link Zero and MM and seeing a Zero drop justifying their picks of Snake>MM or some such ridiculousness, as opposed to thinking Luigi just might have increased based on him being in the biggest game of the year so far.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:16:43 PM | message detail
I think Crono barely doubles Falcon myself. Then again I have MM>Sonic>Crono, so maybe I'm just crazy, then again I pretty much predicted this match with almost the exact percentage it currently has (Please knock it down the .1% I need for a perfect pick Zero) in my analysis topic, so I can't be that stupid.

You said PoP isn't even 70% of Kratos' strength, then called him a midcarder. You were saying?

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:16:55 PM | message detail
*biggest game of the year EXCEPT KH2.

I almost sounded real dumb there.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!