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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382

Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:03:19 PM | message detail
Umm..why is that a bad thing to do? Zero is MM's "side higher-tier character", which most NNers have (Ganondorf for Link, Vincent/Tifa/Aeris for Cloud and Sephy, Bowser for Mario, Zero for MM, Shadow/Knuckles for Sonic) - it stands to reason that a Zero decrease would have some bearing on MM.

The only difference there is that Link and Mario have already SFFed their "side higher-tier character" into the ground, and I'm betting Sonic and Cloud would do the same to theirs as well. Mega Man/Zero was a 56-44 match, which leads me to believe they have different fanbases, and therefore can't be linked like that.
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Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 12:03:52 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Kirby still acts like a Nintendo character. Which is good enough for the point I was making.

And if you put Link in a "who's your favorite Mario character" poll, I bet he wins. <_<
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 12:06:05 PM | message detail
Do you think Mario or Bowser get nothing from SSB/M? Considering SSBM is the #6/#7 game on GameFAQs and SSB is the fourth/third biggest series/Nintendo series on GameFAQs, not to mention SSBB very well could be the most anticipated game right now, that it does nothing for them?

I'm not trying to act like it does all sorts of good for them on top of what they already have, but it HAS to do something -- we saw SSB outdo Street Fighter with ease here, yet people seem to talk like people can't support characters they like more in SSB while we still occasionally get into how Ken or Chun-Li or M. Bison or Akuma should be ranked while knowing Ryu is obviously #1 in those ranks. People DO have their favorites in SSB/M, and though they may be known elsewhere from their own series first, I think it's nothing but stupid if people don't think people can vote based on that series instead of their original series.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 12:06:12 PM | message detail
...Didn't Zero rSFF MM? Isn't that where the whole theory came from? >_> I mean, Ganon has very little character (aside from WW), same with Bowser. Shadow is the bastard child of the Sonic universe, and I have no idea what would happen in Cloud/Vince. But from what I've heard about MM, isn't Zero a prize badass? I mean, it definitely accounts for today if he got rSFF (even though I know that was a few yuears ago now, it still shows us a lot).
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:08:56 PM | message detail
...Didn't Zero rSFF MM?

No, that match went pretty much as it was supposed to. People just assumed Zero would get SFFed, and therefore were surprised when he didn't.
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Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 12:10:25 PM | message detail
Hmm. So how much would you say Zero/MM are correlated, if at all?
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/9/2006 12:13:51 PM | message detail
Do you think Mario or Bowser get nothing from SSB/M? Considering SSBM is the #6/#7 game on GameFAQs and SSB is the fourth/third biggest series/Nintendo series on GameFAQs, not to mention SSBB very well could be the most anticipated game right now, that it does nothing for them?

Why in the world would Bowser get something from SSBM? He is horrible in the game. And it's not like he needs any type of exposure, what with being the most iconic villain in gaming.

You tend argue SSBM in almost every possible match between Nintendo characters like it has this large focus -- it doesn't. People loved these characters before SSB was even thought to exist. When they go to vote for Mario or Bowser over some other Nintendo character, they likely to do thanks to the Mario games. People love SSBM, sure, but that doesn't mean it's their favorite game/series or even one of the reasons they like these characters. People had favorite characters from Nintendo long before SSB came along.

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Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:16:08 PM | message detail
Not much. There probably is a small overlap, but nothing where I would consider them linked (like saying since Zero dropped, MM has also dropped)

And I would say that Mario characters wouldn't boost as much from SSB than non-Mario characters, as Mario characters have tons of exposure outside of SSB, whereas characters like Kirby, Ness, and even Samus, benefit more from it.
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Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 12:17:04 PM | message detail
Personally, the only characters I think got help from SSB and SSBM were those that were relatively obscure beforehand. Like Ness. And all of Captain Falcon's strength will be from SSB. The only mainstream one I think really got help from SSB is Samus, and that's because she actually wasn't mainstream to anyone that was... well, my age, when SSB came out.
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 12:17:08 PM | message detail
Yeah, but Kirby still acts like a Nintendo character. Which is good enough for the point I was making.

Yoshi was badly owned by Mega Man, though, and even Zelda resisted the SFF against Mega Man... =p

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 12:17:32 PM | message detail
Not much. There probably is a small overlap, but nothing where I would consider them linked (like saying since Zero dropped, MM has also dropped)


Ah. I think we can agree to disagree, then.
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BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 12:19:50 PM | message detail
If you look at the series contests it seems Kirby is pretty low on the Nintendo totem poll. So most of his strength must be coming from Smash Bros. And yet he is far higher than other SSB leeches like Ness. Gah nothing makes sense I just want Kirby to be a midcarder so please Luigi, resist the urge to choke and follow this up with another resounding victory.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:22:35 PM | message detail
Ah. I think we can agree to disagree, then.

I guess. I mean, Kratos (ToS) is at 21% on BL, and he's the fan-favorite from ToS. It isn't crazy to think that Axel, a fan-favorite from a much bigger game (KH2) and another game to boot (CoM), would be at around 24%.
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Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 12:23:17 PM | message detail
Well, Kirby seems to draw more strength from his character design than his games. Mostly because his games suck.
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/9/2006 12:24:18 PM | message detail
Kirby Super Star was pretty awesome...but I would agree for most of the other Kirby games.

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 12:25:42 PM | message detail
You tend argue SSBM in almost every possible match between Nintendo characters like it has this large focus -- it doesn't. People loved these characters before SSB was even thought to exist. When they go to vote for Mario or Bowser over some other Nintendo character, they likely to do thanks to the Mario games. People love SSBM, sure, but that doesn't mean it's their favorite game/series or even one of the reasons they like these characters. People had favorite characters from Nintendo long before SSB came along.

1. It usually doesn't have a big focus, either -- we don't see many Nintendo matches where both are in SSB and one is generally well-preferred over the other, win or lose...so I usually don't have to. I've been vocal about it lately because I think there's reason to be vocal about it lately -- before Kirby/Bowser, why would one wanna worry about it?

2. Don't act like people haven't changed their minds on a character before -- whether you have in real life or not, GameFAQs has certainly shown it happens.

3. That's why they may vote for Mario or Bowser, but not necessarily the same can be said for Kirby...see what I'm saying? It doesn't mean it's a big huge factor, but 1%-4% is plausible depending on the characters.

4. ...SSBM is obviously a favorite of many -- it's practically THE game of this generation as far as this site is concerned, it got #6 in the Top 100 List, it got #7 in the Game Contest, it was only behind LoZ/FF/SMB in the Series Contest, and SSBB wouldn't be NEARLY so anticipated without it. Just because people may have their favorites before the game doesn't mean they can't like them more or less after playing it, or like other characters more or less after it as well. I don't see how this is deniable.
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Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:27:09 PM | message detail
Kirby games aren't that unpopular, at least compared to other series of SSB characters. SS and CC where pretty well-recieved, and Crystal Shards was pretty good too!

Besides, Kirby is awesome by himself. People love the powers, yo.
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Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)
HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 12:29:33 PM | message detail
Oh, and SSBM was leading in points in the BOP for the Top 100 List as well, for the section about who we voted for.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
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Kratos_42 | Posted 10/9/2006 12:32:14 PM | message detail
Am I the only one who thinks Luigi is going to SFF Kirby VERY badly, or the other way around?
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MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/9/2006 12:33:11 PM | message detail
If Bowser couldn't SFF Kirby, why would Luigi?
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 12:35:16 PM | message detail
The last couple of Kirby games on the GBA were million sellers, something I believe Kirby didnt have prior. And Canvas Curse is consider THE game that shows that the DS stylus isnt a gimmick. Kirby has gotten tons more exposure recently then he has ever had. I mean, freakin Kirby's Air Ride was a million seller. It isnt just SSB though SSB maybe the reason Kirby sells so well now. SSB gave him the exposure he needed to establish a big fanbase and become a force, both contest wise and in sales, and he has run with it.
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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 12:35:48 PM | message detail
I can't see Luigi SFF'ing Kirby badly since Bowser > Luigi and I feel like Bowser was rSFF'd a lil' bit, but I can't see Kirby SFF'ing Luigi badly since Kirby and Luigi are probably on-par in SSB/M and SMB >>> Kirby series-wise. I expect the match to stay close unless yesterday was a sign that Kirby's dropped alot...and I'm not buying into that until the contest is over and see it for myself.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
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BDawg | Posted 10/9/2006 12:37:10 PM | message detail
I can't help but think this last divison would've been more interesting if you inserted Knuckles virtually anywhere. Well maybe not Crono/Knuckles. Oh what the heck I'm sure someone would bite.
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MasterMoltar | Posted 10/9/2006 12:39:40 PM | message detail
Snap, I had forgotten about Air Ride. I hated the controls at first, but it was pretty fun!
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TehMissingLink | Posted 10/9/2006 12:43:15 PM | message detail
1. It usually doesn't have a big focus, either -- we don't see many Nintendo matches where both are in SSB and one is generally well-preferred over the other, win or lose...so I usually don't have to. I've been vocal about it lately because I think there's reason to be vocal about it lately -- before Kirby/Bowser, why would one wanna worry about it?

I do not see much reason at all to be worrying about it. It, for the most part, is a complete non-factor in the vast majority of the matches -- and it'll almost never be the thing that changes a result. Trying to bring up SSBM as some sort of factor in that match is just an attempt to try to explain a result that may or may not need explaining. We are still not certain the validity of those results, even with the performance Kirby put up against the Prince. And if Luigi beats Kirby, I'm much more willing to say it was thanks to Luigi boosting in NSMB and any SFF going Luigi's way thanks to be in Mario before I would place blame on SSBM.

2. Don't act like people haven't changed their minds on a character before -- whether you have in real life or not, GameFAQs has certainly shown it happens.

I have a feeling you don't know who you're arguing with considering the joke you could have made about "changing their minds." =p

Just because people may have their favorites before the game doesn't mean they can't like them more or less after playing it, or like other characters more or less after it as well. I don't see how this is deniable.

Liking them more or less as a result isn't going to necessarily be the deciding factor when it comes to two characters in SSBM. I have a hard time believing that SSBM is ever going to be enough of a tiebreaker to give one character an advantage over another, especially incredibly well known characters like Mario and Bowser. I, for one, never think about SSBM when I go to vote in these things.

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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/9/2006 12:48:03 PM | message detail
Well, a fact is that I'm soon to go from one of the 99 greatest brackets to a lost cause (I put Zero in the Swett Sixteen). I wholeheartidly SUPPORT Luigi from now on.

Part of the reason why I put Crono over Samus is because big wins give big momentum to certain characters, making their strength look much greater than it actually is (so for the second year in a row, Samus will lose to the weaker character).

Momentum being factored into the upcoming Kirby/Luigi is what really could turn it Luigi's way, because Weej just scored a BIG win against a fellow top 20 character, whereas Kirby looked really lackluster against a low midcarder (I'm not considering him even 70% as strong as Kratos). In spite of that, a win over Kirby would help Mario's shadow gain even more momentum against Sonic.

I find it ironic that Luigi may do as well or better against Sonic than Zero did all those years ago. It's a BOLD prediction, but I call Luigi to only lose by a 48/52 margin.
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GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/9/2006 12:51:14 PM | message detail
Replacing The Prince with Knuckles would've given us the best four-pack in any contest.
FACT.
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 12:52:24 PM | message detail
Yeah, that would be ****ing awesome. I still can't believe Knuckles failed to make it in....

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HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 12:54:48 PM | message detail
Nope, I had no idea...until now!

Still though, I just don't buy K:CC and/or random variation helping Kirby like it did against Bowser -- even with you go by Tidus-2k4, it's a hefty jump to where he lands by Bowser. I do agree if Luigi wins it should be because of DS-ownership and/or NSMB, don't let me come off like that -- afterall, I would still think more SSB/M players favor Kirby than Luigi, heh.


I, for one, never think about SSBM when I go to vote in these things.

I think this has been a part of the problem. How many times do you think of a particular game when you go and vote for a character?
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Redtooth | Posted 10/9/2006 1:04:16 PM | message detail
Bowser vs Kirby might have been so close because it was a Nintendo main vs a Nintendo villain. Hero vs Villain could have nullified any visible SFF.

I really can't imagine Luigi vs Kirby without SFF. I mean, we, arguably, have two Nintendo side-chars who now have their very own games, and a solid fanbase. Kirby's possible disappointment with PoP, and Luigi's slightly shocking beating of Zero would make Luigi seem like the stronger character.

Yet, Kirby might benefit from SFF, pushing himself to victory. Kirby has a pretty big fanbase, tons of his own games and an overall demeanor that lends itself better then Luigi. Kirby "Happy" factor might not help much against someone "badass" like PoP, but it certainly won't hurt him against someone kind of cowardly like Luigi.

If Kirby manages to win, it'll be by a slim margin, probably under 52%. If Luigi wins, it'll be by more, like 56%+, disproving anything I've said in Kirby's favor.

Regardless of result, the important thing I think is that this match will by anomalous(real word?). Any stats we get from it will probably be proven wrong very quickly. We'll have to wait for the winner's match against Sonic (or Vincent, lol) to get something at least marginally accurate for anyone in the 4-pack.

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therealmnm | Posted 10/9/2006 1:04:29 PM | message detail
I agree with HM on that whole SSB/M issue. Bowser's popularity has very little to do with SSB. Kirby/Bowser in 2k5 probably would have ended up the same way had Bowser not even been in SSBM. But then, I guess the argument would be changed to "Oh, Bowser wasn't in SSBM so the SSBM fanbase prefer Kirby to him".
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 1:09:09 PM | message detail
I don't think usefulness in SSBM to make arguments for anything is valid, myself...however, for characters that are mostly known for SSBM, such as Marth, Ness, Captain Falcon, Ice Climbers, etc... their usefulness in SSBM might be rather significant. I think character design is still more important, though.

Oh, and you know what I just realized? Luigi might be stronger than Dante. ;)

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wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 1:11:26 PM | message detail
If Luigi>Dante, I fear for Lopen's sanity...
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PokemonPatriarch | Posted 10/9/2006 1:12:40 PM | message detail
Lol, proof why Captain Falcon won't get near the 30% range: you young folk don't know who he IS!

On a more topical note, it'd be funny if Luigi gets the better of SFF. Then statistically Zero would place higher than Kirbz (lol SFF adjustments getting in the way of my fun).
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 1:22:37 PM | message detail
I can't help but think this last divison would've been more interesting if you inserted Knuckles virtually anywhere. Well maybe not Crono/Knuckles. Oh what the heck I'm sure someone would bite.

Knuckles/Post-KHII Auron would be AWESOME.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/9/2006 1:24:30 PM | message detail
I think it's kind of silly to say that SSB has no bearing on Bowser's strength when the series got 35% on Mario. sure it might help someone like Kirby or Samus more, but to deny that it helps Bowser at all is pretty much silly.
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 1:25:12 PM | message detail
I agree with tranny.

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 1:27:12 PM | message detail
If Luigi doesn't beat Kirby, than Zero will have been one of the biggest falls from grace we've seen in these contests, right up there with Magus.

TuRtLe
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 1:28:19 PM | message detail
I can't see SSBM mattering for characters who already have massive amounts of exposure. For characters like Ness, it's barely enough to get them over the fodder line.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 1:28:57 PM | message detail
I think it's kind of silly to say that SSB has no bearing on Bowser's strength when the series got 35% on Mario. sure it might help someone like Kirby or Samus more, but to deny that it helps Bowser at all is pretty much silly.

Zing.

And not quite, BT. Magus' overratedness was proven in one, stunningly awesome match. This...really wasn't. We'll have had ample time to prepare for it.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 1:29:28 PM | message detail
And unlike Magus, Zero wasnt really considered overrated. Thats why I think its gotta be a Luigi boost...probably.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 1:30:09 PM | message detail
Magus' overratedness was proven in one, stunningly awesome match. This...really wasn't. We'll have had ample time to prepare for it.

Uhh...There were plenty of things that pointed to Magus being overrated. I didn't pick Squall to beat him purely out of fanboyism.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 1:30:54 PM | message detail
Even if it's a Luigi boost, I can't see it changing a 51-49 match in Zero's favour (with a potentially underrated Zero, although that's all but dismissed now) into this.

TuRtLe
~~~
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KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 1:31:03 PM | message detail
Put Magus in Prince of Persia's spot. The fun!

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 1:31:58 PM | message detail
Uhh...There were plenty of things that pointed to Magus being overrated. I didn't pick Squall to beat him purely out of fanboyism.

Yeah, but to that extent? I just think that nobody apart from Smurf REALLY saw Knuckles > Magus coming - it was one of the biggest shocks ever. We'll have had time to prepare for the possibility of Zero being horribly overrated.
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trannyscience | Posted 10/9/2006 1:33:50 PM | message detail
good god, you guys are making it sound like Zero was supposed to win with 65% here or that 0% of the board took Luigi. it's a 51/49 match through last year's stats and Zero didn't look good last year. there is no comparison to Magus / Knuckles here.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 1:34:53 PM | message detail
Meh, saying Smurf "saw it coming" is giving him too much credit. It's like giving HaRRicH credit for Kuja/Master Hand solely on the basis that he thought MH could break the fodder line and beat Falco Lombardi. Sure, he got the match right, but the logic (or lack thereof, in Smurf's case) was totally wrong.

Not to take anything away from HaRRicH getting the match right. It was just the outstanding example in my mind at the time.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 1:35:53 PM | message detail
Yeah, the amount of people utterly shocked by this match is surprising. It's not like Zero was an overwhelming favorite. Sure, Luigi's margin of victory is a little astounding, but the idea of him winning was never as farfetched to me as some made it sound.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 1:36:42 PM | message detail
I think its less we had time to prepare for an overrated Zero and more that Luigi is (maybe) finally performing up to everyone's original expectations for him. He was such an overwhelming disappointment, it was just a matter of time before he brought his A game.
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THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 1:39:01 PM | message detail
At the 16:35 mark, this match has 91596 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Samus/Nidoran F - 77245
Riku/Yoshi - 93956
Mega Man/Axel - 77885
Kirby/Prince - 90689

Luigi sure knows how to draw votes.
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