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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382

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Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 8:40:36 AM | message detail

*Snake, Crono, or Sonic, not Snake, Crono, or Snake.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!

dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 8:41:30 AM | message detail

Also, why does everyone think their bracket is toast now?

I can't speak for everyone else, but I just got eliminated in the guru contest IIRC, which means even if the rest of my bracket is perfect, at least one person will beat me. A top fifty appearance is the best I can hope for I think, and even then I'm realistic enough to know how unlikely that is.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!

Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 8:41:46 AM | message detail

Luigi/Kirby goes like this for me, which is better, 54-55% on Zero or 62% on the Prince.

Zero would annihilate the prince by at least a doubling.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:41:48 AM | message detail

Considering last time Zero got about 38% against Mario and Bowser got about 49.5% against Solid Snake, I'd say what Kirby did with Bowser is more impressive.

I agree. And then once we DO consider SFF, it's even more impressive by Kirby since all logic would point to him doing worse than expected against Bowser. Even if he is actually weaker than he showed against Bowser, that just means he stole SFF. And if he can take it from Bowser, he can take it from Luigi.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

consolefreak | Posted 10/9/2006 8:41:55 AM | message detail

Yes, forget Luigi, time to talk about PoP's greatness again! The best thing about this match is the whining, I actually think it's worse than PW/GF.

What? How is that whining? I didn't have a lot of time left so I just replied to that comment..

Anyway, crazy performance by Luigi here today. That's gonna cost me 3 points :(
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CB: 27/27. Today: Luigi vs. Zero. Tomorrow: Crono vs. Captain Falcon.

dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 8:53:43 AM | message detail

Considering how Luigi is increasing his percentage now, there's an outside chance he'll finish higher then megaman did on zero in 2k4. Now I realize a match from two years ago has little bearing on this contest in a lot of ways, but that's still damn impressive.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:00:26 AM | message detail

Psst, Smurf, stop jinxing the Mega Man upset >_<

MM losing to Snake after Snake got put against him two years in a row would kick ASS. By the way, that method Smith talked about in his suicide really does work. I didn't test it myself (no need to), but it makes you wonder how often it goes on. And since Ceej is the only guy that can ban people, he knows about it as well.

It's the same thing with creating new accounts if you have an ip in bad standing (lol hi me), after you make a couple in one day, you can't do it anymore. While it may initially accept your vote, I guarantee that those votes are being thrown out, and users being banned.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 9:08:34 AM | message detail

I'm probably going to be down 5 points - 1 for this, two for Luigi/Kirby where I had Zero winning, and two for Dante/Yoshi, where I took Yoshi.

x_X

That's not accounting for Jill/Peach (I have Peach), Chun-Li/Lara (lol came and went in a blink of the eye), and Sonic > Male Bracket.

Ergh.
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AC2K6 Score: 26/26 Today: Kirby

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:12:42 AM | message detail

People seriously need to stop saying "Luigi/Sonic" and "When Luigi kills Kirby" like it's a foregone conclusion that he's going to rock faces. You know what else was a foregone conclusion? Zero > Luigi, I mean it's only projected to go 51-49, BUT STONE COLD LOCK.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:13:42 AM | message detail

I remember when Kuja was a LOCK to beat Master Hand. And then when Master Hand beat Kuja, he was a LOCK to beat Robotnik.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:14:07 AM | message detail

Luigi/Kirby goes like this for me, which is better, 54-55% on Zero or 62% on the Prince.

Zero would annihilate the prince by at least a doubling.

So now Zero doesn't just beat Kirby, but slaughters him? Yeah, okay.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:14:54 AM | message detail

What? How is that whining? I didn't have a lot of time left so I just replied to that comment..

Anyway, crazy performance by Luigi here today. That's gonna cost me 3 points :(

They were two completely unrelated thoughts, I should have broken them up!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:15:54 AM | message detail

I remember when Kuja was a LOCK to beat Master Hand. And then when Master Hand beat Kuja, he was a LOCK to beat Robotnik.

I remember that too, and I had Robot > Hand, and never wavered. I also had Kirby > Luigi, and not wavering!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:16:53 AM | message detail

I remember that too, and I had Robot > Hand, and never wavered. I also had Kirby > Luigi, and not wavering!

Same here!! :)
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 9:17:16 AM | message detail

I'm probably going to be down 5 points - 1 for this, two for Luigi/Kirby where I had Zero winning, and two for Dante/Yoshi, where I took Yoshi.

Seeing Luigi win this match only gives me more confidence that Yoshi will beat Dante, and I was already relatively confident to begin with.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:17:46 AM | message detail

I was just thinking the other day how much I was missing your presence from these topics.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:18:12 AM | message detail

I was just thinking the other day how much I was missing your presence from these topics.

Moi?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:19:24 AM | message detail

Si!

Oh, and Dante > Yoshi is still as big of a lock as ever. Book it!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:20:47 AM | message detail

Thanks. :)

And yeah, I still say Dante beats Yoshi. It'll be closer than it should be though.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 9:21:10 AM | message detail

Hmm, today is cheering me up somewhat regarding Yoshi/Dante, but...blegh. I'm still favouring Dante to win it.
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AC2K6 Score: 27/27 Today:Zero >_<

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:22:48 AM | message detail

I'm totally kicking HM's ass if my bracket plays out perfectly from here, and Sonic > Vincent, Crono > Sonic, Crono > MM, Samus > Crono happens. STOP BRAINWASHING ME SERIOUSLY.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:23:07 AM | message detail

See, the thing here is, Dante seems to have ended last year a bit stronger than Yoshi. Yoshi WILL have gotten stronger thanks to the same influx of Nintendo fans that Luigi is benfitting from, due to DSes flying off the shelves (partly, but not solely because of NSMB). So Yoshi and Dante will basically be pretty even. And then Dante gets the fact that DMC3: SE sold, what, the same amount as DMC3? He should be a bit stronger, enough to let him edge out Yoshi.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 9:23:34 AM | message detail

That's what my bracket looks like, EC. We can kick HM's ass together!

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/9/2006 9:23:55 AM | message detail

Don't forget DMC2 going greatest hits, and DMC: Greatest Hits Collection coming out 5 days after!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:24:24 AM | message detail

Don't forget DMC2 going greatest hits, and DMC: Greatest Hits Collection coming out 5 days after!

I didn't even know about that. So my case just gets more help!
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 9:24:38 AM | message detail

Amen Dp!

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mmm feel the vibration baby

transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:25:02 AM | message detail

DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 9:25:22 AM | message detail

Is there a link to the BOP somewhere?

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:26:05 AM | message detail

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 9:27:42 AM | message detail

Is there a link to the BOP somewhere?

http://www.freewebs.com/adeptofaiur/bop.xls

I didn't do the odds with the pretty colors or anything because I don't really know how to.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 9:32:12 AM | message detail

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 9:33:00 AM | message detail

ehh, I don't think this is NSMB. if you actually believe Luigi boosted through the roof because of that, Bowser's going to put the scare of his life into Crono. if this is just Mario characters boosting, Dante's in big trouble. and if it's Nintendo-Mega Man SFF again, it doesn't mean a thing. so really, there's nothing we can draw from this match.

I'm in the theory of it's friggin' Luigi, which is what I used to pick this match. I figured using x-stats was a wash, so I went with what felt right. Luigi > Zero was just filled with truthiness. Anyway, Luigi is still outperforming my expectations, and I'm definitely more inclined to drop Zero another 2% than boost Luigi up anywhere. Yoshi didn't exactly impress, though Riku has KH2, but if KH2 really boosted him that much, then Tingle is a ****ing beast. TINGLE YOU HEAR ME YOU SICK BASTARDS, ****ING TINGLE.

So basically, I'd consider Zero dropping + a tinge of SFF or "Something Fishy Factor" causing a slight overperformance by Luigi. I really don't think Luigi ends up higher than 1% in the stats this year when compared to last.
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mmm feel the vibration baby

transience | Posted 10/9/2006 9:37:16 AM | message detail

GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 9:41:22 AM | message detail

I don't think you have to have any knowledge of the x-stats to believe Zero was superior here, just contest history. to me, this is just Luigi finally living up to the hype of being a strong character. throw that in with some Mario > Mega Man and you've got an "upset". I agree with you that Luigi ends up at the same 31-32% spot he had last year.

Zero has performed better in years prior to 2K5 no doubt, but there was absolutely nothing in 2K5 involving him that seemed off to me, which is why I never bought Mario/Zero SFF, and really thought Luigi/Zero were on the same level. After that, like I said, it's Luigi!

I don't think this means Yoshi's going to demolish Dante or any of that.. but I sure wouldn't feel good about having Dante after seeing this. oh, and if you believe Riku did so well because of a massive KH2 boost, Sora > Mega Man!!!

Why wouldn't you feel good? If you believe Luigi stays pretty much constant, then that means you believe there isn't going to be a Nintendo/Mario boost. And if Yoshi is signficantly stronger, then what else can you explain Riku/Yoshi with other than KH2? My point was that it's completely ridiculous for Yoshi to be that strong, because if he is, Sora's a contender for the championship, and Tingle is a beast.

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mmm feel the vibration baby

consolefreak | Posted 10/9/2006 9:59:40 AM | message detail

They were two completely unrelated thoughts, I should have broken them up!

Right. I knew that >_>

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CB: 27/27. Today: Luigi vs. Zero. Tomorrow: Crono vs. Captain Falcon.

KingBartz | Posted 10/9/2006 10:17:07 AM | message detail

Hooray for my birthday! And what a sight to behold. Luigi is stomping Zero like a goomba. Hello top 200?
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I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 26/27 Today's upset special: Luigi

Redtooth | Posted 10/9/2006 10:19:01 AM | message detail

Stop the presses! Zero won an update!

COMEBACK TI...

oh wait, a tad bit late for that...

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Z1mZum>Redtooth
Nice list, I counted twenty that would be in my top ten - BlondeAfroHero7

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:21:49 AM | message detail

My god, can you just imagine a Riku/Zero match? That would have been awesome.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/9/2006 10:21:54 AM | message detail

I just don't see how Mario version 2 is going to boost this much because of a role after the main game is finished.

Because we've been waiting ten years for playable Luigi in a non-side game, that's why!

But I've never, ever, EVER seen why people like the essential characterization of a booger. In Mario 1/3/World/NSMB, Luigi is just the guy that the second player was stuck with. In Mario 2, he had an uncontrollable jump and Peach was just better. Mario World 2? Yeah, Luigi was the brat that got kidnapped, not Mario. And he wasn't even IN Mario 64. Was he in Sunshine?

Okay, this is one of those things at first where you just come to root for Luigi because he's always the guy in the shadows. Plus, green > red, and Luigi in Super Mario Brothers Super Show >>>>>>>>>>>>> Mario

After that, Luigi owns in the Mario RPG games. Without him, Superstar Saga and Partners in Time would have sucked horribly. Luigi's story in PM:TTYD was hilarious. Honestly, Luigi has loads more characterization than Mario does because Nintendo actually lets him, you know, talk.

And Exploding Green Missile in SSBM >> All

THIS is the Luigi I've been waiting to see for THREE years, so you better believe I'm lovin' this! I was worried about Luigi/Kirby being a foregone conclusion if he beat Zero because I figured it wouldn't be by much, but now...I have HOPE! And you better believe he's gonna overperform on Sonic if he gets there!

In short, don't make me post my Luigi write-up.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna

Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:22:45 AM | message detail

*catches up in 3 stats topics* That took a little while...

Luigi is wowing me... I'm tempted to say it's a little more Zero weakness than Luigi strength, but who knows? It's kinda funny that both Zero and Ryu Hayabusa did worse than the stats projected...Zero over-performed against Mario!!!!!111

Looking ahead...unless Luigi boosted again, while Kirby did not, I say Kirby still has a slight advantage next round. Kirby got 48% on Bowser. If there was rSFF there, and considering Kirby isn't a Mario character, I can't see Kirby being rSFFed even by Yoshi, and there's a good chance Kirby would SFF Luigi, who's weaker than Bowser. I don't think Kirby's 62% on Prince of Persia is a valid argument for Kirby's weakness... say, 25% on BL would be well within the range of what I would expected PoP to be around.

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WildCherrySoul | Posted 10/9/2006 10:25:25 AM | message detail

Because we've been waiting ten years for playable Luigi in a non-side game, that's why!

If you've been patiently waiting for Luigi to appear in a non-side game for that long, seems to me you would have voted for Luigi even if NSMB never existed.
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Good to the last drop

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 10:32:03 AM | message detail

Bored. Vegas odds!

Lara gets more than 45% on Chun-Li
The Boss evades a doubling from Tifa.
Kirby > Luigi
Ada rSFFs Samus and overperforms (It could happen!)
Kairi gets over 45% on Rikku
Leon breaks 42.5 on Bowser
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AC2K6 Score: 27/27 Today:Zero >_

Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 10:32:48 AM | message detail

Wow, I didn't even use the stats to pick Zero over Luigi, yet their getting blamed. Luigi's one of the biggest chokes we have, and I honestly didn't think Luigi 2005 was legit, which was why I went with Zero. But apparently, simple logic wins again (If Mario can get 63% on Zero, surely his brother can't lose!!)

As for the people saying if Kirby can rSFF Bowser and look stronger, what's stopping him from doing the same on Luigi, I'm going to agree there. That's really why I've felt so good about Kirby > Luigi, but not Kirby > Zero. Seriously, if Kirby can't do anything against Luigi, yet he could against Bowser, who's higher on the Nintendo chain, I'll be dumbfounded.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)

Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 10:36:45 AM | message detail

And I also don't understand why people are feeling better about Yoshi > Dante. Dante still looked like a beast out there against Ryu, and I can't imagine Riku being so high if Yoshi manages to win.

Besides, Luigi 2K5 and 2k6 > Yoshi. Back in 2004, you could make an argument that they were equals and Yoshi SFFed him (and that's more evidence for Kirby > Luigi), but now? Luigi is stronger indirectly.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27)

Haste_2 | Posted 10/9/2006 10:39:02 AM | message detail

You know, Luigi is -really- good at attracting those votes.

Lara gets more than 45% on Chun-Li - 4:1
The Boss evades a doubling from Tifa. 9:1
Kirby > Luigi 1:1.5
Ada rSFFs Samus and overperforms (It could happen!) Whatever...we'll never know, anyway.
Kairi gets over 45% on Rikku 6:1.
Leon breaks 42.5 on Bowser 15:1

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/9/2006 10:40:48 AM | message detail

Lara gets more than 45% on Chun-Li - 4:1

*sex*
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AC2K6 Score: 27/27 Today:Zero >_

GyratingGrandma | Posted 10/9/2006 10:42:27 AM | message detail

After that, Luigi owns in the Mario RPG games. Without him, Superstar Saga and Partners in Time would have sucked horribly. Luigi's story in PM:TTYD was hilarious. Honestly, Luigi has loads more characterization than Mario does because Nintendo actually lets him, you know, talk.

Right there! That's why Luigi kicks ass, he makes those games.

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mmm feel the vibration baby

Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2006 10:47:22 AM | message detail

And I also don't understand why people are feeling better about Yoshi > Dante. Dante still looked like a beast out there against Ryu, and I can't imagine Riku being so high if Yoshi manages to win.

Well, this match is making Hayabusa look pretty bad, and Luigi look pretty good. How could that be bad for Yoshi > Dante?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 10:48:58 AM | message detail

Can someone explain Vegas Odds to me?
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

voltch | Posted 10/9/2006 10:49:46 AM | message detail

luigi should have shown that kind of power back in the old days vs squall,that would have averted the legendary board mess i keep hearing about.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.

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