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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382

UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:44:36 AM | message detail
*waves Bowser > Crono flag*

Are any of our elite 9 characters worse than Crono? Crono is a lame Japanese attempt at putting you the player into the character's role, yet the story is linear regardless. It's really the one argument WRPG fanboys have that's valid. Japan fails at that style.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Phediuk | Posted 10/9/2006 7:46:18 AM | message detail
Which makes sense, but HOW in the world did Vincent beat Ganon despite being the bracket underdog and lower seed?

Advent Children + Dirge of Cerberus.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:47:22 AM | message detail
but teh 2003 stats lolzor

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 7:52:09 AM | message detail
Which makes sense, but HOW in the world did Vincent beat Ganon despite being the bracket underdog and lower seed?

Seeding isn't everything. Sora has a higher seed then Mega Man but how many people are considering Sora the favorite? As for being the bracket underdog, I'm sure that only served to hurt Vincent, but the exp-stats had Vincent winning by a lot, even the SFF-adjusted ones had him winning by a fair amount. And since then Vincent had Dirge of Cerberus which, even if it didn't really increase his fanbase, likely served to have more Vincent fans on the site at the time.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:52:23 AM | message detail
How many perfects remain after this?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 7:53:04 AM | message detail
How many perfects remain after this?

60.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
shadow8021 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:53:23 AM | message detail
Bowser > Male Bracket
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Character Battle Score: 27/27
Today's Pick: Zero
LinkLegend27 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:53:56 AM | message detail
Meh, 47 perfects'll be left.
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CB5:20 out of 21.
BSE:78 out of 80.
Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 7:54:36 AM | message detail
I'm hoping a little less then 60. The few perfects I've talked to seem to have favored Zero but that's hardly an accurate sample size. I bet this is going to be one of the matches were the more casual predictors were right more often then the skilled predictors.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Phediuk | Posted 10/9/2006 8:00:16 AM | message detail
What's with the general attitude that Mario's 200th game would suddenly give him a tremendous boost that his other 199 games could not give him, yet Vincent appearing a very popular movie and starring in his (first) own game wouldn't give him any sort of help whatsoever?

I love how close-minded the stats topic is. If something happens outside the incredibly small window of possiblity that the X-stats predict for each match, some sort of "factor" has to be at work.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 8:03:21 AM | message detail
What's with the general attitude that Mario's 200th game would suddenly give him a tremendous boost that his other 199 games could not give him, yet Vincent appearing a very popular movie and starring in his (first) own game wouldn't give him any sort of help whatsoever?

I love how close-minded the stats topic is. If something happens outside the incredibly small window of possiblity that the X-stats predict for each match, some sort of "factor" has to be at work.


I agree, but not only that, but the X-stats predicted Vincent beating Ganondorf. So those picking Ganondorf (the clear majority as it turned out) were in fact hoping that some sort of factor would prove the X-stats wrong to begin with.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:11:29 AM | message detail
I love how close-minded the stats topic is.

You're not exactly someone that has grounds to make that accusation, unless you're trying to prove what irony is. I agree that this topic is closed-minded, but still. You start more unnecessary arguments about video games than anyone else, and are generally more elitist about them than anyone else just because you know a ton of gaming history. Congrats.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:12:43 AM | message detail
And I'll say... 15 perfects. Most of the high scores are people who aren't casuals, I bet.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 8:12:57 AM | message detail
Guys, guys, give Ulti a break. He's just mad because both his perfect and zero bracket got crushed by the man in green.

^_^

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 8:13:58 AM | message detail
Zero actually won two updates during the dead zone, by two and three votes. But Luigi is, as I expected, doing pretty well for himself in the morning. Anyway, Luigi's percentage by the hour:

11:00 | 56.83%
10:00 | 56.31%
09:00 | 56.25%
08:00 | 58.06%
07:00 | 53.26%
06:00 | 52.89%
05:00 | 50.46%
04:00 | 52.91%
03:00 | 52.68%
02:00 | 53.37%
01:00 | 55.18%
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:15:44 AM | message detail
From KamikazePotato Posted 10/9/2006 11:12:57 AM #214
Guys, guys, give Ulti a break. He's just mad because both his perfect and zero bracket got crushed by the man in green.

Uhhhhhh, k?

The only thing I have to be remotely upset about at the moment is having writer's block on a paper that's due in.... 2 hours. Way better things to worry about than online popularity contests, and why I constantly have to explain myself to you people is beyond me.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 8:17:23 AM | message detail
You people? Racist little...
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Phediuk | Posted 10/9/2006 8:18:19 AM | message detail
You start more unnecessary arguments about video games than anyone else,

Actually, Lucid started the SSB vs. SSBM argument. But I'll forgive you because you're reasonable.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:18:22 AM | message detail
From The n00b Avenger Posted 10/9/2006 11:17:23 AM #217
You people? Racist little...

HEY! I have plenty of friends just like Luigi! <_<

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/9/2006 8:19:08 AM | message detail
OH WOW YES O_O

*Orgams*

Screw my bracket! <3333333333 Luigi
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:21:21 AM | message detail
Actually, Lucid started the SSB vs. SSBM argument. But I'll forgive you because you're reasonable.

Sure thing, I guess. I still don't understand the throwing argument though given that it's far more difficult to throw people in the original. You're better off arguing the lack of DI and how it directly causes ridiculous combos that anyone can pull off once they see it a couple of times. That's why SSB is balanced, because it has things available to literally anyone. SSBM's exercises in physics abuse are almost impossible for most people.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 8:22:07 AM | message detail
Way better things to worry about than online popularity contests, and why I constantly have to explain myself to you people is beyond me.

Which is why that you've done nothing but complain about Luigi winning.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:22:08 AM | message detail
From TheCruelAngel Posted 10/9/2006 11:19:08 AM #220
OH WOW YES O_O

*Orgams*

Screw my bracket! <3333333333 Luigi


Leave it to a Squall fanboy to not spell orgasm correctly. Not too experienced in that field, are you? <_<

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:22:54 AM | message detail
Which is why that you've done nothing but complain about Luigi winning.

Oh man ONE POST saying I don't like Luigi's character!! Awwwwww snap.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:25:33 AM | message detail
The only thing I feel like complaining about right now is the damn AP Stylebook changing every year.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/9/2006 8:27:20 AM | message detail
Leave it to a Squall fanboy to not spell orgasm correctly. Not too experienced in that field, are you? <_<

More experienced than you'll ever be!

(Pssst! If you want it that badly from me, come up here. I'm waiting.)
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/9/2006 8:27:23 AM | message detail
Well there goes my bracket. On the plus side it took longer then usual for my bracket to get destroyed this contest. I mostly cheer on my favourite characters in the contests anyways, but now that's going to be all I do. >_>

There seems to be a lot of opportunities for the noble nine to fall this year, and if luigi's value from last year was accurate and he's boosted considerably yet again, I can't help but wonder what his chances are against Sonic.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:27:55 AM | message detail
(Pssst! If you want it that badly from me, come up here. I'm waiting.)

You, me, tran man? AW YEAH.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 8:29:01 AM | message detail
Luigi's chances against Sonic are nonexistant, really. I just want him to get past Kirby.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:30:45 AM | message detail
I said from day one that Luigi was a bigger threat to Zero than Kirby was. I'd be really surprised if Luigi didn't win that one.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:31:57 AM | message detail
What's with the general attitude that Mario's 200th game would suddenly give him a tremendous boost that his other 199 games could not give him, yet Vincent appearing a very popular movie and starring in his (first) own game wouldn't give him any sort of help whatsoever?

I love how close-minded the stats topic is. If something happens outside the incredibly small window of possiblity that the X-stats predict for each match, some sort of "factor" has to be at work.


And I fail to understand why people are willing to accept that Vincent's game would boost him but don't like the idea of Luigi getting a boost from the first 2-D sidescrolling Mario game in over 10 years. The fact is, Vincent AND Luigi probably got stronger, as did Ganondorf.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 8:31:58 AM | message detail
If Luigi can beat Zero, he damn well better beat Kirby.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:33:04 AM | message detail
Also, why does everyone think their bracket is toast now? Last contest the winner had 7 less points than perfection.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 8:33:11 AM | message detail
After seeing Kirby fall short of 62% on PoP and Luigi beating Zero with 55% and climbing, it's really hard for me not to say he's the favorite.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:33:24 AM | message detail
don't like the idea of Luigi getting a boost from the first 2-D sidescrolling Mario game in over 10 years

Because NSMB isn't very good?

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 8:33:35 AM | message detail
"He" meaning Luigi of course
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 8:33:48 AM | message detail
Yet you picked Zero to win his fourpack?

And I'd honestly be surprised if Luigi won against Kirby at this point. Luigi is like Knuckles, he always wins the first round and then jobs in the second. It's sure to hold!

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 8:34:07 AM | message detail
If Luigi can beat Zero, he damn well better beat Kirby.

Well Kirby was very good against Bowser last year, and traditionally Bowser has been a top-tier Nintendo character, in these contests I think well above Luigi.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:34:34 AM | message detail
Because NSMB isn't very good?

I agree wholeheartedly. It still got a generally positive reception, expanded DS ownership, and likely drew more Nintendo fans to the site.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:34:37 AM | message detail
From Adept of Aiur Posted 10/9/2006 11:33:04 AM #233
Also, why does everyone think their bracket is toast now?

Exactly why I'm not really caring about this. If I get everything else right, I'm -3 in the main bracket. That's easily made up if Crono outlasts Mario in the TOC, which is an upset that almost no one else with a serious bracket has.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:35:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, I could have gotten every debated first round match wrong and not really been too shaken up. Almost no one has Sonic over Snake in the Male Bracket.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/9/2006 8:35:45 AM | message detail
I'm absolutely convinced that Luigi is indirectly stronger than Kirby (I don't think Zero/Tidus would be close, certainly more than 53/47), so all Luigi has to worry about is SFF. Which is something worth worrying about, as it seems quite probable that Yoshi SFF'd Luigi and Kirby rSFF'd Bowser. Still, I'm confident in Luigi.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
KamikazePotato | Posted 10/9/2006 8:36:38 AM | message detail
Psh, I have freaking Mega Man winning the contest. I could've gotten the female side of the bracket entirely wrong and still been in the running.

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Do you really need me to bring out the Ovaltine?-Stripey12isback on why hes a war hero.
Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 8:36:56 AM | message detail
Disregarding any notions about SFF, this comes down to whether you think 48% on Bowser is more or less impressive than 55-57% on Zero.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/9/2006 8:38:09 AM | message detail
After seeing Kirby fall short of 62% on PoP and Luigi beating Zero with 55% and climbing, it's really hard for me not to say he's the favorite.

Completely agreed. If the morning vote was any indication, Luigi will kill him even harder in a little under four hours. You'd have to give The Prince some very legitimate strength (or claim that Kirby will steal the SFF) in order to argue for pinky as the favorite.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
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DpObliVion | Posted 10/9/2006 8:39:17 AM | message detail
Luigi is like Knuckles, he always wins the first round and then jobs in the second. It's sure to hold!

Hey now, it's lot Knuckles' fault he kept having to go up against Solid Snake in the 2nd round every time.

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Dp, you are one awesome, sexy bastard. I less than 3 you. -Shadow Ryoko
NEW YORK METS: 2006 NL EASTERN DIVISION CHAMPS
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 8:39:28 AM | message detail
Psh, I have freaking Mega Man winning the contest. I could've gotten the female side of the bracket entirely wrong and still been in the running.

High five!

Though I think I'm the only MM picker who got Luigi winning his four pack right, and who predicted Axel to go around 70/30 with him. Underestimating Nintendo (specifically Mario characters) and KH2=fail for you guys. Thankfully neither Snake, Crono, or Snake are a part of those companies/games.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 8:39:29 AM | message detail
lol the pinky

Kirby sounds REALLY bad right now.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Big Bob | Posted 10/9/2006 8:40:18 AM | message detail
I have Sonic > Mega Man for the male bracket.

I'm not worried about Kirby though. Luigi's doing a bit better than I expected, but if hype means anything this contest, Kirby's appearance in the SSBB trailer will allow him to stay strong one more time.

And Luigi's actually pretty good in Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door. He's not playable, but he does have his own adventure alongside yours that's absolutely hilarious.
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti
Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 8:40:21 AM | message detail
Disregarding any notions about SFF, this comes down to whether you think 48% on Bowser is more or less impressive than 55-57% on Zero.

Considering last time Zero got about 38% against Mario and Bowser got about 49.5% against Solid Snake, I'd say what Kirby did with Bowser is more impressive.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon