GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382
| janembaman | Posted 10/9/2006 2:47:41 AM | message detail |
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01:00:01-1247 Lead 02:00:06-1767 Lead 03:00:06-1985 Lead 04:00:02-2180 Lead 05:00:02-2321 Lead How in 1 hour Luigi leads by 1247,and after 4 hours his lead was up by only 1074? Weird --- your lives that I spit on are now but a caricature of a cartoon by a kid who is stupid! |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2006 2:49:53 AM | message detail |
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the later you go, the stronger the night vote is. had this match
started at 3am instead of midnight it might have looked somewhat
interesting. come morning, Luigi should just start tearing Zero apart. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| janembaman | Posted 10/9/2006 3:00:51 AM | message detail |
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01:00:02-1496 Lead 02:00:06-2433 Lead 03:00:02-3240 Lead 04:00:03-3846 Lead 05:00:02-4342 Lead This is Riku-Yoshi Yoshi lead after the first hour is similar to Luigi But unlike Luigi,Yoshi's lead increased normally --- your lives that I spit on are now but a caricature of a cartoon by a kid who is stupid! |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 3:41:52 AM | message detail |
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Meh, I can't take this match too seriously since there's probably been some stuffing. I dunno. --- Luigi vs. Zero / Bracket: Zero / Vote: Zero (26/27) Tomorrow / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon |
| Kratos_42 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:49:41 AM | message detail |
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Haha, yes! Take that, everyone who's mocked me for picking Luigi! Kosy>Aeris, Alucard>Auron, I can't fail now! Effing Pheonix... --- He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising. |
| Dark115 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:51:04 AM | message detail |
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Well, looks like I was right about Zero being overrated. Unfortunately
I still thought he'd beat Luigi and then loose to Kirby. Gotta hand it
to the people that choose Luigi, I never really saw this one coming --- Current Content Score: 27/27 My Collection: http://club.ign.com/b/list/custom?lid=100018&owner=Dark115.&mode=vown |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/9/2006 4:08:42 AM | message detail |
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So is a comeback from Zero pretty much impossible now? Please tell me theres a slight chance. This is way too depressing. --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you? |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/9/2006 4:09:18 AM | message detail |
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Meh, I can't take this match too seriously since there's probably been some stuffing. I dunno. You heard the rumors too ey? --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you? |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/9/2006 4:10:56 AM | message detail |
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I don't know if Zero can still win or not but if someone stuffed for Luigi more than we think, I wouldn't rule it out.. But the morning vote tells me that Luigi's indirectly stronger no matter what happened. I just want to see the legit margin between these two. --- Luigi vs. Zero / Bracket: Zero / Vote: Zero (26/27) Tomorrow / Bracket: Crono / Vote: Falcon |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2006 4:22:07 AM | message detail |
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vote stuffing? 2500 votes and climbing? with Luigi poised to double that by noon or so? this match is over and done with. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 4:32:17 AM | message detail |
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The first hour and a half for Ganondorf was very similar to his
strongest time of the morning vote, for some reason. Could just be the
same for Luigi. If there is vote stuffing, I doubt it's a huge factor --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 4:36:21 AM | message detail |
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Is there a by-the-hour comparison we can see for this match yet? --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 4:39:15 AM | message detail |
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I wonder how much seed helps Luigi? I picked him in part because I
thought with the higher seed, there'd just naturally be more people
casually predicting he'd win, and in the first round the likelihood of
people voting with their bracket is much higher. I figured maybe it'd
be the difference in a close match, but then Luigi is winning by
significantly more then I thought. For what it's worth, the SC2K5 Exp-Stats favored Zero by a slim margin so is this just them being a bit inaccurate, or is this a sign that Zero's weaker this year (perhaps it would be why he only got nominations enough for a 7th seed to begin with)? --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 4:42:09 AM | message detail |
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Make your own hour by hour, it only takes a couple minutes >_> 0:00-1:00=55.39% 1:00-2:00=53.71% 2:00-3:00=52.27% 3:00-4:00=52.92% 4:00-5:00=51.30% 5:00-6:00=53.31% 6:00-7:00=54.26% --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/9/2006 4:42:49 AM | message detail |
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Sorry, I'm gettin' ready for classes over here! Thanks Avenger. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 4:43:31 AM | message detail |
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What stuffing are you people talking about? I doubt there was any
stuffing that was successful enough for us to see it reflected in the
votes. It probably got caught by whatever new methods Ceej uses and
removed before the updates ever caught them. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 4:43:55 AM | message detail |
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I was just teasing you, you big galoot --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2006 4:47:41 AM | message detail |
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I think the big question is if this is Luigi boosting to near-elite
levels or if Zero has just been overrated all along. we have no way of
knowing that for another few weeks, either. hmm.. Mega Man / Ryu could be interesting. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 4:58:23 AM | message detail |
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I think the big question is if this is Luigi boosting to near-elite
levels or if Zero has just been overrated all along. we have no way of
knowing that for another few weeks, either. The third option is that Zero wasn't overrated before, but has weakened over time. Either way, I wouldn't peg Luigi's victory as a near-elite level boost. Mario got about 62% of the vote against Zero when he faced him last year and Luigi, as impressive as he's being, is getting no where near that. --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/9/2006 5:00:46 AM | message detail |
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Speaking of by-the-hour, Luigi just got 57.68% in the last one. gg Zero --- ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand. |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/9/2006 5:02:18 AM | message detail |
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*wakes up* Oh hell yeah! Go Luigi! And... err... any of you started thinking about Kirby/Luigi? --- CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Luigi with 50.51% |
| Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 5:03:26 AM | message detail |
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And... err... any of you started thinking about Kirby/Luigi? I got Kirby beating Luigi. Even with Luigi winning by this much, I still think Kirby will win it by a safe margin. --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2006 5:05:02 AM | message detail |
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assuming Luigi wins with 55% of the vote (which seems likely) and Zero 2k5 = Zero 2k6, Luigi is at 35.30%, above 2005 Squall. (and Kirby, while we're at it) if Luigi 2k5 = Luigi 2k6, Zero is at 28.19%, between Leon Kennedy and Yoshi. it's like somewhere between that -- Luigi stronger than he was in 2k5 and Zero equal at best. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| transience | Posted 10/9/2006 5:06:26 AM | message detail |
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likely, that is. not like. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/9/2006 5:16:18 AM | message detail |
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I hate it because it's the kind of match where I wouldn't be surprised
to see Luigi get 60% (just happy) and I wouldn't be surprised to see
Kirby get 60%. And it could be a very close match too... @_@ --- CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: Luigi with 50.51% |
| Tediz247 | Posted 10/9/2006 5:32:46 AM | message detail |
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Crap. I was hoping to get on the leaderboard too. At least this makes
Snake > Mega Man seem more and more plausible. If Sephiroth >
Cloud happens, I might still win the contest >_> --- That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end. ZSB [aX] |
| Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 5:46:01 AM | message detail |
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Crap. I was hoping to get on the leaderboard too. At least this
makes Snake > Mega Man seem more and more plausible. If Sephiroth
> Cloud happens, I might still win the contest >_> I'm a bit worried about picking Snake > Mega Man myself. I doubt Sephiroth will beat Cloud though. Who knows what will happen in the battle royale, but Cloud already beat Sephy by a clean margin before, and given that they're from the same game and fanbase, I doubt that's changed enough to give Sephiroth a real shot. I think if anything, the votes will split well towards Cloud and Sephiroth will end up falling a place or two from 3rd (depending of course also on how the Nintendo votes split). --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| Terran | Posted 10/9/2006 5:46:33 AM | message detail |
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I'm a bit worried about picking Snake > Mega Man myself. I meant, I picked Mega Man > Snake and I'm worried about that. --- Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony! "When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 6:56:46 AM | message detail |
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The other potential explanation here is a case of the legendary reverse
SFF!!! Or, possibly just Luigi really being slightly stronger than Zero
but getting maybe 5% extra through SFF. Or MAYBE, stats are not hard
and fast and have more room for error than we like to believe. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:01:47 AM | message detail |
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Psst, Smurf, stop jinxing the Mega Man upset >_< MM losing to Snake after Snake got put against him two years in a row would kick ASS. By the way, that method Smith talked about in his suicide really does work. I didn't test it myself (no need to), but it makes you wonder how often it goes on. And since Ceej is the only guy that can ban people, he knows about it as well. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:12:58 AM | message detail |
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Ok after reading this topic, I don't think the vote stuffer was the
cause of Luigi's win and I doubt that he stuff any more than a couple
hundred votes. Also by looking at the board it seems that people are shock that Luigi is winning. The mentality was that Luigi was to do well, but they never thought that he would actually win. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:15:56 AM | message detail |
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By the way, the only thing I'm really upset about is that it had to be
****in' LUIGI pulling the upset. I didn't care about Magus/Knux,
because I love Knux. With getting Link/Cloud or Zelda/FF wrong, I was
already out of the contests where I got those wrong. Et cetera. But I've never, ever, EVER seen why people like the essential characterization of a booger. In Mario 1/3/World/NSMB, Luigi is just the guy that the second player was stuck with. In Mario 2, he had an uncontrollable jump and Peach was just better. Mario World 2? Yeah, Luigi was the brat that got kidnapped, not Mario. And he wasn't even IN Mario 64. Was he in Sunshine? On top of that, he's a little pansy-ass. Luigi's Mansion? Both SSB games? I'm surprised Mario is even proud to be this guy's brother. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:16:37 AM | message detail |
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From charmander6000 Posted 10/9/2006 10:12:58 AM #181 Ok after reading this topic, I don't think the vote stuffer was the cause of Luigi's win and I doubt that he stuff any more than a couple hundred votes. Well according to the guy that did it, he was stuffing for Zero. Some effect that had. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI |
| charmander6000 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:20:16 AM | message detail |
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So I stop reading that AIM convo after the first post. --- "I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 7:30:59 AM | message detail |
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If you look at the updates, it would make sense that he was stuffing
for Luigi near the beginning, because it was at that point that the
votals were much higher than Vince/Ganny, plus Luigi was getting 56%
updates until the guy got banned and he suddenly dropped to a
consistant 53% TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Master Moltar | Posted 10/9/2006 7:32:55 AM | message detail |
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Morning vote pushing Luigi to 55%. I still can't believe this. How did Luigi turn from a chump to a threat? --- Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded. Luigi vs. Zero - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (25/27) |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 7:33:37 AM | message detail |
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And just looking through the updates, this would've been a great match
if Zero caught Luigi's early lead then slowed down in the morning. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/9/2006 7:33:56 AM | message detail |
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I pretty much agree with Ultis sentiments on this one. Zero is way too badass to get beat by some coward like Luigi. --- WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you? |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/9/2006 7:34:04 AM | message detail |
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Zero dropped and his 2K5 value was legit (which he most likely dropped even more from). Theres no way this is all Luigis doing. --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 7:34:28 AM | message detail |
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Say what you will about Zero overratedness, 55% on Zero is nuts. Welcome to the near elite Mr. Luigi TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 7:35:46 AM | message detail |
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Ulti, shame on you. I thought you were above pointless whining. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Phediuk | Posted 10/9/2006 7:36:34 AM | message detail |
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No way in hell NSMB does anything meaningful. Mario characters reached
their saturation point a helluva long time ago. This is just more
evidence of the widespread Nintendo boost we've been seeing since last
year. --- "Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle." -Toad in Super Mario Bros. |
| Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/9/2006 7:38:04 AM | message detail |
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^ They why did Ganondorf, Kirby, and Yoshi all do worse than expected? --- Can't think of a good sig. |
| wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 7:38:59 AM | message detail |
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So this match proves that Zero was SFFed by Mario last year, I guess?
Doesnt get SFFed by the main character of the series he stars in but
gets pounded by LUIGI of all people. Man what a great contest. Imagine
if it had been a normal bracket... --- Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude! Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:41:00 AM | message detail |
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From BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 10/9/2006 10:35:46 AM #191 Ulti, shame on you. I thought you were above pointless whining. Not liking Luigi's character =/= caring about this poll, mister irony. See unlike most of the whiners around here, I have a life outside of this site. Don't lump me in with all of them. ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI |
| UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/9/2006 7:41:44 AM | message detail |
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From Phediuk Posted 10/9/2006 10:36:34 AM #192 No way in hell NSMB does anything meaningful. Mario characters reached their saturation point a helluva long time ago. This is just more evidence of the widespread Nintendo boost we've been seeing since last year. Which makes sense, but HOW in the world did Vincent beat Ganon despite being the bracket underdog and lower seed? ~*ST*~ --- Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest Now Playing: Disgaea 2, PW:AA, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 7:42:22 AM | message detail |
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No way in hell NSMB does anything meaningful. Mario characters
reached their saturation point a helluva long time ago. This is just
more evidence of the widespread Nintendo boost we've been seeing since
last year. And why would Nintendo to continue to boost? Maybe because, oh, I don't know, a relatively major Mario game was released on one of the site's most popular systems? --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 7:43:42 AM | message detail |
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They why did Ganondorf, Kirby, and Yoshi all do worse than expected? Yoshi and Kirby faced unknowns and Ganondorf was supposed to lose according to the stats... --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/9/2006 7:44:00 AM | message detail |
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From Blade Of Evils Bane Posted 10/9/2006 10:38:04 AM ^ They why did Ganondorf, Kirby, and Yoshi all do worse than expected? Because all of their opponents are potentially much stronger than we thought? I saw Riku's overperformance coming, I saw PoP being a midcarder coming and I knew there was a chance Vincent boosted. We won't even get a real value if Bowser "underperforms" on Leon because of RE4 getting the PS2 port. We won't have a good idea on Nintendo boosts unti at least round 2 with Zelda/Boss and Peach/Jill TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/9/2006 7:44:16 AM | message detail |
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In fact, if anything, Ganondorf did better than expected, as Vincent is most likely a nice bit stronger than last year thanks to DoC. --- "An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows." |