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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 382

Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:17:29 PM | message detail
Uh, when did I do that? Refresh my memory.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/9/2006 3:17:36 PM | message detail
"Seems to be the opposite to me. Too many people using this to somehow inexplicably link Zero and MM and seeing a Zero drop justifying their picks of Snake>MM or some such ridiculousness, as opposed to thinking Luigi just might have increased based on him being in the biggest game of the year so far."


But if you ignore last year Zero is near noble nine. Theres no way that Luigi could somehow gain that much strength in such a short time from one game.

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Can't think of a good sig.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:18:55 PM | message detail

Seems to be the opposite to me. Too many people using this to somehow inexplicably link Zero and MM and seeing a Zero drop justifying their picks of Snake>MM or some such ridiculousness, as opposed to thinking Luigi just might have increased based on him being in the biggest game of the year so far.


Because if Luigi boosts this much. Yoshi boosts this much, and this is what people expect to be an already underrated Yoshi. Now, Riku goes and gets 45% on him? How does he do it? KH2 boost of course! Now Tingle is a beast, and Sora is in contention for the championship. Excuse me while I laugh.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:19:20 PM | message detail
Uh, when did I do that? Refresh my memory.

My mistake, wrong guy!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:20:40 PM | message detail
EC, that logic doesn't work by your own prior argument that Samus = Seph 2k4. That makes a significantly stronger Riku, thus a diminished boost.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:21:33 PM | message detail
Because if Luigi boosts this much. Yoshi boosts this much, and this is what people expect to be an already underrated Yoshi. Now, Riku goes and gets 45% on him? How does he do it? KH2 boost of course! Now Tingle is a beast, and Sora is in contention for the championship. Excuse me while I laugh.

Luigi and Yoshi are not tied together. If you'll notice I said Luigi was in the biggest game of the year so far (except KH2), now unless there's some cheat I don't know about, Yoshi isn't.

And yes, the KH2 boost is huge, since KH2 got more people involved in the story of the actual game, as opposed to being a "oh look theres some final fantasy characters and disney let's buy this" game like its predecessor. That's why I say Axel and Riku far overperfromed.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:21:44 PM | message detail
EC, that logic doesn't work by your own prior argument that Samus = Seph 2k4. That makes a significantly stronger Riku, thus a diminished boost.

Uh yeah, I gave up on that one after Vincent/Ganon.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:22:12 PM | message detail
Luigi – 35.32%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%


JUSTICE !!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:23:56 PM | message detail
Why is no one willing to accept the possibility that Zero dropped in strength from last year and Mario DIDN'T SFF him?

Err, we know that Mario didn't SFF Zero after seeing the results of this match. What we're seeing here is Luigi boosting some from NSMB and Zero dropping some in all likelihood. But, of course, we cannot say for certain.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:24:15 PM | message detail
Uh yeah, I gave up on that one after Vincent/Ganon.

Assuming no SFF for Samus, no Devil Division overrating, and a healthy AC/DoC boost for Vincent, it falls right in line.

Seriously, the idea of Samus significantly SFFing Ganon has always been sketchy at best. And after the humilation by Nidoran F, I question it more and more.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:24:30 PM | message detail
Luigi and Yoshi are not tied together. If you'll notice I said Luigi was in the biggest game of the year so far (except KH2), now unless there's some cheat I don't know about, Yoshi isn't.

So you actually think it's the role that gives him the boost? Sorry, but who the hell DOESN'T know who Luigi is? It's not like he suddenly does something in that game he's never done before. It's the same old stuff. If you believe the size of the role boosting a character that well known, with I don't know how many games under his belt... then I don't know what to say.

And yes, the KH2 boost is huge, since KH2 got more people involved in the story of the actual game, as opposed to being a "oh look theres some final fantasy characters and disney let's buy this" game like its predecessor. That's why I say Axel and Riku far overperfromed.

So Tingle is strong, and Sora's taking the male bracket?

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:25:30 PM | message detail
Samus can't SFF anything.

Mega Man>Samus in the finals looking more and more likely!! Now if only Mega Man could show some strength against Ryu next round, I'd be even more confident.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:26:17 PM | message detail
Assuming no SFF for Samus, no Devil Division overrating, and a healthy AC/DoC boost for Vincent, it falls right in line.

Seriously, the idea of Samus significantly SFFing Ganon has always been sketchy at best. And after the humilation by Nidoran F, I question it more and more.


I never thought Samus SFFed Ganon, it was pure Mario/Samus funky business I was banking on. And yeah, I think the DD is fine, so that's 2/3, but I'll be damned if Vincent gets a healthy boost this year. 1% max in my mind, though I'd welcome it with open arms, as it puts Samus back into kicking ass mode, and Ganon > Bowser is a lock!


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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
KingBartz | Posted 10/9/2006 3:29:05 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:29:45 PM | message detail
Mario had Super Mario Sunshine under his belt, and he still only managed 37% on Link, and he didn't dip in popularity when he had no recent games. Why should NSMB be any different? By your logic, you might as well say that Mario will only go up in popularity by a new game, but never go down...

Considering that match very likely had SFF, I'm not sure how it's only 37% against the strongest character in these contests. The idea that Mario cannot get boosts from his big -- yes, folks, NSMB is a BIG game -- games, then what in the world would it take for Mario to increase? Nothing changes the opinion of these characters for people. Characters don't even need a reason to increase or decrease from year to year, so why it is so farfetched that Mario, Luigi, and Bowser wouldn't benefit from the biggest Mario game since 2002 is beyond me.

Hell, the boost in 2005, while labeled a "Nintendo Boost," always looked the biggest beneficiaries of that boost were Mario characters. As it so happened, the DS released that year with Super Mario 64 DS, where Yoshi and Luigi, along with Mario, were playable characters. Shocking, really.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:29:50 PM | message detail
So you actually think it's the role that gives him the boost? Sorry, but who the hell DOESN'T know who Luigi is? It's not like he suddenly does something in that game he's never done before. It's the same old stuff. If you believe the size of the role boosting a character that well known, with I don't know how many games under his belt... then I don't know what to say.

It's Luigi's first playable platformer since SMB2 (I can't possibly count Luigi's Mansion). Yoshi wasn't even in the game. Of course Luigi gets more of a boost, it's simple logic to me anyway. It's like saying if Luigi were reduced from a charcter in SSB to a trophy in SSBM he would've benifited just as much from the Nintendo boost last year, just seems irrational to me.

So Tingle is strong, and Sora's taking the male bracket?

lol hyperbole. Sora will give MM a scare (breaking 43 or so), but it won't be anything to fear. And Sora+KH is kind of like MC when it comes to that kind of stuff, KH couldn't even blow out Harvest Moon in the series contest, Sora couldn't even stomp Hitman!
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
KingBartz | Posted 10/9/2006 3:30:12 PM | message detail
(3) Kirby
(6) The Prince of Persia

(2) Master Chief
(7) Zero

(3) Auron
(6) Alucard

(2) Luigi
(7) Sub-Zero

Wouldt this have made for a better set-up?

Go ahead, predict it.

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I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 26/27 Today's upset special: Luigi
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:31:41 PM | message detail
Kirby > Zero, Auron > Luigi. I'll be damned if Zero loses to MC, and 46% on Ganon + KH2 ain't making me scared for Auron.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:32:01 PM | message detail
And before anyone tries to jump on me by saying I think SM64 DS resulted in the entire boost in 2005, I am saying no such thing. I am saying, however, that there is a reason why Mario characters were the biggest beneficiaries of the boost year -- and it has to do with that game.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
PotD_Ninja | Posted 10/9/2006 3:32:40 PM | message detail
>_>
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ATTN: Mods. Stop suspending my accounts for stupid reasons or I will come.
something-TofuOfDoom
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/9/2006 3:33:57 PM | message detail
(3) Kirby
(6) The Prince of Persia

(2) Master Chief
(7) Zero

(3) Auron
(6) Alucard

(2) Luigi
(7) Sub-Zero

Kirby
Zero

Auron
Luigi

Zero
Auron

Auron

As much as I love Luigi, I can't take him over Auron
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
KingBartz | Posted 10/9/2006 3:34:41 PM | message detail
But if Crono v. MC 2005 is legit(which it just might be), and there was no SFF in Mario vs. Zero, than the match might be closer than we think.

38% on crono vs. 37% on Mario? Two matches with bizzare results...'

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I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 26/27 Today's upset special: Luigi
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:35:01 PM | message detail
Kirby
Zero
Auron
Luigi

Kirby
Auron

Auron

Auron versus Kirby might have been iffy IF KHII hadnt been released. Auron wins comfortably with it.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
KingBartz | Posted 10/9/2006 3:35:30 PM | message detail
those are two seperate fourpacks <_<;;

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I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 26/27 Today's upset special: Luigi
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:35:31 PM | message detail
It's Luigi's first playable platformer since SMB2 (I can't possibly count Luigi's Mansion). Yoshi wasn't even in the game. Of course Luigi gets more of a boost, it's simple logic to me anyway. It's like saying if Luigi were reduced from a charcter in SSB to a trophy in SSBM he would've benifited just as much from the Nintendo boost last year, just seems irrational to me.

Why wouldn't you count LM? Everyone makes that game out to be far worse than it was. Either way, it sold a million +, Luigi was the actual main character of the game, and it gave him more personality than NSMB could have ever hoped to do. Hell I'd say M&L games would give Luigi a bigger boost than NSMB, not that they would be of any significance, but I'd give them credit before NSMB... and since when is the Nintendo boost a result of SSBM?

lol hyperbole. Sora will give MM a scare (breaking 43 or so), but it won't be anything to fear. And Sora+KH is kind of like MC when it comes to that kind of stuff, KH couldn't even blow out Harvest Moon in the series contest, Sora couldn't even stomp Hitman!

Not really, if we're talking about the kind of boost you're talking about KH2 characters getting, then it Sora should be rocketing up, and that's with Riku having a smaller role than the first, and Sora being 20 times better.... and people seriously need to stop underrating Agent 47. Just because he wore a black suit, and was a badass doesn't mean he was ever going to be a neo-tanner, everyone blew that WAY out of proportion, he has every reason to be as strong as his match with Sora showed.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:36:15 PM | message detail
(3) Kirby
(7) Zero

(3) Auron
(2) Luigi


Given the possibility that Ganon very likely was much higher than indicated last year combined with Kingdom Hearts II makes me feel pretty good about picking Auron here.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:37:24 PM | message detail
Oh sry, then Auron and Kirby. Auron beats Kirby though so thats just some extra opinion right there.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:37:37 PM | message detail
Tanner was *never* a badass. Look at these two pictures:

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=2&pos=15

http://www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=6&pos=11

47 was never going to be on the level of Tanner by picture alone.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/9/2006 3:37:54 PM | message detail
(3) Kirby
(6) The Prince of Persia

(2) Master Chief
(7) Zero

(3) Auron
(6) Alucard

(2) Luigi
(7) Sub-Zero

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(3) Kirby
(7) Zero

(3) Auron
(2) Luigi

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(3) Kirby
(3) Auron

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(3) Auron

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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:38:26 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:41:18 PM | message detail
Are we forgetting Partners in Time? Mediocre game IMO but Luigi is definitely the best and most humorous character in the game. PoT is also a million + seller in the hottest system in town to boot. I cant believe I forgot his role in this, in fact I didnt see it mentioned once to help justify the Luigi boost.
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:42:18 PM | message detail
Are we forgetting Partners in Time? Mediocre game IMO but Luigi is definitely the best and most humorous character in the game. PoT is also a million + seller in the hottest system in town to boot. I cant believe I forgot his role in this, in fact I didnt see it mentioned once to help justify the Luigi boost.

Don't look 6 posts up or anything!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Kratos_42 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:44:58 PM | message detail
HEY! Everybody's favorite reporter in PiT is the best characer in it. Anything else is a lie.
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He wields the blade of a fallen hero, but now he is the hero, and it is the others who fall. He is rising.
GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:45:07 PM | message detail
Luigi should be Prime minister.
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*hides in a box*
>_>~~~SMBX2J[SPARE ROOM]>_>~~~Maviss Coincidence?!?!
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2006 3:46:42 PM | message detail
Catching up on the topic...

1. Just because there's no SFF in a match doesn't mean that two characters don't share the same fanbase. In a case like MM and Zero, or Cloud and Sephiroth, it just means that the fanbase is close to equally split.

2. People need to stop using last year's matches. We're not looking at 2k4 Zero anymore, we're not looking at 2k5 Luigi anymore, and we're not looking at 2k5 Kirby anymore. This is the Kirby who got 62% on Prince of Persia, not the Kirby who got 48% on Bowser. Likewise, this is the Luigi who got 54% on Zero, not the Luigi that Tifa got 54% on.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:47:56 PM | message detail


2. People need to stop using last year's matches. We're not looking at 2k4 Zero anymore, we're not looking at 2k5 Luigi anymore, and we're not looking at 2k5 Kirby anymore. This is the Kirby who got 62% on Prince of Persia, not the Kirby who got 48% on Bowser. Likewise, this is the Luigi who got 54% on Zero, not the Luigi that Tifa got 54% on.


Oh man, you're so right, let's totally stop using stats for future contests. Gordon > Link FTW.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 3:48:41 PM | message detail
hey, I remember people doing that last year -- remember when Tifa was winning the main bracket?
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:49:48 PM | message detail
Likewise, this is the Luigi who got 54% on Zero, not the Luigi that Tifa got 54% on.

Likewise, this is the Zero who got 46% on Luigi, not the Zero that Sonic got 53% on.

It works both ways.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:50:28 PM | message detail
Hell I'd say M&L games would give Luigi a bigger boost than NSMB,

And I'd say you're out of your damn mind, but what else is new!!

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:50:52 PM | message detail
>_>; Well yours is the first post I've seen mentioning it then. You want a footnote? Maybe a bibliographical mention?

Anyways, PoT is one big, overlooked (until now) reason for Luigi to boost. The RPGs have have characterized Luigi thus possibly giving players a better connection with him.

Question: How far do you think Zero has fallen, as a guess, since we wont have any hard stats to work with until the Kirby and Sonic matches?
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:51:53 PM | message detail
>_>; Well yours is the first post I've seen mentioning it then. You want a footnote? Maybe a bibliographical mention?

No, but I would like you to start calling it PiT instead of PoT.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/9/2006 3:52:27 PM | message detail


And I'd say you're out of your damn mind, but what else is new!!


I'm only out of my damn mind for believing you so many times!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:53:17 PM | message detail
Gordon > Link FTW.

I dont even want to know what happens to the universe if that ever occured!

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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
MyWorldIsZelda | Posted 10/9/2006 3:53:24 PM | message detail
I'm only out of my damn mind for believing you so many times!

You only listen because it makes so much sense. Except here, where you make no sense! Biggest game of the year doing nothing? lol kay

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 3:54:16 PM | message detail
did you just call NSMB the biggest game of the year? when you haven't mentioned it prior?

are you on the Bowser > Crono bandwagon yet?
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/9/2006 3:54:59 PM | message detail
He's been on that bandwagon for HOURS now!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/9/2006 3:55:19 PM | message detail
Another note on Kirby: it's entirely possible that Kirby was SSB/M-reliant in 2k2. However, I sincerely doubt that Kirby's boosts since then are because of SSBM. Kirby's had four of his five best-selling games come out since 2k2, including his very best-selling two.

Oh man, you're so right, let's totally stop using stats for future contests. Gordon > Link FTW.

Well, obviously they have some use, but people are acting like things can't change with regard to Kirby's strength, which is frustrating.

Likewise, this is the Zero who got 46% on Luigi, not the Zero that Sonic got 53% on.

It works both ways.


I know, I know. Zero's clearly far weaker now than he is then, just as Sonic and Luigi are far stronger.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
wavedash101 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:56:10 PM | message detail
Accidental mistype EC. Nothing to get alarmed about. Unless it makes my entire post illegible somehow...
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Our shields cannot withstand wavedashing of this magnitude!
Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
transience | Posted 10/9/2006 3:56:26 PM | message detail
Jay Solano - making Carmen Sandiego and company look like wannabes.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/9/2006 3:56:31 PM | message detail
*Rubs nipples*
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*hides in a box*
>_>~~~SMBX2J[SPARE ROOM]>_>~~~Maviss Coincidence?!?!