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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 381

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therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 1:35:12 PM | message detail

Hmmm, looking again I wonder if Ceej will delay the sprite round again. He potentially could have:

Rikku
Tifa
Jill
Yuna
Viewtiful Dante
Auron

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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 1:35:33 PM | message detail

failure
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2006 1:39:14 PM | message detail

It's not like that's stopped Cloud, Sephiroth, Aeris, Squall, Auron, or Vincent before though.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....

creativename | Posted 10/8/2006 1:40:37 PM | message detail

I must say that this today makes me a bit more confident in Zero>Kirby. Don't know if it should though, as we didn't know nothing about PoP.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 1:41:02 PM | message detail

Yeah, but I don't think Ceej felt comfortable doing that and wanted to stick with true sprites. Sephiroth/Auron was a crappy ass picture no matter how you look at it. I'm pretty sure that's why he delayed the sprite round last year instead of some cheap improvisations.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/8/2006 1:41:03 PM | message detail

It makes me feel more confident in Luigi over Zero.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

creativename | Posted 10/8/2006 1:41:53 PM | message detail

But what's with these people now talking about Kratos 2k5 being Prince's floor? Easy as hell to say that this morning when Prince was getting 37%. Where were these people before the match? And yet now they're all vocal and stuff? OK :)
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2006 1:43:00 PM | message detail

He does it when there are only a few, but we are looking up to 7 characters that don't really have a sprite.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush

creativename | Posted 10/8/2006 1:43:02 PM | message detail

I really don't think Luigi can beat Zero.
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transience | Posted 10/8/2006 1:43:13 PM | message detail

heh, cn just said what I've been thinking. I didn't hear a single person claim the Prince would have 26%ish strength until today, when they all came out of the woodwork.

"see, I told you!"
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 1:46:37 PM | message detail

There are no floors or ceilings... PoP has reason to be stronger or weaker than Kratos.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/8/2006 1:47:58 PM | message detail

Yeah, The Prince can be pretty much any strength.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Master Moltar | Posted 10/8/2006 2:01:48 PM | message detail

*pegs Prince as worth 49.99% on Base Link*
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Kirby vs. The Prince - Bracket: Kirby - Vote: Kirby (24/26)

Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/8/2006 2:12:10 PM | message detail

*pegs Prince as worth 49.99% on Base Link*

I wouldn't be shocked.
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2006 2:20:23 PM | message detail

Hey guys...

...QUICK WITHOUT THINKING: Prince of Persia or Ramza?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 2:21:08 PM | message detail

POP.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

wavedash101 | Posted 10/8/2006 2:22:32 PM | message detail

Ramza...for no real reason what so ever.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 2:23:41 PM | message detail

Prince of Persia.

What has Ramza done for me lately???
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 2:23:58 PM | message detail

heh, cn just said what I've been thinking. I didn't hear a single person claim the Prince would have 26%ish strength until today, when they all came out of the woodwork.

"see, I told you!"

*ahem*

I'm pretty sure I called 62% for Kirby!

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Adept of Aiur | Posted 10/8/2006 2:24:08 PM | message detail

...QUICK WITHOUT THINKING: Prince of Persia or Ramza?

PoP
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"An intellectual is a man who takes more words than necessary to tell more than he knows."

Gaddswell | Posted 10/8/2006 2:43:35 PM | message detail

Kirby seems to have finally stoped bleeding percentage. He's been at 61.99%-62% for the past 10 updates.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/8/2006 2:44:01 PM | message detail

...QUICK WITHOUT THINKING: Prince of Persia or Ramza?

Prince of Persia.

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Master Moltar | Posted 10/8/2006 2:57:57 PM | message detail

Draco1214 | Posted 10/8/2006 3:01:44 PM | message detail

charmander6000 | Posted 10/8/2006 3:05:39 PM | message detail

In my analysis I had PoP's range anywhere from 60%-75% just because I had no clue to where he'll rank.
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AmazingKirby | Posted 10/8/2006 3:06:33 PM | message detail

Rikku would never struggle with some lame Prince!
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:10:34 PM | message detail

Hmm, I guess Prince being at around 26.5% on BL around Rikku (How does Prince getting 45% on Ryu sound?) would be the best case scenario here, since it means Kirby 2k5 is legit.

If Kirby = Zero 2K5, then Prince is a little about Diablo (24.22%, and Prince would get around 32% on Sonic).

And then it only gets worse from there. I'm hoping for the former...

Worst case scenario Kirby's true 2K5 value is 1% above Zero's 2K5 value. Whether or not Zero's underrated is another story, plus 1% difference in a match is hardly a lock, anything can happen when you're that close, though I think you have to favor the one above (and I do). I personally think Luigi/Zero is going to be closer than Zero/Luigi vs. Kirby. If Zero somehow manages to blowout Luigi, like 53%+, I'll say there's gonna be a good match with Kirby. Either way, no one is a lock to win it all, though I don't see any way that Kirby isn't the huge favorite right now.

Anyway, this post was more to say that PoP's floor in my mind is definitely higher than 24.22%

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 3:13:28 PM | message detail

*ahem*

I'm pretty sure I called 62% for Kirby!

you don't count! if Jay Solano made the field, I would have called for 100%!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:13:43 PM | message detail

I think this match shows some serious Kirby weakness here. As much as I love the Prince, I just can't see him being that much stronger than Kratos 2005 (whatever his adjusted value is through Sora 2004), if at all

No one is saying that Prince is that much stronger than Kratos (though I would definitely not expect that to be the case, it wouldn't be outrageous), the highest projections are pretty much putting him on the same level as Kratos.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:14:04 PM | message detail

you don't count! if Jay Solano made the field, I would have called for 100%!

And you would've been right!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids

MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2006 3:15:33 PM | message detail

Prince or Ness?
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Kirby vs. Prince of Persia / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby(25/26)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Zero / Vote: .. Still thinking

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 3:17:38 PM | message detail

based on Ryu and Kirby's 2k5 values, Prince is projected to get 51.29% on Kratos.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:21:44 PM | message detail

based on Ryu and Kirby's 2k5 values, Prince is projected to get 51.29% on Kratos.

Which isn't that much stronger than Kratos at all. The main problem I had with Draco's statement is that he was saying that people are calling PoP to have a huge advantage over Kratos. And really, when you think about it, PoP has plenty of reasons to be > Kratos. He has a number of games more than Kratos, I say "number of games" because I can't count how many more. Has been around since before the NES, has 3 games this gen as opposed to one, they're on 4 systems (hello there PC!), as opposed to 1, the game has his name in it, and to top it all off, SoT >>>>> GoW. >_>

Last year I take PoP > Kratos. This year it's a lot harder of a decision, though I'd probably take PoP because I couldn't live with myself if I took Kratos and The Prince won.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 3:24:10 PM | message detail

oh, I still take Kratos over the Prince. I just didn't expect it to even be debatable. I was completely wrong about the Prince. there's also the possibility that Ryu is underrated and Kirby is overrated.. but again, we really have zero idea whatsoever.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:29:16 PM | message detail

Well at least you weren't as horribly wrong as Mr. "LOL LLOYD IRVING >>> PRINCE, KIRBY WITH 75%" Crazy Boy Lopen.

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Portugal. The Man
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Big Bob | Posted 10/8/2006 3:34:59 PM | message detail

I think the winner of this fourpack will be up in the air until it actually happens in round 2. We don't know how strong the Prince is, and Kirby may or may not be overrated.

I'd also say Dante's performance against Ryu shows that Zero may not have been SFF'd last year. Adding to that, we just had New Super Mario Bros, which can only help Luigi.
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PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/8/2006 3:40:16 PM | message detail

I took Luigi > Zero simply because I never bought Zero being underrated in the stats, not for a second. Still Zero ranks higher than Luigi, but it's by such a small amount I ignored it and went with my first instinct. As for Kirby, I'm one of the biggest believers in him being overrated, I just don't think it's quite large enough to put him on Zero's level, though anything's possible. If Luigi beats Zero, I'm completely confident in Kirby winning, if Zero beats Luigi by a nice amount, I get scurred.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids

Draco1214 | Posted 10/8/2006 3:44:48 PM | message detail

I just can't see Zero losing that match, even though I acknowledge that Luigi has a good chance. I mean...it's Zero. This is the guy who's known for the noble nine sweat, and now he's going to lose to Luigi?
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Character Battle V Score - 25/26 points
Current Prediction - Kirby vs. The Prince of Persia

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 3:51:52 PM | message detail

the thing about Luigi that drives me nuts is that he just seems like he should be strong. he's friggin' Luigi! but he's never really had contest success and last year was the first year he even resembled a strong character.. and even then, he's lower than Zero in the stats. you could also argue that since Mario beat Zero down that Luigi potentially could.. but Luigi lost head to head to a dinosaur, so I can't see him doing that either. I'll be pretty surprised if he pulls out the win.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/8/2006 3:54:30 PM | message detail

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 3:59:24 PM | message detail

you're talking about Zero? I don't really believe in Mario/Zero SFF, though I guess it's possible. it just looks like a Zero decline to me. regardless, he's still stronger than Luigi's max value and I see no reason for him to dip any further.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/8/2006 4:00:18 PM | message detail

EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/8/2006 4:01:35 PM | message detail

you're talking about Zero? I don't really believe in Mario/Zero SFF, though I guess it's possible. it just looks like a Zero decline to me. regardless, he's still stronger than Luigi's max value and I see no reason for him to dip any further.

Which is why I think Zero/Luigi will be close either way, and Zero should be the favorite, but when you're projected to win a match 51-49, I'm going with my gut.

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I'm so hardcore.

transience | Posted 10/8/2006 4:03:19 PM | message detail

Put Luigi and Yoshi up against 5 random Non-Mario opponents, and I'll bet my left nut Luigi does better on every single one.

possible, but I was talking about the idea of Luigi SFFing Zero if you bought into the idea that Mario did. if there was SFF to be had, I think it goes Zero's way.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 4:07:02 PM | message detail

the thing about Luigi that drives me nuts is that he just seems like he should be strong. he's friggin' Luigi! but he's never really had contest success and last year was the first year he even resembled a strong character.. and even then, he's lower than Zero in the stats. you could also argue that since Mario beat Zero down that Luigi potentially could.. but Luigi lost head to head to a dinosaur, so I can't see him doing that either. I'll be pretty surprised if he pulls out the win.

Yeah, he came into the contest as a potential Samus challenger and bombed horribly. Luigi just isn't as popular as everyone would like to think he should be. I don't buy the argument of "Mario beat down Zero, so should Luigi" either. As I said before, any advantage that Luigi has over Zero is already shown through Mario/Zero and Luigi looked as strong as he could, with Sonic giving Mega Man a match and Luigi keeping up with Tifa... and Zero still ended up stronger.

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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/8/2006 4:23:21 PM | message detail

This match is getting some pretty awesome votals.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 4:25:14 PM | message detail

But why is he known as that? In 2K3 he's not exactly a noble 9 buster... and in 2K4 he's adjusted up because MM/Link, and he possibly gets some rSFF on MM. Snake does horrifically in 2K4, I mean friggin' frog competes with him. Frog. That's the only time he's been above a nobler in the stats, and he's potentially overrated.

It's not like Mega Man's adjustment from MM/Link was unwarranted. Mega Man did verify that. And I don't see how Zero is overrated in 2k4. He got exactly what he was supposed to on Tommy Vercetti, and then based on matchups with Tommy Vercetti, he got exactly what he was supposed to against Mega Man. Zero ranking above Snake in the x-stats isn't his fault. Snake just bombed and got his face-blasted against Mega Man. That was a fluke match for Snake.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2006 4:36:38 PM | message detail

Put Luigi and Yoshi up against 5 random Non-Mario opponents, and I'll bet my left nut Luigi does better on every single one.

We can't do five yet, obviously, but I can give you one right now:

2k4: Pac-Man gets 32.27% on Luigi
2k5: Pac-Man gets 27.17% on Yoshi

Now, with that said, I'm sure you mean in a match without anomalies, and I agree with you on that.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....

EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/8/2006 4:37:17 PM | message detail

But you don't have a left nut to bet... :(

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I'm so hardcore.

GavHarrison316 | Posted 10/8/2006 4:37:32 PM | message detail

>_>
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*hides in a box*
>_>~~~SMBX2J[SPARE ROOM]>_>~~~Maviss Coincidence?!?!

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