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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 380

KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:46:55 PM | message detail
156 perfects
7 zeros
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
Super Luigi | Posted 10/7/2006 5:47:48 PM | message detail
Kirby with 70% tomorrow. <_>
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Currently playing : Star Fox Command(DS),New Super Mario Bros(DS),Mario vs DK 2 :March of the Minis(DS).
redrocket | Posted 10/7/2006 5:48:27 PM | message detail
Ganondorf = Turd of the Round?

More like Tidus.
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:48:48 PM | message detail
Heh. I just noticed that Riku got about 100 more votes than Kairi did.
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
_Seer_ | Posted 10/7/2006 5:49:59 PM | message detail
Hey guys, can Vincent beat Sonic?
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DEFENCE, DEFENCE
Seeraamaazu
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:50:01 PM | message detail
Ganondorf = Turd of the Round?

Gotta reserve that honor for Master Chief when Sub-Zero beats him.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:50:34 PM | message detail
Can he? I won't say it's impossible, but his odds are low.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2006 5:54:17 PM | message detail
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%


Two of my favorite characters close in strength, I love it.
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 22/24, Next= Sonic, Vincent, Kirby, Zero
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/7/2006 5:54:40 PM | message detail
Ganondorf = Turd of the Round?

More like Zero when he gets exposed in two days.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:54:43 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero beating Master Chief is almost unthinkable. Sub-Zero would struggle to get 42% on donkey kong, but people think he can win against the X-box fan machine?
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2006 5:56:14 PM | message detail
393 perfects
20 zeroes


51 perfects,
4 zeroes
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 22/24, Next= Sonic, Vincent, Kirby, Zero
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 5:56:41 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero would struggle to get 42% on donkey kong

.. Why would he struggle to get 42%?
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:57:38 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero would struggle to get 42% on donkey kong, but people think he can win against the X-box fan machine?

You think way too highly of Donkey Kong if you believe that.

You know, I was just looking at Kirby's previous trends. I was expecting to find a dominant board vote, but...he doesn't have one. That surprised me. But he always loses both night votes and wins the day vote.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 6:00:13 PM | message detail
Sub-Zero would probably get a bit more than 42%, but I certainly don't even think about who to take in that match. Donkey Kong wins without trouble there.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:00:54 PM | message detail
What has DK ever done to make you think he can beat anyone with strength without trouble?
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:03:23 PM | message detail
Vincent Valentine's percentage in the last hour - 54.72%
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:03:41 PM | message detail
What's the easiest way to get the percentage of the last hour?
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:04:02 PM | message detail
Just look one post up.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:04:42 PM | message detail
Yeah, but what if I wanted to find out on my own? Just add them all up?
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:05:06 PM | message detail
Divide Vincent's votes in the last hour by the total votes received.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 6:07:29 PM | message detail
How can we compare Sub-Zero to anyone but other mortal kombat characters? Scorpion is fodderific now, and even if Sub-Zero is +5% from Scorpion on BL, he still jobs to Donkey Kong.
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
RPGuy96 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:10:22 PM | message detail
Or you could make a spreadsheet that does it for you based on cn's updater. But that would be silly.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:11:04 PM | message detail
Don't listen to RPGuy. That's needlessly complicated and tedious!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:11:58 PM | message detail
Heh, okay, the tedious way. =(
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:13:18 PM | message detail
Wait, Scorpion is fodder? When was he fodder? I'd imagine him returning to his 2k3 levels thanks to these vote totals.

Oh, and don't forget that new MK game comes out a few days before the match.
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 6:13:48 PM | message detail
(using 2005 DK vs 2004 scorpion)

04 vs 04 is a little closer, but how much stronger can Sub-zero be?
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/7/2006 6:13:53 PM | message detail
There really wasn't that much whining today all things considered. I guess this was a nice breath of fresh air after the Nintendo dominance we've been seeing.


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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:14:21 PM | message detail
using 2005 DK

LOL Master Chief
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 6:14:40 PM | message detail
Oh, and don't forget that new MK game comes out a few days before the match.

That's going to amount to essentially nothing too.

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"Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!"
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 6:15:53 PM | message detail
Scorpion is now projected to get >20% on BL. That would be fodder.
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:17:52 PM | message detail
I think he's higher than 20% on BL.. wasn't Auron behind Sephiroth?
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 6:18:09 PM | message detail
How do we know that MC just wasn't at the same level as DK(prolly a little stronger), but got adujsted 38% on Crono?
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:19:16 PM | message detail
How do we know that MC just wasn't at the same level as DK(prolly a little stronger), but got adujsted 38% on Crono?

I don't even know what you're trying to say, but you can't take DK's 2005 ranking at face value because the Chief outdid himself against Crono.

And yes, Scorpion was behind Sephy/Auron SFF.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:19:25 PM | message detail
Now that I think about it, Scorpion should be over the fodderline because I would take him over Pac-Man again.
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 6:21:22 PM | message detail
Scorpion is not fodder by any stretch of the imagination, unless you want to say Donkey Kong is fodder. The two have been *very* comparable over the years. And Scorpion is behind a potentially underrated Auron in 2004. I don't think he's slipped much, if at all, and if Subby is significantly stronger Master Chief will likely have his hands full come his match.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 6:28:42 PM | message detail
Anyone know Moltar's email?

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I love bananas.
Who Cares? | Posted 10/7/2006 6:31:43 PM | message detail
MasterMoltar@gmail.com
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 3 days until Tales of the Abyss*
RevolverAk47 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:33:42 PM | message detail
Really, what is the surprise in this match? VV at the moment is doing a bit less actually then the LOLxstats. He will probably do a bit better then them by end, but thats not positive.
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"A cornered fox is more dangerous than a jackal." - Gray Fox
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:34:50 PM | message detail
he's only .4% away from what the stats say.. don't look at them to the exact percent.
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 6:35:17 PM | message detail
Really, what is the surprise in this match? VV at the moment is doing a bit less actually then the LOLxstats. He will probably do a bit better then them by end, but thats not positive.

That Ganon is underrated last year, and DoC actually gave Vincent a noticable boost. That's my story and I'm sticking to it dammit!

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I love bananas.
dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 6:35:45 PM | message detail
Ganon's always been the second of the noble nine breaking duo; he took prominence after Magus slumped last year and thus got a lot of hype. Naturally, the final death of this duo which lasted since 2k3 would be surprising to many people.
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z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT!
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/7/2006 6:38:35 PM | message detail
Ganon's votes appear to be dropping off now. Vincent should be able to hit 52.5 pretty easily.

Would have preferred 53%+ for my Vincent over Sonic pick, but I still think he has reasonable shot there.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:43:32 PM | message detail
What has DK ever done to make you think he can beat anyone with strength without trouble?

He got 65% on Sam Fisher, close to what Magus managed. Sam has several games out now, so Sam probably didn't weaken much...he might've gotten stronger, even. Mario characters boosted since 2K4...DK is no exception.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
Mumei | Posted 10/7/2006 6:43:59 PM | message detail
Last year the kid got genuinely upset at me for what I had said on the day Vincent beat Kerrigan.

I asked you to tone it down. When you didn't, I said you were being petulant. I've long since gotten over it. You still whine about it. And what's more, you went on AIM that day to rage at me about how I was in the wrong, because you had taken so much "abuse" from people who disagreed with you.

Why don't you, I don't know, forgive and forget? I have no idea why you try to hold onto a grudge like this.

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"I believe that words uttered in passion contain a greater living truth than do those words which express thoughts rationally conceived"- Sensei, "Kokoro"
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 6:47:04 PM | message detail
He got 65% on Sam Fisher, close to what Magus managed.

Sam Fisher's pathetic performance in 2004 doesn't lead me to believe that what DK did was worth very much. Looking at how CATS performed against Sonic, that seemed to be more accurate than what Sam did against Magus.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:47:23 PM | message detail
Match XXVII: (3) Kirby vs. (6) The Prince of Persia

Contest History

Kirby


Summer 2002
Lost to Jill Valentine, 46.66% - 53.34%
Ranked: 17th

Summer 2003
Defeated Ramza, 57.66% - 42.34%
Lost to Alucard Tepes, 47.79% - 52.21%
Ranked: 25th

Summer 2004
Defeated Kain, 64.65% - 35.35%
Lost to Squall Leonhart, 44.99% - 55.01%
Ranked: 30th

Summer 2005
Defeated Cecil Harvey, 75.21% - 24.79%
Defeated Tidus, 57.65% - 42.35%
Lost to Bowser, 47.88% - 52.12%
Ranked: 12th

The Prince of Persia

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Kirby is from the Kirby series. During the earlier contests Kirby has always been a mid character, usually winning a match and then losing in round 2. Last year because of the Nintendo boost Kirby boosted really high and is now a near elite, but because of this huge boost people question if his 2k5 numbers are legit. PoP is from The Prince of Persia series. He was one of the Nomination Rally characters and the board loves him, but does he stand a chance against Kirby?

How strong PoP is still in question, but what we do know is that Kirby shouldn’t have much of a problem beating him, even if we were using his 2k4 numbers I don’t see Kirby losing this match. The thing that the board is watching out for is if whether or not Kirby was overrated from last year. There are two matches where Kirby could be overrated from, Bowser/Kirby and Snake/Bowser or a combination of the two. People think Kirby overperformed in Bowser/Kirby because he got too close for the board’s liking, so it must be wrong. The only weird thing that happened in that match was the surprising low vote totals, but really I don’t see any reason for people to think that the match was wrong. Though I can see why people may think Kirby was overrated through Bowser in Snake/Bowser. The match occurred during the sprite round, which due to the lack of good Snake sprites Snake usually gets screwed in that round, but how much does the picture matter if it is between two well known characters?

How strong or weak Kirby is wouldn’t really matter in this match. I can see PoP rank in a lot of different places in the stats. For all we know Kirby could struggle to break 60% or easily triple him. As for me I think a doubling is possible, but Kirby will fall just short of that percent.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Kirby over The Prince of Persia

charmander6000’s Prediction: Kirby wins, 65.73% - 34.27%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2006 7:00:20 PM | message detail
Fedor Emelianenko would **** Vincent up.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 7:21:46 PM | message detail
but you can't take DK's 2005 ranking at face value because the Chief outdid himself against Crono.

How can we know Chief overperfomed against Crono? Because CATS overperformed to Chief? Chief cannot blow out opponents. Ever. However, that doesn't mean he's weaker. Sora has that same problem, but to a lesser degree. Halo 2 boost must have done something for MC, but it was difficult to tell in 05.

We get to see that this round.

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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 7:46:43 PM | message detail
Wow, Vincent sure has increased his lead nicely since I left!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 7:50:43 PM | message detail
61.64% update for Vinny!
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna