GameFAQs Contests
Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 380
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 3:12:53 PM | message detail |
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I was kind of hoping Ganon would win, not because of my bracket, but
because it would've made all the "OMG VINCENT WINNING AT HIS TYPICAL
BEST TIME BY 200 VOTES! THIS IS SO OVER" people look like a bunch of
asshats. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 3:18:10 PM | message detail |
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Instead, it makes those who said "Vincent is barely winning! Ganondorf
will wreak havoc with the morning vote and win!" look silly. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/7/2006 3:20:12 PM | message detail |
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Not sure if there is one and I'm just missing it, but Ulti or Ngamer, can one of you make the next guru topic? --- Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest. |
| XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 3:21:50 PM | message detail |
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My oracle pick looks damn sexy right about now. Oh, and I won't be making any decisions about Luigi/Zero vs. Kirby until Monday. BOLD PREDICTION WHICH IS SO WRONG IT'S NOT EVEN FUNNY UT OH WELL IT'S NICE TO DREAM: Prince gets 45% on Kirby and the board goes crazy. --- http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz AC2K6 Score: 25/25 Today:Sonic |
| HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2006 3:30:17 PM | message detail |
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Does anybody think Vincent will have even, say, 40% of the brackets?
Considering Ganon was decent enough at bracket-support before the
Villain Contest (him and Tidus were probably even on being the
favorites in their four-pack in 2k3, 63.02% on Alucard in 2k4...hell,
in 2k4, more brackets were lost on Ganon/Alucard > Link than
Yoshi/Luigi/Pac-Man/Ryo > Link), then Ganon had over half the
brackets feature him be the VC runner-up, which obviously helped his
bracket-support last summer (86.55% over Yuna? 67.25% over Auron/Big
Boss/Yuna? Samus dropped from 85.98% to win her four-pack to 49.86% to
win her division). Throw in that Ganon impressed in each of his matches
(except Yuna's, and that one is arguable)... ...whereas Vincent didn't have astounding bracket-support against Kerrigan (75.77% isn't bad for being a new character as a 5-seed though), then lost a third of that support against Dante. Finish it off with then losing over half of that support in the division finals, and you have Vincent with only 12.47% to take the division... ...now, since then, I'm sure Vincent opened up some eyes and got some more faith in him now that FF:AC and DoC:FF7 are out...but against Ganon, as the lower seed again? There's no way Vincent doesn't have a big deficit in bracket support. --- Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest. It still hurts to be rear-ended like that..... |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 3:33:25 PM | message detail |
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Vincent has way more taking that division if he's not a 5 seed. He
raised awareness by winning that entire division last year, and the
Villains Contest is OLD NEWS, man! BOLD PREDICTION: Vincent Valentine to be the bracket favorite! --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 3:41:42 PM | message detail |
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Updating these numbers: Percentages by hour: 0:00-1:00 – 50.07% 1:00-2:00 – 50.64% 2:00-3:00 – 53.64% 3:00-4:00 – 54.43% 4:00-5:00 – 54.50% 5:00-6:00 – 56.17% 6:00-7:00 – 55.15% 7:00-8:00 – 54.20% 8:00-9:00 – 50.35% 9:00-10:00 – 50.23% 10:00-11:00 – 50.16% 11:00-12:00 – 50.36% 12:00-13:00 – 51.32% 13:00-14:00 – 52.26% 14:00-15:00 – 52.67% 15:00-16:00 – 53.56% 16:00-17:00 – 53.03% 17:00-18:00 – 52.84% --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 3:47:58 PM | message detail |
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ZOMG COMEBACK!!!!!!!111111111 TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| consolefreak | Posted 10/7/2006 3:51:44 PM | message detail |
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Great performance by Vincent here today. It'll be interesting to see
the prediction percentage for tomorrow. Vincent's winning here despite
probably being a pretty big underdog (I can see <40%). For all the trolling consolefreak used to do in this topic, his points on today's match were spot-on almost all the way through. I wish I had archived them so I wouldn't have to look through 100 topics to find them. Heh, I'll just ignore the trolling bit :d Anyway, I don't even remember what I said about this particular match, except that I was pretty convinced Vincent would take it in a not-so close one. But yeah I put a lot of thought into this match since it involves 2 characters we have data on. I also have a lot riding on this match (in retrospect, Vincent > Crono might've been a big optimistic :p). Percentages by hour: 0:00-1:00 – 50.07% 1:00-2:00 – 50.64% 2:00-3:00 – 53.64% 3:00-4:00 – 54.43% 4:00-5:00 – 54.50% 5:00-6:00 – 56.17% 6:00-7:00 – 55.15% 7:00-8:00 – 54.20% 8:00-9:00 – 50.35% 9:00-10:00 – 50.23% 10:00-11:00 – 50.16% 11:00-12:00 – 50.36% 12:00-13:00 – 51.32% 13:00-14:00 – 52.26% 14:00-15:00 – 52.67% 15:00-16:00 – 53.56% 16:00-17:00 – 53.03% 17:00-18:00 – 52.84% Good stuff. Sad to see Vincent slowing down though. Hopefully he'll get somewhere close to 53% in the end. Anyway, what are the expectations for tomorrow's match? The spread has the Prince > 36.5. Pretty tight, but I would have to give it to the Prince because Kratos 2k6 loses to Kirby 2k5 with about 36.77% (Ryu 2k5), and I just can't see Kratos > PoP. I can totally see the PoP getting like 45%, though that'd just be weird. --- CB: 25/25. Today: Ganondorf vs. Vincent. Tomorrow: Kirby vs. The Prince. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 3:53:11 PM | message detail |
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I just can't see Kratos > PoP. Odd, most of the board can't see the opposite. And PoP > Tidus would astonish me. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 3:54:57 PM | message detail |
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I'd love to see the Prince on Kratos' level, but I'd be happy if he
just cracked 30%. Getting over 35% would take a small miracle IMHO.
<_< --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 3:56:58 PM | message detail |
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Heh, I was showing my room leader at college the contest bracket
(despite not being much of a gamer, he's interested in it), and he immediately recognized The Prince of Persia. "Yeah, he's been around for a long time. He's been on like, every system, hasn't he?" I was impressed. Either way, my room is slowly learning of this contest. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 3:59:04 PM | message detail |
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If Vincent gets less than 40% of the brackets, I will be surprised. If Vincent gets more than 50% I will also be surprised. TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 4:01:52 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine's percentage in the past hour: 54.42% --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 4:03:30 PM | message detail |
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Quick! September 2007, Ganon/Vincent rematch with Vincent as a 4 seed and Ganon as a 5 seed. A FF7 remake has been announced for release in November 2007. Who wins? TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 4:04:57 PM | message detail |
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Unless the remake is released BEFORE that match...I'd hesitantly take Ganondorf. Although, depending on how much media is released (and when) for the FFVII remake, it might help. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 4:05:36 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf. I'm not pulling an HM and depending on a release that may or may not materialize for a win. *is reminded of my Aeris > Zelda pick* shut up And c'mon Vincent, let's make my Oracle look good! Sky high, now! --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 4:15:12 PM | message detail |
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Now let's say it's September 2007 and both MGS4 and SSB:B have been delayed until November/December. The winner of Ganon/Vincent goes on to face Snake in round 2. Who ya got? TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 4:27:03 PM | message detail |
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Solid Snake. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| MarkSmith | Posted 10/7/2006 4:28:04 PM | message detail |
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I dont have it in my bracket nor do I think its going to hapen, but... If Vincent finishes at 53% on ganon, tahts onmly 3% less than sonic was projected to do. And if Ganon really was underrated due to being SFFed by Samus, then Vincent Ganon's going to go down to the wire. --- "Government is like an alimentary canal. A huge appetite at one end, and no sense of responsibility at the other"-Rinald reagan |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2006 4:28:39 PM | message detail |
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my thoughts on Kirby's fourpack: I don't see any way for Luigi to win it. if you're looking at raw strength, he's never shown himself to be anything but the weakest of the three. if you're talking about SFF/rSFF, I could see him beating Zero.. but not Kirby. Kirby's already resisted SFF and possibly had some rSFF going on in his match with Bowser. hell, he outperformed Yoshi on Bowser. Zero sure looks like the favourite to me because Kirby looks realllllllly overrated, but I'll wait to see how he does first. I have a hard time believing Ryu and Tidus are equals, and that doesn't even take Bowser/Snake into account. no doubt that he'll beat down POP though. a doubling seems like a good number, though after Kratos impressed I don't want to underestimate The Prince. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 4:33:35 PM | message detail |
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The winner of Ganon/Vincent goes on to face Snake in round 2. I would feel a bit safer waiting until after seeing where these two end up and where Solid Snake places this year before saying who wins that match. But I would take Ganon over Vincent and then over Solid Snake. Metal Gear Solid 4 and Super Smash Bros. Brawl both are looking like late releases (MGS4 might head into 2008), and with Twilight Princess in full force and Wii being so widespread, I'd be confident in Ganondorf winning both of those matches. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 4:43:00 PM | message detail |
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I think PoP can easily break 35% for some reason. Call it a hunch. --- Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25) Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby |
| Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/7/2006 4:43:09 PM | message detail |
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Wow, Ganondorf really dropped the ball for the day vote didn't he. --- Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 4:45:26 PM | message detail |
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Nah, Ganondorf didn't really drop the ball. He's been doing about the same the entire time. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 4:46:02 PM | message detail |
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It's hard to imagine PoP being too strong. Kratos's level in 2005 always seemed like a good area for him. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 4:46:43 PM | message detail |
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Okay, maybe not 35% easily, but he can definitely escape the doubling. I just kinda picture him not being too far from Kratos. --- Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25) Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby |
| TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 4:48:05 PM | message detail |
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I think PoP struggles to even break 30% here. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2006 4:48:28 PM | message detail |
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if POP puts up numbers even remotely close to Tidus on Kirby, I'd be
pretty much convinced about him losing to Zero/Luigi unless some SFF
was involved. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 4:50:23 PM | message detail |
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And after this match and Halo/Castlevania, have we really lost all hope
of seeing another come-from-behind win again? (Kairi/Claire doesn't
count because they both suck) TuRtLe ~~~ I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory. |
| MarkSmith | Posted 10/7/2006 4:51:51 PM | message detail |
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SFF in a post snes square-nintendo match? wtf? --- "Government is like an alimentary canal. A huge appetite at one end, and no sense of responsibility at the other"-Rinald reagan |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2006 4:53:02 PM | message detail |
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SFF between Zero, Luigi and Kirby that is. not Tidus and Kirby. sorry, I haven't slept in like three days. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 4:59:47 PM | message detail |
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....Uh, KH/Vania, Turtle? --- z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT! |
| creativename | Posted 10/7/2006 5:03:25 PM | message detail |
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Don't know why some people are acting as if Vincent's day vote is all that all of a sudden. Vincent's morning vote is nothing good...as showed earlier his peak night vote hours were from 54%-56%, and his morning vote was 50%. That's a sizable drop-off. Just because he never bled the lead doesn't mean his strength isn't more night-oriented than day oriented. Very good performance by Vincent here, and his morning vote was just fine and about as good as you could expect from him. But it's not like he's anything other than average in the morning at best; probably below average. In the afternoon he's better. n00b Avenger pretty much nailed it - he showed how Vincent was doing well enough in the night that Ganon's morning vote probably wouldn't be enough to move the lead at all. Morning was still easily Ganon's best time though. Also some people seem to be saying Crono's day vote is good. He also is more or less ordinary with the day vote. Crono would slow down during the morning/afternoon against way too many people to consider him strong with the day vote. --- www.gamefaqscontests.com www.gamefaqscontests.com/gallery |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:05:55 PM | message detail |
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Vincent Valentine's percentage in the last hour - 54.39% --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| TehMissingLink | Posted 10/7/2006 5:12:14 PM | message detail |
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n00b Avenger pretty much nailed it - he showed how Vincent was doing
well enough in the night that Ganon's morning vote probably wouldn't be
enough to move the lead at all. Morning was still easily Ganon's best
time though. That's what I was thinking about earlier. With the way Vincent was just dominating with the day vote, it probably was pretty telling then that there wasn't going to be much from Ganon in the way of a comeback once morning hit. Vincent was just definitely stronger here than Ganon. It's still a match I would like to see again next year though. This result can easily be turned around once Ganon gets Twilight Princess in his corner along with the Wii releasing and perhaps even Phantom Hourglass on the DS. --- "Looking good, Princess, especially from this angle!" |
| dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 5:16:53 PM | message detail |
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So.....knowing that Squall's roughly a 34-35% BL character now, how big of a boost did Kirby get last year? --- z1mzum was the one to fill my dark soul with LIIIIGHHHT! |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 5:19:43 PM | message detail |
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It's not that Vincent's day vote was "all that", it's that he's not a
chump with it. He gained with it against Kerrigan, he gained with it
against Dante, he gained with it against Squall, he didn't lose too
much ground against Crono. Crono's day vote is relatively good, especially compared to his other CT brethren that just fall apart in the day. It would have taken a Snake-like collapse for Vincent to lose control of this one, and he's simply not that bad with the day vote. --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:26:31 PM | message detail |
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It's because Crono looks like a DBZ character. --- It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon. SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent |
| KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:26:57 PM | message detail |
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Oh, and <3 at vincent's % --- It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon. SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent |
| Ngamer64 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:34:53 PM | message detail |
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No new Guru topic until the Vincent bragging dies down. *continues to pout* --- thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives |
| transience | Posted 10/7/2006 5:36:50 PM | message detail |
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there's not much bragging that I've seen... not compared to last year
anyway. anyone claiming a 52-48 match was obvious and an easy call is
just being arrogant though. I haven't seen much of that though. --- Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11% |
| Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 5:38:02 PM | message detail |
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Hey guys, remember when Vincent completely and utterly destroyed Ganondorf in the easiest to call match ever? aw yeah --- *kills self* Commit it to memory. |
| KingBartz | Posted 10/7/2006 5:38:08 PM | message detail |
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I'd really like to see the new rankings... --- It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon. SC2k6: 24/25 Today's upset special: Vincent |
| Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/7/2006 5:40:33 PM | message detail |
| Some people might wanna know if they're getting eliminated when the Prince of Persia wins too.:P |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:40:49 PM | message detail |
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LOL 60% update for Vincent --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:42:18 PM | message detail |
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This is what the preliminary stats look like with Ganondorf currently at 47.75% here: Samus Aran – 41.69% Mega Man – 38.79% Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50% Solid Snake – 36.97% Vincent Valentine – 35.58% Squall Leonhart – 35.16% Dante Sparda – 34.12% Ganondorf – 33.98% Princess Zelda – 33.71% Tifa Lockhart – 33.57% Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81% Sora – 32.00% Ryu – 29.98% Yoshi – 29.01% Rikku – 26.55% Yuna – 26.10% Riku – 25.99% Kratos – 25.72% Gordon Freeman – 25.60% Chun-Li – 24.92% Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75% Jill Valentine – 23.74% Princess Peach – 23.50% Axel – 23.37% The Boss – 23.00% Phoenix Wright – 21.40% KOS-MOS – 21.30% Marle – 19.83% Tidus – 19.68% Kairi – 19.39% Terra Branford – 18.65% Ada Wong – 18.64% Claire Redfield – 18.58% Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03% Celes Chere – 17.90% Lara Croft – 16.75% Joanna Dark – 16.50% Ivy Valentine – 15.99% Tingle – 15.61% Kasumi – 15.58% Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41% Nidoran F – 15.13% CATS – 14.82% Amy Rose – 14.73% Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28% Soma Cruz – 13.20% Cortana – 13.12% Roll – 10.81% Carmen Sandiego – 9.38% Jade – 9.00% Princess Daisy – 7.94% Alyx Vance – 7.52% *waits for Lopen* --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| SonicRaptor | Posted 10/7/2006 5:42:31 PM | message detail |
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This match is really going to break some brackets, can't wait until the poll closes. --- Today's Subliminal Thought Is: |
| THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/7/2006 5:45:08 PM | message detail |
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393 perfects 20 zeroes Predict the number that remain after this match. --- Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship: Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna |
| Garsha_III | Posted 10/7/2006 5:46:24 PM | message detail |
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Ganondorf = Turd of the Round? --- George Harrison > Flonne |