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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 380

ps2rulezzz | Posted 10/8/2006 9:03:38 AM | message detail
5. Vivi over Donkey Kong: 35.13%
6. Tommy Vercetti over Kefka: 37.66%
7. Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot: 38.36%


10. Shadow over Wario: 42.10%
11. Morrigan over Spyro: 42.30%
12 KOS-MOS over Crash: 42.50%
13. Knuckles over Kefka: 43.05%
14. Kefka over Pac-Man 43.50%
15. Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman: 43.62%
16. Tina Armstrong over Gordon Freeman: 43.70%
17. Frog over Liquid Snake: 44.33%
18. Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur: 45.45%
19. Miles "Tails" Prower over Viewtiful Joe: 46.30%
20. Zero over Scorpion: 47.30%
21. Ganondorf over Tidus: 47.70%
22. Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter II: 47.83%
23. XenoGears over Pokemon G/S/C: 48.20%
24. Diablo over Ridley: 48.32%
25. Ryu Hayabusa over Jill Valentine: 48.56%
26. Ryu over Kratos: 48.99%

Those I had correct 20/26
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190/192 points in sc2004, winner team oracle challenge
2 perfect brackets sc 2006
therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 9:06:12 AM | message detail
I'm still not a fan of Bowser/Kirby "rSFF". I feel that yeah, Kirby overperformed... but I think it was a one time thing. I never bought the whole Kirby > Bowser in SSBM as a reason for him overperforming on Bowser. SSBM is such a small part of Bowser's repertoire. Nobody expected him to be awesome or anything in SSBM. I think it was a one time overperformance on Kirby's part.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:06:57 AM | message detail
just for kicks, I'll play with numbers. POP currently has 37.59% on Kirby. if Kirby 2k5 = Kirby 2k6, POP's at 26.31%, or just under Rikku. if Squall 2k4 = Squall 2k5, POP is at 23.79%, or equal to Hayabusa.

..heh, convenient spot to land.


Like I said, right between Kratos and Ryu! But you have to remember, Squall is underrated in 2K3 thanks to Link/Samus SFF, it happened, it was just really small! Then in 2K4 he gets adjusted to his 2K3, underrated value, and in 2K5 he jumps up to where he should truly be.

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mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:08:04 AM | message detail
I'm still not a fan of Bowser/Kirby "rSFF". I feel that yeah, Kirby overperformed... but I think it was a one time thing. I never bought the whole Kirby > Bowser in SSBM as a reason for him overperforming on Bowser. SSBM is such a small part of Bowser's repertoire. Nobody expected him to be awesome or anything in SSBM. I think it was a one time overperformance on Kirby's part.

Agree'd, but I don't think it's an overperformance on Kirby's part, I don't know why people ignore Bowser/Snake like we've never seen Snake overrate people before. (Y halo thar Frog and his 4-pack!)

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I love bananas.
transience | Posted 10/8/2006 9:09:21 AM | message detail
if it's just Bowser/Snake, Ryu is really weak and Kratos gets knocked even further down.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 9:09:43 AM | message detail
Oh, I wasn't ignoring Bowser/Snake. But I don't think Kirby really has that relationship with Bowser. And Kratos/PoP comparison through Ryu has nothing to do with Bowser/Snake anyways...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:11:20 AM | message detail
if it's just Bowser/Snake, Ryu is really weak and Kratos gets knocked even further down.

Bowser/Snake has nothing to do with Sora/Snake.

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I love bananas.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2006 9:12:50 AM | message detail
Right, but Kratos did face Ryu just afew days ago. I beleive that's the connection being made.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
transience | Posted 10/8/2006 9:13:59 AM | message detail
Ryu is the reason I don't really believe Bowser overperformed on Snake by too much. I just can't see Ryu dropping to midcarder status and you can't keep him up around 29-30% if you lower Bowser more than a teeny bit. and regardless, there's no way in hell I take Tidus over Ryu, yet Bowser/Kirby suggests they're equal. you can call it overperformance or rSFF or whatever you want, but Bowser/Kirby is still more suspect than Bowser/Snake is to me.
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ps2rulezzz | Posted 10/8/2006 9:15:18 AM | message detail
What is Bowser supposed to get on Leon?
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190/192 points in sc2004, winner team oracle challenge
2 perfect brackets sc 2006
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:15:54 AM | message detail
Right, but Kratos did face Ryu just afew days ago. I beleive that's the connection being made.

Oh, I've always been a proponent of Ryu underperforming on Bowser to a relatively equal amount of Bowser overperforming on Snake. It's why when I adjusted Kratos up to Rikku 2K5, I used Ryu 2K5 vs. Rikku 2K5, and the stats projected the match perfectly. I got Rikku 2K5 after adjusting Sora up to his 2K4 value, bringing Kratos up with him, then giving him another 2% boost for his game selling so much more.

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I love bananas.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:20:42 AM | message detail
The only thing that could make this day better than it already is, is if the Eagles curb stomp the Cowboys into oblivion.

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I love bananas.
transience | Posted 10/8/2006 9:23:39 AM | message detail
you know you're talking to a stats topic-er when they're thrilled about all their efforts translating into a near-doubling to a dum pink ball!

speaking of which, I wonder if the contrast of the picture matters any - it's a "badass" vs. a dum pink ball. I highly doubt it, but I suppose it's possible. if so, Zero's got Kirby's number!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:24:56 AM | message detail
Zero would, if Luigi didn't kick his ass before he got there! Honestly though, that 4-pack is complete chaos. They're all so ridiculously close to each other, it could go any way, which is why I just went with my first instinct, and stuck with it.

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I love bananas.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/8/2006 9:26:15 AM | message detail
There all gonna get saber slash'd
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/8/2006 9:26:15 AM | message detail
By the way the new PoP's for the Wii and PSP (Not a crappy card game, yay!), is going to boost PoP into the elites!

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I love bananas.
therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 9:28:33 AM | message detail
Yeah, I thought about that... a lot. I said that when the pics were released. This is like anti-Pac-Man/Ocelot. And just looking at the people Kirby lost to... Jill, Squall, Alucard. Then 2k5 hits and Kirby looks like the badass in his matchup against Tidus <_<, and Bowser certainly didn't have the badass advantage over Kirby as well... It's a thought...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 9:38:16 AM | message detail
Heh, even if Kirby is overrated I'm loving this performance. The Prince is looking to have decent strength after all, and I'd love to see him back in a winnable match. I certainly wouldn't take him to lose to Kefka...
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Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/8/2006 10:00:01 AM | message detail
Yeah, PoP is a contender afterall. I was afraid him or Nightmare would be the most likely to bomb out of those rallied...but I guess it's just Nightmare now...

...speaking of which, this is the first of our three NRT-winners in the contest. After PoP impressing today, do you take either Captain Falcon or Sub-Zero over him? Hell, would you take him over Raiden or Nightmare, too?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:02:06 AM | message detail
PoP definitely beats Nightmare, probably beats Raiden. Jury's still out on Subby and Falcon, and although I give PoP a chance I'd still lean toward them in those situations.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 10:02:44 AM | message detail
I don't think he beats Falcon or Sub-Zero...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/8/2006 10:03:41 AM | message detail
Whoa, look at The Prince go!
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2006 10:07:26 AM | message detail
"I think it's obvious that the prince os going to be a total flop. I expect Kirby to break 75% there."

lol Smurf
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AC2K6 Score: 26/26 Today: Kirby
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2006 10:07:39 AM | message detail
All these ninja chaaracters are so close to each other!
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Kirby vs. Prince of Persia / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby(25/26)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Zero / Vote: .. Still thinking
red sox 777 | Posted 10/8/2006 10:08:56 AM | message detail
1. StarCraft over Halo: 24.09%
2. Castlevania over Halo: 31.49%
3. WarCraft over Grand Theft Auto 33.94%
4. Knuckles over Magus: 35.08%
5. Vivi over Donkey Kong: 35.13%
6. Tommy Vercetti over Kefka: 37.66%

7. Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot: 38.36%
8. Master Hand over Kuja: 39.11%
9. Vincent Valentine over Ganondorf: 39.39%
10. Shadow over Wario: 42.10%

12. KOS-MOS over Crash: 42.50%
13. Knuckles over Kefka: 43.05%
14. Kefka over Pac-Man 43.50%
15. Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman: 43.62%

17. Frog over Liquid Snake: 44.33%
18. Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur: 45.45%
19. Miles "Tails" Prower over Viewtiful Joe: 46.30%

20. Zero over Scorpion: 47.30%
21. Ganondorf over Tidus: 47.70%
22. Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter II: 47.83%
23. XenoGears over Pokemon G/S/C: 48.20%

24. Diablo over Ridley: 48.32%
25. Ryu Hayabusa over Jill Valentine: 48.56%
26. Ryu over Kratos: 48.99%

15/24

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"........!" ~Magus
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:09:20 AM | message detail
Assuming Kirby isn't overrated (I know, it seems like more of a stretch with each passing day), it's hard to come up with a scenario where Ness beats him. Now, I know that there are those that say that Falcon > Ness -- heck, I'm one of 'em -- but the majority seem to defer to Ness in that situation, so that's where I go with that.

Sub-Zero is a much tougher entry depending on where you think Scorpion is, but statistically you can still make an argument for the Prince being stronger. It all just depends on Kirby here...
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MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2006 10:12:33 AM | message detail
I think Ness'll be stronger than Falcon because Ness has a game that's actually decently popular here. Falcon's not even the main focus of his own game.
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Kirby vs. Prince of Persia / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby(25/26)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Zero / Vote: .. Still thinking
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:14:27 AM | message detail
Falcon could have no games whatsoever and merely be going off of his SSB/M appearances, and I'd still take him over Ness with confidence. He's far cooler, faster, and more casual friendly to use. Ness is, frankly, just a stupid kid to the majority of voters.

The Earthbound "fanbase" doesn't even factor into this.
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Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/8/2006 10:16:06 AM | message detail
I'd take Falcon over Ness as well. The big game for those two is SSBM and I feel confident in saying that the voters prefer Falcon in that game.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/8/2006 10:16:50 AM | message detail
Than how could Ness beat some token black guy? >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 10:17:12 AM | message detail
Falcon has SSB and SSBM. That and his casual appeal is all he needs. As Karma Hunter said, Earthbound plays very little factor into that... Maybe in a direct matchup, but definitely not indirectly. Most of those Earthbound fans are probably SSBM fans as well.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/8/2006 10:18:27 AM | message detail
Falcon would beat that token black guy too.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:18:34 AM | message detail
Because he was in SSB/M.

Once you put him up against other SSB/M, that edge disappears -- as we have seen plenty of times before. Then he's got to rely on Earthbound to make the difference, and looking at things like Giygas I can't take him there.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2006 10:37:33 AM | message detail
Wow, PoP is completely slicing Kirby's percentage.

I was worried my oracle pick of 64% was an undershoot, but now I look to be over.

So what is this?

Assuming PoP = Kratos again, and factoring in Sora/Snake fishyness, this assumes that Kirby overperformed quite a bit against Bowser.

Of course, this assumes PoP is at or near Kratos, which is some arbitrary connection I pulled out of my ass before the match.

When writing my analysis, I was going to do exactly what Ulti had done, but when I ran lol xstats and saw 70%, I had a feeling that would be off. Then I undershot thinking he'd avoid a doubling. Untested character or not, this isn't looking good for Kirby > Zero.

Although I realize that I'm doing what people were doing for Axel Mega Man, this is too attractive to not chase.

IMO, if Zero can break at least 53% on Luigi, he has a good shot to take down the dum pink ball.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2006 10:38:34 AM | message detail
Hmm.. Knuckles or Kirby?
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Kirby vs. Prince of Persia / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby(25/26)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Zero / Vote: .. Still thinking
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2006 10:39:06 AM | message detail
And looking at the updater, it seems as though Kirby is trying to stop the bleeding.

C'mon Kirby, use your day vote to gain about 2% <_<;

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2006 10:39:59 AM | message detail
From MarioSuperstar Posted 10/8/2006 1:38:34 PM
Hmm.. Knuckles or Kirby?

I'll wait until we get a good value for Kirby against Zero before I even touch that match.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/8/2006 10:45:47 AM | message detail
I'd probably take Knuckles in a coinflip.
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AC2K6 Score: 26/26 Today: Kirby
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:52:24 AM | message detail
Assuming PoP = Kratos again, and factoring in Sora/Snake fishyness, this assumes that Kirby overperformed quite a bit against Bowser.

No, it doesn't...
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2006 10:55:16 AM | message detail
Using the adjusted Kratos with Kirby's raw value gives 66% no?

Not to mention everyone 3 pages ago saying PoP is nowhere near as popular as Kratos.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
therealmnm | Posted 10/8/2006 10:59:30 AM | message detail
Not to mention everyone 3 pages ago saying PoP is nowhere near as popular as Kratos.

Says who? The Sands of Time was just as critically acclaimed as God of War, and The Prince has had 2 releases just as big in addition to that. Plus whatever advantage Kratos has in sales, The Prince has the same with the name "The Prince of Persia"... not to mention old school games and such. As for actually character appeal... I don't see why one would be much more appealing as a character than the other...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 10:59:39 AM | message detail
Using the adjusted Kratos with Kirby's raw value gives 66% no?

Assuming Sora 2k5 = Sora 2k4, yes. Sora 2k5 is very possibly stronger, however. Not to mention that this year's Kratos seems stronger than last year's...

Not to mention everyone 3 pages ago saying PoP is nowhere near as popular as Kratos.

Most of this topic has never even touched God of War or Prince of Persia, and expected both Kratos and PoP to be fodderific. I doubt that PoP is as strong as Kratos, but there's no reason why he can't be.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/8/2006 11:03:57 AM | message detail
I'm talking about PoP = 2k5 Kratos, so Kratos boosting shouldn't make a difference. No matter, all will be revealed in round 2.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
KingBartz | Posted 10/8/2006 11:08:23 AM | message detail
I would have loved to see PoP in the sprite round. PoP2 sprite FTW
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 25/26 Today's pick: Kirby
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/8/2006 11:10:05 AM | message detail
Just remember to nominate him next year! Given a good draw, he could win a match and possibly make it to that third round!!!
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Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/8/2006 11:12:56 AM | message detail
Didn't CJayC have sprite rounds in the Elite Eight last year?
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Kirby vs. Prince of Persia / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby(25/26)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Zero / Vote: .. Still thinking
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/8/2006 11:13:37 AM | message detail
Does anybody here actually play Ubisoft games?
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
perfect chaos007 | Posted 10/8/2006 11:13:59 AM | message detail
what?
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perfect chaos007 | Posted 10/8/2006 11:14:29 AM | message detail
Red Steel?
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-perfect chaos007
KingBartz | Posted 10/8/2006 11:14:35 AM | message detail
lol HM
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 25/26 Today's pick: Kirby