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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 379

SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:37:17 AM | message detail
And yet Vincent struggled to put Dante away.
And let's not forget that Ganon struggled to put away Tidus. And lost to Knuckles fodder.

Both characters in this match are severely overrated.
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 8:37:47 AM | message detail
well, Ganondorf "won" the morning vote... he went from getting 45% updates to 49 or 50. it just wasn't enough to do anything. from here, the lead should slowly balloon to 3-4k votes throughout the day.

thinking ahead, it looks like Ganondorf was indeed ahead of Squall last year, unless you believe DOC did absolutely nothing for him. Ganondorf will probably jump back ahead of Vincent after Twilight Princess in a couple of months, though you never know. it's impossible to gauge if Ganondorf has boosted since last year though. this match gives me hope for Aeris > Zelda.. for the first time in what seems like forever, Zelda has been beaten. the last time that really happened was Zelda/Snake.

I'm also interested to see how Sonic does vs. Vincent as compared to Tifa. Sonic's taken on just about every FF7 character under the sun at this point, the only one left is Sephiroth. that'll be fun to watch. I'll be really confused if Tifa does better than Vincent! though I guess this could be a stronger Sonic. anyway, we'll see.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2006 8:38:21 AM | message detail
I'm not gonna say it's flat-out over for Ganon...but between the new poll-times, it being a weekend instead of a weekday, and understanding we're now past Ganon's best time, let's just say Ganon's chances of making such a big comeback are almost gone.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:38:29 AM | message detail
Yeah, the same Dante that completely mauled Hayabusa worse than Zero did a few matches ago.

And Ganondorf 2003 =/= Ganondorf 2006. Ganon wouldn't struggle at all to take down Tidus today.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:38:46 AM | message detail
2003 Sonic is a different kettle of fish to the beast there is now.
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:40:04 AM | message detail
Hayabusha? The Xbox character whose been declining in popularity?

I suppose by your logic, Kairi is almost noble because of Claires ranking in 2002?
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:40:26 AM | message detail
2003 Sonic is a different kettle of fish to the beast there is now.

I'm not saying Sonic isn't stronger, but out of curiousity what has he done in the past three years that would make him so?

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 8:41:13 AM | message detail
also, I suppose Devil Division theory has been thrown out with this match. both Dante and Vincent have shown they're legit, and while they may have boosted there's no reason to bother keeping to the idea. we'll get to see Squall in a couple of weeks too. I really can't wait to see what happens in Snake/Squall.

...well, unless you still think Ganondorf is overrated and that Vincent is showing weakness here, but I highly doubt anyone thinks that.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:42:29 AM | message detail
Yeah, I placed Ganondorf a shade ahead of Vincent in the 2k5 stats...it's just that I couldn't see AC and DoC doing nothing for Vincent. Going by that, Vincent got a healthy enough boost and is likely nipping at Bowser's heels (lol KH-stats).

Oh, yeah, I almost forgot!

Link is so screwed.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Lieutenant Kettch | Posted 10/7/2006 8:42:48 AM | message detail
The Tifa/Sonic match was also before the Advent Children leak I believe, so that's gonna be Vincent's absolute floor.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:44:20 AM | message detail
I'm not saying Sonic isn't stronger, but out of curiousity what has he done in the past three years that would make him so?

- Sonix X
- Sonic Rush
- Sonic Mega Collection
- Sonic Gems Collection
- Sonic the Hedgheog (ps3) Hype
- Sonic Rivals Hype
- Sonic Anniversary

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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:44:22 AM | message detail
Amazingly, I have a slight (arbitrary) adjustment downward for Vincent in 2k5 based on a good feeling I had. I don't see G-dorf at Vinnie's 2k5 stat.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 8:45:10 AM | message detail
assuming Vincent = Tifa, yeah. but you're looking at the possibility of Tifa being stronger and/or a stronger Sonic, if CATS 2005 is accurate and linear.

if Sonic gets more on Vincent than he did on Tifa, I'll officially call him the favourite vs. Crono.
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 8:45:54 AM | message detail
Vincent would totally SFF Tifa's socks off
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:49:59 AM | message detail
- Sonix X
- Sonic Rush
- Sonic Mega Collection
- Sonic Gems Collection
- Sonic the Hedgheog (ps3) Hype
- Sonic Rivals Hype
- Sonic Anniversary


And which one of them would've been the one that attracted new fans? Some of those games did sell well, I'll grant you:

http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=Sonic&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

Mostly I think last year's preformance against Mega Man though was a sign of Mega Man falling rather then Sonic gaining ground. Mega Man has also had new titles, but their sales have been significantly worse and mostly contrated in Japan:

http://www.vgcharts.org/worldtotals.php?name=MegaMan&console=&publisher=&sort=Total

I think his preformance against Axel may be a further sign of Mega Man's slow decline out of the elite group.

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:51:24 AM | message detail
contrated=concentrated
---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 8:52:04 AM | message detail
I'd take Axel over half of the female bracket, as well as over any 8th seed this contest. Your underestimating his strength...
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:54:05 AM | message detail
I'd take Axel over half of the female bracket, as well as over any 8th seed this contest. Your underestimating his strength...

Kingdom Hearts as a whole has overestimated value in these contests, they're consistantly given high seed that they don't live up to. Kairi nearly lost to Celes. Axel was a comparatively minor character in the 2nd game and yet he managed to get more then 30% of the vote.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:54:31 AM | message detail
Sonic went from 53% on Aeris, to 56% on a stronger FF7 character (Tifa).

That's proof of his gain. While MM is in decline, Sonic is on the rise. This year, they've likely past each other out.
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Yesmar | Posted 10/7/2006 8:54:44 AM | message detail
We've seen them with the old poll time (which was better for vote shifts in the first place), and even then we didn't get them except with polar opposites.

Not that I think Ganondorf is coming back, but we've seen large comebacks in 2002 and 2003 with this poll time. I think it was Ganondorf himself who pulled off a 1,500 vote one, albeit against Magus.

I'm not entirely sure this match alone will tell us much about the Devil Division. We really have no solid clue as to where to place Ganonodorf, and Vincent has every reason to boost. Unless Vincent turns around this percentage bleeding, I'm gonna wait a while before considering the Devil Division.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:55:45 AM | message detail
Sonic went from 53% on Aeris, to 56% on a stronger FF7 character (Tifa).

I don't think Tifa is stronger then Aeris, it's hard to back it up either way, but I don't think it's so.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 8:56:00 AM | message detail
Kairi nearly lost to Celes

A: It's Claire.

B: Rather than "nearly lost" the correct reaction is "SHE FREAKING WON?!"


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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:57:08 AM | message detail
I said this in another topic. Anyone who thinks Axel is weak does not know the Kingdom Hearts fanbase at all.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/7/2006 8:57:43 AM | message detail
Why does everyone think this match is finished? The day has just begun for most people.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 8:58:16 AM | message detail
That's proof of his gain. While MM is in decline, Sonic is on the rise. This year, they've likely past each other out.

The seperation of strength between Aeris/Tifa is far too gray of an area to draw any good lookin conclusions there however.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 8:58:29 AM | message detail
Because Ganondorf made no progress during his peak time. It's not brain surgery
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:58:40 AM | message detail
Because Ganon's best time is almost up and the best he could do is stall Vincent. And he's up by over 2100 votes. This one is pretty much over.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:59:15 AM | message detail
Some KH Spoilers:

A: It's Claire.

B: Rather than "nearly lost" the correct reaction is "SHE FREAKING WON?!"


Sorry for A. But my point is that Claire is a comparatively weaker character and I'm not all together convinced that Axel would be much stronger then Kairi, who at least is consistantly mentioned in the games. Squall, I think, is in the games more then Axel.

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Yesmar | Posted 10/7/2006 9:00:18 AM | message detail
Does anyone know when the poll time changed to 3:00 AM EST.

Was it at the beginning of Sp2004 or after the site redesign?
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 9:01:05 AM | message detail
Was it at the beginning of Sp2004 or after the site redesign?

I think it was after the site redesign, maybe last year?

---
Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 9:02:28 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Yesmar | Posted 10/7/2006 9:02:40 AM | message detail

I think it was after the site redesign, maybe last year?


OK. Because if that's the case, then we have DK/DH and Starcraft/Halo under the old poll time as well
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 9:03:24 AM | message detail
Post-KH2 Tifa > Aeris > Pre-KH2 Tifa, IMO. My confidence in Aeris taking down Zelda is soaring. And, unlike this one-point match, that one will be worth a whopping twelve points.

Contest is mine, gentlemen !!

Why does everyone think this match is finished? The day has just begun for most people.

It's all but over because the lead is just so big and Vincent is still making gains.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 9:04:41 AM | message detail
I picked Zelda > Aeris for some absurd reason >_> lets hope she can pull one out by that time. Twlight Princess ftw plz? <_<
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 9:04:52 AM | message detail
Post-KH2 Tifa > Aeris > Pre-KH2 Tifa, IMO. My confidence in Aeris taking down Zelda is soaring. And, unlike this one-point match, that one will be worth a whopping twelve points.

Contest is mine, gentlemen !!


Your not the only one that has that of course. I got Aeris going all the way to Samus.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 9:05:45 AM | message detail
Aeris > Zelda bandwagon is going bandwagon, no doubt.. and just wait until they find out FF12 releases that day!

man, it's amazing to see Zelda lose. I had this feeling they were invincible.

so... let's play the ranking game!

Vincent
Bowser
Ganondorf
Squall
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longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 9:07:03 AM | message detail
Aeris > Zelda bandwagon is going bandwagon, no doubt..

Well to be fair, alot is favoring Aeris right now unfortunately...
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 9:07:10 AM | message detail
Bowser
Squall
Vincent
Ganondorf

...man, I *really* want to put Squall over Bowser...but I'll wait until Snake/Squall for that judgement.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2006 9:08:15 AM | message detail
Bowser is above Ganon why? Because of his match against Snake where Snake received his horrible picture?
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 22/24, Next= Sonic, Vincent, Kirby, Zero
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 9:08:36 AM | message detail
Bowser
Vincent
Ganondorf
Squall
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/7/2006 9:09:05 AM | message detail
Zelda will still win because Aeris is weaker than Vincent, and Zelda is stronger than Ganondorf!
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caps
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 9:09:18 AM | message detail
I feel more and more confident about Squall being strongest as well. the scary thing is that Bowser nearly beat Snake, yet I don't think Squall is going to get nearly as close as Bowser did. I guess you could blame the picture or that Snake is stronger this year, but eh.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/7/2006 9:09:29 AM | message detail
wow.... you would dare think Squall could do better than Bowser vs Snake?

I like.

If it gets any closer than what Bowser pulled, Snake is in SERIOUS trouble.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 9:09:32 AM | message detail
Well, I agree with one part of AmazingKirby's statement >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
The Real Truth | Posted 10/7/2006 9:09:36 AM | message detail
Squall
Vincent
Ganon
Bowser
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 22/24, Next= Sonic, Vincent, Kirby, Zero
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 9:10:13 AM | message detail
Bowser is above Ganon why? Because of his match against Snake where Snake received his horrible picture?

Picture or no picture, Bowser proved his mettle to me in that match in every way. I'm defaulting to him because, no matter what the circumstances, he is the only competitor to have ever truly endangered the Noble Nine.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2006 9:11:02 AM | message detail
Vincent
Squall
Bowser
Ganondorf

And my confidence in Aeris > Zelda is soaring. Aeris's boost in 2003 seemed much smaller than the rest of Square; I think Cloud may have overperformed on Sonic.
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"........!" ~Magus
Killa1 | Posted 10/7/2006 9:11:39 AM | message detail
well there goes my bracket. I have ganon going thru the quarter finals.
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My GPA is 13 inches lol. - Sunchild
{[PM]}
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 9:12:44 AM | message detail
wow.... you would dare think Squall could do better than Bowser vs Snake?

I like.

If it gets any closer than what Bowser pulled, Snake is in SERIOUS trouble.


That's best (or in my case, worst) case scenario thinking, however. Whatever the reason, I'm leaning toward the match being in Snake's favor and not being all that close (as in, wide enough to get the Snake > Mega Man bandwagon rumbling that much more).
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/7/2006 9:14:58 AM | message detail
Yeah -- assuming Solid beats Squall with any kind of distance at all and Mega Man surely not going to beat Sora anything like Solid did last year, that bandwagon will definitely pick up steam...and it's hard to blame them.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....