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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 379

HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:41:39 AM | message detail
If you don't think the devil division is overrated, Bowser overperformed thanks to Snake, and DoC boosts him just the tiniest amount, I don't think you can take Bowser in that match.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:44:01 AM | message detail
Kiddies are back in bed. >_<

Sorry!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Xuxon | Posted 10/7/2006 6:55:36 AM | message detail
I'm not really liking my chances of Crono > Samus now. I need to hope for some combination of overrated Devil Division and Samus/Ganon SFF at this point. I was really hoping for Vincent to expose Ganondorf/Samus, but it looks like this will be ending fairly close as predicted.
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Take off every sig.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 6:57:16 AM | message detail
So I wake up and Vincent is in a 52% lead?! Yay! Lets hope this means the end of this match!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 6:57:28 AM | message detail
Ganon needs to keep getting those nice 52% updates, and stop letting Vincent increase his lead over a few updates, then erase it all with one. ****ing Ganon.

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I love bananas.
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 6:58:39 AM | message detail
Has the day vote kicked in yet?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/7/2006 7:01:17 AM | message detail
I predict a huge Ganon update next!

*Prays*
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 7:01:20 AM | message detail
Yes, otherwise Vincent would still be increasing his lead.

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I love bananas.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 7:05:44 AM | message detail
This sucks so much. Ganon gets a 52% update, Vincent gets a 52% update. STOP THE MADNESS.

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I love bananas.
Super Luigi | Posted 10/7/2006 7:07:05 AM | message detail
****ing Gannondorf and you people overrating him to hell.
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Currently playing : Star Fox Command(DS),New Super Mario Bros(DS),Mario vs DK 2 :March of the Minis(DS).
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 7:07:58 AM | message detail
Overrating him to hell? No one was calling for this match to be more than 52/48 in either direction.

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I love bananas.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2006 7:08:25 AM | message detail
Yeah, this is the definition of back and forth.

Woo Ganondorf being legitimately strong!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Bracket: Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 7:09:19 AM | message detail
What would everyone take between Squall and Ganondorf now?
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/7/2006 7:11:10 AM | message detail
Because of the wacky SFF battle between Vincent/Squall that made that match so close maybe?
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 7:11:23 AM | message detail
As of this exact point in time? I think you have to take Squall if things stay the way they are. Next year? Ganon.

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I love bananas.
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/7/2006 7:12:28 AM | message detail
There's only one way to make me feel better about Ganon losing. Playing WoW for 3 hours and then coming back and hoping Ganon has cut the lead to something manageable! Yeah so it won't happen, but you'll never get me in bed either!

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I love bananas.
Dark115 | Posted 10/7/2006 7:17:56 AM | message detail
This match does make Squall look a whole lot better although next year TP will be out so I'd take Ganon
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Current Content Score: 25/25
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therealmnm | Posted 10/7/2006 7:22:59 AM | message detail
Ganon thinks he is coming back, but Vincent keeps sneaking in a 52% update while Ganon's not looking...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 7:28:12 AM | message detail
Okay, I'm all caught up now, and *just* about done laughing at some of the stuff I saw from the past topics. Short rundown:

- "Vincent lost the day vote to Crono!" Uh, Crono ain't Frog, Magus, or CT, folks. He's quite good with the day vote. Remember when everyone thought he was done against Mega Man because it was assumed Crono was going to flounder in the day? Remember when Crono held Mario to 3 updates in 2k4? Yeah...that was a plus for Vincent if anything else, him holding that steady.

- "It's not like we haven't seen 2000 vote comebacks before!" We've seen them with the old poll time (which was better for vote shifts in the first place), and even then we didn't get them except with polar opposites. The closest parallel I can see with this match is Bowser/Snake, and again -- Vincent is no Snake in the day.

- However, we're getting a lot more votes than we used to. Ganondorf doesn't quite have a 0% chance right now in my mind, but his window of opportunity is slipping fast. This probably ends up 51-49.

- Speaking of Snake (aside from shooting a glare toward dragoon's way =(), him being significantly weaker than he was in 2k2 is a load of bollocks. Crono has supposedly gained loads since then, and Snake has more or less maintained the same proportion with him that he lost with in 2k2 as of last year.

- obviously, this doesn't tell us anything about either character's strength. While it's unlikely that both of these guys are Noble Nine breakers, it's not like it's impossible...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/7/2006 7:29:58 AM | message detail
I go to sleep with Vincent winning by 15 votes and awake with him over 52%! Awesome.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 7:30:48 AM | message detail
Ganon thinks he is coming back, but Vincent keeps sneaking in a 52% update while Ganon's not looking...

Well, it's not exactly hard to trick Ganondorf, now is it? lol sheik

Man, I kinda wish I hadn't taken so many upsets. Just going cookie-cutter (aside from this pick) is probably going to get me on the leaderboard by the end of the round. >_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
DragoonsKill91 | Posted 10/7/2006 7:32:21 AM | message detail
If there was ever a match I wouldn't mind losing my perfect bracket to it was this one. I wanted Vincent to win, even though I couldn't get it out of my head that Ganondorf was somehow underrated by the Sc2k5 stats which was the reason I picked him in the first place.

This match isn't entirely out of Ganon's reach, but it's getting there really quickly. Then again, we've had comebacks on this nature before, and this IS a Zelda character we're talking about... Here's hoping this is that last second nail-biter we've been waiting for.
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Still here after all this time... meh, not really.
shadow8021 | Posted 10/7/2006 7:33:34 AM | message detail
I'm so glad I switched to Vincent.
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Character Battle Score: 25/25
Today's Pick: Vincent Valentine
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/7/2006 7:34:08 AM | message detail
Heh, I switched to Vincent around the last few days.

This match makes me feel a lot better about Bowser being stronger than Ganondorf.
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Ganondorf vs. Vincent / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Kirby / Vote: Kirby
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 7:35:18 AM | message detail
This is pretty much over. Unless your name is Master Chief and your opponent absolutely sucks during the day, a 2000+ vote lead is tough as hell to get rid of. Vincent isn't going to fall apart during the day and all Ganon is doing during his best time is making some minor stalls/cuts. The best he could do at this point is turn this match into another Tidus/Shadow.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
Aprosenf | Posted 10/7/2006 7:53:41 AM | message detail
Ugh, this is painful. I don't think Ganondorf can come back from this. Why did I put all my eggs in one basket for this match? My bracket, oracle, spread betting, it's gonna hurt...
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
transience | Posted 10/7/2006 8:05:31 AM | message detail
hmm, three updates in a row.... really doubtful, but something.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Fire_Inc | Posted 10/7/2006 8:06:34 AM | message detail
Ganon has cut off almost 100 votes in 15 minutes now. Interesting, but I don't think it's going to be enough.
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For crying out loud, you know I love you.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2006 8:10:50 AM | message detail
And Vincent ends the good streak of updates for Ganon. Still, it was only a 1 vote gain.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Bracket: Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/7/2006 8:15:54 AM | message detail
Ganondorf is doing very little right now and this is his best time.

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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
shadow8021 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:16:54 AM | message detail
Vincent's matches have all been remarkably consistent. He's doing a good job slowing Ganon down in his best time of the day. Not only that, but he managed to stall Squall all throughout the day and match whenever he had a few lead cuts. I think this one may be out of reach for the wizard.
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Character Battle Score: 25/25
Today's Pick: Vincent Valentine
Tediz247 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:17:03 AM | message detail
Good to wake up and see Vincent winning. Ganondorf doesn't exactly have a good day vot by Nintendo standards, so hopefully Vincent's built up enough of a lead. I'm actually hoping for Ganondorf to take the lead, only to lose it in the final hour. Gogogo close match!
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:18:09 AM | message detail
And Vincent ends the good streak of updates for Ganon. Still, it was only a 1 vote gain.

Time is obviously on Vincent's side. Ganon needs to gain 41.3 votes per 15 minutes for the rest of the contest to win, or 13.8 votes per update.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:25:57 AM | message detail
That was a big gain for Vincent.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
ExquisiteSamurai | Posted 10/7/2006 8:27:41 AM | message detail
Big update there for Vincent.. 58 votes increased

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Eagerly awaiting Final Fantasy XII!
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:28:32 AM | message detail
And that's the fifth update in a row he's gained. It looks like Ganon's attempt at a comeback was pretty short lived. Is there any other time of the day when he might be able to mount one?

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/7/2006 8:29:38 AM | message detail
2176. This is the biggest lead Vincent has had all match.
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
shadow8021 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:30:05 AM | message detail
Would Bowser be doing better here if he was in Ganon's position?
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Character Battle Score: 25/25
Today's Pick: Vincent Valentine
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 8:30:25 AM | message detail
His 12:00-15:00 time is almost as good as his 9:00-12:00 time. But considering he couldn't even do anything with 9 to 12...

But anything after that is meh.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:31:15 AM | message detail
If there is, it doesn't matter. Ganon needs to gain constantly to even have a chance here...Zelda seems to have finally shown a bit of weakness, for a change!

Sign of things to come?! ^_^
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:31:20 AM | message detail
Depending on how Squall and Bowser end up, this seems like it's going to cement Vincent's position as the strongest non-noble niner.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:33:20 AM | message detail
Vincent will probably end up higher in the stats, but don't count Bowser out.

I'll take Squall over him next time no matter what, though, unless Vincent seems to have just got a LOT of help from DoC for whatever reason.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:33:49 AM | message detail
If there is, it doesn't matter. Ganon needs to gain constantly to even have a chance here...Zelda seems to have finally shown a bit of weakness, for a change!

Sign of things to come?! ^_^


Eh, not that much of one. The Exp Stats from last year had Vincent>Ganon too, they just never fought eachother.

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:34:10 AM | message detail
And by "a LOT", I mean he's going to make Sonic sweat buckets next round.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
SmurfFAQs | Posted 10/7/2006 8:34:51 AM | message detail
Think Sonic will defeat Vincent by more or less than he did with Tifa?

IMO both Tifa and Vincent and pretty equal.
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The Cream of Knuckles Fanboyism
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:35:46 AM | message detail
Uh, I think Vincent's considerably stronger than pre-KH2 Tifa. I don't think either Vincent or Ganondorf would struggle to put Luigi away indirectly.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:35:57 AM | message detail
Eh, not that much of one. The Exp Stats from last year had Vincent>Ganon too, they just never fought eachother.

Yes, but those stats potentially underrated Ganondorf and overrated Vincent, which was the entire reason this match was so debated.

Granted the Devil Division not being overrated looks better than ever, but we've never had a good read on Ganondorf...this year, we'll finally have one it seems.

And then he gets TP next year. >_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
shadow8021 | Posted 10/7/2006 8:36:25 AM | message detail
Nah, I think Vincent might get pretty close to what Aeris got on Sonic in '03.
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Character Battle Score: 25/25
Today's Pick: Vincent Valentine
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 8:37:06 AM | message detail
Sonic winning with 55%+ wouldn't shock me, but it would mean he'd also be the favorite to win the male bracket.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Terran | Posted 10/7/2006 8:37:16 AM | message detail
Think Sonic will defeat Vincent by more or less than he did with Tifa?

IMO both Tifa and Vincent and pretty equal.


My impression is Tifa is the weakest of the FF7 chars that make it to this tournament. I think Vincent can beat that marginally, I'm more wondering if he can match up with Aeris' preformance from SC2K3 (Aeris got about 47% of the vote against Sonic).

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Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo merge to create...Microtendony!
"When the president does it, that means it is not illegal." - Richard Nixon