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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 379

charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:00:05 AM | message detail
It's only 5 am here at the west coast give the morning a chance to come.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:01:58 AM | message detail
We are 10 votes away from the largest successful comeback. Ganondorf may have a good morning/day vote, but it's not like Vincent is that bad with it.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Crono801 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:02:00 AM | message detail
Sadly enough... I don't think this match will be over one way or the other until CJayC makes a topic.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:05:34 AM | message detail
Bowser versus Vincent?

After this? Vincent, no contest.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 5:10:51 AM | message detail
Heh, 2050 on the nose.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:14:00 AM | message detail
Hah! Now Ganon will start some sort of comeback.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:14:50 AM | message detail
(and fall one vote short, of course)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 5:15:53 AM | message detail
Well, the vote totals are up 25%. I guess this is the morning vote
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Starion | Posted 10/7/2006 5:24:10 AM | message detail
Assuming the Zelda-Carmen match was on a Saturday and comparing that match to this one, then this is indeed the start of the morning vote. The votes really start to flood at 14:00 or so. Ganon needs to constantly cut down on the lead now though if he wants a chance to win.
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
Guess how many teens | Posted 10/7/2006 5:26:13 AM | message detail
Ganon seems to be starting a comeback :o
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/7/2006 5:28:01 AM | message detail
That's more like it Ganon.

He'll have the lead quicker than you say "Optional character".

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:30:39 AM | message detail
Vincent increased the lead.

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The_Dealer_7 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:30:46 AM | message detail
Well... I'd like to come back from work today with Ganondorf in the lead.

<_<

I don't want to be disappointed.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:31:42 AM | message detail
You will be.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 5:31:42 AM | message detail
The last 25 minutes have had Ganondorf and Vincent going 50-50.

Exactly as predicted. Though perhaps Ganondorf can swing a little more momentum in the next hour or 2 and actually come out with an advantage.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
red sox 777 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:33:12 AM | message detail
Magus peaked against Ganon at 6:30 (7:30 Eastern because of different start time) with a lead of 1783 and 53.67%. That's a smaller lead than Vincent has now, but a higher percentage, although I would expect that Vincent's day vote is substantially better than Magus's.

At 8:30 Eastern Magus was winning by 1706, with 53.21%, while Vincent currently has a lead of 2036 and 52.41%.

8:30 into the match Magus was winning by 1586 with 52.65%.
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"........!" ~Magus
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 5:41:15 AM | message detail
My lord, just looking through this topic makes me want to stab several people with a fork.

It's not as if we haven't seen a 2000+ vote swing in the past, and that was back when votals were typically under 90k. If Ganon doesn't do any serious cutting by noon though, I will call this over.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 5:43:10 AM | message detail
Vincent is doing a good job holding off Ganondorf's start of the morning vote.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 5:45:23 AM | message detail
Or Ganon is holding Vincent off in the last stages of the night vote.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/7/2006 5:48:18 AM | message detail
I also find it hilarious, that despite everything else happening as we expected it (aside from them going even in the first hour), that it's ZOMG IMPOSSIBLE that Ganon takes the day vote.

Which brings up another good point, Ganon and Vincent were going even in the first hour, which implies that they could go even in the last hour as well. Ganon might not need to build up a staggering lead during the day.

And with that, I go to work until 4:30

=(

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 5:50:23 AM | message detail
Eh... I DID expect Ganondorf to do better in the day. And he is doing that right now.

I just don't expect him to get a biggger swing against Vincent than he did against Auron or Yuna. Which is something he has to do or else he won't even start chipping away at the lead.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 5:52:01 AM | message detail
Ganon could cut down to 1500 or 1000 if he's lucky.
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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 5:56:25 AM | message detail
Still going 50/50... and Ganon's best time has been 9-12, so now is his time to make his move if he's going to make one.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 5:56:58 AM | message detail
9:00-10:00 was Ganondorf's best time against Yuna.

We'll see how that goes. If Vince keeps close to that lead, he should be good to go.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 5:58:10 AM | message detail
I just want Ganon to start pulling in 52% of the vote... yeah that'd probably make him fall just short, but dammit I'm being realistic.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
therealmnm | Posted 10/7/2006 6:00:26 AM | message detail
Ganon certainly CAN comeback given that there is still 15 hours left in this match. But that's given the unlikely circumstances that his day vote is strong enough, and it lasting long enough for him to successfully come back. Looking at LoZ/FF, Zelda's day vote in that match stopped at 7 PM. Ganon would probably have to not only come back, but build a small lead for him to win this match. He needs a furious day vote for that. I don't really see that happening.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:02:04 AM | message detail
If Ganon slowly increases until 7PM to grab the lead, it's going 50/50 until the end, I don't think Ganon has to build up a cushion for later tonight, Vincent shouldn't do what he did in the dead hours then.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 6:04:09 AM | message detail
I don't see Ganon being able to pull an MC here. No way.

Looking at the guru rankings, looks like I'm gonna be promoted to 5th. Hah.
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Who Cares? | Posted 10/7/2006 6:04:55 AM | message detail
*Has not read anything in this topic outside the first page*

Hmmm, looks like Vincent built himself nice lead and we're already into the morning hours. So when exactly is the vaulted day vote for Ganon supposed to kick in? 2000 is a very good lead in matches like this.

And BTW, the votals are about a hundred ahead of Tifa/Ivy right now! Excellent!
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HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:06:08 AM | message detail
Ganon's best time started 5 minutes ago.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 6:06:17 AM | message detail
We're currently experiencing the day vote.

We went from 55-45 for the night vote to 50-50 in the day.

Coincidentally, the opening hour and a half also went 50-50.

I wonder if that means from here on out, it'll always be a 50-50 match
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 6:07:15 AM | message detail
morning vote I should say
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Samurai7 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:07:44 AM | message detail
The tradition of 1 huge HM blunder per contest lives on it seems
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It's a sad fact that you had to derail this topic because you are afraid of the power of the PS3 -- cade
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:13:17 AM | message detail
The tradition of your face lives on!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:16:09 AM | message detail
Ouch, after just a great first 90 minutes, Vincent pretty much dominated the night. Ganon needs to make a move soon if he wants to win this, because Vincent isn't just going to roll over and die with the day vote.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Bracket: Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:17:31 AM | message detail
If Ganon doesn't win one of the next 3 updates, I'm going back to bed.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:20:37 AM | message detail
Ganon must not enjoy my prescence in bed!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 6:23:10 AM | message detail
Hey, looking good here! I actually caught the opening minutes of the match using my cell phone when it started (y'know, when Ganondorf was charging out of the gates 60-40), but it looks like Vincent held steady over the night! Ganon's going to need one heck of a day vote to come back here, because Vincent is no Snake. He's not going to roll over and die in the day.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/7/2006 6:25:33 AM | message detail
Thanks for repeating my words, Kay Aitch!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Bracket: Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 6:28:05 AM | message detail
I'm not reading through all your supposed 'posts' while hungover at 9:30 in the morning!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/7/2006 6:32:42 AM | message detail
Meh.

So, Vincent vs Bowser?
Vincent vs Snake?
Squall vs Snake?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/7/2006 6:35:54 AM | message detail
Vincent v. Snake is interesting because of the FFVII factor, but I think Snake is stronger indirectly. Bowser beats Vincent, Snake (probably) beats Squall.

If it makes you feel any better, I take Squall in a rematch over Vincent.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:35:59 AM | message detail
Looks like the kiddies have woken up.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:36:30 AM | message detail
Ganon with two straight nice sized update wins! Come on baby, keep it up!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Starion | Posted 10/7/2006 6:37:01 AM | message detail
Yup. Ganon needs more updates like that and not the itty bitty single-digit cuts he had before. Could be just an anomaly though.
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/7/2006 6:37:39 AM | message detail
I take Vincent > Bowser, no questions asked. It would be close, but I really wouldn't be concerned.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/7/2006 6:39:49 AM | message detail
Vincent v. Snake is interesting because of the FFVII factor, but I think Snake is stronger indirectly. Bowser beats Vincent, Snake (probably) beats Squall.

Hmm. Although Snake is most probably stronger indirectly, I wouldn't want to bet against FFVII in a match llike that. Bowser vs Vincent woul give me a headache.

If it makes you feel any better, I take Squall in a rematch over Vincent.

Damn right! ;)
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/7/2006 6:40:37 AM | message detail
Kiddies are back in bed. >_<
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:40:38 AM | message detail
If we toss out the final two hours and change (since Vincent will probably win them regardless), Ganon has 12 hours to work with. That's 173.5 votes per hour. That's almost 14.5 votes per update needed just to tie. I can safely say it's over.
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 6:40:49 AM | message detail
...and then went back to sleep.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush