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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 379

transience | Posted 10/7/2006 1:23:22 AM | message detail
yeah, I meant to go to bed hours ago. hopefully I wake up to a good match and not a dud. doesn't look very likely though.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2006 1:25:21 AM | message detail
And there it is. Gnight, peeplz.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 1:26:23 AM | message detail
I wonder how big Vincent's lead will get. He's got a couple more hours left until Ganon's time.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/7/2006 1:27:05 AM | message detail
First, stick to the subject you started on. You have been talking about his ridiculous starts as much as/more than how his vote patterns line up to other matches. And, as I have said, it's too small an amount to matter.

Second, his voting trends obviously won't match vote for vote with another battle, a fact I have quite obviously made clear a number of times. You shouldn't bother trying to convince anyone, least of all yourself, that the trends will suddenly change and Ganon will suddenly be king of the day when he never was before. He may do better with the day, but it will not be by much, and it certainly won't be enough to matter if he couldn't do it before. From the look of things, he couldn't.

Third, if anything... the shift in voting trends is actually against Ganon. Look at MC, everyone expected his day vote to save him and it never even came. If anytihng, you should be worried that there will be no day-vote upswing and that Ganon is already as good as dead.
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SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/7/2006 1:27:42 AM | message detail
yup. goodnight. lol Ganon > Vincent lol..... Ganon a favorite lol.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/7/2006 1:27:54 AM | message detail
Er... Halo, not MC.
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Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/7/2006 1:28:21 AM | message detail
No earlier than 7 ET should be considered the morning time :)
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 1:37:15 AM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 1:38:09 AM | message detail
Ganondorf Vs. Yuna

3:30 - 6:00 - 59.65%
6:00 - 9:00 - 59.30%
9:00 - 12:00 - 64.16%
12:00 - 15:00 -63.45%
15:00 - 18:00 - 60.71%
18:00 - 21:00 - 59.81%
21:00 - 24:00 - 59.17%


Ganondorf Vs. Auron

3:30 - 6:00 - 51.52%
6:00 - 9:00 - 54.83%
9:00 - 12:00 - 56.20%
12:00 - 15:00 -54.99%
15:00 - 18:00 - 53.98%
18:00 - 21:00 - 54.18%
21:00 - 24:00 - 52.26%


Seems like Vincent will have to weather 9:00 - 12:00 the most against Ganondorf. Both of those matches weren't too different except the for the odd fact that Yuna performed about equally from 3:30 to 9:00 whereas Auron took a huge dip after the first few hours.

Well... whatever.

At his best, Ganondorf was able to make a swing of about 5% of the current vote at his best times.

Vincent's % in the last hour and a half: 54.72%

I should probably wait until 6:00 to take Vincent's % for comparison, but I'm impatient.

So if trends hold up, Ganondorf will be able to gain on Vincent in the morning hours, but only barely. Getting 51%, maybe a little more of the vote for several hours. But then it should go back closer to Vincent's dominance.

That's if trends hold up, of course.
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Guess how many teens | Posted 10/7/2006 1:41:39 AM | message detail
1020
1022
1020

*is scared*
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/7/2006 1:45:32 AM | message detail
And just when Ganon was about to comeback
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SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/7/2006 1:45:43 AM | message detail
Heh damn Vincent just spiked up.
Guess how many teens | Posted 10/7/2006 1:45:49 AM | message detail
I was scared there for a minute
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I got owned Z1mZum, the BSE Guru Champion!
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 1:46:05 AM | message detail
Oh Jesus, my jaw hit the floor when I saw that update.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/7/2006 1:47:40 AM | message detail
This is why 15 minute updates were so much better.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), Castlevania: LoI
Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2006 2:26:55 AM | message detail
And Vincent takes 52%!

Ganondorf 48% 15529
Vincent Valentine 52% 16826
TOTAL VOTES 32355

If he continues to rise, there just might be some justification to the Vincent > Sonic bandwagon.
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fluffyflyingpig | Posted 10/7/2006 2:34:44 AM | message detail
Sooooo..... when the Ganon day vote shift going to start?


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SilverNightmareX7 | Posted 10/7/2006 2:36:29 AM | message detail
This one is officially over. Vincent wins. Good night.
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/7/2006 2:36:48 AM | message detail
Vincent won't beat Sonic, even though he'll get awfully close to it.
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RevolverAk47 | Posted 10/7/2006 2:37:33 AM | message detail
Sonic 54-46
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/7/2006 2:37:37 AM | message detail
If by "Sonic", you mean "45% on Sonic". Then yes, he will get awfully close.
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My World is still Smurf!
Draco1214 | Posted 10/7/2006 2:38:09 AM | message detail
Sonic will get about 53% on Vincent.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 2:50:13 AM | message detail
And my perfect lives on! SONIC > CRONO, BABY!

Heh, it'd be hilarious if the Prince won tomorrow. All those people that are still perfect and survived the results of today's match would just let their jaws hit the floor.

VINCENT VINCENT VINCENT! And I hate FF7. >_>

Wait a second...so at 5AM GMT, is HM going to need to shut down his HM account? He had the Sonic/Ganon account bet with Chris...
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 3:08:54 AM | message detail
So Vincent managed 55% in that time period.

Hah, even if Ganondorf manages a good day vote, the best he could realistically hope for is a 50-50 match at that point. And that's if Vincent is equally as good in the day as an FFX character. Call me crazy, but I think an FF7 character would be a little more day-based than an FFX character.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 3:09:42 AM | message detail
Er, not a 50-50 match as in the result is 50-50. I mean splitting the votes 50-50. Meaning, not actually taking any of the lead away
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/7/2006 3:11:38 AM | message detail
Using the X-Stats calculator, this is what we get when we use their Summer 2005 values.

Ganondorf (2005c) VS Vincent (2005c)

Ganondorf has a strength of 33.64.
Vincent has a strength of 35.58.

Vincent wins with 52.73% of the vote!
A win of 5,259 with 96,454 total votes cast.


This match is coming close to that and that was pre-DoC. Sure the day vote didn't hit yet, but since Dante and Squall also seem to be suggesting so, the way this match is currently going pretty much proves one thing: The Devil Division is likely NOT overrated. (Or that it is overrated slightly and DoC is like DMC3:SE in that it's boosting Vincent/Dante back to their 2005 value)

Ganon's day vote better be all it's currently hyped up to be if he's going to make a comeback.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 3:47:32 AM | message detail
If that's true, I'll have a look at lol-xstats to see what Sonic will get on Vincent...

Sonic (2005c) VS Vincent (2005c)

Sonic has a strength of 38.50.
Vincent has a strength of 35.58.

Sonic wins with 53.79% of the vote!
A win of 7,080 with 93,345 total votes cast.

Right.

If Sonic exceeds that, we're looking at a Sonic boost and he's looking hotter on Crono.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 3:49:56 AM | message detail
I know the xstats aren't exact, but I still like that number. It LOOKS right.
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/7/2006 3:55:55 AM | message detail
Finally, Ganon is stabalising.

And not a moment too soon.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 3:56:55 AM | message detail
But a moment too late
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 4:10:17 AM | message detail
Vincent is 170 away from a 2000 lead. Ganon might pull this under 1000, maybe 500 if he's incredibly lucky.
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triviaman | Posted 10/7/2006 4:12:55 AM | message detail
ok, so let me be the first to say WTF @ that last update? Vincent brought in nearly 60%?! i wonder if this is still too early for the typical morning vote. or if there will be no typical morning vote. or - *GASP* - maybe Vincent will actually take the morning vote!!

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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 4:17:28 AM | message detail
You're going to want to wait until at least 8:00 AM on weekends for the morning vote.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2006 4:33:41 AM | message detail
Donkey Kong had 55% on Master Chief in the morning, not to mention a 2000 vote lead. Vincent's far worse with the day vote than Donkey Kong, and this match is going to get way more votes than that match did. This is far from over.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 4:36:17 AM | message detail
Didn't Vincent use the day vote to pul away from Squall? Or is Squall bad with it too?
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 4:36:45 AM | message detail
When you take into account that...


A: Ganondorf is going to need an incoming vote swing of 5%.

B: At his peak, that's what Ganondorf managed against both Yuna and Auron

C: That peak only lasted for a few hours anyway

D: Vincent, an FF7 character, is liably better in the day than a FFX character anyway

Ganondorf's odds don't look too good
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transience | Posted 10/7/2006 4:37:55 AM | message detail
heh, wow. yeah, I'll throw in the towel right here. Ganon is no Master Chief and Vincent sure as hell isn't Donkey Kong.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/7/2006 4:39:02 AM | message detail
heh, wow. yeah, I'll throw in the towel right here. Ganon is no Master Chief and Vincent sure as hell isn't Donkey Kong.

Vincent lost the day vote to Crono. That's worse than anything DK's ever done.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 4:39:16 AM | message detail
Er, I mean MORE than 5%

If he does 5%, he'll just stop Vincent from increasing his lead, but he won't actually chip any off.
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/7/2006 4:43:20 AM | message detail
I think Vincent has peaked at this point. His updates are now only about a gain of 10 or so.

The question is now, what can Ganon do?
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charmander6000 | Posted 10/7/2006 4:45:03 AM | message detail
*wakes up*

Good Job Vincent for getting the lead up while I was sleeping. The biggest successful comeback was 2050 if anybody is wondering.
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triviaman | Posted 10/7/2006 4:51:38 AM | message detail
so, wait - why are people saying that Dante lost the day vote to Dante? after checking the updates, it looks like Vincent actually won the morning vote against Dante and went pretty even with him the rest of the day. here's what Vincent had at each 3-hour interval (not what percentage of votes he pulled in during that period, just his total percentage at that time) -

Vincent's percentage's against Dante -

@ 3:00 (6 AM EST) - 53.39%
@ 6:00 (9 AM EST) - 53.72%
@ 9:00 (noon EST) - 53.98%
@12:00 (3 PM EST) - 53.98%
@15:00 (6 PM EST) - 53.97%
@ 18:00 (9 PM EST) - 53.90%
@ 21:00 (midnite EST) - 53.96%
@ 24:00 (3 AM EST) - 54.00%

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>_>
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 4:53:46 AM | message detail
Ganondorf 47.47% 18693
Vincent Valentine 52.53% 20689


4 away!
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triviaman | Posted 10/7/2006 4:55:45 AM | message detail
in fact, here's the same updates from Vincent vs. Crono -

@ 3:00 (6 AM EST) - 44.56%
@ 6:00 (9 AM EST) - 44.80%
@ 9:00 (noon EST) - 44.19%
@12:00 (3 PM EST) - 44.10%
@15:00 (6 PM EST) - 44.25%
@ 18:00 (9 PM EST) - 44.52%
@ 21:00 (midnite EST) - 44.59%
@ 24:00 (3 AM EST) - 44.62%

Vincent did lose the morning vote to Crono, but he gained almost all of the percentage he lost by midnight. if Ganon doesn't make a move VERY soon, then he will officially be toast.

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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/7/2006 4:57:11 AM | message detail
Ganondorf 47.48% 18852
Vincent Valentine 52.52% 20857


2000 vote barrier = breached.

Game over.
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dethfdddddh | Posted 10/7/2006 4:58:19 AM | message detail
Assuming Vincent wins this....back to the big match pre-bracket.

Bowser versus Vincent?
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Crono801 | Posted 10/7/2006 4:58:58 AM | message detail
So, I wake up thinking Vincent would probably be up by 2000 or so.

1995 is pretty close, eh?
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transience | Posted 10/7/2006 4:59:09 AM | message detail
he's already officially toast. this is Ganondorf's best time and he's not even cutting off votes. unless some freaky day vote happens, this is over.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Crono801 | Posted 10/7/2006 4:59:24 AM | message detail
Er, 2005.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/7/2006 4:59:42 AM | message detail
And we're on pace to just barely be the highest vote total match.

Big surprise there.
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