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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 379

Starion | Posted 10/6/2006 10:22:47 PM | message detail
So the day vote strength ranking for Zelda participants is what then?

Link > Zelda > Ganon? (don't even know where the games and series fit into this).
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:04 PM | message detail
If Ganondorf wins this match, he will actually tie Link's record of 4-1 against Final Fantasy characters. In all character contests (including the Villains Contest), Zelda entrants will be a combined 9-2 against Final Fantasy entrants.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:04 PM | message detail
...Forgot to mention, there's also no way Ganon's day vote is as strong as Link's. Even relatively speaking.

It wouldn't really need to be as strong as Link's vote here. But Zelda in general is pretty much a monster with the day vote, regardless of the opponent.

Ganon is about at Bowser's level?

I know!!


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"Master using it and you can have this."
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therealmnm | Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:16 PM | message detail
Comparisons to Link/Cloud are being done for 2k4 right? Link/Cloud 2k5 was held on a school day...
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
dragoontheguy | Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:21 PM | message detail
...Forgot to mention, there's also no way Ganon's day vote is as strong as Link's. Even relatively speaking.

There's also no chance that its as weak as Vincents. We've seen both these characters in action, and it's quite evident that ganon has a noticeably better day vote then vincent if you look at their past voting trends.
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When D... I'd be able to finish this sig if Z1mZum didn't own me so hard in the guru contest. Congrats on your victory!
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:24 PM | message detail
I don't know about trends, but I'd definitely take Ganon > Zelda.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
therealmnm | Posted 10/6/2006 10:24:32 PM | message detail
I don't know about trends, but I'd definitely take Ganon > Zelda.

Please let there be no more talk about that Zelda > Ganon crap.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:25:11 PM | message detail

Please let there be no more talk about that Zelda > Ganon crap.


The only way Zelda wins that match is if something weird happens with rSFF due to her name.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:25:44 PM | message detail
okay, just skimmed over 400 posts of nothing.

Instant Oracle Stats
Ganondorf - 67 picks ; Vincent Valentine - 64 picks
The Top 10 is split 5/5
The Top 20 is split 10/10
The Top 30 is split...you guessed it 15/15

Average Vincent prediction: 52.07%
Average Ganondorf prediction: 53.30% (52.30% if you remove 4 clear outliers)

Consensus: Ganondorf with 50.68% (50.10% without the outliers)


SO AWESOME. this made me even more hyped.

anyway, remember that the poll time is earlier, so Vincent is most likely going to start building a lead with the full night vote. it's possible that things don't go according to tradition, but remember that Auron started cutting at Ganon at around 5am EST. Ganon then wrecked him in the daytime.

not saying it's definite, but it seems possible. this should be a close match the entire day. I slept for one hour last night and now I can't go bed. grrrr

*reloads* woo! Ganon cuts at the lead! the longer he's able to stay with Vincent, the better I feel about his chances.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/6/2006 10:25:56 PM | message detail
12....ughhh
nevergleam | Posted 10/6/2006 10:26:08 PM | message detail
This is fun to watch. 22 vote resurgence by Ganondorf.

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Someday 2D games will come back in style....
I'm just deluding myself, aren't I?
nevergleam | Posted 10/6/2006 10:26:36 PM | message detail
Make that 25

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Someday 2D games will come back in style....
I'm just deluding myself, aren't I?
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 10:27:03 PM | message detail
You know HM, what you said about Auron really makes alot of sense.

Auron > chrono !!!!

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:27:11 PM | message detail
If it takes Vincent until 5 am EST to start making a move, Ganon has it... once 7 AM comes around I'm expecting consistent 52-48 updates for Ganon, maybe better.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
nevergleam | Posted 10/6/2006 10:27:41 PM | message detail
Or 21. I'm looking at too many sites at once.

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Someday 2D games will come back in style....
I'm just deluding myself, aren't I?
The Real Truth | Posted 10/6/2006 10:28:24 PM | message detail
YoAriel33
Posted 10/6/2006 10:23:04 PM
message detail If Ganondorf wins this match, he will actually tie Link's record of 4-1 against Final Fantasy characters. In all character contests (including the Villains Contest), Zelda entrants will be a combined 9-2 against Final Fantasy entrants.


This surprises you? The only Zelda character that has been in a contest that sucks is Tingle. It's not like Zelda has mass amount of characters making it into the contest.
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Nominate Barret Wallace for SC2k7, you know you want to
Contest score= 22/24, Next= Sonic, Vincent, Kirby, Zero
Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:29:04 PM | message detail
Actually, basing Auron off Sephiroth 2K3 and measuring Ganondorf through that Auron brings Ganon to about 34.98%, not 36.5%....I used that theory in conjunction with his match with Diablo to peg Ganondorf at 35% on BL. It seems even those might've undershot Ganondorf's value. Or maybe Ganondorf gained, or Vincent had no benefit from all the stuff in the last year, or Vincent overperformed on Crono...I really have no idea. Yay for x-stat fun.

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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/6/2006 10:29:56 PM | message detail
I really don't hope the kiddy Zelda day vote ruins another good match.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:00 PM | message detail
I always love Haste posts because they constantly contradict themselves.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:19 PM | message detail
This surprises you?

No. I just thought it was interesting to note.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:31 PM | message detail
Mario/Crono percentages!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:32 PM | message detail
Comparisons to Link/Cloud are being done for 2k4 right? Link/Cloud 2k5 was held on a school day...

I was using them in relation to 2005 since it's the most recent example with pretty solid vote totals that we have so far.



What happens when you compare the same time periods in Link/Cloud to this match so far?

I'll check up on both votes and time for Link/Cloud 2k5 and Link/Cloud 2k4 to compare after this next update...


1 hour 25 minutes
1.) Vincent over Ganon -- 12 vote lead (14,720)
1.) Link over Cloud 2k5 -- 66 vote lead (5,718)
3.) Link over Cloud 2k4 -- 321 vote lead (7,129)

Total Votes near 14,720
1.) Vincent over Ganon -- 12 vote lead
2.) Link over Cloud 2k5 -- 164 vote lead
3.) Link over Cloud 2k4 -- 74 vote lead


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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:44 PM | message detail
I really don't hope the kiddy Zelda day vote ruins another good match.

I do. Close match with Sonic >>>>> Close match with Vincent.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:30:53 PM | message detail
I really don't hope the kiddy Zelda day vote ruins another good match.

tell that to Kairi!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/6/2006 10:31:16 PM | message detail
V2 up by 15, I'm going to bed in like 20 mins.
PiGuy96 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:31:54 PM | message detail
Bold = in the lead, Italics = won update. Make sense?

01:30 | Ganondorf | 7671 | +984 | 49.82% | Vincent Valentine | 7686 | +991 | 50.18% | 15357 | Lead of 15 | (Up 7)
01:15 | Ganondorf | 6687 | +1111 | 50.18% | Vincent Valentine | 6695 | +1103 | 49.82% | 13382 | Lead of 8 | (Down 8)
01:00 | Ganondorf | 5576 | +1162 | 50.35% | Vincent Valentine | 5592 | +1146 | 49.65% | 11168 | Lead of 16 | (Down 16)
00:45 | Ganondorf | 4414 | +1250 | 48.89% | Vincent Valentine | 4446 | +1307 | 51.11% | 8860 | Lead of 32 | (Up 57)
00:30 | Ganondorf | 3164 | +1396 | 50.23% | Vincent Valentine | 3139 | +1383 | 49.77% | 6303 | Lead of 25 | (Up 13)
00:15 | Ganondorf | 1768 | +1501 | 49.36% | Vincent Valentine | 1756 | +1540 | 50.64% | 3524 | Lead of 12 | (Down 39)
00:00 | Ganondorf | 267 | +267 | 55.28% | Vincent Valentine | 216 | +216 | 44.72% | 483 | Lead of 51 | (Up 51)

No trend whatsoever an hour and a half into the match.
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Mustache...and green...
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:31:56 PM | message detail
Epic!
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CB5 Points: 23/25, Current Oracle placement: 26/162
Now playing: Okami
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:32:11 PM | message detail
man, a match that lives up to the hype?

who knew!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
fluffyflyingpig | Posted 10/6/2006 10:33:02 PM | message detail
Comparison between the time same time intervals would be more useful to accommodate for the new start time, if you arn't already doing this.


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CJayC | 6/3/2003 | Message Detail
GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site…
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:33:30 PM | message detail
Hey, trans is here!

By the way, sorry transience, but I just can't seem to call you "tranny" no matter how hard I try. It just doesn't work. I hope "trans" is good enough.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:33:37 PM | message detail
hmm.. is there an AIM chat?
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:34:21 PM | message detail
yo: transience > tran > tranny in my book!
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:34:27 PM | message detail
hmm.. is there an AIM chat?

There should be! We need to bring it back for this special one time occasion!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:34:45 PM | message detail
Heh, awesome.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:35:32 PM | message detail
AIM chat plz >_>
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CB5 Points: 23/25, Current Oracle placement: 26/162
Now playing: Okami
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:35:57 PM | message detail
Ganon dropped some and Vincent gained a little there. 48 vote lead for Vincent.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/6/2006 10:35:58 PM | message detail
Ouch... not such a good update for Ganon. Oh well, now he'll just bring it back down over a couple updates. I'm going to bed, but I probably won't be able to sleep and be back in 20 minutes.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 10:41:04 PM | message detail
Just when I think the night vote is going to kick in, Vincent drops off and Ganon takes the update.

I have no idea what to expect when I wake up...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Ganondorf vs. Vincent - Bracket: Ganondorf - Vote: Ganondorf (24/25)
fluffyflyingpig | Posted 10/6/2006 10:41:49 PM | message detail
Yay for instability.


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CJayC | 6/3/2003 | Message Detail
GameFAQs isn't going to be merged in with GameSpot or any other site. We're not going to strip out the soul of the site…
Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:44:30 PM | message detail
I always love Haste posts because they constantly contradict themselves.

How did that post a couple pages back contradict itself? ...well, I was getting a little ahead of myself, assuming Ganondorf wins and all, but unless Vincent managed to win handily, the statements wouldn't necessarily be false... I do tend to take different perspectives on things, and sometimes I appear to contradict myself, yes, but I don't always say what I believe.

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Super Luigi | Posted 10/6/2006 10:47:54 PM | message detail
Bowser vs Vincent would be interesting.
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Currently playing : Star Fox Command(DS),New Super Mario Bros(DS),Mario vs DK 2 :March of the Minis(DS).
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/6/2006 10:49:44 PM | message detail
I think Bowser > Ganondorf, so Bowser.
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Sonic vs. CATS / Bracket: Sonic / Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/6/2006 10:51:16 PM | message detail
Night votes starting to kick in. Hopefully Ganondorf can keep fighting.

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Can't think of a good sig.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:56:00 PM | message detail
Vincent = 2k3 Magus!

Sonic is so screwed
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/6/2006 10:56:28 PM | message detail
Wow, suddenly, no one posts. Stupid AIM.
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caps
transience | Posted 10/6/2006 10:57:03 PM | message detail
not much to say here - well, one thing...

UP 41 GANONDORF IS SO SCREWED
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
nevergleam | Posted 10/6/2006 10:58:30 PM | message detail
The dam breaks.

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Someday 2D games will come back in style....
I'm just deluding myself, aren't I?
PiGuy96 | Posted 10/6/2006 11:01:38 PM | message detail
02:00 | Ganondorf | 9365 | +823 | 48.38% | Vincent Valentine | 9479 | +878 | 51.62% | 18844 | Lead of 114 | (Up 55)
01:45 | Ganondorf | 8542 | +871 | 48.77% | Vincent Valentine | 8601 | +915 | 51.23% | 17143 | Lead of 59 | (Up 44)
01:30 | Ganondorf | 7671 | +984 | 49.82% | Vincent Valentine | 7686 | +991 | 50.18% | 15357 | Lead of 15 | (Up 7)
01:15 | Ganondorf | 6687 | +1111 | 50.18% | Vincent Valentine | 6695 | +1103 | 49.82% | 13382 | Lead of 8 | (Down 8)
01:00 | Ganondorf | 5576 | +1162 | 50.35% | Vincent Valentine | 5592 | +1146 | 49.65% | 11168 | Lead of 16 | (Down 16)
00:45 | Ganondorf | 4414 | +1250 | 48.89% | Vincent Valentine | 4446 | +1307 | 51.11% | 8860 | Lead of 32 | (Up 57)
00:30 | Ganondorf | 3164 | +1396 | 50.23% | Vincent Valentine | 3139 | +1383 | 49.77% | 6303 | Lead of 25 | (Up 13)
00:15 | Ganondorf | 1768 | +1501 | 49.36% | Vincent Valentine | 1756 | +1540 | 50.64% | 3524 | Lead of 12 | (Down 39)
00:00 | Ganondorf | 267 | +267 | 55.28% | Vincent Valentine | 216 | +216 | 44.72% | 483 | Lead of 51 | (Up 51)

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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/6/2006 11:02:43 PM | message detail
I don't even know the AIM room. >_>
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Sonic vs. CATS / Bracket: Sonic / Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf
BDawg | Posted 10/6/2006 11:09:47 PM | message detail
Man I am a dorf picker and I am suddenly sleepy, there is no way we can survive the night vote. Yawn well guess I'll just wake up with the kiddies (or more likely 4 hours after them).
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Should I start running now?