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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 378

THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 5:49:01 PM | message detail
Ganon's amazing with the board vote,

This makes me sad.

What also makes me sad is that people are talking about Ganondorf winning because of trends. If Vincent's stronger, it doesn't really matter what Ganondorf's better at.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
Draco1214 | Posted 10/6/2006 5:49:57 PM | message detail
Vincent will take the lead after the board vote wears of (which actually looks split looking the prepolls) and never look back.
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Character Battle V Score - 23/24 points
Current Prediction - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. CATS
Dilated Chemist | Posted 10/6/2006 5:50:43 PM | message detail
This match will go similiar to Snake/Bowser.

Vincent will win.

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Remember, remember. The 7th of October - the day Ganondorf was beat.
By the Valentine, who N fans despise - another win, another great feat.
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 5:50:50 PM | message detail
the board vote isn't just the board, it's the bracket favourite. just look at Vincent/Dante.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 5:52:11 PM | message detail
I wouldn't automatically assume that Ganondorf is the board favorite. The Villains Contest is a year removed, and despite everyone talking about "He's from LoZ!", Vincent IS from FFVII, which is worth a lot still.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 5:52:31 PM | message detail
Err...Bracket favorite, that is.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 5:52:41 PM | message detail
it was worth 25% on Dante!

granted that 5 seed had a lot to do with it, but still.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/6/2006 5:52:43 PM | message detail
I've thought this for a while now. Whoever wins this will not struggle at all to beat the loser. It won't live up to the hype.
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Character Battle V Score - 23/24 points
Current Prediction - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. CATS
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 5:54:22 PM | message detail
I feel that way about every close match lately. I think it goes similar to Ganon/Auron, but with Vincent owning a bigger lead (or a lead period) because the night vote is consolidated.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/6/2006 5:56:43 PM | message detail
I'm actually thinking Vincent will put Ganon away rather easily. There's quite a bit of evidence suggesting Ganon's fine where he is. All of Ganon's pre-SC2K5 numbers are inflated and based on overestimations.

It's all up to whether or not Vincent is overrated (and from the looks of Dante, I doubt it).
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Character Battle V Score - 23/24 points
Current Prediction - Sonic the Hedgehog vs. CATS
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2006 6:22:13 PM | message detail
Match XXVI: (4) Ganondorf Dragmire vs. (5) Vincent Valentine

Contest History

Ganondorf Dragmire


Summer 2003
Defeated Tidus, 50.68% - 49.32%
Lost to Magus, 49.70% - 50.30%
Ranked: 11th

Summer 2004
Defeated Alucard Tepes, 57.16% - 42.84%
Lost to Link, 12.10% - 87.90%
Ranked: 54th

Spring 2005
Defeated Giygas, 84.98% - 15.02%
Defeated Ansem, 74.44% - 25.56%
Defeated Dr. Robotnik, 76.64% - 23.36%
Defeated Diablo, 65.20% - 34.80%
Lost to Sephiroth, 41.83% - 58.17%
Ranked: 2nd

Summer 2005
Defeated Yuna, 61.20% - 38.80%
Defeated Auron, 54.10% - 45.90%
Lost to Samus Aran, 40.34% - 59.66%
Ranked: 25th

Vincent Valentine

Summer 2005
Defeated Sarah Kerrigan, 79.00% - 21.00%
Defeated Dante Sparda, 54.00% - 46.00%
Defeated Squall Leonhart, 50.59% - 40.41%
Lost to Crono, 44.62% - 55.38%
Ranked: 10th

Analysis:

Ganondorf is from the Legend of Zelda series. In both 2k4 and 2k5 Ganondorf was behind major SFF and in 2k3 he was overrated because of Magus so we really don’t have a true placing of where Ganondorf ranks. The placing where most people would probably agree to is Ganondorf through Diablo. Vincent was one of the most hyped characters last year and he did somewhat delivered. He won his division where most thought Magus had a free ride and he almost got 45% against one of the stronger members of the noble 9; whether his performance was legit is still up for discussion, but you can’t deny that he did well last year.

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2006 6:22:39 PM | message detail
This is the match, the match of the round, the match we have been waiting for since the brackets were released. If the bracket wasn’t male/female split then both of these characters would’ve had a great shot at making it to the elite 8, but because of it we will be losing one of these characters in round 1 and the other would have a match against Sonic. What makes this match so great? There are so many factors in this match, first we don’t even have a definite placing of both of these characters and second all of the boosts these two characters are receiving from games, movie and hype. Some people may think that one character may have a clear advantage over the other, but really we don’t know and the result of the match could be very different if that match took place one month before or after the match.

First let’s talk about Ganondorf. Back in 2k3 and after winning and losing two close matches Ganondorf was considered to be one of the possible noble 9 breakers, now we know that Magus’ match against Link was a fluke and the whole 4-pack along with anybody it touched in 2k4 has been brought down a peg in 2k5. Ganondorf on the other hand hasn’t really moved that much because of TP hype. After his match against Alucard it was announced that Ganondorf was going to be in TP, which was why Alucard it looked like Alucard took a huge jump because Ganondorf was ranked higher than what he really was. Some people are expecting Ganondorf to get another boost in strength from TP since it is nearing its release, but really I don’t think Ganondorf would get much of a boost since all we really know is that Ganondorf is in the game and that boost was his 2k5 boost (and the voter change boost I guess).

Another thing for Ganondorf is the possibility of Samus SFFing him. The only character to have had a match that was in Ganondorf’s 4-pack was Yuna and she versed a new comer and we really can’t say anything from last year because Auron has been behind SFF all his life and Yuna has gotten FFX-2 since her last appearance. Samus has been known for her inability to SFF anything and if she did SFF Ganondorf than it would be small, though for this kind of matches that may be all you need.

Vincent on the other hand is suspected of having an overrated division. Because of the AC leak people thought Vincent would have been stronger like Mario and SMS. So far the only character to have tested whether or not the Devil Division was overrated was Dante and from his match against Hayabusa it looked like the division may have not been underrated, but there was also other factors in the match like if Zero or Hayabusa may have been overrated or DMC3: SE giving Dante a huge enough boost to cover the supposed drop and gain past his projected numbers. There is also the possibility that Vincent’s new found strength on that match was actually the start of his AC boost and the other characters may have been overrated, but Vincent isn’t. Unlike Mario with SMS, AC wasn’t released exactly on the day of the match, but five days before the match.

This year Vincent also may get to know that he has had a new game and movie. If you believed that Vincent was overrated then those two things will probably bring it back to his 2k5 levels. AC was a movie and as we all know a movie release doesn’t give too much of a boost for one character, but if there was ever going to be an exception it would probably have be this one. FFVII is what made this site and even though the site has shifted towards Nintendo it still can’t forget its roots, though like I said the boost will probably be minimal at best. As for Vincent’s new game, DoC the game didn’t quite hold up to expectations so he won’t be getting any massive boost like some people were expecting, but I guess it’s better to be in a bad game than no game at all.

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2006 6:23:39 PM | message detail
The reason why this match is getting so much hype is because no one really knows who would win. If this match was to take place after TP then the match wouldn’t have been in question and if the match was held months before TP release then I think Vincent would be looking a little better going into the match. I have a feeling that even though the winner may be uncertain now the match won’t play out like that. I can see the winner of this match winning and not be in danger except probably for the first few updates. Hopefully that person will be Vincent.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Vincent Valentine over Ganondorf Dragmire

charmander6000’s Prediction: Vincent wins, 51.04% - 48.96%

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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
swirIdude | Posted 10/6/2006 6:24:39 PM | message detail
Up until the last few days, I was confident Ganon would win, but now I believe Vincent will be ruining my perfect bracket. What a short stay on the leaderboard for me.
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The FFP is the best topic on the board. It's a fact, look it up.
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=30272411
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 6:29:17 PM | message detail
Analyses posted in the Crew topic (I kinda don't feel like posting all those again), so here's the quick summary. 9 posts into a few sentences, woo!

Crew favors Vincent 4 (Ulti, Lopen, KH and the Guest) to 3 (Me, HM and Yo have Ganon). Vincent has a 51% pick from Ulti and 53.xx from KH and Guest, and a nearly 55% pick from Lopen. Ganondorf has a 52% pick from me, and 53.xx picks from HM and Yo.

You know, just go look at them... >.>
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. CATS - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Aprosenf | Posted 10/6/2006 6:32:28 PM | message detail
Oh Lopen, when will you cease to entertain me with your outrageous picks?
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 6:34:53 PM | message detail
I have never been more confident than I am right now!!


Ganon's going to kick some ass.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
triviaman | Posted 10/6/2006 6:38:07 PM | message detail
I have never been more confident than I am right now!!


Vincent's going to kick some ass.

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 6:38:27 PM | message detail
Vincent bandwagon is growing.. I bet he's the Oracle favourite today, and maybe rightly so. we'll see!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
triviaman | Posted 10/6/2006 6:45:54 PM | message detail
for the record, Sonic is expected to get 54.81% on Ganondorf through Diablo. so, for a completely arbitrary number - i'll take 53% to be the level for Vncent to hit to realistically think he has a chance against Sonic.

so, if and when Vincent breaks 55%, there will be plenty of room on the Vincent > Sonic bandwagon!!

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This is cyko posting from a friend's house!!!
>_>
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2006 7:02:22 PM | message detail
I may have Vincent, but it wasn't till recently did I start believing that he could do it.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
KingBartz | Posted 10/6/2006 7:10:12 PM | message detail
Heh. Date cancelled(again). It seems I will be here for the begining of this match.

lolganondorf
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 23/24 Today's pick: Sonic the Hedgehog
KingBartz | Posted 10/6/2006 7:13:24 PM | message detail
How much do you think that the Halo movie will boost MC when it comes out?
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 23/24 Today's pick: Sonic the Hedgehog
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/6/2006 7:14:36 PM | message detail
Halo movie+Halo 3+Halo Wars+Halo game directed by Peter Jackson=Big MC Boost
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Current Character Battle 5 Score 23/24 Today's Pick: Sonic Next Pick: Vincent Incorrect Picks: Celes
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 7:18:25 PM | message detail
ha.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2006 7:19:18 PM | message detail
CHECK OUT THIS AWESOME FOUR PACK

Wario
Dr. Wily

KOS-MOS
Ramza Beoulve

gogog
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: CATS with 100%
... alright, alright: Sonic with 81.51%
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 7:20:04 PM | message detail
Dr. Wily doesn't belong near those other three. uh, Wario > KOS.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2006 7:21:51 PM | message detail
Psh.. switch Dr. Wily with Protoman, if you're not happy
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: CATS with 100%
... alright, alright: Sonic with 81.51%
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/6/2006 7:38:13 PM | message detail
Bass > KOS-MOS

Bass could do it!
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
Aprosenf | Posted 10/6/2006 7:39:00 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS > Wario
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/6/2006 7:39:17 PM | message detail
Someone tell me how much Ramza scored on Kirby(it was Kirby right?), quick!
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
Draco1214 | Posted 10/6/2006 7:39:19 PM | message detail
KOS-MOS > Wario.

Sorry, it may be NintendoFAQs around here, but Wario is still fodder. Getting destroyed by Shadow who lost to Tidus doesn't speak well of what the Nintendo fanbase thinks of Wario.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 7:42:28 PM | message detail
wow, people's impressions of Tidus has really fallen because he got hit with SFF.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/6/2006 7:43:50 PM | message detail
It's not because of the SFF. It's because Tidus has been exposed as a chump time and time again.
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Character Battle V Score - 24/25 points
Current Prediction - Ganondorf vs. Vincent Valentine
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 7:49:51 PM | message detail
Just getting back into these topics... missed all of MM/Axel, but why are people saying "OH MAN KH2F GUARANTEED!!!" as far as I'm concerned it's just the KH's characters doing better, I don't expect any sort of contest wide square boost. It's not like when DMC3 boosted Dante we start yelling "Oh man DMC3F!" you people sicken me!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
BDawg | Posted 10/6/2006 7:56:19 PM | message detail
Heh I didn't even know Ganondorf had a last name. And God bless Link and his ridiculous SFF beatings, it's the main reason I miss him in the main brackets.
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Should I start running now?
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 7:58:39 PM | message detail
It's not a canonical last name.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Aprosenf | Posted 10/6/2006 7:58:52 PM | message detail
It's too bad the crew wasn't unanimous on Vincent on this one, since then of course Ganondorf would win =). Then again, HM is on the crew, so unaniminity isn't an option.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 8:06:06 PM | message detail
It's too bad people are deluding themselves into believing that Yoshi > Dante is in the realm of possibility!

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 8:08:23 PM | message detail
Ramza did as well on Kirby as Tidus did...no joke. Kirby was on an entirely different level, of course.

Anyway...I get the feeling that Ganondorf's not getting his fair share with regards to how strong people many stats topic people think he is...no reasoning whatsoever. I'm just scared of Ganondorf. My gut was Ganondorf, but my head made me pick Vincent, instead. Dirge of Cerberus and such should be enough to make me not worry, not to mention it's pretty darn likely at this point Vincent wasn't ever overrated...gah, something doesn't feel right.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 8:09:20 PM | message detail
Meh, even though I was on the Ganon bus, I can't help but think Vincent should be the favorite in this match. And I'm one of the biggest Samus >>>> Mario people.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 8:15:02 PM | message detail
Vincent should be the favorite, no doubt.

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=30693799
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 8:19:05 PM | message detail
I also have to question why anyone thinks MM/Axel shows MM's weakness. Seriously, a complete unknown newcomer, who everyone said they couldn't see being weaker than Kairi, and this result isn't that crazy. Did I expect MM to get more? You better bet your ass, but I love how we can call MM's weakness on a match with someone who we have no idea where they stand.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 8:19:59 PM | message detail
The King of Evil turns heads in 40 minutes!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 8:22:46 PM | message detail
Amen!

It's also said when HM is the only one in the past two stats topics using logic.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/6/2006 8:23:44 PM | message detail
Sure, backwards logic.
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caps
BDawg | Posted 10/6/2006 8:24:10 PM | message detail
If it wasn't like 60 degrees in here I'd be dabbing sweat off my brow.
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Should I start running now?
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/6/2006 8:27:06 PM | message detail
Sure, backwards logic.

Not really, considering we don't even have conclusive evidence of an original KHF, calling for a definite KH2F is just lucidcrous, when the only people it has appeared to help is actual KH2 characters. That's what we like to call a boost not a factor.

And that MM is surely doomed because Axel did so well on him. I mean, come on, Axel have any strength of his own? That's just ludicrous! Even with KH2F lolololol.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
charmander6000 | Posted 10/6/2006 8:27:27 PM | message detail
The sad thing is the last board upset that I took for a debatable match and got it right was Tidus in Tidus/Shadow (and even then Shadow only lead by 1). I guess you could make a case for MH/Robotnik, but according to the board it was almost a given for Kuja for to take that 4-pack and Robotnik/Sin was probably more debatable.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/6/2006 8:28:20 PM | message detail
Oh, I thought you were just talking about HM thinking Ganondorf would win. >_>
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caps