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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 378

voltch | Posted 10/6/2006 1:02:00 PM | message detail
cats really is an irresistible person,impossible no to vote for him.
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Z1mZum humiliated me to hell and back in the Best.Series.Ever contest.
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/6/2006 1:14:10 PM | message detail
Ryu is so underrated :(
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 1:17:57 PM | message detail
At the 16:15 mark, this match has 73096 votes. To compare with other matches at the same time:

Samus/Nidoran F - 74859
Snake/Soma - 71385
Kratos/Ryu - 75780
Mega Man/Axel - 75553
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 1:41:04 PM | message detail
From XxSoulxX Posted 10/6/2006 3:29:08 PM
I'm guessing it's only Canadians who have today off from school...


Not sure what ass-backwards province you live in, but Ontario gets Monday off.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
The_Ocelot | Posted 10/6/2006 1:43:50 PM | message detail
From BlAcK TuRtLe Posted 10/6/2006 4:41:04 PM
From XxSoulxX Posted 10/6/2006 3:29:08 PM
I'm guessing it's only Canadians who have today off from school...


Not sure what ass-backwards province you live in, but Ontario gets Monday off.

TuRtLe


Yea, us Ontarions get Monday off, I'm pretty sure all of Canada does.
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Current Character Battle 5 Score 23/24 Today's Pick: Sonic Next Pick: Vincent Incorrect Picks: Celes
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2006 1:45:23 PM | message detail
Most Quebec schools get Friday and Monday... and some people get Thursday too. But that's off topic.

I'm here to say CATS > The Prince in division finals!
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: CATS with 100%
... alright, alright: Sonic with 81.51%
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 1:51:01 PM | message detail
Well, Sonic is doing alright...not much else to say.

Oh wait, Ganondorf > Vincent!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. CATS - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (23/24)
XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2006 1:53:28 PM | message detail
I live in Ontario, and I get Friday and Monday off.
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 1:55:42 PM | message detail
True, but Mega Man was supposed to put the match away with the after school vote, too, and Sonic uncharacteristically started gaining again.

wasn't this the first match after school started? the morning / day vote was just delayed. I figured Sonic would be best in the afterschool vote now instead of the morning / afternoon.

it's awfully tough to increase your percentage when you're already at 80% anyway.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:06:06 PM | message detail
Nice update for Sonic there.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/6/2006 2:12:34 PM | message detail
Sonic needs to gain about 0.5% more, Ryu shouldn't do better than him...

Granted that was before Cats turned to the real joke of this contest, but still.
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Supporter of Alucard.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:20:28 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/6/2006 2:33:21 PM | message detail
How realistic is Sonic getting, say...81 or 81.5? I'm not up on voting patterns towards the end of the match, given I'm usually asleep when that happens.

Well, I'd like to think that was more Riku than anything else...

Mmm. I thought of Riku when I made that post, but had those divisions been reversed, then it would have been CATS doing the exposing...put it this way, CATS provided the last piece of evidence to prove the overratedness of that group.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 25/25 Today:Sonic
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 2:39:58 PM | message detail
Damn, I just realized that I'm probably going to miss the first few minutes of Ganon/Vincent >_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:41:58 PM | message detail
This probably won't get much above 81% if Sonic even gets there. Voting slowing down and the night should help CATS out a bit.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/6/2006 2:45:43 PM | message detail
Damn, I just realized that I'm probably going to miss the first few minutes of Ganon/Vincent >_<


Oh, poor you!

Now try missing the first 5 god-damn hours.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 25/25 Today:Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:46:12 PM | message detail
Try missing the first 12 hours.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
trannyscience | Posted 10/6/2006 2:46:55 PM | message detail
I won't be around either, it being Friday and all.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/6/2006 2:55:22 PM | message detail
Regardling yesterday's matchup, I'd take Axel getting in a contest over Sora, Kairi, and Riku any day of the week.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:56:04 PM | message detail
And I'll take Roxas over any of those!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 2:57:00 PM | message detail
And I'll take Hayner over all of them!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. CATS - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (23/24)
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/6/2006 2:57:09 PM | message detail
I'll probably see a good portion of Ganon/Vincent, including the first couple minutes. Zero/Luigi, however, I may miss some of, since I'd hafta go to bed almost right befo it started :(
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/6/2006 2:57:35 PM | message detail
Too bad Hayner and Roxas would be jobbas!

Well, I guess you could make a small case for Roxas.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:57:38 PM | message detail
Hayner?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 2:59:38 PM | message detail
Preliminary stats thus far assuming CATS finishes with 19% here:

Samus Aran – 41.69%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50%
Solid Snake – 36.97%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Sora – 32.00%
Ryu – 29.98%
Yoshi – 29.01%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
Riku – 25.99%
Kratos – 25.72%
Gordon Freeman – 25.60%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%
Axel – 23.37%
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
KOS-MOS – 21.30%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Kairi – 19.39%
Terra Branford – 18.65%
Ada Wong – 18.64%
Claire Redfield – 18.58%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Celes Chere – 17.90%
Lara Croft – 16.75%
Joanna Dark – 16.50%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.61%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Amy Rose – 14.73%
CATS – 14.63%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Soma Cruz – 13.20%
Cortana – 13.12%
Roll – 10.81%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Jade – 9.00%
Princess Daisy – 7.94%
Alyx Vance – 7.52%
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 3:00:33 PM | message detail
Hey now, I thought we were playing the "Make a crazy claim" game...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. CATS - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (23/24)
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/6/2006 3:02:38 PM | message detail
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%


Ha-HAH!
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 25/25 Today:Sonic
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/6/2006 3:12:59 PM | message detail
Here's a question: Which matches have the potential to make you mark out, even if the person you like more loses.

For example, I know The Boss will lose to Tifa, but I'll totally mark out if she gets 35 or 40 or something.
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http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs9/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=22242738 Sign plz
AC2K6 Score: 25/25 Today:Sonic
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 3:17:35 PM | message detail
Squall beating Snake = Biggest marking out ever!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/6/2006 3:30:01 PM | message detail
Is Kairi's value based off Claire's loss to Tidus? I hope there's no SFF against Rikku, so we can get a less crazy value.
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caps
longbladeofhiko | Posted 10/6/2006 3:31:14 PM | message detail
Zero giving Sonic hell and possibly beating him will make me mark out
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
I jobbed to Z1mZum in the Guru Contest. Did you?
MoogleKupo141 | Posted 10/6/2006 3:32:57 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
Tidus – 19.68%


...
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Dancing with myself! Oh-oh! Dancing with myself! Oh-oh!
And I'll sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! Sweat! SWEAT! SWEAT!
Kaxon | Posted 10/6/2006 3:33:41 PM | message detail
Eh, CATS or Phoenix doing well would have been the main ones to make me mark out, and those have already passed without happening. My favorite remaining characters in the main bracket are Mega Man and Crono, so I'm more likely to be depressed about them failing to meet expectations rather than excited about them exceeding expectations. (I did totally love MM vs Yoshi last year). So, I guess my final answer is Mega Man or Crono over Samus. That would make me go crazy.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Kaxon | Posted 10/6/2006 3:38:40 PM | message detail
One positive for CATS here is that since it looks like his massive board vote has lost its potency, we won't see the quite the swings as in his past matches; though Sonic will still rip him apart in the day.

...and yet again, we have a demonstration of why the new poll time sucks. Darn you Cjay

I like the idea of Vincent/Crono becoming the next Mario/Crono, but at the expense of Sonic's male bracket victory? No.

Vincent/Crono is nowhere close to becoming the next Mario/Crono, considering that their first match wasn't remotely close or controversial.

Just like Magus, Frog will likely never be as strong as he was in his debut, heavily bandwagoned year. Put him up against Liquid again and I doubt he breaks 49%.

Eh, Liquid is the one Frog opponent I would take Frog to do as well or better against next time. Like Frog, he was new, and he was the bracket favorite in that match... and he bombed even harder than Frog in his next contest.
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....TCELES B HSUP
Garsha_III | Posted 10/6/2006 3:40:29 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
Tidus – 19.68%


...


Keep in mind that Tidus is under SFF.
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George Harrison > Flonne
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 3:42:22 PM | message detail
Is Kairi's value based off Claire's loss to Tidus? I hope there's no SFF against Rikku, so we can get a less crazy value.

Nah, it was just a random number.

And Tidus isn't adjusted. That's why his number is so low.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 4:27:29 PM | message detail
Oh, and the Phoenix Wright number is mostly just for laughs. Compute Sora vs. Gordon Freeman to see why he has that value.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
Master Moltar | Posted 10/6/2006 4:32:07 PM | message detail
If Gordon seriously got that on Sora, I'd crap my pants...

and not in delight like usual.
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sonic vs. CATS - Bracket: Sonic - Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/6/2006 4:33:27 PM | message detail
Samus Aran – 41.69%
Mega Man – 38.79%
Sonic the Hedgehog – 38.50%
Solid Snake – 36.97%
Squall Leonhart – 35.16%
Dante Sparda – 34.12%
Princess Zelda – 33.71%
Tifa Lockhart – 33.57%
Aeris Gainsborough – 32.81%
Sora – 32.00%
Ryu – 29.98%
Yoshi – 29.01%
Rikku – 26.55%
Yuna – 26.10%
Riku – 25.99%
Kratos – 25.72%
Gordon Freeman – 25.60%
Chun-Li – 24.92%
Ryu Hayabusa – 23.75%
Jill Valentine – 23.74%
Princess Peach – 23.50%
Axel – 23.37%
The Boss – 23.00%
Phoenix Wright – 21.40%
KOS-MOS – 21.30%
Marle – 19.83%
Tidus – 19.68%
Kairi – 19.39%
Terra Branford – 18.65%
Ada Wong – 18.64%
Claire Redfield – 18.58%
Sheena Fujibayashi – 18.03%
Celes Chere – 17.90%
Lara Croft – 16.75%
Joanna Dark – 16.50%
Ivy Valentine – 15.99%
Tingle – 15.61%
Kasumi – 15.58%
Sarah Kerrigan – 15.41%
Nidoran F – 15.13%
Amy Rose – 14.73%
CATS – 14.63%
Lenneth Valkyrie – 13.28%
Soma Cruz – 13.20%
Cortana – 13.12%
Roll – 10.81%
Carmen Sandiego – 9.38%
Jade – 9.00%
Princess Daisy – 7.94%
Alyx Vance – 7.52%
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Well, my Round 2 picks are looking good according to these stats >_> Aeris vs Zelda on the other hand...
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Janus5000 | Posted 10/6/2006 4:33:42 PM | message detail
I would laugh so hard if Freeman got that much.

Though partly because he'd probably have to be almost splitting the night vote with Sora. >_>
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 4:35:49 PM | message detail
Well, Peach is entirely a guess (and admittedly biased, though I'm starting to come around on the idea that she might win against Jill), and after Axel's fine performance against Mega Man (which puts him a little too close to where Riku is based on 2005 Yoshi), I'm thinking Yoshi's probably too low, though we all could've guessed that anyway.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
THEJackSparrow | Posted 10/6/2006 4:36:54 PM | message detail
Note that Riku has to be worth 30.57% on BL for Yoshi to equal that Dante value, but in the end, it's just a guess assuming that it was Dante rising instead of Hayabusa falling, and that there was no overperformance involved.
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Captain Jack Sparrow's Run to the NCAA Character Contest II Championship:
Week 2: W, 52-14 vs. Etna
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/6/2006 4:38:04 PM | message detail
Riku vs Ryu

Who do you take?
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/6/2006 4:38:29 PM | message detail
Ryu.
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Supporter of Alucard.
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2006 4:58:32 PM | message detail
Ryu
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: CATS with 100%
... alright, alright: Sonic with 81.51%
GrapefruitKing | Posted 10/6/2006 5:02:05 PM | message detail
Peach vs. Lara Croft

Who do you pick
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CB5 Oracle Challenge - Today's prediction: CATS with 100%
... alright, alright: Sonic with 81.51%
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/6/2006 5:21:24 PM | message detail
Peach, with 70%.
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caps
KingBartz | Posted 10/6/2006 5:43:09 PM | message detail
Peach - 63%
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It seems I have no common sense. It's probably because I'm Mormon.
SC2k6: 23/24 Today's pick: Sonic the Hedgehog
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/6/2006 5:47:51 PM | message detail
Looking at previous matches, Vincent's best time seems to be the night vote(s), while his worst is the morning vote. Ganon dominates with the morning vote, isn't bad with the second night vote, sucks with the first night vote, and is okay with the afternoon vote. Ganon's amazing with the board vote, while Vincent's pretty much a board vote pansy. So, we should see Ganon start on top, Vincent coming up to peak at ~6-7AM, followed by a huge Ganon smash in the morning.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/6/2006 5:48:54 PM | message detail
Riku+Peach.
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!