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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 378

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 9:32:21 AM | message detail

Knuckles is out of Chief's league, Chief is out of Frog's league. Sub-Zero is a good enough upset.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 9:36:38 AM | message detail

Chief is out of Frog's league? It's still probably close enough that random variation you love so much could make the match debatable.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

BDawg | Posted 10/6/2006 9:37:24 AM | message detail

I really have no faith in Subzero but well he is facing Master Chump so who knows. And gah Knuckles snub I still hate it.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 9:37:32 AM | message detail

And I chose Knuckles because he always has good matches. He'd find some way to underperform on Chief or overperform on Auron.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 9:38:06 AM | message detail

No, it's really not, unless you think Halo 2 did jack for Chief. Chief ain't as high as he looks, but Frog's not being competitive with him again. You're arguing from bias here.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 9:40:43 AM | message detail

And I chose Knuckles because he always has good matches.

He's had ONE. His beating of Akira was only notable in that Knux was the first character to break 80%, Knux/Yuna and Knux/Kefka were stalls for his opponents at best. And the three Snake/Knuckles matches are arguably the worst string of matches we've ever had.
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 9:49:03 AM | message detail

Bias? Am I the only person that thinks Frog is all over the map in terms of strength?

He beat Chief by 7 votes then got 48.5% on Snake the next round. Then last year he beat a possibly underrated Riku before jobbing hard to Smaus.

He's an inconsistant little bugger and any match he's in is interesting in some way.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 9:51:39 AM | message detail

Not his match against Samus. Man, was that embarrassing (for both him and Snake) or what?
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 9:53:28 AM | message detail

But look what happened as a result of him underperforming on Smaus, that whack-job Samus > Mario bandwagon had one last glimmer of hope before being promptly owned.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 9:57:33 AM | message detail

It wasn't whack-job, and it wasn't just a glimmer.
---
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 10:01:06 AM | message detail

I'll whack your jobs!

Although if you really wanted to get nitty-gritty technical with it, you can argue that Riku's performance on Yoshi wasn't a combination of KH2 and Yoshi being overestimated, but rather KH2 and Riku being underrated because Samus is indirectly stronger than Mario.

This helps out Frog, but...no, still don't see him being competitive with Chief again. Just like Magus, Frog will likely never be as strong as he was in his debut, heavily bandwagoned year. Put him up against Liquid again and I doubt he breaks 49%.
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 10:01:16 AM | message detail

Just like last year, I think Bowser has the best chance to break the Noble 9. He has an advantage over anyone else in being the only one who's put them in danger before.

Meh, if he couldn't beat Snake, I don't see any reason to believe he'll beat Crono. Sure, he's had NSMB, but I don't see that doing a whole lot here. Bowser will get 45%+ in defeat, but I can't see him contending.

The problem with that match is that it probably won't be interesting either way. Crono will build a big lead with his night vote to the point where Bowser gaining with the day vote won't matter.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 10:03:03 AM | message detail

To me, Bowser over Crono was very possible -- it just required another Nintendo boost. But as of Yoshi, I don't see it. Luigi will have to beat Zero for me to give him a shot.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:10:03 AM | message detail

For all we know, Ganondorf is the next Magus. 1 massive overperformance followed by unreliable losses = perfect formula for an overrated bust.

An overrated bust? Yeah. That makes a lot of sense there. Because, you know, Ganon is clearly still weaker than Magus! And Tidus would go 50/50 with him today!

Man you people can be insane...

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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/6/2006 10:10:47 AM | message detail

Man you people can be insane...

less than three Heroic Mario. :D
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Supporter of Alucard.

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 10:12:13 AM | message detail

Ganondorf doesn't have to be 50/50 with Tidus to lose tomorrow's match. With him and Vincent being so similar, this match will probably come down to the intangibles.

TP hype vs DoC and AC boost
Samus/Ganon SFF vs Crono/Vincent rSFF

To say tomorrows match is anything but up in the air is sheer asshattery.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 10:15:00 AM | message detail

Heroic Mario -- The last voice of sanity in a world gone completely crazy. Where Ganondorf can be thought to be such things as "overrated" and "a boring, generic villain with no outstanding traits darn you ganon". A world where Twilight Princess can be thought to be less than the greatest game ever on a mere technicality such as, "not actually being released."

A true hero. A true patriot. Ganon > Sonic with 55%+
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:15:27 AM | message detail

Ganondorf doesn't have to be 50/50 with Tidus to lose tomorrow's match. With him and Vincent being so similar, this match will probably come down to the intangibles.

You said "For all we know, Ganondorf could be the next Magus." Now how in the hell can he be an "overrated bust" and still not be much weaker than people are expecting? I mean, hey, if you want to entertain the possibility of characters like Luigi, Dante, Zero, and Knuckles beating Ganon you can go right ahead. I'm more of the opinion that Ganon is underrated more than anything. It's not even about beating Sonic -- but he's definitely not weaker than what people would be thinking.

To say tomorrows match is anything but up in the air is sheer asshattery.

Because no one knew this!

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:16:44 AM | message detail

Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:17:08 AM | message detail

Well, dang...CATS is doing horrible. Sonic's on pace to get 82-83%, probably. A few ideas:

1)The current picture is hardly more recognizable than Eggplant CATS.
2)CATS dropped or Sonic gained lots.
3)CATS received major anti-vote (non-linearity) benefits against Ansem & Master Chief, or CATS is actually non-linear, as well, but does better when facing WEAKER characters.

I don't know why I mentioned 2 and 3...the first idea is by far the most plausible. I was thinking CATS was starting to gain some support compared to previous years regardless, but I guess that wasn't a smart thing to think: CATS would've likely done better in 2K4 than in 2K3, if that was the case. It looks like Sonic is going to get almost exactly as what he'd be expected to if you take Sonic 2K5 against CATS 2K4.

So... many of you would agree that C. Falcon has a shot at outdoing Axel's percentage, right? C. Falcon should be close to Ness, and the last time we had even an idea of Ness was back in 2K4, where he was around an estimated 22% on BL. Since then, SSBM's popularity has apparently soared. At the least, C. Falcon should avoid the tripling for another decent showing of an 8-seed.

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Xuxon | Posted 10/6/2006 10:33:07 AM | message detail

TP hype vs DoC and AC boost
Samus/Ganon SFF vs Crono/Vincent rSFF

Notice how in the second case, both need to be true for it to be even. Ganondorf through Diablo still only gets 48.9% on Vincent. And TP hype was around last year. (Note that for argument's sake I will take rSFF to mean short-term boost causing overperformance on Crono due to AC leak, as I don't believe in rSFF).

Basically for Ganondorf > Vincent to happen, if you assume Ganondorf through Diablo is correct, Vincent must have overperformed last year due to AC being released around then, but it hasn't had a long-lasting effect. And that either DoC hasn't jumped him back up there, anyway, or somehow Ganon has enough "more" hype from TP than last year to win.

To me, with the some of the unlikely scenarios necessary for Ganon to win, Vincent has to be a clear favorite. But sometimes characters don't need a reason to boost/fall, so it's still very possible for Ganondorf to win.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/6/2006 10:34:44 AM | message detail

if you assume Ganondorf through Diablo is correct,

It's a beautiful world of assumptions in this match. There's hardly anything concrete between these two.

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 10:36:55 AM | message detail

I'm going to assume that Ganondorf is weaker than everything and that Vincent is stronger than everything.

Vincent VS Ganondorf

Vincent has a strength of 58.94.
Ganondorf has a strength of 3.39.

Vincent wins with 97.12% of the vote!
A win of 146,764 with 155,721 total votes cast.

w00t
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.

Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/6/2006 10:37:49 AM | message detail

KH wins.
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Supporter of Alucard.

Xuxon | Posted 10/6/2006 10:37:59 AM | message detail

Right now I see no reason not to assume that as last year's Ganon's ceiling. It's the weakest CATS projection from last year and he's still doing worse on Sonic than that would indicate.
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Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/6/2006 10:43:18 AM | message detail

Taggage.

KB

Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:46:17 AM | message detail

Measuring through CATS, Ganondorf beats Master Chief with 62.32%. We all know that's accurate!

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 10:47:58 AM | message detail

Because using Master Chief will undoubtedly make sense! After all, when has he shown himself to be unreliable? -_-
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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 10:48:43 AM | message detail

At the least, C. Falcon should avoid the tripling for another decent showing of an 8-seed.

Please point me to another 8 seed that performed decently.

Nidoran F? Tingle?

All of the 8-seeds either met expectations or completely bombed.

Captain Falcon is the only 8-seed this year that looks to have any semblance of strength, and I'd put him at or above Ness.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:50:56 AM | message detail

You knew my sarcasm...but, it's hilarius how that projects Ganondorf to beat Crono by just a little bit.

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Haste_2 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:51:42 AM | message detail

Oops, for some reason I was thinking Axel was an 8-seed. Stupid Mega Man being a 2 and all...

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BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 10:54:31 AM | message detail

I kinda figured that's what you were thinking, but I couldn't pass up the chance to relentlessly tear into someone in the stats topic >_>

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

YoAriel33 | Posted 10/6/2006 10:59:34 AM | message detail

Anyone who remembers the first few years of the contest will remember the argument that CATS was actually a good measuring stick. No one would vote for him other than the board and the few AYB fans, so we was thought to be a relatively consistent performer. Funny how that fell by the wayside. =P
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transience | Posted 10/6/2006 11:06:00 AM | message detail

I blame Ansem!

I've never believed CATS to be a good measuring stick. you're extrapolating through a fad, after all, and one that is getting further and further from the public consciousness. I haven't seen AYB in years and I doubt very many other people have either. we still quote it at times and I love the thing, but it sure isn't what it used to be. I know he predicted Link and Cloud, but that's more of a coincidence to me than anything else.

honestly, what Snake did to Soma is more impressive to me than this. we just don't have any data on Soma or else we'd be hyping Snake in the same way.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

Big Bob | Posted 10/6/2006 11:11:00 AM | message detail

As much as I would love for this match to mean that Sonic is going to kick ass this year, I still have to wonder.

In 2k3, Sonic beat Ken 3% harder than Samus had done the year before, meaning that he should have boosted, yet 2k3 was his worst year.

Still, this combined with 5th place in the BSE X-Stats is a good sign.
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"My opinion matters more to me than yours does." - Ulti

BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/6/2006 11:13:54 AM | message detail

I never understood the "CATS predicted Cloud and Link!!" argument myself.

Like tranny said, that was more coincidence than anything else.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.

XIII_rocks | Posted 10/6/2006 11:20:12 AM | message detail

The "predicted contest champion" thing isn't very good, but he DID expose MC before his match with DK
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 11:22:44 AM | message detail

Well, I'd like to think that was more Riku than anything else...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 11:23:11 AM | message detail

In terms of exposing MC, I mean.
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Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/6/2006 11:25:38 AM | message detail

Funny how many said that Sonic needs to get between 78% and 80% to be considered the favourite to win the male bracket (at least until we've seen Crono in action). Now that he has above 80% and is slowly getting higher, everyone says that CATS is overrated :)
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Supporter of Alucard.

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 11:30:45 AM | message detail

I believe I held the line at 83% for calling Sonic the favorite against Crono, as that's what Crono 2k5's expected to get on 2004 CATS. Between Hybrid CATS being at least marginally stronger than Eggplant CATS and my belief that Crono dipped a little in 2005 (meaning he's slightly overrated in the stats), that percentage would make me feel REAL good about Sonic's chances there.
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/6/2006 11:32:42 AM | message detail

Why did Sonic slow down? I thought Sega was a beast during the day.

~*ST*~
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transience | Posted 10/6/2006 11:35:39 AM | message detail

many? more like Smurf, who used CATS through Master Chief to make Sonic look stronger than he really is. I said he'd have to get into the mid-80's to get me worried. this isn't to say that Sonic can't beat Crono, but to call him the favourite because of what he did to CATS? nah.

afterschool vote should kick in a few minutes. that's when we'll know what's up with Sonic's day vote.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%

therealmnm | Posted 10/6/2006 11:38:28 AM | message detail

I don't expect Sonic to have that much of a day vote in this match. He already came out smoking in this match after the board vote. With as large as the gap is, any spike in CATS votes at any given update causes Sonic's percentage to go down. A 40 vote swing in this match is enough for Sonic to go from an 82% update to a 78% update.
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Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 12:25:35 PM | message detail

Sonic characters own the morning vote, not the after school vote. Sonic blasted CATS apart with it. He's still gaining a good bit now, too.

but does better when facing WEAKER characters.

Yeah, so do most characters.
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XxSoulxX | Posted 10/6/2006 12:29:08 PM | message detail

I'm guessing it's only Canadians who have today off from school...
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Why the hell did I bet against a character as deep, awesome and badass as Lara Croft, instead favouring a character from something as lame as HL2? Forgive me, XIII.

Karma Hunter | Posted 10/6/2006 12:29:11 PM | message detail

Sonic characters own the morning vote, not the after school vote.

Which is why I still can't comprehend how Sonic let Mega Man get back into the game with him. He was gaining all night, and when morning hit he shot off like a a rocket and passed him -- and then suddenly stopped and let what would have been a clinched victory slip away.

The morning vote isn't *that* short...
---
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 12:30:19 PM | message detail

Which is why I still can't comprehend how Sonic let Mega Man get back into the game with him. He was gaining all night, and when morning hit he shot off like a a rocket and passed him -- and then suddenly stopped and let what would have been a clinched victory slip away.

The morning vote isn't *that* short...

True, but Mega Man was supposed to put the match away with the after school vote, too, and Sonic uncharacteristically started gaining again.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

LeonhartForever | Posted 10/6/2006 12:33:09 PM | message detail

But going back to Crono/Bowser again, KH said that Luigi would just have to beat Zero before he would consider the Koopa King winning. Just the green one winning wouldn't be enough for me. He'd have to win with, say, 52% or so before I start worrying.

Of course, if Dante beats Yoshi, I won't really worry either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D

HaRRicH | Posted 10/6/2006 1:01:07 PM | message detail

Sonic: CATS currently has 19.61%
Ryu: CATS finished with 19.21%

HAY GUYS REMEMBER WHEN MASTEY MAGE HAD RYU OVA SNOIC IT MAKES SENSE NOW1
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It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....

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