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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 377

HaRRicH | Posted 10/5/2006 9:08:31 PM | message detail
I'm sorry, but as a noble nine member who has a chance to impress this contest, you should at least be able to break 70% in Round 1. Failing to hit that number was kind of embarrassing and this is coming from someone who took MM to win the Male Bracket.

2k2: Solid/Squall, Samus/Ken
2k3: Sonic/Ken
2k6: Mega Man/Axel

Granted, Axel is no Squall and likely no Ken, not to mention that none of those Noble Niners are top-tier for that group...but that's still not bad and it's not like it's never happened before. They still all made it to the Elite Eight, and Mega Man's not got to worry about losing before then this year either.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:08:53 PM | message detail
I can feel Sonic over Crono...in my bone!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 10/5/2006 9:09:37 PM | message detail
This is damn good for Sonic, as early as it is.

Wow, Sonic's doing way better than Link did on CATS

Link got 87% on eggplant CATS.

The current CATS is more of a hybrid CATS...not quite Face CATS. I had thought it was Face CATS when making my Oracle prediction, didn't realize it wasn't...
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:09:46 PM | message detail
Sonic exceeding his projection here is nothing to get alarmed about. Well...unless you think CATS 2005 is accurate. <<

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:11:07 PM | message detail
Link got 87% on eggplant CATS.

Check out the Link/CATS updater. Sonic is outdoing him.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2006 9:11:16 PM | message detail
unless Sonic puts up some insane percentage on CATS here, I'm not going to take anything away from it. it's, like, CATS.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:12:34 PM | message detail
Whoa!

I just realized that tomorrow's match is Ganondorf and Vincent! That's awesome.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:13:09 PM | message detail
Sonic may be outdoing Link right now, but Link gained a lot more during the second 5 minutes than Sonic... plus the board isn't nearly as keen on anti-voting Sonic as it is on doing so to Link.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
creativename | Posted 10/5/2006 9:13:25 PM | message detail
Check out the Link/CATS updater. Sonic is outdoing him.

I don't think that's what he meant. Also, at 2349 total votes in that match, Link had 78.97% (as opposed to 75.25% for Sonic here at 2356 votes).
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cyko | Posted 10/5/2006 9:13:42 PM | message detail
anything over 78.4% will make me annoyed that i changed my oracle pick.

anything over 81% will make me nervous.

and anything over 84% will frighten the boots off of me.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Janus5000 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:14:00 PM | message detail
Of course I'm pretty sure we all knew Link was weaker than Sonic, but still. >_>

(Yes, I know that's a typo, but I like it!)
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 9:15:08 PM | message detail
I don't think that's what he meant. Also, at 2349 total votes in that match, Link had 78.97% (as opposed to 75.25% for Sonic here at 2356 votes).

That's exactly what I meant. What else could I mean?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:15:54 PM | message detail
I don't think that's what he meant.

I *really* think it was, but, eh.

Also, at 2349 total votes in that match, Link had 78.97% (as opposed to 75.25% for Sonic here at 2356 votes).

Well, you've got to add in a little for Hybrid CATS after all. <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 10/5/2006 9:16:33 PM | message detail
plus the board isn't nearly as keen on anti-voting Sonic as it is on doing so to Link

I don't recall the board every really anti-voting Link...?


Looks like Sonic shouldn't have trouble getting 80% by the end of this match.
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NewLib | Posted 10/5/2006 9:17:47 PM | message detail
I wouldnt be surprised if CATS just isnt getting weaker, really AYB has kind of faded out of my memory at least.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:17:48 PM | message detail
The board *never* anti-votes Link, they just like Sonic that much more. Isn't it Sonic who usually wins those Board 8 only tournaments that mirror the contests? Heck, does he ever really 'lose' the board vote?
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:18:46 PM | message detail
I wouldnt be surprised if CATS just isnt getting weaker, really AYB has kind of faded out of my memory at least.

CATS seemed stronger than ever last year though, face pic or not.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:19:22 PM | message detail
I wouldnt be surprised if CATS just isnt getting weaker, really AYB has kind of faded out of my memory at least.

CATS being his usual, low fodderific self at least wouldn't be surprising in the least. It's hard to make something out of a match against CATS, even though he has been able to project the winner of previous contests back when Link and Cloud were still apart of them. Oh those were the days...

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2006 9:19:41 PM | message detail
he lost it pretty decisively to Mega Man.. though that may be bracket voting.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:20:26 PM | message detail
Ah, brackets. The only thing the board loves more than anything else.

...YOUR BRACKETS ARE DEAD BY THE ELITE EIGHT PEOPLE STOP THAT
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2006 9:20:39 PM | message detail
oh yeah, Sonic's not slowing down here. gah, I miss CATS/Ansem.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2006 9:20:48 PM | message detail
Sonic performing better than Link is a side effect of the match not starting in the dead of the night.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Aprosenf | Posted 10/5/2006 9:20:50 PM | message detail
Sonic FTW of the male bracket !!
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:20:57 PM | message detail
That was an 81% update there for Sonic. Heh.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2006 9:21:48 PM | message detail
Also, opinions on who will be the Ultimate Loser this year?

Assuming cookie cutters have their way, looks like it will be Sub-Zero.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/5/2006 9:22:06 PM | message detail
The winner of Ganondorf/Vincent is so screwed.
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Sonic vs. CATS / Bracket: Sonic / Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf
NewLib | Posted 10/5/2006 9:23:12 PM | message detail
The reason why CATS seemed stronger last year was because MC still gets antivoted here. He cant blow characters completely out.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:23:16 PM | message detail
Also, opinions on who will be the Ultimate Loser this year?

Assuming cookie cutters have their way, looks like it will be Sub-Zero.


Uh, that would require Crono to lose to Sonic. That ain't cookie cutter.

The cookie cutter ultimate loser should be... *thinks* ...Ryu Hayabusa.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:23:58 PM | message detail
The reason why CATS seemed stronger last year was because MC still gets antivoted here. He cant blow characters completely out.

You still have to explain Villain Contest CATS.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Ed Bellis | Posted 10/5/2006 9:24:10 PM | message detail
...damn, beat me to it, KH, although I was gonna say Riku.
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This was Ed Bellis, servant to the mighty Guru Z1mZum. Congrats, buddy!
Draco1214 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:24:46 PM | message detail
You still have to explain Villain Contest CATS.

He was behind Ganondorf.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
charmander6000 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:24:49 PM | message detail
Also, opinions on who will be the Ultimate Loser this year?

Ryu H. < Dante < Yoshi < Solid Snake < Mega Man < Crono < Samus
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:24:58 PM | message detail
Couldn't that be helped by lowering Ganondorf?

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:25:00 PM | message detail
Well, Yoshi is the cookie cutter pick going by the Guru and BOP, even if most people would change to Dante now if they had the chance.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2006 9:25:14 PM | message detail
And about Mega Man not breaking 70% being a disappointment, you have to remember that usually he gets a 1 seed and a really weak 8 seed in the first round.

I wouldn't be surprised if Crono doesn't break 70% on Captain Falcon.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 9:25:44 PM | message detail
The cookie cutter ultimate loser should be... *thinks* ...Ryu Hayabusa.

More like Riku! Well, nowadays anyways. It'd be cool if it ended up as Phoenix Wright, and if he'd won, we could've seen it as Gordon Freeman again.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:25:45 PM | message detail
Ultimate loser in my bracket is...

Samus > Crono > Mega Man > Solid Snake > Dante > Yoshi > Riku
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Aprosenf | Posted 10/5/2006 9:25:47 PM | message detail
I could see the ultimate loser being Alyx Vance, Riku, or Ryu Hayabusa, but at this point it's looking extremely doubtful that Mega Man can beat the winner of Sonic/Crono.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:26:19 PM | message detail
From: HEROIC MARIO | Posted: 10/5/2006 11:24:58 PM | Message Detail
Couldn't that be helped by lowering Ganondorf?


DOES NOT COMPUTE
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2006 9:26:25 PM | message detail
Whoa, not sure what the hell I was thinking when I said Sub-Zero <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 9:26:59 PM | message detail
Oh, and if Samus loses (lol), we could see Alyx Vance as the ultimate loser, reviving the Half-Life tradition four years later.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:27:46 PM | message detail
Hey, now, the only thing I use in relation to Ganon from the VC contest is him performing 1% better than Bowser on Sephiroth. I take that and put him 1% ahead of Bowser in 2005 to get the most optimistic and hopeful value. =p

---
"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/5/2006 9:28:24 PM | message detail
And Sonic's at 77% and still climbing.

He could easily end this match at 85% if he can get a good enough day vote, which shouldn't be hard considering it's Sonic.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
creativename | Posted 10/5/2006 9:29:19 PM | message detail
That's exactly what I meant. What else could I mean?

Ah, I see. I thought you meant by the end of the match or something.


CATS being his usual, low fodderific self at least wouldn't be surprising in the least. It's hard to make something out of a match against CATS, even though he has been able to project the winner of previous contests back when Link and Cloud were still apart of them. Oh those were the days...

Thing is that he had basically the same exact pic in both those matches, and his Face pics were also the same. We know how pic-dependant CATS is, and this is a new pic we haven't seen before. Looks like it isn't a good one...


I wouldn't be surprised if Crono doesn't break 70% on Captain Falcon.

Hmmm...it would be surprising to me, but I could see that.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 9:30:16 PM | message detail
I *really* don't think 85% is going to be happening...even if we were talking about 2k4 CATS, you're talking about projecting Sonic to beat MARIO.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/5/2006 9:30:17 PM | message detail
He could easily end this match at 85% if he can get a good enough day vote, which shouldn't be hard considering it's Sonic.

That's ... crazy. CATS being below 15% on BL?
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Sonic vs. CATS / Bracket: Sonic / Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/5/2006 9:30:53 PM | message detail
And Sonic's at 77% and still climbing.

Well, he actually dropped there just now. I would imagine he'll hang around 77% for a while before making a run at 80%.

He could easily end this match at 85% if he can get a good enough day vote, which shouldn't be hard considering it's Sonic.

I really doubt he gets that high. I'm expecting 82% for him at best here. He's not Link and even with that day vote favoring, it would be very hard for him to reach the mid-80s. It's really hard to get that high.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 10/5/2006 9:30:54 PM | message detail
More like Sonic being above BL !!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
MarioSuperstar | Posted 10/5/2006 9:31:52 PM | message detail
Or that too!
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Sonic vs. CATS / Bracket: Sonic / Vote: Sonic (23/24)
Tomorrow / Bracket: Vincent / Vote: Ganondorf
NewLib | Posted 10/5/2006 9:33:07 PM | message detail
Really, if you take CATS 2004 value, which if anything is his purest value, I believe Sonic actually needs to get 83-17 to equal his 2005 value.

So I dont see this match looking anything out of the ordinary.
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--NL--
Z1mZum made me look like Toadette. And made me nominate her.