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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 377

Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/5/2006 3:37:20 PM | message detail
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Tier 1 - Clinkeroth

Cloud
Link
Sephiroth
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Tier 2 - The Rest of the Noble 9

Mario
Crono
Samus
Sonic
Snake
Megaman
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Tier 3 - Elites

Bowser
Vincent
Squall
Tifa Lockheart
Ganondorf
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Tier 4 - Near Elites

Aeris
Dante
Zelda
Kirby
Zero
Knuckles
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
janembaman | Posted 10/5/2006 3:40:09 PM | message detail
Tifa>Zero?
Why?
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your lives that I spit on are now but a caricature of a cartoon by a kid who is stupid!
Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/5/2006 3:42:01 PM | message detail
She was > Zero last year. Add in KHII and you can take it from there.
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Scooped in a coupe, Snoop we got news/Your girl was trickin' while you was draped in your county blues
I ain't been out a second/And already gotta do some mutha****in chin checkin
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 3:42:15 PM | message detail
KH2 boost most likely.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/5/2006 3:46:28 PM | message detail
Correct me if I'm wrong (I'm not), but if I recall correctly, it was you saying that Dirge of Cerberus was going to be a good game because they were fixing all the mistakes that the japanese version had.

Ding! Before the bracket release, I made some stupid argument about DoC hurting Vincent and Squall being the favourite in a rematch (I had forgotten about Post-FFX2 Yuna and Post-DMC2 Dante). HM was the main one arguing with me there. "You honestly don't think Vincent is going to get a decent boost from a game starring him? Besides, they're likely going to fix the US version anyway." That was roughly what he said.

Thanks for reminding me, TRT.

What say you, HM?
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AC2K6 Score: 24/24 Today: Megaman
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 3:47:33 PM | message detail
He'll say he was crazy -- back then. Mega Man > Samus crazy! BUT NOW HE'S SEEN THE LIGHT!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/5/2006 3:50:19 PM | message detail
Something like that. >_>

It sucks that I'm agreenig more and more with Smurf lately. :( I feel somehow wrong. But I'm liking Snake > Megaman and Sonic > Crono right now. I obviously don't agree with MM being out of the noble nine, though.
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AC2K6 Score: 24/24 Today: Megaman
MasterMoltar | Posted 10/5/2006 3:50:40 PM | message detail
*scrolls past some of these tiers*

I think my eyes are bleeding...
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It's MOOOOOOLLLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!
therealmnm | Posted 10/5/2006 3:53:15 PM | message detail
Mega Man/Snake 2004 was flukish. I think Snake will pull closer than he did in 2k3, but Mega Man will still eke out a victory. I say it will go 52-48. I want Sonic to beat Crono and nearly took the upset... But something just didn't seem right. Sonic already overperformed his ass off against Mega Man. Even if it was totally legit, I don't see him stepping up AGAIN to take out Crono. He might make it close, but I don't see him winning. I hope I'm wrong though.
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wavedash101 | Posted 10/5/2006 3:53:18 PM | message detail
Tifa and Squall over Zelda, Zero, and Ganon?

I am trying to figure out how one reaches this outrageous conclusion?

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Board 8's Unofficial Master of the Phoenix Down
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 3:55:28 PM | message detail
With KH2, it's not really that hard of a conclusion to make. Tifa and Squall are already above or on par with at least Zelda and Zero going just by the 2k5 stats, and they have KH2 (and it's Tifa's first KH game, for kicks). Ganny's the big wild card, but he could possibly be weaker.
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*kills self*
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2006 3:56:46 PM | message detail
Smurf would have to feed Sonic about 5000 votes for Sonic to win that, and even then it might not be enough. There are signs of a swingback in Square's favor this contest.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
janembaman | Posted 10/5/2006 3:57:39 PM | message detail
Tifa and Squall over Zelda, Zero, and Ganon?

I am trying to figure out how one reaches this outrageous conclusion?

Well,Squall got 60% on Luigi and 55% on Kirby
And Zero>Kirby & Luigi is debatable so...
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your lives that I spit on are now but a caricature of a cartoon by a kid who is stupid!
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/5/2006 3:58:29 PM | message detail
I want Sonic to beat Crono and nearly took the upset... But something just didn't seem right. Sonic already overperformed his ass off against Mega Man. Even if it was totally legit, I don't see him stepping up AGAIN to take out Crono.

I'm banking on Crono FINALLY decreasing...and the new, younger influx of voters voting for the character who has had the most recent exposure; Sonic the Hedgehog.

Of course, it's a complete gamble and Crono's the favourite. But with the right voter shift, it could happen. Younger voters have especially come in since KH2. A KH2 Sonic boost? CRAZY, you say? *Scoffs*

>_>
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AC2K6 Score: 24/24 Today: Megaman
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 3:58:38 PM | message detail
I'm adhering to a strict policy of giving Nintendo characters at least a 5% advantage in favorite status against Square characters around their level until a non-Noble Square character gets over the hump against a Ninty one. If Vincent beats Ganondorf I'll feel much more confident in Square, but 'till then...
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trannyscience | Posted 10/5/2006 3:59:16 PM | message detail
I'm banking on Crono FINALLY decreasing...and the new, younger influx of voters voting for the character who has had the most recent exposure; Sonic the Hedgehog.

I've heard this before... as in last year, and probably the year before..
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/5/2006 3:59:27 PM | message detail
I'm banking on Crono FINALLY decreasing...and the new, younger influx of voters voting for the character who has had the most recent exposure

People say this EVERY SINGLE YEAR.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
XIII_rocks | Posted 10/5/2006 3:59:40 PM | message detail
For the record, the least I expect from Sonic this year is to outperform Megaman on Crono. If he doesn't even manage that, I'll definitely be sceptical about him in the future.
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XIII_rocks | Posted 10/5/2006 4:03:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, well it could finally happen this year! I mean, it's been 10 years since Crono's last appearance or something. People turn 13 every day. Crono would still have a massive fanbase to work off, but Sonic's is increasing while Crono's remains pretty much stagnant and/or dropping.


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Draco1214 | Posted 10/5/2006 4:03:50 PM | message detail
Sonic won't beat Crono because, let's face it, Sonic is the NN's biggest choker. Blowing away a 1500 vote lead to Samus in the final hours of a poll in which he was the overwhelming favorite to win, getting doubled by Cloud, not even bothering to show up to the rematch against Samus, choking against Mega Man when he was in a perfect position to steal the match from him. I'd be surprised if he took down Crono.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:04:31 PM | message detail
There is a big argument for Crono decreasing in 2005, of course. Not by anything monumental, but depending on who you use to adjust the stats Crono could have taken a bit of a dip.

Of course, what you would attribute said dip to, whether it be CT aging or just random variation, is up to you.
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MyworldisSmurf | Posted 10/5/2006 4:07:18 PM | message detail
Crono's performances have at times already suggested that he's in decline.

But the x-stat system in place, rewards only a characters final performance. Of which, he tends to do very well. He has a dedicated fanbase, but not a huge one.

Which means that its very easy to overperform on him when you're losing, very difficult to overperform on him when you're winning.

The thing that I'm mostly intrested in his the voter increase this year. Those increases are not from Cronos base. Those are mostly new school gamers. That will be Crono's downfall.
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My World is still Smurf!
therealmnm | Posted 10/5/2006 4:08:17 PM | message detail
Why do people continually hold Sonic's loss to Mega Man against him? Sure, he gave away a lead but he wasn't even supposed to be in the match in the first place! And he still only barely lost. That's like saying Squall is a choker because he failed to capitalize on Vincent keeping him in the match or something...
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/5/2006 4:09:45 PM | message detail
But it was the way Sonic lost that was humiliating. He had built up a ton of momentum during the day and was on his way to coming back when all of a sudden his momentum just...stopped. Then Mega Man used the second night vote to pull away. I still think that was his biggest choke.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
LeonhartForever | Posted 10/5/2006 4:10:14 PM | message detail
...Samus had better odds to win SC2K2 than Sonic did. He wasn't the overwhelming favorite. Besides, calling Sonic a choker for losing that is tantamount to calling Crono a choker for losing to Mario in 2003. It wasn't entirely legitimately his fault.

And I really don't know why people consider losing to Mega Man a choke job when few people gave him any chance of even being competitive.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Character Battle V Championship:
Round 1: Status of Tidus - LIONHEART'D
Haste_2 | Posted 10/5/2006 4:11:45 PM | message detail
Yay for Axel. Even Axel's biggest supporters weren't expecting him to do this well... makes me wonder if Riku or Sora are more popular than anyone imagined.

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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/5/2006 4:13:05 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/5/2006 4:13:39 PM | message detail
Samus > Crono > Snake > Megaman > Sonic

Book it.
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Pride. Power. Pinstripes.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:15:07 PM | message detail
Yeah, this match is making me feel marginally better about Yoshi's chances against Dante. Axel is getting 30% on Mega Man, and he's not even in Riku's league.

Actually, Riku 2k5 will only be projected to get 53% or so on Axel by the end of this, I think, assuming a static Mega Man. That's phenomenal.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Cavalier Lowen | Posted 10/5/2006 4:16:07 PM | message detail
The Snake support here is absolutely ridiculous. Just because you all love him so much does not mean he's going to beat Mega Man. It'd be nice to see some facts other than "Snake is teh badass and Axel=fodder".
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Z1mZum owned me in the guru contest (by two points!). Damn you Z1mZum!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:17:55 PM | message detail
Cry for me.
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SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/5/2006 4:18:47 PM | message detail
Because being in a Smash Bros. game hasn't done anything for anyone ever.(I'm aware it's not out yet, but still).

+Subsistance
+MGS4
+Look at Mega Man, honestly

I really don't see how it's impossible.
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Pride. Power. Pinstripes.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 4:18:48 PM | message detail
Blowing away a 1500 vote lead to Samus in the final hours of a poll in which he was the overwhelming favorite to win

Well, Samus was a bigger favorite to win 2k2 than Sonic was, and her prediction percentage wasn't that bad, so I'm skeptical about Sonic actually being the favorite in that match.

Yeah, this match is making me feel marginally better about Yoshi's chances against Dante. Axel is getting 30% on Mega Man, and he's not even in Riku's league.

Actually, Riku 2k5 will only be projected to get 53% or so on Axel by the end of this, I think, assuming a static Mega Man. That's phenomenal.


Is Axel really that far behind Riku? Axel's CoM role seems like it would've been enough to make him high end fodder even before KH2...and who's KH2 role was bigger, Axel's or Riku's?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/5/2006 4:20:06 PM | message detail
Riku's was bigger, but only slightly.
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Now playing: Okami
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:21:26 PM | message detail
Is Axel really that far behind Riku? Axel's CoM role seems like it would've been enough to make him high end fodder even before KH2...

Trust me, it wouldn't have. KH: CoM's sales weren't anything to really gush over and it was recieved with minimal fanfare...it did get a bit more play thanks to KH2, but that's to be expected. I love Axel for CoM, but...it's CoM.

and who's KH2 role was bigger, Axel's or Riku's?

Axel's, assuredly, but Riku's just in an entirely different league than him.
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Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 4:21:28 PM | message detail
As for KH2 affecting all of Square:

Just look at the series contest. If KH2 had boosted all Square, Final Fantasy should've done much better than it did. Otherwise, even Mario would've beat it last year, and Zelda would've crushed it even harder.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
MasterMoltar | Posted 10/5/2006 4:21:47 PM | message detail
Snake will beat Mega Man in '07.

And I wouldn't expect Axel to be that close to Riku...
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Back from the shadows...
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:22:49 PM | message detail
As for KH2 affecting all of Square:

Just look at the series contest. If KH2 had boosted all Square, Final Fantasy should've done much better than it did. Otherwise, even Mario would've beat it last year, and Zelda would've crushed it even harder.


...and what's to say that wouldn't have happened? The board's expectations? I'm sorry, but that's what got the FF brackets slaughtered in the first place.
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Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 4:23:02 PM | message detail
Trust me, it wouldn't have. KH: CoM's sales weren't anything to really gush over and it was recieved with minimal fanfare...it did get a bit more play thanks to KH2, but that's to be expected. I love Axel for CoM, but...it's CoM.

So, where would you rank CoM Axel in the stats? Ulti suggested he'd be above Axel, which would put him around 19%.
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Yes, I asked this before, but I didn't get many answers. >_<.
therealmnm | Posted 10/5/2006 4:23:21 PM | message detail
And seriously, Axel's role in KH2 was a letdown after CoM. Sure he was awesome in the beginning... but nothing really distinguished him from the rest of Organization XIII after that. I'd even say that Demyx stole the show from him in KH2. Axel's cool design nonwithstanding, if he didn't have CoM and all the preview hype, I'd put him as Demyx's equal in popularity.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:23:55 PM | message detail
I assume you mean pre-KH2 Ansem there...no, I don't see CoM Axel above him. But then again, he's the self-proclaimed master of all things KH, so don't listen to me!
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2006 4:24:17 PM | message detail
Axel had an extremely annoying catch phrase that people love to orgasm over though

+10 popularity points
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/5/2006 4:24:53 PM | message detail
Not to mention that Demyx's boss fight was superior to Axel's.
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CB5 Points: 21/23, Current Oracle placement: 31/162
Now playing: Okami
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:25:14 PM | message detail
"Commit it to memory." > anything Mega Man has done

...yes, I'm aware that's not the phrase that people orgasm over. BUT IT SHOULD BE.
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therealmnm | Posted 10/5/2006 4:27:41 PM | message detail
Pre-KH2 Axel still > Ansem to me. KH2 only allowed Axel to fully realize his potential among the fanbase. He was still incredibly hyped before the release of CoM/KH2. And KH fans ate up every single preview tidbit that was dropped after KH (including Deep Dive, etc.) Or am I the only one who remembered the tons of discussions about "Unknown 1", "Duel-wielding unknown", etc.?
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MasterMoltar | Posted 10/5/2006 4:27:45 PM | message detail
Demyx's boss fight was annoying. In fact, I can't remember much else about him save that fight. Axel's role in KH2 was still much bigger than his.
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Back from the shadows...
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/5/2006 4:28:04 PM | message detail
Heh, I'd say that MM7's ending is enough to put Mega Man over anything Axel's done. In 8 games, that was Mega Man's ONE great moment, but it was absolutely incredible.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
therealmnm | Posted 10/5/2006 4:28:39 PM | message detail
Demyx's boss fight was annoying. In fact, I can't remember much else about him save that fight. Axel's role in KH2 was still much bigger than his.

DANCE WATER DANCE! You really need to lurk among the KH fanbase more... <_<;
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LeonhartForever | Posted 10/5/2006 4:28:43 PM | message detail
Is Axel really that far behind Riku? Axel's CoM role seems like it would've been enough to make him high end fodder even before KH2...

But Riku's portion of Chain of Memories is generally considered to be the highlight of the game, so...it'd cancel out at best.

and who's KH2 role was bigger, Axel's or Riku's?

Axel's role wasn't that large in KHII, at least in terms of screen time, once you get past the introduction with Roxas. If you actually beat the game, Riku will have left a bigger impression on you, I think.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/5/2006 4:29:47 PM | message detail
You're certainly not the only one, mnm, but you're talking about the HARDCORE fanbase there, the one that followed and gobbled up the previews like crazy. That's like saying Midna would have any semblance of strength if we just threw her in the contest right now. Sure, she'll have the hardcore Zelda vote, but to everyone else she simply wouldn't be recognized.
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