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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 376

Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:26:03 PM | message detail
Yoshi? Mega Man? Claire?

Mega Man is performing around expectations right now. Yoshi hit exactly where he needed to with a factored in KH2 boost. And I'm not sure where you got the idea that Claire underperformed.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:26:04 PM | message detail
After this match, it's almost impossible to rule out some kind of KH2F.
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CB5 Points: 21/23, Current Oracle placement: 31/162
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UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/4/2006 9:26:50 PM | message detail
Because he's the KING OF SFF. No questions asked.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:26:55 PM | message detail
37.5% had Ryu over Dante, Duke Nukem, and Ryo Hazuki. I don't think his support is that bad, but Ryu had a bad seed for the time ever this contest.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:27:06 PM | message detail
It's more like a Kingdom Hearts II boost, not a "factor," and it was expected to happen. This isn't some shocking new revelation that shows this massive shift or anything.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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cyko | Posted 10/4/2006 9:27:16 PM | message detail
QUICK , WITHOUT THINKING - who wins between Gordon Freeman and Axel?

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:28:01 PM | message detail
It's too bad that all the Kingdom Hearts II characters (and Squall/Auron), have paths that are pretty much set in stone. Looks like the best chance that gang has to turn this contest on its ear lies with Aeris, and I'm anything but confident in her ability to beat Zelda.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
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Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:28:13 PM | message detail
This makes me want to see Zero's cataclysmic prediction percentage if he makes it out of his fourpack alive.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:28:13 PM | message detail
Axel.

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Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:28:32 PM | message detail
Axel.

GFNWMTO. Got it commited to memory?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:30:12 PM | message detail
Ick, I'd probably take Axel based on KH2 alone. Gordon seems like an oddball more and more every day. I'd hesitate to take him over say, Tingle though.

...no, this doesn't mean Mega Man will struggle in the slightest against Sora...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:30:50 PM | message detail
Actually, I just went temporarily insane and forgot that Tingle is reviled. Gimme Axel there, big time.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HaRRicH | Posted 10/4/2006 9:46:44 PM | message detail
Axel's not doing bad here...but, like, what roles has he had in each KH game? Was he even in KH1?
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:47:06 PM | message detail
He wasn't in KH1, but was in CoM and KH2.

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transience | Posted 10/4/2006 9:56:34 PM | message detail
I don't know how this says anything about Yoshi vs. Dante. what were you expecting, 80+%? MM may be the king of blowout wins, but Axel's still from the current GOTY on this site.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:59:17 PM | message detail
Like I've said before, 30% from Axel gets me antsy one way or the other...but barring a very massive day vote (and really, Sora lost a bit of ground to TINGLE) it's not getting near that.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:00:32 PM | message detail
I've never played KH2, but is Axel more of a joke / fad character than anything else? all I ever hear about him is the got it memorized thing. if so, I'd kind of expect a night vote of sorts.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/4/2006 10:05:22 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Starion | Posted 10/4/2006 10:06:27 PM | message detail
People seem to like his personality too. I think so myself.
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:08:13 PM | message detail
Axel is a fairly likable character with a decent role in KH2 (never playted CoM), but his catchphrase is, fittingly, the most memorable thing about him. It's sort of like Squall and '...Whatever.' or Colette and 'I'm sorry.'
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:08:49 PM | message detail
I've never played KH2, but is Axel more of a joke / fad character than anything else? all I ever hear about him is the got it memorized thing. if so, I'd kind of expect a night vote of sorts.

*POSSIBLE EXTREMELY MINOR SPOILERS*

He's got a couple of great scenes and an awesome boss fight. From what I've heard, he also rules in CoM, so yeah, the fanbase thinks he's the real deal.
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:14:34 PM | message detail
Hmm... Axel has done a good job of holding his own for the past 20 minutes. Let's remember that between the morning vote and the end of the poll, Riku gained 2.6% on Yoshi. If Axel has the typical Kingdom Hearts day vote, he should definitely avoid the tripling.
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transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:17:51 PM | message detail
I think the overnight vote will go to Mega Man first though. I'd expect this to get into the 76's before the daytime.

..who am I kidding? I have no idea how this match is going to go. that just sounds good to me.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 10:20:56 PM | message detail
These two 77% updates certainly help that prediction out!

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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:22:13 PM | message detail
I think that sounds pretty good. Even at 76 (or even 77) though, Axel may have the potential to shake off the tripling like a case of fleas.

I love how I'm making him sound so powerful while he's getting tripled. GO AXEL!!! =P
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transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:30:10 PM | message detail
assuming a tripling, Axel's looking at 19.4% on BL. I guess Kratos Aurion would be a good match for him if that's right.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 10:32:42 PM | message detail
That's also around Ocelot's level, though...I really wouldn't expect Ocelot to struggle all that much with Axel.

Then again, I *do* have Snake > Mega Man... <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:33:05 PM | message detail
Hmm... Kratos Aurion? That's one match where I completely ignore any stat values and take Axel to kill him.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 10:34:35 PM | message detail
Well, Aurion is probably significantly weaker than he was then, but even back in 2k5 his performance on Diablo seemed a little too good. I'd take most of the people around his level to beat him with ease, too.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:34:51 PM | message detail
yeah, I'd do the same. the more popular RPG wins out every time there.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 10:35:17 PM | message detail
Ocelot is on Kratos Aurion's level?! Man, no wonder lol x-stats got so big.

THAT IS JUST FUNNY.
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transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:35:31 PM | message detail
yeah, me too. I'd probably take Zidane over Kratos as well. Terra as well.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/4/2006 10:36:45 PM | message detail
Significantly weaker? When Sheena herself is currently projected to finish around 18% on BL?
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 10:38:00 PM | message detail
To be fair, that's dependent on where Jill ends up. There's still a fairly large range for Sheena to end up in.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:38:41 PM | message detail
I don't think Kratos would be weaker now than he was then, though I question whether he could get enough votes to eclipse 50% if the other character was well-known. Kratos vs. someone like Pac-Man would be a no-brainer to me.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Who Cares? | Posted 10/4/2006 10:40:20 PM | message detail
True, but unless Jill really tanks, she won't look too bad!

And personally, I've felt that Aurion should replace Vyse as our new fodder line since last year, since ToS still has a bit more life to it than SoA at the moment.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 5 days until Tales of the Abyss*
transience | Posted 10/4/2006 10:42:12 PM | message detail
fodder line candidates? I've thought of Kratos as the fodder line for the last year, him or KOS-MOS. I think Kefka would make a good fodder line if you raise the standard a point or so, since I don't see him getting much weaker. he seems like he'd be pretty stable.
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Query "Results" failed: You have an error in your SQL syntax. Check the manual that corresponds to your MySQL server version for the right syntax to use near ' WHERE Gordon.IsWinner = True AND Predic || Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 10:50:08 PM | message detail
I've always treated Kefka as the fodder line. The second you start losing to him, you're too pathetic for me to take into consideration for a nomination.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2006 11:54:26 PM | message detail
Mega Man stablizes at the triple! With the KH day vote, how high will Axel go?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Zylo the wolf | Posted 10/5/2006 12:56:27 AM | message detail
I'm not sure if I like how Megaman is doing.

Sora got 75.61% on Tingle, which I think is equal or perhaps even little stronger than Axel, while Megaman can't even triple Axel.

Then again I admit that I've never played KH2 and don't know if Axel is a cool character, but I think he's around Ansem's strength...

I mean, Megaman isn't even increasing his lead with 100 votes right now....

And after Sora the blue bomber has to face Snake :(
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2006 1:10:14 AM | message detail
I have no idea how Axel is cutting into Mega Man's percentage during the dead of night. This goes against everything we know about Kingdom Hearts' voting patterns. At this rate, it's kind of difficult for me to picture Axel winning the day vote. I mean... Mega Man surges during the first hour and Axel spends the next 23 trimming away at the percentage? Doesn't seem plausible at all.

This theory might sound a bit out there, but perhaps Axel's voting patterns may go against the grain because he's exclusive to Kingdom Hearts II? He's probably the only character we'll ever see who holds that distinction, and I can't think of any other reasons why his voting patterns would be different, let alone completely reversed.

Ah well, I'm not going to get any sleep tonight (go to hell, college), so I'll be able to watch everything LIVE AS IT HAPPENS.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2006 1:15:18 AM | message detail
Well, Axel was in CoM as well, so I don't see why his pattern would be different from the other KH people. Maybe it's that European KH vote finally kicking in. KH2 did release there on the Riku vs Yoshi matchup. Then, people were probably too busy playing the actual game, while now they have some time to vote.

At the rate this is going, Axel just might have a chance to go above 30%.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2006 1:17:45 AM | message detail
I was thinking Europe might have a big hand in this, but enough to completely reverse the traditional trend? I hope I'm not alone in thinking that Mega Man would be tearing Sora or Riku apart at this time of night.
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2006 1:35:58 AM | message detail
Ouch, fairly bad updates for Mega Man. Only 67% and 68% from the last 2 updates.

Looks like KHF might be a big factor this year.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/5/2006 1:36:35 AM | message detail
Yeah, wow, those are pretty significant.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2006 1:40:47 AM | message detail
Seriously. Axel is just ripping away percentage now. I love Axel and I love disorder, so naturally, this is just the pwn. If he somehow gets the KH day vote on top of this, he WILL approach 30%, and everyone WILL be going nuts. Sora over Mega Man? No way. Snake over Mega Man? Yes, that one will spread like wildfire, and you better believe I'll be doing a lot of the spreading. =P
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Gaddswell | Posted 10/5/2006 2:06:18 AM | message detail
I'm starting to fear for my bracket now. Mega Man just recieved his worse update yet with only 64.6% of the vote. If Axel is doing this good, Yoshi vs Dante might be closer than what was first suggested with Riku vs Yoshi. My Dante > Yoshi pick just might be in danger.

Also, if Gordon continues his tradition of going out with 40%, Phoenix will end up getting overrated through Sora and Sora vs Mega Man.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2006 2:23:38 AM | message detail
Yoshi/Dante was one of the most debated matches in the bracket; there really wasn't a safe option there, so it was risky either way. Also, there isn't a realistic reason to believe Gordon's 40% streak will continue. He's facing someone who probably has the strength to beat Ryu without much trouble this year. Gordon just can't compete.

In reality, while a big KHII boost would be fun and breathe some life into the rankings, it probably won't change the actual results. Almost all of the entrants who would be affected by such a boost (KH characters themselves, Squall, Tifa, Auron) have paths that are almost absolutely set in stone. The only possible winners I could see coming from this are Aeris and maaaaaaaybe Cloud. Kind of a bummer that the two characters who have the best chance to capitalize have to face the hottest series on GameFAQs right now, but they, them's the breaks.

Of course, Vincent can definitely beat Ganondorf, and he could have gotten a tiny boost as a result of KHII, but he shouldn't be considered part of the actual KH ensemble for obvious reasons.
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The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/5/2006 2:37:14 AM | message detail
Axel seems like the kind of guy that might appeal more to a night demographic when compared to other KH characters.

Still... I'd be surprised if a KH didn't do better in the day than the night regardless
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/5/2006 2:43:55 AM | message detail
I find it a bit difficult to imagine Axel continue to gain for the next 18 hours, but anything can happen. If he does do better in the day, however, Mega Man will be questioned by everyone.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
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