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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 376

Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2006 9:01:08 PM | message detail
Mega Man 76.19% 16
Axel 23.81% 5
TOTAL VOTES 21
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/4/2006 9:01:27 PM | message detail
The first <50% match was Ryu/Kratos? Damn.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:01:54 PM | message detail
Damn, I didn't go low enough !!

...wow, the board absolutely slaughtered the casuals on that one.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
cyko | Posted 10/4/2006 9:02:04 PM | message detail
Mega Man 74.15% 304
Axel 25.85% 106
TOTAL VOTES 410


what's this ? Axel doing better than expected with just the BOARD VOTE?!?! BE AFRAID!!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:02:06 PM | message detail
Why hello there Kratos as the bracket favorite!


Mega Man 74.15% 304
Axel 25.85% 106
TOTAL VOTES 410

lol board vote!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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ShadowOwns | Posted 10/4/2006 9:02:07 PM | message detail
lol @ prediction %
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2 days! Lovin Oil Country.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2006 9:02:09 PM | message detail
It's probably all those brackets who went with all the higher seeds.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/4/2006 9:02:12 PM | message detail
You've got to be kidding. That's a terribly low prediction percentage for a match like that.
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:03:35 PM | message detail
Man, as if Kratos's potential wasn't high enough, he's already got the casuals in the palm of his hand.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:03:39 PM | message detail
48.9%?! Heh, my TI-83 is teh prophesier!

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RPGuy96 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:03:44 PM | message detail
All round one matches with <50% Prediction Percentage:

1. StarCraft over Halo: 24.09%
2. Castlevania over Halo: 31.49%
3. WarCraft over Grand Theft Auto 33.94%
4. Knuckles over Magus: 35.08%
5. Vivi over Donkey Kong: 35.13%
6. Tommy Vercetti over Kefka: 37.66%
7. Pac-Man over Revolver Ocelot: 38.36%
8. Master Hand over Kuja: 39.11%
9. Shadow over Wario: 42.10%
10. Morrigan over Spyro: 42.30%
11 KOS-MOS over Crash: 42.50%
12. Knuckles over Kefka: 43.05%
13. Kefka over Pac-Man 43.50%
14. Leon Kennedy over Gordon Freeman: 43.62%
15. Tina Armstrong over Gordon Freeman: 43.70%
16. Frog over Liquid Snake: 44.33%
17. Kingdom Hearts over Soul Calibur: 45.45%
18. Miles "Tails" Prower over Viewtiful Joe: 46.30%
19. Zero over Scorpion: 47.30%
20. Ganondorf over Tidus: 47.70%
21. Super Mario RPG over Street Fighter II: 47.83%
22. XenoGears over Pokemon G/S/C: 48.20%
23. Diablo over Ridley: 48.32%
24. Ryu Hayabusa over Jill Valentine: 48.56%
25. Ryu over Kratos: 48.99%

Can't say I expected that to be the first match added this contest.
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Mustache...and green...
http://www.rit.edu/~zmb0386/Top100.pdf
cyko | Posted 10/4/2006 9:04:41 PM | message detail
and, hey!! i've got an alt on the Top 50 up there at #44!!! w00t!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Shivan Reincarnated | Posted 10/4/2006 9:04:43 PM | message detail
We lost another Edouble account
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Let the snow fall deep, the rain drive down, and the wind buffet my cloak. I care not for I've a road worth walking ~ Drizzt Do'Urden
Big Bob | Posted 10/4/2006 9:04:45 PM | message detail
If you don't remember, Kratos was also the casual favorite against Alucard.
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"You sound awfully annoyed for a guy with a furry fetish and a half-cat girlfriend." - Grace, El Goonish Shive
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2006 9:05:02 PM | message detail
Let's just say I can't wait to see what the Blast division does to the casual brackets

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:05:19 PM | message detail
Huzzah! Mega Man with the tripling!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:05:34 PM | message detail
If you don't remember, Kratos was also the casual favorite against Alucard.

Technically Alucard had more brackets, though I suppose some of those weren't 'casual' per se...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/4/2006 9:05:36 PM | message detail
Woo, MM! Blast him apart!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Shodges964 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:05:50 PM | message detail
thats pretty sad for Leon's as well...
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http://img50.imageshack.us/img50/4830/fantafevahjw2.png
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 9:06:06 PM | message detail
Let's just say I can't wait to see what the Blast division does to the casual brackets

It'll be a blast to watch all those brackets get blasted!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Kratos vs. Ryu - Bracket: Ryu - Vote: Ryu (21/22)
cyko | Posted 10/4/2006 9:06:18 PM | message detail
and XD!!! @ the Oracle Site:

Match #23 - Strider Hiryu vs Ryu (Street Fighter)
Winner: Strider Hiryu - 57.11%


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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2006 9:07:02 PM | message detail
Speaking of things that are a blast, when are you going to open signups for guest crews for round 2 of the male half <_<

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
outback | Posted 10/4/2006 9:11:06 PM | message detail
How did so much of the Top 50 miss that one? I jumped from #47 to #31 on the leaderboard there.
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I did well in SpC2k6, but not well enough to beat Z1mZum!
øütßá©k *Truly Gone Fishing* </end shameless plug>
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:12:48 PM | message detail
Axel's doing pretty well.

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creativename | Posted 10/4/2006 9:14:12 PM | message detail
Can't say I expected that to be the first match added this contest.

Indeed, very surprising...it's not like people don't know who Ryu is, especially when it said (Street Fighter) on the bracket.

Axel doing decent here. I wouldn't think this match would have overly big swings during the day.
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Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:14:31 PM | message detail
...How badly did the BOP kill the casuals on this match?
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/4/2006 9:14:46 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
22-----566------69.7879859
21-----2381-----58.6308274
20-----5630-----49.7513321
19-----7150-----49.6643357
18-----7298-----48.7667854
17-----6243-----47.6213359
16-----4896-----47.2630719
15-----3337-----45.7896314
14-----2158-----45.8758109
13-----1261-----45.5194290
12-----755------45.8278146
11-----388------46.9072165
10-----166------51.2048193
9------82-------62.1951220
8------35-------62.8571429
7------13-------76.9230769
6------13-------46.1538462
5------30-------66.6666667
4------48-------33.3333333
3------54-------44.4444444
2------82-------48.7804878
1------39-------17.9487179
0------21-------4.7619048

Overall prediction percentage: 48.99%

On a match barely anybody on the board thought about for longer 2 seconds before choosing Ryu we have out first prediction percentage upset! The perfects do signifcantly better than the -1s who do significantly better than the -2s. From there the prediction percentage only declines slightly as you go towards the -9s before coming back up again. The 0s make killing on this match. Only 1 of them got the match "wrong".

18 people fell off the Top 50 today. Spiky_Plank, braktheman, ser136, what_the_hache, AjOj, gatorbait685, Turdburglar, TheLoneGunmanV1, spitfox, HellElemental, Tenkaido, thejewce, Duelist6, yourhere7, centarian07, the_avenger07, hallb and the 2nd Alucard bracket Edouble242 fell off the Top 50. Two parts of The Plan down, one to go. Or maybe the two falling was part of The Plan...
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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
Support Toadette for the Summer 2006 Contest!
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 9:15:13 PM | message detail
whoa, Mega Man just dropped a ton
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:15:43 PM | message detail
Oh wow. Great job by Axel so far.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:16:19 PM | message detail
1. StarCraft over Halo: 24.09%
2. Castlevania over Halo: 31.49%


Oh wow, I just noticed that.

Poor Halo. >_>
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:17:04 PM | message detail
Mega Man is so screwed...against Ganon!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/4/2006 9:17:44 PM | message detail
I would fellate Axel if given the chance.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:17:49 PM | message detail
Good job, Axel!

Looks like he was a nomination well spent.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Aprosenf | Posted 10/4/2006 9:18:04 PM | message detail
Mega Man is so screwed against....Sonic !!

(Oh yes, I'm implying what you think I'm implying)
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:18:47 PM | message detail
Wow...Axel might pull Mega Man down to like 72%. KH is the king of day vote and all, and Mega Man is better at night.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:19:10 PM | message detail
Silly HM, everyone knows Mega Man's losing to Snake and then he'll go on to beat Samus!

I figure this will be done with Snake forfeiting the match at the end and then Mega Man moving on to beat Crono and crush Samus. Then he moves on to the Battle Royale to get 90-10'd by Alucard. All part of The Plan and such.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 9:19:49 PM | message detail
Mega Man did pretty good vs. Sonic.. the only time it really suffered was that initial after-school vote. I think of Mega Man as being decent at every time of the day.

I wouldn't overreact from one update though. let's see what happens next..
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:19:49 PM | message detail
Mega Man should easily take the true night vote and the dead hours, but the day vote will almost certainly go Axel's way.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
KleenexTissue50 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:19:51 PM | message detail
72.75% for Mega Man. Got it Memorized?
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CB5 Points: 21/23, Current Oracle placement: 31/162
Now playing: Okami
Starion | Posted 10/4/2006 9:20:50 PM | message detail
Anyone have the prediction percentage for Ryu vs Dante? I get the feeling that the more casual voters tend to underestimate Ryu.
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Currently playing: Dark Cloud 2 - Medal hunting (303/396)
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 9:20:56 PM | message detail
heh, yet another 75% update. I really have no idea how this match is going to turn out. I guess 74% is a good guess.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/4/2006 9:21:41 PM | message detail
I would cunniling Alyx Vance... given the chance.

KB
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:22:00 PM | message detail
I think Axel will avoid the tripling, but he won't do well enough to push for 30%.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:23:08 PM | message detail
I believe 32.76% of the brackets had Ryu out of his fourpack in 2k3, though it's hard to tell with that weird page setup that contest had. <_<
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/4/2006 9:24:02 PM | message detail
Guys, it has to be pretty clear. The KHF is at work here and pretty serioulsy.


Squall, Axel, Riku, Sora, and Kairi have done quite well. Most of them have made it seem like their opponent underpreformed.

KB
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/4/2006 9:24:21 PM | message detail
This makes me feel a lot better about Yoshi > Dante. There's some sick KH2F going on here if Axel gets above 25% against the KING OF SFF.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 9:24:34 PM | message detail
Squall, Axel, Riku, Sora, and Kairi have done quite well. Most of them have made it seem like their opponent underpreformed.

...Squall being the only one.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:24:42 PM | message detail
Now that's what I'm talking about!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Kyle Bowen | Posted 10/4/2006 9:25:05 PM | message detail
Yoshi? Mega Man? Claire?


KB
charmander6000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:25:52 PM | message detail
Wait, why would the King of SFF get SFF in this match?
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush