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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 376

trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 6:36:28 PM | message detail
hmm.. who wins, Axel or CATS?
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
SecksThaNemesis | Posted 10/4/2006 6:39:21 PM | message detail
I really wish I could be in here more often with you guys, but ExTha is 99% baseball right now, and 1% contest.
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Pride. Power. Pinstripes.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 6:39:34 PM | message detail
Axel. CATS folds like a card against anyone who has a fanbase. Plus, Axel can't be that much weaker than Ansem, if at all.
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Character Battle V Score - 21/22 points
Current Prediction - Kratos (God of War) vs. Ryu (Street Fighter)
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 6:43:04 PM | message detail
Axel. CATS folds like a card against anyone who has a fanbase. Plus, Axel can't be that much weaker than Ansem, if at all.

Yeah. There's no way Axel is weak enough to not land somewhere in between pre-KHII Ansem and CATS.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 6:46:27 PM | message detail
Ryu's first gain in hours. Come on, Kratos, you're so damn close! You're a Spartan, for Pete's sake! Fight!
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/4/2006 6:48:54 PM | message detail
Yes! Stabalize Ryu! Ryu with 57.15% FTW.

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
shadow8021 | Posted 10/4/2006 6:54:30 PM | message detail
Phoenix Wright vs. CATS, who wins the board vote?
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Character Battle Score: 22/22
Today's Pick: Ryu
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 7:29:27 PM | message detail
Destiny Division: Round 1 - Match 24 – (2)Mega Man vs. (7)Axel

Moltar’s Analysis

Mega Man
Game/Series Known From: Mega Man
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 3rd (42.91%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 4th (38.60%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 8th (32.39%) Adjusted Value: 6th (35.99%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2005: 6th (35.55%)
Seed in 2002: 6
Seed in 2003: 2
Seed in 2004: 1
Seed in 2005: 1
Lost in 2002 to Sephiroth in Round 3
Lost in 2003 to Sephiroth in the Final 4
Lost in 2004 to Link in the Final 4
Lost in 2005 to Crono in the Final 4

It’s that robot warrior that refuses to die, Mega Man!

Axel
Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts

Owner of one of the hottest catchphrases of the year.

And the Destiny division ends with another KH character, except this one is on the losing side of things. Axel, who’s gotten his fame from KH: Chain of Memories and KH2, faces Mega Man. Now, Axel may be a fan-favorite, but Mega Man is…Mega Man. You don’t beat Mega Man, heck, you don’t come close to Mega Man unless you are a Contest elite.

If I wouldn’t even take Sora over Mega Man, I wouldn’t dare take Axel over him. I can’t see Axel being worth much either. His fan-favorite status from one of the year’s biggest games may keep him over 20%, but Mega Man is looking good to triple this guy. Now commit THAT to memory!

Er…I mean, now get THAT memorized.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Mega Man will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Mega Man: 78% - Axel: 22%



Ulti’s Analysis

I consider it a moral victory if Axel breaks 20%, just because I love him so much..

GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED? GOT IT MEMORIZED?

Prediction: Mega Man with 75.57%



HM’s Analysis

Mega Man once again gets the opportunity to blow away fodder. Yes, folks, Axel is fodder no matter how much you like him!! I am rather surprised he even managed to get into the contest, but we’ve seen that KH2 has had a definite affect on the nominations judging by Sora’s #1 seed, Kairi’s #2 seed, and Riku’s #3 seed. However, even with that KH2 effect, they’re only 2 – 1 right now as far as wins are concerned and this is looking to make it a dead even 2 – 2!

There’s really not much to go into with this match. Mega Man would beat Sora with absolute ease, so someone like Axel better expect to be destroyed. The only interesting thing about this match will be to see just how big of a blowout this ends up being.

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Mega Man

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Mega Man – 82% ; Axel – 18%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: Mega Man



Yoblazer’s Analysis

I'm forced to keep it really short today. We know Mega Man will win, and we know he is fantastic when it comes to stomping the weak. The question now is whether or not Axel can get enough Kingdom Hearts support to avoid this fate. Mega Man is expected to score 69% on last year's Riku, and while Axel has the same amount of big games as Riku did at that time (one), I expect Axel to be weaker. Even still, he should be able to outperform Conker's 24% in 2005. He certainly deserves to.

My prediction: Mega Man def. Axel (75-25). Got it memorized lmaooooooo
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 7:29:42 PM | message detail
Lopen’s Analysis

I don't like matches like this. Why? Well, for some reason I can't think of anything funny to say about Mega Man or Axel… and really, Axel should be a gold mine! I mean, "Got it memorized?" practically sells itself!

And then, also, this match isn't debatable either. Mega Man's evil, Mega Man blows fools' faces off. And make no mistake about it, Axel's face won't survive. No it won't. But he'll try to escape the blast, he'll try. He's got the new KH2 on his side, and he's huge in that game! Everybody loves Axel! Axel would totally beat Kairi, man… I'm sure of it!

Axel's not out to win, Axel's just out to make himself look good. That's the best he can hope for. And I think he will. I think he'll surprise us all. And this is coming from a man who has Mega Man winning the thing! So fear not, Mega Man fans… if Axel obtains a good %, it's all Axel!

Lopen's prediction: Mega Man with 71.50%



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

MEGA MAN

"I AM MORE THAN JUST A ROBOT!"

Summer 2002 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 3rd Place [42.91%]

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 4th Place [38.60%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 6th Place [35.99%]

Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 7th Place [35.55%]

All right! Straight from the year 20XX (aka 2006), it's my main man, Mega Man! While I've traditionally never been much of a MM guy outside of the Legends games, in the past year or so he and I have become more or less inextricably linked. Maybe it's the fact that I didn't know how to charge Atomic Fire. Maybe it's the fact that he's been tied to my now famous upset over that ditz Samus. But whatever the reason, he's back, and he's ready to show us what perhaps the most consistent pillar of strength in these contests can do! He'll easily dispatch his division, and then lose respectably to Solid Snake in a massive upset. <_<

After which he will go on to beat Samus in an even BIGGER upset! Doesn't make sense, you say? Um, all will be revealed in time...yes...

AXEL

"Commit it to memory."

N/A

Wow. Never expected to see Axel in one of these things, though I'm far from disappointed. You can tell that Kingdom Hearts II had a big impact on the nominations, because Axel is a character that I expect very little from in this thing. His role in Kingdom Hearts II just wasn't that great for me to think he can hang with the likes of Sora, Riku, or even Kairi. I love the guy, but not even the full power of Kingdom Hearts combined would be able to topple THE KING OF SFF.

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Mega Man: N/A

Axel: Kingdom Hearts II (PS2)


Upcoming Releases

Mega Man: N/A

Axel: N/A

Not too much to say here. Just that if Axel performs well on THE KING OF SFF that we're going to have to expect very big things from KH2 as this contest goes on. Look out, Snake, Crono, and Link!!!

Karma Hunter's Vote: Axel. Commit it to memory.

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Mega Man with 77.8%.

I feel like I'm going too high here, but the possibility of Axel just bombing like crazy is too palpable to ignore.

Upset Potential: 0%

GOT IT MEMORIZED?
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 7:30:35 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Heroic Citan

The first thing you may notice is that MM got a 2 seed. Let me assure you; that does not matter. Did that hurt Crono last year? No. Mega Man's first opponent is Axel, a fan-favorite from the Kingdom Hearts series. KH got four representatives in this year. That's insane. This is the work of KHII no doubt. But it doesn't matter here. Mega Man is in no danger of doing bad here. Axel is not going to be as strong as Sora or Riku. However, he isn't going to be nothing either. He'll certainly be stronger than Conker but not by that much.

Final Verdict: Mega Man wins with 73.81%



Crew Consensus: Axel may be a fan-favorite, but it won't get him far against Mega Man. 70% range looks to be good.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 7:32:31 PM | message detail
*puts a torch to Ulti's analysis*
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 7:33:59 PM | message detail
I really hope Lopen gets the point here. Got it memorized?
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 7:41:18 PM | message detail
HOLD ONTO THAT 57% RYU!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 7:42:21 PM | message detail
In the interests of keeping points that don't go to me stretched as thinly as possible, BREAK 43% KRATOS!!!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2006 7:45:10 PM | message detail
You know KH, Mega Man has had ZX and probably a couple of the Battle Network games.

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 7:46:57 PM | message detail
Mega Man always has something. I'm talking about notable releases!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 7:47:03 PM | message detail
When doesn't Mega Man have a game coming out?

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
therealmnm | Posted 10/4/2006 7:48:46 PM | message detail
I just got a horrible thought of the next Mega Man spinoff...

Mega Woman: Starring ROLL
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 7:49:12 PM | message detail
...I missed you not having internet.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
therealmnm | Posted 10/4/2006 7:50:53 PM | message detail
Fine.

*goes away*
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 7:51:27 PM | message detail
now if only that worked with people that sucked!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2006 7:57:05 PM | message detail
Well, looks like the match's finally stable. 3 updates now where Kratos is at 42.94% and Ryu is at 57.06%. 1 hour to go!
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 8:01:04 PM | message detail
see, there's your night vote - a stall. we'd have to wait another hour or so until Ryu started going back up and by then the poll is over. there's no more second night vote.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 8:03:55 PM | message detail
This'll be great for comebacks and things like that. Imagine if Snake/Bowser had been held under the new poll time. Bowser would have been taking off tons of votes up until almost the very end while Snake would have been desperately stalling...sure, you're likely going to have it end up with the same margin, but it would have been a lot more exciting without a 'second night vote' that we all knew was coming.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 8:05:23 PM | message detail
Bowser would've had to chip away at a bigger lead since Snake's first night vote is extended. It wouldn't have changed the excitement much.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 8:06:40 PM | message detail
Ryu's now on the rise!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 8:06:58 PM | message detail
Yeah, like I said, it would've probably ended up at the same margin again...but you wouldn't know that at the time. Whereas back during Snake/Bowser I was never really that worried because Snake was going to recover with the second night vote -- even if Bowser had grabbed the lead it wasn't going to hold.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 8:08:28 PM | message detail
I wouldn't have been worried because Snake's lead would've likely passed well beyond the point of no return by the time the day vote hit.
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Character Battle V Score - 22/23 points
Current Prediction - Mega Man vs. Axel
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 8:10:01 PM | message detail
heh, the closest that match got is at 23:55 EST. I really don't think the poll time matters, the only difference is that the midnight start time is more balanced than before so it generally ends around where it starts. the old poll time was better if you liked voter shifts.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
ChichiriMuyo | Posted 10/4/2006 8:12:49 PM | message detail
Too bad ya didn't actually put REM lyrics at the beginning, Ulti.
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If B8 were any more like the WWE I'd be getting paid for this message.
If you mark someone for flaming/trolling, you probably deserved it.
PortugalTheMann | Posted 10/4/2006 8:17:40 PM | message detail
So how does it feel to be wrong 3 different times about a match in one day KH? How does it feel?

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Portugal. The Man
Cheer Up Emo Kids
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 8:18:47 PM | message detail
I'd say something about your mother, but it's not nearly as itchy.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 8:50:12 PM | message detail
Ryu with 55.44% of the brackets.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 8:52:35 PM | message detail
Jeezus, I'd forgotten how piss-poor of a Prediction Percentage Alucard got in 2005. Granted, it's Alucard, but Kratos should get a good chunk. 54% for Ryu.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 8:54:18 PM | message detail
RandInt (45,70)...huh. 48% for Ryu it is!

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Sign the Petition for more stats in the GameFAQs Contests here:
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Yesmar | Posted 10/4/2006 8:54:52 PM | message detail
This is late, but hopefully this one will actually be posted:

Extreme Scenarios: Mega Man Vs. Axel

Scenario 1


Mega Man with 64.35%

None of the Kingdom Hearts II characters have let us down yet in this contest, and if this trend continues Axel should be able to do pretty damn well for himself also. Axel and Riku are two of the badasses of the series and they could be roughly equal in popularity. This is what a super boosted Riku might be able to get on Mega Man, so that's what I'll say for Axel as well.

Scenario 2

Mega Man with 80.78%

On the other hand, Axel might be even less popular than Ansem. Axel wasn't in the first Kingdom Hearts game, so to some extent he is still playing catch up within the fanbase. Mega Man has also shown a propensity for blowing out fodder, and if Axel ends up being fodder he might be in the position to get embarrassed by the Blue Bomber.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 8:56:01 PM | message detail
Ryu with 61.33% of the brackets.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 8:56:38 PM | message detail
...man, Axel escaping the doubling would blow my mind. That's like Cloud > Link and Snake > Mega Man all assured at the same time!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 8:56:41 PM | message detail
I've got zero idea of what to expect in this match. I think Axel's performance should tell us how much KH2 is going to affect the contest though. if he breaks 30%, I'll be really interested in Squall/Snake.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 8:57:23 PM | message detail
MEGA MAN WITH THE QUADRUPLING!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 8:57:48 PM | message detail
...man, Axel escaping the doubling would blow my mind. That's like Cloud > Link and Snake > Mega Man all assured at the same time!

Can't have all that nonsense happening, Mega Man for the triple!!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Kratos vs. Ryu - Bracket: Ryu - Vote: Ryu (21/22)
cyko | Posted 10/4/2006 8:58:12 PM | message detail
there's a lot of high picks for Megaman here. i mean, Conker managed 24% against Megaman. would you take Conker over Axel? after the way other KH characters performed, i know i wouldn't. i think that Megaman will have trouble tripling Axel.

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
TheCruelAngel | Posted 10/4/2006 8:59:25 PM | message detail
**** quadrupling. Quintupling, babb!
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Warden: Talk! What is SeeD all about!?
Squall: ...Flower.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:16 PM | message detail
Mega Man 80% 8
Axel 20% 2
TOTAL VOTES 10

Woo!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Kratos vs. Ryu - Bracket: Ryu - Vote: Ryu (21/22)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:31 PM | message detail
Some people are feeling a little insecure !!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:32 PM | message detail
48.99% for Ryu, upset AHOY!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Kratos vs. Ryu - Bracket: Ryu - Vote: Ryu (21/22)
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:33 PM | message detail
wow, Haste wins on the random integer!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:51 PM | message detail
KRATOS IS WINNER
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Janus5000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:51 PM | message detail
Mega Man 74.19% 92
Axel 25.81% 32
TOTAL VOTES 124

KRATOS WAS FAVORED OVER RYU AND NOT ALUCARD WHAT THE ****
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
charmander6000 | Posted 10/4/2006 9:00:58 PM | message detail
lol Kratos was the favorite.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush