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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 376

Tequilla Gundam | Posted 10/4/2006 3:55:27 PM | message detail
Who is Gyrating Grandma >_>
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trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 3:56:32 PM | message detail
why would there be something weird going on in Mario / Street Fighter? the match in 2005 between Bowser and Ryu wasn't really all that weird to me at all and Kratos through 2k4 Sora predicts this match relatively well. Ryu hasn't done anything in this match to convince me he's any stronger than his number in 2k5.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/4/2006 3:57:20 PM | message detail
Oh, I thought you were trying to say that Ryu was stronger than his numbers, carry on!

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I'm so hardcore.
therealmnm | Posted 10/4/2006 3:58:56 PM | message detail
It's possible that Ryu overperformed a bit on Sonic. 42% on Snake to 45% on Sonic does seem kind of odd, now that I look at it...
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Vote for Soma Cruz
Currently playing: Grand Theft Auto 3, Castlevania:Curse of Darkness, Mega Man ZX
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/4/2006 3:59:54 PM | message detail
Which is why his 2K5 numbers are perfect.

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I'm so hardcore.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 4:00:29 PM | message detail
Considering Street Fighter's performance in the series contest, I highly doubt this site has all of a sudden stopped caring about its characters and they've dropped off the map.

really, RE only has one game of strength on this site. I don't consider 49% on Resisprite Evil to be that impressive. SF's also got the whole history thing on its side in a matchup like that.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Draco1214 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:01:21 PM | message detail
Street Fighter still ended up ranking among the top 10 series on this site.
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Character Battle V Score - 21/22 points
Current Prediction - Kratos (God of War) vs. Ryu (Street Fighter)
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 4:02:11 PM | message detail
really, RE only has one game of strength on this site.

Yet it nearly matched Mega Man's performance on Final Fantasy, which really shocked me. Of course it can easily be said that MM has no games of strength on this site, but whatever...
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:03:11 PM | message detail
Street Fighter still ended up ranking among the top 10 series on this site.

That means all of nothing to me.

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I'm so hardcore.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 4:03:43 PM | message detail
I've seen people suggest it. I personally think it's a silly idea and that 2005 Ryu is equal to 2006 Ryu..

I'm not sure why you would ever get the idea that Ryu would be much weaker than his 2005 value. Kratos doing this well has nothing to do with Ryu at all, really.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
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trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 4:04:48 PM | message detail
no way do I take SF over Kingdom Hearts or Castlevania. I'd hesitate before I took it over Mega Man X or Metroid as well.

blah, the series contest just feels so useless. being a top ten series doesn't mean you're a top 10-20 game on this site. SF2 isn't that, not even close.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:05:49 PM | message detail

I'm not sure why you would ever get the idea that Ryu would be much weaker than his 2005 value. Kratos doing this well has nothing to do with Ryu at all, really.


I think you read that wrong like me HM. It took me 6 times to figure out what tranny was saying.

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I'm so hardcore.
EvenMyROgetsB7 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:08:37 PM | message detail
Kratos is still making random stabs at winning updates. Maybe 56% isn't even out of the question.

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I'm so hardcore.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 4:10:11 PM | message detail
sorry if I was confusing. I was saying that there's nothing weird about Ryu's 2k5 value and that Ryu 2k5 = Ryu 2k6.

assuming this ends at 57/43 (it might go lower) and Ryu 2k5 = Ryu 2k6, Kratos is at 25.78%, above unadjusted Sora. heh.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 4:13:08 PM | message detail
Oh. Well that makes sense, yeah.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:14:24 PM | message detail
With 6 hours left, Kratos was at 42%. In another hour he shaved off almost 1/3 of a percent...hit that 43%, Kratos!

I didn't realize that Ryu had a new game right around the time of Sonic/Ryu. I have thought about the idea of him over-performing for no apparent reason, since both KOS-MOS and Ryu were lower in value in their surrounding years. Not that it HAS to be the case, of course. Still sounds better than other weird theories. But, I guess it doesn't matter at this point. If anything, Kratos is showing that Ryu is still around 30% on BL, though we obviously don't know for sure at this point.

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therealmnm | Posted 10/4/2006 4:39:03 PM | message detail
You know, I HOPE that Ryu was underrated in 2k5 and he somehow underperformed against Bowser. I don't care what it does for Kratos... I'm looking at Chun-Li > Yuna, baby!
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YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:44:20 PM | message detail
This match has 52 updates remaining. If Kratos simply gains 0.01% per update, he will hit 43% by the match's end. Of course, the occasional big cut will certainly help things along.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
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Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 4:44:32 PM | message detail
...Because that would mean Chun Li would have to over-perform, too, right? That would be nice. Yuna losing to her would be the highlight of the female bracket.

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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 4:45:52 PM | message detail
I've been preaching Chun-Li > Yuna to you goofballs for weeks now!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:03:19 PM | message detail
And there's Ryu's first stall in the last six hours.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 5:11:15 PM | message detail
I'm thinking that Ryu will be able to slow this down enough in the remaining hours to hold onto 57%. He should stall a lot more heading into the night and may even gain in percentage here and there. This second night vote should be more reflective of last night than what we just saw, which was absolute domination by Kratos!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 5:12:35 PM | message detail
I think Kratos knocks some more percentage off here. we really haven't had a second night vote since the poll change. the last hour or so is about all we get.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Osfan | Posted 10/4/2006 5:17:50 PM | message detail
I dunno watching this match really makes me question the possibility of a chun-yuna upset. I mean Square is known for the night vote when would chun have any advantage i mean during the day shes gonna bleed percentage. My votes with Chun but after the series i thought Ryu would be stronger then this or has Kratos just gotten this good?
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"I'll do it with my magic!" Tellah-Final Fantasy 4
Tediz247 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:20:48 PM | message detail
I wonder what kind of damage Kratos will be able to do in the next contest. God of War II is supposedly coming out in February 2007, and it probably won't be delayed beyond the contest.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
therealmnm | Posted 10/4/2006 5:21:21 PM | message detail
Who cares what character has what vote? If Chun-Li is truly stronger than Yuna, it wouldn't matter what part of the day she is stronger in...
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 5:31:30 PM | message detail
I'll probably put him at Alucard level, a bit higher (you know, assuming Alucard hasn't dropped since then and all).

It's certainly impressive, especially considering how new of a character he is. And it's not like he doesn't have a core fanbase -- two 3 seeds in a row, especially in this contest, is great.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:34:13 PM | message detail
Yeah, a 3-seed this contest was impressive...after GoW2 comes out, he might be a 2-seed.

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trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 5:35:31 PM | message detail
I'd love to see a new elite. this contest needs new blood so bad and Kratos is the closest thing we have to it.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Haste_2 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:36:59 PM | message detail
Cid Highwind, Red XIII, Barret (YES!)...they're new blood. :p

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Who Cares? | Posted 10/4/2006 5:37:16 PM | message detail
Okay, Ceej totally needs to put Kratos in a winnable match next year. (Now watch him continue to go up the ladder & set him up against Zero next year! >_>)
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 6 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/4/2006 5:37:22 PM | message detail
Kratos should be a beast after God of War II. If he's able to perform this well with just one game under his belt, he has some insane potential with a second. After GoW2, I would expect to see GoW3 sometime on the PS3, too.

Kratos is probably someone we'll see shoot up through the ranks very quickly. Him reaching Dante's level in the near future isn't impossible, I don't think.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 5:43:59 PM | message detail
by "new blood", I mean a character that's actually new, not just new to the contest. how many characters from 2000 and after do we have? we've got the FF10/KH guys, Master Chief, Dante and Kratos. am I missing anybody? Tommy and CJ I guess, both of which are midcarders at best.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:45:02 PM | message detail
Tingle.

Owned.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 5:47:00 PM | message detail
Tingle never happened.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/4/2006 5:47:24 PM | message detail
You could make an argument for people like Ada Wong and Leon Kennedy being "new". The Boss could also do okay. Other than that, not much.

But it's not like we have a huge amount of characters from every era. Even 16-bit doesn't have that much.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:48:37 PM | message detail
Best serious answer I have at the moment: The Boss.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/4/2006 5:50:28 PM | message detail
Oh, and Raiden, duh. He's potentially stronger than The Boss is.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
trannyscience | Posted 10/4/2006 5:51:54 PM | message detail
all of those characters are from sequels though - God of War is a new franchise. of course the next FF character that comes along is going to be at least a midcarder. same with Zelda or whatever. Kratos, Dante and Master Chief are pretty much it for brand new characters with some strength.

eh, I'm looking into this too much. it doesn't really matter.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 5:52:07 PM | message detail
I reallly have no faith in The Boss right now. She certainly impressed against Celes, but I have a feeling she's just going to collapse against Tifa. Sadly enough.

Kratos is not only a new character, he's from a new game though, which is the really impressive thing. Honestly, we all knew the FF10 characters weren't going to be fodder. KH basically feeds a lot off of that FF fanbase. Tingle is Zelda, The Boss is MGS, etc. So it's basically Master Chief, Dante, and Kratos. And the only real contender of the bunch is Dante.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Dekar TKB | Posted 10/4/2006 5:52:13 PM | message detail
FFXII will probably produce some decent new blood.
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Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 5:52:47 PM | message detail
I'm making a bad habit of being beaten to the punch today. Whatever!
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/4/2006 5:56:28 PM | message detail
And the only real contender of the bunch is Dante.

Dante: I coulda been a contenda!!!















TO FILL YOUR DARK SOUL WITH LIIIIIIIIIIGHT!!!!!!!!!!!!

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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/4/2006 6:08:29 PM | message detail
Unfortunately, we won't even get to see Dante challenging Mega Man or Crono after DMC4, since he's not the main character. Dante in SSBB might allow for some fun, but I view that as somewhat unlikely.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 6:10:15 PM | message detail
Dante may not be the main character of DMC4, but I'd certainly think he'd get a nice boost from it. Hopefully more than, say, DMC2... =/
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Chinballz | Posted 10/4/2006 6:10:38 PM | message detail
Since Vaan will probably be a lock next year, any guesses as to where he might stand? Ashe is also a possibility, but not as likely.
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And that's The Word.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/4/2006 6:11:51 PM | message detail
I don't have a clue concerning Vaan or any of the FFXII characters. Based on what I've heard, I'm not even sure who's going to be the strongest of the bunch.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/4/2006 6:13:38 PM | message detail
From what I've seen, Vaan will probably be another Tidus.

Let's just hope there's a silent badass that's actually got redeeming qualities somewhere in the cast.

lol ffx cast excluding auron

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/4/2006 6:33:18 PM | message detail
Kratos is only 0.11% away from 43% with 2 1/2 hours to go! The second night vote should be coming soon. Will we see the %'s stablize just under 43 or will Kratos make it?
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
charmander6000 | Posted 10/4/2006 6:35:19 PM | message detail
Match XXIV: (2) Mega Man vs. (7) Axel

Contest History

Mega Man


Summer 2002
Defeated Ms. Pac-Man, 92.30% - 7.70%
Defeated Serious Sam, 91.84% - 8.16%
Lost to Sephiroth, 49.49% - 50.51%
Ranked: 3rd

Summer 2003
Defeated Mr. Resetti, 88.96% - 11.04%
Defeated Zelda, 60.75% - 39.25%
Defeated Tommy Vercetti, 66.86% - 33.14%
Defeated Solid Snake, 53.50% - 46.50%
Lost to Sephiroth, 38.82% - 61.18%
Ranked: 4th

Summer 2004
Defeated Earthworm Jim, 82.98% - 17.02%
Defeated Tidus, 64.78% - 35.22%
Defeated Zero, 56.01% - 43.99%
Defeated Solid Snake, 57.19% - 42.81%
Lost to Link, 32.39% - 67.61%
Ranked: 8th

Summer 2005
Defeated Conker, 76.02% - 23.98%
Defeated Leon S. Kennedy, 64.56% - 35.44%
Defeated Yoshi, 68.08% - 31.92%
Defeated Sonic the Hedgehog, 50.37% - 49.63%
Lost to Crono, 48.65% - 51.35%
Ranked: 6th

Axel

No Previous Contest Matches

Analysis:

Mega Man is from the Mega Man series. He is a member of the noble 9 and like the other members that are in it Mega Man also has a good chance at taking the male side of the bracket. Axel is from the Kingdom Hearts series. He is the most popular member of Organization XIII and is a big fan favorite among Kingdom Hearts fans.

When the bracket was first released I was surprised to see that Axel made the bracket, especially when only 32 males could have made it. Like all first round matches against a noble 9 Mega Man shouldn’t have too much of a hard time beating Axel, but where does Axel rank. By looking at the board you can tell that he is a fan favorite among fans of Kingdom Hearts and would probably be able to beat Ansem and Kairi in a favorite poll, but that doesn’t mean he would be stronger than them indirectly. In the end Kairi will probably out rank Axel unless there some SFF between Rikku and Kairi; as for Ansem Axel might be able to outrank him.

I’m expecting Axel to do better than Conker, but it probably won’t be that much better. I think Mega Man has the power to triple Axel though he should be able to break 70% on him.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Mega Man over Axel

charmander6000’s Prediction: Mega Man wins, 75.06% - 24.94%

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