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Contest Stats and Discussion- Part 375

charmander6000 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:02:10 PM | message detail
O_O at prediction percent.
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:01 PM | message detail
lower seed + Objection + who the hell is Gordon Freeman? = 56%. it's not that surprising, really.

I'd say it's more just lower seed, I mean look at how hard Yoshi got screwed with bracket support. I doubt anyone knows who PW is but not GF... actually I don't, but you'd think there's many more for the exact opposite.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:06 PM | message detail
XD

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:19 PM | message detail
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=11&topic=30914037

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
Dekar TKB | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:26 PM | message detail
...A Captain Falcon pick on the leaderboard? YES!
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Chief of Patrol in Sir Chris' police force DA!
Captain Falcon for Sc2k6! www.rpgdl.com
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:42 PM | message detail
I'd have never heard of Gordon Freeman if I never came to Board 8.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:03:53 PM | message detail
We already talked about your silly question Ulti!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:04:13 PM | message detail
I'd have never heard of Gordon Freeman if I never came to Board 8.

Think you'd hear about PW?

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
HaRRicH | Posted 10/3/2006 9:04:17 PM | message detail
PW apparently caused lots more hell than we expected...and that's great for my bracket.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2006 9:04:58 PM | message detail
Depending on how Ganny/Vincent is split, this may be the biggest bracket upset in the first round next to Terra/Kerrigan....

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
MegatokyoEd | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:09 PM | message detail
Hasn't Gordon been the favorite in every single match involving him? Gordon got like the same percent there that he had in people taking him over Leon.
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Demyx > Axel
Z1mZum owned me in the Guru Contest with his mad skills!
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:11 PM | message detail
Think you'd hear about PW?

I knew who PW was before the game came out. I'm sure I'm unique here, but hey.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:15 PM | message detail
Kratos 38.04% 544
Ryu 61.96% 886
TOTAL VOTES 1430

KRATOS NEARLY AT 40%, BABY!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:18 PM | message detail
Christ, for a contest that the cookie-cutter has just been breezing through, perfects are dropping like flies.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:18 PM | message detail
Another match where the percentages end on xx.80 and xx.20!! >___>
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caps
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:37 PM | message detail
Oh wait, forgot about Zero/Luigi

TuRtLe
~~~
I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:39 PM | message detail
Whoa.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:46 PM | message detail

I knew who PW was before the game came out. I'm sure I'm unique here, but hey.


Well like I said, there would be some, but much more in the other direction!

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2006 9:05:59 PM | message detail
Great recovery by Kratos.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
The n00b Avenger | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:08 PM | message detail
Already down to 62%?

Wow, nice job Kra-man
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ertyu and VeghEsther are truly proof that there is much about this world we still do not understand.
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:20 PM | message detail
oh damn, Kratos looks really good here. with Ryu's inevitable day vote collapse, this could be interesting.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Who Cares? | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:25 PM | message detail
WOW, talk about a 'Board Vote' for Ryu!
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 6 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Janus5000 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:29 PM | message detail
...Did Ryu just fall almost as badly as Wrighto? Wow.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:36 PM | message detail
57% for me is looking good.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Ngamer64 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:52 PM | message detail
Jeez, what a massive % turnaround. Shoot, my 62% prediction was looking so good there for those 4 minutes...

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thengamer.com/xstats - "lol x-stats," The Contest Simulator
thengamer.com/gamefaqs - The Contest Archives
Haste_2 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:06:58 PM | message detail
Wow...I wasn't expecting that many to pick Phoenix. I guess it's partly bracket-makers taking the higher seed because they didn't know either, partly going with the better sounding name (I'm serious here, I took Tina over Gordon back in 2K2 because of her name) for the same reason, and partly more people catching on to GFNW. A nice number of perfects fell, as well.

o_O Holy...Ryu went down to 62%. Kratos is gonna do better against Ryu than he did against Alucard.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:07:07 PM | message detail
Kratos upsetting here would be the best thing ever!


And, incidentally, Ryu pulled in only 58.88% of the vote at the 5 minute update!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:07:15 PM | message detail
that was 58% for Ryu for those four minutes. this could get down to 54 or so percent -- just like 2k2 Dante!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:07:45 PM | message detail
Kratos is gonna do better against Ryu than he did against Alucard.

It helps that his game sold 600,000 copies between 2005 and 2006!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2006 9:08:05 PM | message detail
I prefer Kratos a lot to Ryu, and he doesn't get enough respect on this board...but I'd like to keep my perfect until Ganondorf/Vincent, plz.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:09:04 PM | message detail
Good thing Ceej didn't put PoP vs. Kratos... I would have cried.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/3/2006 9:09:57 PM | message detail
This match shows that Sora would beat Ryu and that his 2k5 value is underrated by like 600%!
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caps
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:10:03 PM | message detail
And what's this talk of upset? Ryu increased his lead by 200 votes.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
YoAriel33 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:10:45 PM | message detail
I was debating PoP/Kratos for a while. Somewhere along the line, for some reason, I just realized that Prince would collapse and Kratos would take it easily.

Oh, and a nice cut by the God of War star.
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The Little Mermaid 2-Disc Platinum Edition DVD
Coming October 3, 2006
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:10:52 PM | message detail
this match should have a Magus/Knuckles-like swing. I highly doubt he'll come back enough to do it, but this should drop a few percentage points still before it stabilizes and the day vote will certainly go Kratos's way.
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Haste_2 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:10:53 PM | message detail
Aw...well, pretty much all hope of an upset is dashed now.

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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:11:05 PM | message detail
And what's this talk of upset? Ryu increased his lead by 200 votes.

I was just saying that it would be so incredibly awesome for it to happen. But given Ryu's horrible day vote, this should be pretty good for Kratos.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:11:10 PM | message detail
This match shows that Sora would beat Ryu and that his 2k5 value is underrated by like 600%!

I actually used Ryu vs. Sora 2K5 to come up with my prediction for this match.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2006 9:12:26 PM | message detail
I actually used Ryu vs. Sora 2K5 to come up with my prediction for this match.

Yeah, and it'll be off.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:12:33 PM | message detail
And Kratos should be even stronger after God of War II hits in Spring 2007. He'll be going places in these contests!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:12:35 PM | message detail
I always said that Kratos was POP's ceiling. I always thought Kratos was at about 25% or so on BL. this is more Kratos impressing than Ryu flopping to me.

..or it could be more Dream Division weirdness with Bowser. who knows!


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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Haste_2 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:13:29 PM | message detail
Maybe this is a sign that Bowser was overrated, and that even 30% on BL was too high for Ryu!

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Team Rocket Elite | Posted 10/3/2006 9:13:35 PM | message detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
21-----990------57.1717172
20-----3716-----52.6641550
19-----6412-----60.3711790
18-----7575-----60.8448845
17-----7173-----60.3931409
16-----5909-----57.5731934
15-----4379-----54.5558347
14-----2698-----49.9258710
13-----1663-----48.5267589
12-----960------42.1875000
11-----490------40.8163265
10-----224------43.7500000
9------106------37.7358491
8------42-------38.0952381
7------17-------52.9411765
6------10-------50.0000000
5------23-------34.7826087
4------30-------50.0000000
3------51-------64.7058824
2------64-------56.2500000
1------82-------65.8536585
0------32-------34.3750000

Overall prediction percentage: 56.77%

As some people prediction, the fall of GFNW also brought about the fall of many perfects. Oddly enough the -1s were also hit and ended up worse than the perfects. The prediction percentage impoves for the -2s but it is the -3s that do the best... unless you count the 1 and 3 brackets. Considering how few are left, we lost a fair number of zero brackets today. Will they hold out for 10 more rounds and the Battle Royale?

25 people fell off the top 50 today. Vaporeon13N, FAHtastic, FFaddict1313, RockMFR, Jericoholic913, takame44, sadpanda00, talonx66, easycheese124, uWIsHuWErEcOOL, MrMinderbinder, WhitePanther6, Draco1214, DarkLazarus, al494, DarthChocolate, jun_ansem62386, Rparnel, Animawarrior, Bomb319, WilhuffTarkin, Fuzzycows5157, JollyWaffle, jsm158 and AppleKidPlant, who had Phoenix Wright winning it all, put their faith in GFNW but it didn't come through. Perhaps they were hoping that if they were wrong it wouldn't matter because the universe imploded. Unfortunately for them in the new universe created after the implosion, we still remember the events of the previous one. =D

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I got pwnt by Z1mZum in the July 2006 Guru Contest.
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Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:14:08 PM | message detail
Eh, there is a perfectly good explanation for why Kratos would perform this well without even mentioning the possibility of someone being overrated.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HoorayProxies | Posted 10/3/2006 9:14:17 PM | message detail

Yeah, and it'll be off.


Where do you expect Kratos to finish?

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
mmmApplesauce | Posted 10/3/2006 9:15:33 PM | message detail
Maybe this is a sign that Bowser was overrated, and that even 30% on BL was too high for Ryu!

Or Kratos being underrated about 5%. Actually more like 3% + 2% boost for GoW selling 600k more. That's how far I adjusted him up, and kept Ryu at his 2K5 value, because I think his match with Bowser underrated him, but then Bowser/Snake put him right back on line.

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Hooray Beer, Hooray Proxies!
trannyscience | Posted 10/3/2006 9:16:01 PM | message detail
ah damn, Ryu rebounded there. let's hope it's just a hiccup for Kratos to get over 40%!
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xyzzy
"12 percent of those who liked opera had experimented with magic mushrooms." - Reuters
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/3/2006 9:16:45 PM | message detail
Where do you expect Kratos to finish?

55-45, maybe closer at this preliminary stage. Ryu's day vote just sucks.
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*kills self*
Commit it to memory.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/3/2006 9:17:15 PM | message detail
Ryu should probably hang around 60 - 61% for tonight considering he's got a pretty strong night vote, then Kratos brings this down to around 55 - 56% with the day vote and it ends around there. A very respectable performance for Kratos here -- and he would have been great against someone just a little weaker.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 10/3/2006 9:17:21 PM | message detail
...*looks at the leaderboard*

Haha, the universe imploding was, in reality, all part of The Plan.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4