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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 373

Who Cares? | Posted 10/1/2006 7:56:32 PM | message detail
With 100% confidence?...probably Marle.
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Chun-Li's Road to the Female Final Four: vs Lara Croft (October 21th) One down, two to go!
*Just 9 days until Tales of the Abyss*
Tediz247 | Posted 10/1/2006 7:56:54 PM | message detail
I'd take Tingle over Phoenix Wright. Imagine the board if that one happened though... worse than Squall/Luigi?
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through to the end.
ZSB [aX]
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:00:19 PM | message detail
QUICK WITHOUT THINKING: who would be the strongest character in the bracket that you would take Tingle if he faced them?

Umm...I'm not sure. I know I would take him over a lot of fodderific characters.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 8:11:52 PM | message detail
Destiny Division: Round 1 - Match 21 – (1)Sora vs. (8)Tingle

Moltar’s Analysis

Sora
Game/Series Known From: Kingdom Hearts
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 39th (21.88%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 13th (26.97%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2005: 30th (23.54%)
Seed in 2003: 6
Seed in 2004: 6
Seed in 2005: 2
Lost in 2003 to Aeris in Round 1
Lost in 2004 to Samus in Round 3
Lost in 2005 to Solid Snake in Round 3

Sora a 1-seed? What kind of shenanigans is this?!

Tingle
Game/Series Known From: Legend of Zelda

Tingle in a Contest? What kind of shenanigans is this?!

Well, since I’m not a funny guy, I’ll leave the Tingle jokes up to the other guys. All I need to add is that it should have been someone like Snake facing Tingle. I mean, could Snake 90% the bastard-elf we all love to hate? I’m afraid we’ll never know.

Instead, Tingle catches a break and instead faces Sora, who couldn’t blow-out a Kairi-shaped balloon. So yeah, now we’ll be seeing Tingle maybe avoid the tripling, leading to “ZOMG TINGLE IZ THE STRAWNG!1!!1” Oh well, life goes on.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Sora will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Sora: 75% - Tingle: 25%



Ulti’s Analysis

I'm not going to dignify THIS crap with a response either.

Prediction: Sora with 82.99%



HM’s Analysis

The most hated Zelda character ever? Perhaps~! One of the weakest characters to ever enter into a contest? Hell no! That’s right, folks, Tingle is going to be worth something here! Sora may be coming off of Kingdom Hearts II with a nice boost, but that won’t stop Tingle from representing some of that awesome Zelda strength by avoiding a tripling here!

The fact that Tingle even made it into the contest is surprising enough. I do believe it’s because of the nominations being put up on the day of LoZ/FF in the Series Contest. But will the Zelda fanbase support him? If only for a joke, I think so. I don’t think Tingle will end up being really bad fodder – he’d destroy the likes of Alyx, Carmen Sandiego, Yuri, and Jade. I think with a combination of joke votes, some Zelda support, and Sora not being someone who has really proven to be a big blowout guy will ultimately result in Tingle being able to pull a bit above 25%.

Remember – all of you – vote Tingle for great justice !!

Aitch Emm’s Bracket: Sora

Aitch Emm’s Prediction: Sora – 74% ; Tingle – 26%

Aitch Emm’s Vote: TINGLE FOR LIFE!



Yoblazer’s Analysis

I haven't seen it mentioned yet, but it's interesting to note that other than Jesus... err, CATS, every 8 seed is a contest rookie. It explains why at least a few of the 1/8 matches have not gone quite as expected, and it also explains why we aren't really using these surprising results to gauge future matches. These characters are new. We have no idea how strong or weak they are, so for now, we're just sitting back and enjoying the ride.

And, of course, this is THE 1/8 match to sit back and enjoy. Here we have not only a 1 seed who is known for underperforming against fodder, but an 8 seed who may as well be the biggest question mark in contest history. I rarely resort to insulting others when it comes to contest debate, but if you ABSOLUTELY KNOW WITHOUT A SHADOW OF A DOUBT that Tingle is going to bomb to hell, or if you ABSOLUTELY KNOW WITHOUT A SHADOW OF A DOUBT that Tingle is going to overperform because of his Zelda status, then I'm sorry, but you're a fool. You know as much as we all do, which, in this case, is nothing.
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 8:12:08 PM | message detail
Tingle's range is staggering. He might get anti-voted by the Zelda fanbase enough to allow Sora to creep into the low or even mid-80's. Conversely, those crazy Zelda fans (the same ones who beat Final Fantasy a few months ago and pushed Zelda to one of the most impressive contest wins ever a few days ago) might rally behind him enough so that he actually breaks 30%. Sound crazy? Why the hell is it? If Agent 47 can come within inches of 30% against Sora, why can't someone who has even a fraction of the Zelda fanbase on his side? If Nidoran F can get jokes votes, why can't Tingle? Don't get me wrong; Sora will be stronger this year, but he's nothing in the face of the Zelda fanbase, and right now that fanbase has the potential to push a Deku Stick to 30% on anyone.

In my opinion, a predictor can do one of three things: he can bank on Tingle to draw enough Zelda and joke support to shock everyone, he can bank on Tingle to get anti-voted by everyone and humiliate himself, or he can bank on the result to end up somewhere in the middle. I'm gonna take a risk and bank on at least some of the Zelda faithful to get behind one of their own, no matter how damn pathetic he is.

My prediction: Sora def. Tingle (70-30)

By the way, if I'm not the low man today, I'll probably bust a gasket.



Lopen’s Analysis

Oh, haha… this match is so funny. Oh yeah… look at Tingle, the ultimate joke character. Oh man… haha. **** Tingle! **** that ****** ****** joke 8 seed for taking Raiden's *** **** ****** ******* place. *******! DIE!

Lopen's Prediction: SORA WINS WITH 100% OF THE VOTE.



KH’s Analysis

lol x-stats history

SORA

"I know now I don't need the Keyblade. I've got a better weapon. My heart."

Summer 2003 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 39th Place [21.17%]

Summer 2004 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 21st Place [26.97% ]
Summer 2005 Contest
Extrapolated Strength --- 32nd Place [23.54% ]

Arguably the biggest oddball we've seen in these contests is back, and he's primed to be better than ever! Yes, it's the somewhat-love-him-or-hate him protagonist of Kingdom Hearts, Sora! Naturally, KH2 is still big here, and Sora's personality is much more likable than it was in the first game. It'll be nearly impossible for us to gauge his boost correctly...but sadly for him, his path is utterly predictable. I don't believe I've ever seen such a waste of a character. He'll be looking to impress against Mega Man, though, and try to redeem his disappointing finish last year. WOO SORA
TINGLE

"Tingle! Tingle! Kooloo-limpah! Become...READABLE!"

N/A

Oh Lord, how did Tingle get into the contest? I mean, lol ZeldaFAQs isn't even appropriate here...getting another Zelda character would be perfectly understandable, especially with the female side. But instead of Epona, Malon, Majora's Mask, Saria, Navi, Tatl, Tael, Darunia, Ruto, Impa, Nabooru, Agahnim, Twinrova, Happy Shop Mask Dude or Running Man...you boneheads got Tingle into the contest? That's not nominating Zelda, that's nominating the worst possible thing from Zelda ever. I hate Tingle, hate everyone who nommed him, hate everyone who votes for him, and possibly hate myself.

...

WOO TINGLE

Notable Releases Since Last Appearance

Sora: Kingdom Hearts 2 (PS2)
Tingle: N/A

Upcoming Releases

Sora: N/A
Tingle: N/A

Giving a short response would be overdone and cliche at this point, I think.

...boobs.

Karma Hunter's Vote: Not Tingle

Karma Hunter's Krazy Prediction: Sora with 76.58%.

If there is any God or justice in this world, Tingle will get tripled. So I'm expecting him to break 35%, naturally, but this is my hopeful prediction.

Upset Potential: 0%

DIE TINGLE DIE
Dunkeroo23 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:12:35 PM | message detail
hopefully the perfects will be under 1000 tonight
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 8:12:55 PM | message detail
Guest’s Analysis - Lady_Ashe

Aha! We're in the male bracket, y'know. A magical place where matches are exciting, and no match shows this better than this one. It is Sora vs... Tingle. Hmm, maybe I was thinking of the match after this one. Oh well.

First off we have the hero of the Kingdom Hearts series, Sora! What is there to say about Sora? Oh, not much. I mean, he hasn't been all that impressive in previous competitions. Sure, he isn't fodder, but he hasn't done anything amazing. Wait, what's this you say? Kingdom Hearts 2 is out, and Kairi, a non-playable character who spends most of her time being captured managed to beat Claire? Claire isn't anything special, but for Kairi to show any amount of strength at all, either there is a huge KH2 boost or she scored big time on the loli factor. I'm a little bit inclined to go with the former. What does this mean for our hero? It means that he will most likely move up a fair amount in terms of strength. If you don't believe me, take a look at his seeding.


But enough about Sora. Let's find out who he is up against, shall we? It is none other than the beloved map provider in so many Zelda games, Tingle! Wait, nobody likes him and he can give Navi a good run for her money on most annoying Zelda character. Well, he stars in his own game, so that has got to be worth something. Nah, I can't see him being anything but fodder. He is from the Legend of Zelda series though, so NintendoFAQs may give him a few votes.

Well, Sora has probably receivied a large KH2 boost, and Tingle is hated by a large amount of people who have played the games that he is in. Due to these factors, I am calling for this to be a blowout, and the only thing that is stopping me from calling this a quadrupling is that the contest is being held on NintendoFAQs.

Sora wins with 78.24%. I have a feeling this will be off from the rest of the crew, but I'm going with it all the same.

Oh, and as I depart, I have one last thing to say to all of you...

Tingle-Tingle, Kooloo-Limpah!



Crew Consensus: Haw haw, Sora can't blow out anything, not even Tingle!
Big Bob | Posted 10/1/2006 8:15:13 PM | message detail
A bit of analysis for the upcoming Yoshi/Dante:

In 2003 Dante got 77% on Ryo Hazuki.
In 2004 Yoshi got 76% on Ryo Hazuki.

That's not a very big difference. Since then Dante has gotten DMC3 and DMC3SE. Yoshi has gotten squat, but there was a site-wide Nintendo boost last year. So it's still either one's call.
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My bracket is so screwed.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2006 8:20:47 PM | message detail
lol lopen

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:21:27 PM | message detail
I hope Lopen gets the point. <_<
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Character Battle V Score - 20/20 points
Current Prediction - Sora vs. Tingle
UltimaterializerX | Posted 10/1/2006 8:23:07 PM | message detail
Lopen's got the right idea.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
Now Playing: Disgaea 2, KH:COM (Sora), FE8, Castlevania: LoI
LordOfDabu | Posted 10/1/2006 8:23:07 PM | message detail
Those percentages for Sora all seem low to me. I would think Tingle would be absolutely hated. It'll be interesting to see how much franchise voting effects things, as Tingle is probably the best example of such a factor.
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"Professor Planet, mathematical hero. Going to take epsilon down to zero."
Math board: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=576216
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2006 8:28:03 PM | message detail
I agree with Dabu. I can't see Sora not breaking 80%.

Zelda fans hate Tingle. And while those same people also hate Sora, they'll either abstain or vote for Sora.

Add to that the Kingdom Hearts fanbase and you have a nice blowout <_<

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/1/2006 8:28:04 PM | message detail
"I know now I don't need the Keyblade. I've got a better weapon. My heart."

"Tingle! Tingle! Kooloo-limpah! Become...READABLE!"


How can Sora have a worse quote than Tingle? How?
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
AmazingKirby | Posted 10/1/2006 8:30:33 PM | message detail
Lopen's Prediction: SORA WINS WITH 100% OF THE VOTE.


Yeah, whoo!

Also, Tingle over Daisy? Definitely? Excuse me while I say LOL.
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caps
cyko | Posted 10/1/2006 8:32:06 PM | message detail
i like both Karma's and Lopen's analyses. Tingle may actually be my most hated video game character of all time. and i hate a lot of characters. i really hope Sora breaks 85% on that stupid man-fairy!!

DIE TINGLE DIE!!!!

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i have officially been Z1mZum'D in the guru contest.
Vincent Valentine to win the Blast Division!!
Aprosenf | Posted 10/1/2006 8:45:18 PM | message detail
Go Lopen!
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 8:46:29 PM | message detail
Bah, you all need to get off the Hit or Miss Lopen train and jump on mine!
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs. Tingle - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (19/20)
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/1/2006 8:47:21 PM | message detail
"i like both Karma's and Lopen's analyses. Tingle may actually be my most hated video game character of all time. and i hate a lot of characters."


Quick guys. Tingle vs Navi. Who wins?

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Can't think of a good sig.
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2006 8:47:46 PM | message detail
Whoever wins, we lose.
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Commit it to memory.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:48:45 PM | message detail
I like Navi!

Navi beats that chump.
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:49:27 PM | message detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:49:47 PM | message detail
Don't you also like Kairi?

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Aprosenf | Posted 10/1/2006 8:50:20 PM | message detail
Tingle beats Navi 1-0 in which everybody refuses to vote except for one crazy person.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:50:48 PM | message detail
And Tingle would so beat Navi.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2006 8:51:08 PM | message detail
Tingle beats Navi 1-0 in which everybody refuses to vote except for one crazy person.

DAMN YOU HEROIC MARIO!
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Commit it to memory.
Mac Arrowny | Posted 10/1/2006 8:51:46 PM | message detail
I like Navi a lot more than I like Tingle, and OoT > WW, so Navi wins.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
Gaddswell | Posted 10/1/2006 8:51:52 PM | message detail
I'd actually vote Tingle over Navi because Tingle is more prominent.
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Vote Right! Phoenix Wright!
charmander6000 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:52:34 PM | message detail
Tingle beats Navi 1-0 in which everybody refuses to vote except for one crazy person.

So I'm the only one that'll vote?
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"I was trying to escape. Obviously, it didn't work." - President Bush
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2006 8:52:39 PM | message detail
I'd actually vote Tingle over Navi because Tingle is more prominent.

That's a minus, not a plus!
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Commit it to memory.
Janus5000 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:52:39 PM | message detail
Quick guys. Tingle vs Navi. Who wins?

Kaepora.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:53:28 PM | message detail
Don't be hating on Tingle just because he robbed you of your rupees because he's the only one who could make the map readable! The man is a genius!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Blade Of Evils Bane | Posted 10/1/2006 8:53:41 PM | message detail
"I like Navi a lot more than I like Tingle, and OoT > WW, so Navi wins."


Tingle was actually originally from Majoras Mask. >_>

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Can't think of a good sig.
FastFalcon05 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:53:53 PM | message detail
Don't you also like Kairi?

It's quite possible. Don't forget Epona while we're at it.

Kaira > Epona > Navi >>>>>Tingle >>>> Tatl Tael >> Skull Kid
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Revenge is a dish best served by Z1mZum in the 2k6 Series Guru Contest.
Draco1214 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:53:54 PM | message detail
Quick guys. Tingle vs Navi. Who wins?

The universe would implode due to all the suck in that match.

And, yeah, I agree with Janus. Kaepora totally owns those lamers.
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Character Battle V Score - 20/20 points
Current Prediction - Sora vs. Tingle
redrocket | Posted 10/1/2006 8:54:30 PM | message detail
Quick guys. Tingle vs Navi. Who wins?

Satan
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:54:42 PM | message detail
Tingle also has his own game, which is actually supposed to be pretty good.


Navi loses hard!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Karma Hunter | Posted 10/1/2006 8:54:49 PM | message detail
Don't be hating on Tingle just because he robbed you of your rupees because he's the only one who could make the map readable! The man is a genius!

Pfft, all Tingle did was show Link he was holding the map upside down. -_-
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Commit it to memory.
BlAcK TuRtLe | Posted 10/1/2006 8:55:45 PM | message detail
I HATE HATE HATE Kaepora. HE JUST WON'T SHUT THE **** UP AND MIND HIS OWN GODDAMN BUSINESS!!!!!!!!!111111111

TuRtLe
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I used my brain and statistics to make my bracket. Karma Hunter used MGS fanboyism. KH won. Commit it to memory.
Yesmar | Posted 10/1/2006 8:57:03 PM | message detail
I didn't do this yesterday because I was A) Tired from doing stuff all day and B) It's not like there was that much variance for today's match anyway.

Extreme Scenarios: Sora Vs. Tingle

Scenario 1:


Sora with 60.00%

Honestly, I did the math and this is what it came out to. hSure, a lot of people think Snake overperformed on Sora for a variety of reasons, but what if he didn't? It's also possible that Kingdom Hearts II didn't do that much for Sora. Sure it might have given him a little boost, but it's not like he was introduced to a brand new demographic. Combine that with the fact that GameFAQS loves Zelda and Tingle could possibly break the fodder line with his Zelda reputation alone and you have this result.

Scenario 2:

Sora with 86.12%

However, there is also a very real possibility that Snake overperformed on Sora due to SFF or the pic factor depending on who you ask. Assuming that this discrepancy hides any possible Chain of Memories increase and you've got a 2005 Sora that's possibly more popular than his 2004 self. Also keep in mind that to most people Sora's image in Kingdom Hearts II is much cooler and more appealing than his previous incarnation. This combined with Kingdom Hearts II's huge popularity on GameFAQS, as shown by Kairi and Riku in this contest, could give Sora a MASSIVE boost this year. On the flip side, Tingle might be from a game with a huge fanbase, but it's also a fanbase that hates him. Are there any Tingle fans at all? Add in an extra percent for good measure and we have a potential blowout in store.
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Z1mZum totally owned me in the July 2006 Guru Contest
The Funky Chickens in Trivia XVIII
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 8:57:47 PM | message detail
Pfft, all Tingle did was show Link he was holding the map upside down.

This does not take away from Tingle being a genius!!


The 35 year old wanna-be fairy knows how to get rich.

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
HaRRicH | Posted 10/1/2006 8:59:08 PM | message detail
Dante with 81.12% of the brackets.
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Z1mZum performed a hit and run on me in the Guru Contest.
It still hurts to be rear-ended like that.....
Draco1214 | Posted 10/1/2006 8:59:37 PM | message detail
Dante with 80% of the brackets.
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Character Battle V Score - 20/20 points
Current Prediction - Sora vs. Tingle
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 9:00:13 PM | message detail
Sora 76.19% 16
Tingle 28.57% 6
TOTAL VOTES 21

Hmm...
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs. Tingle - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (19/20)
Master Moltar | Posted 10/1/2006 9:00:28 PM | message detail
78.81% for Dante
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Moltar Status: Feeling good and hot-blooded.
Sora vs. Tingle - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (19/20)
Janus5000 | Posted 10/1/2006 9:00:30 PM | message detail
Sora 76.19% 16
Tingle 28.57% 6
TOTAL VOTES 21

Nice.
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 9:00:40 PM | message detail
Sora 69.47% 132
Tingle 30.53% 58
TOTAL VOTES 190

SORA UNDER 70%!!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg
Janus5000 | Posted 10/1/2006 9:01:30 PM | message detail
Sora 72.93% 334
Tingle 27.07% 124
TOTAL VOTES 458

SORA OVER 70%!
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"Those who cast the vote decide nothing. Those who count the vote decide everything."
http://www.scorehero.com/scores.php?user=2916&diff=4
Gaddswell | Posted 10/1/2006 9:02:05 PM | message detail
Sora 67.62% 71
Tingle 32.38% 34
TOTAL VOTES 105
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By the time we localize the programs, kids don’t even know they’re from Japan any more. - 4Kids CEO Al Kahn
Vote Right! Phoenix Wright!
Heroic Mario | Posted 10/1/2006 9:02:10 PM | message detail
That was clearly the product of bracket voters and Board 8 Tingle hate!

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"Master using it and you can have this."
http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/160/masterjg3.jpg